Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price showed a weak performance this week, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas at 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The decline in egg prices has stimulated an increase in the willingness of some farmers to cull chickens, and the phenomenon of eggs entering cold storage has increased, slowing down the decline in egg prices [4]. - The supply of eggs is expected to remain high. In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 is expected to be around 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [8]. - The cost of egg production decreased slightly this week. Although the feed cost increased slightly, the decline in soybean meal prices led to a decrease in the overall cost of egg production. However, due to the decline in egg prices, the egg - farming profit continued to be in the red [11]. - The demand for eggs weakened. After the "6.18" promotion ended, the sales volume in the selling areas decreased, and the market inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase seasonally next week [14]. - In terms of trading strategies, the near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts [15]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The low egg prices led to increased losses for farmers, accelerating the culling of old hens. The chicken -苗 market was in a mess, with the utilization rate of hatching eggs at about 70% - 80%, and the average price of young chickens was 16.89 yuan/head, remaining stable [4]. - **Supply Analysis** - The national laying - hen inventory in May was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of chicken -苗 in sample enterprises in May was 46.985 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of June 13 was 20.52 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 512 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [8]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of June 13, the corn price was around 2405 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2994 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2582 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs. The egg - farming profit continued to be in the red, with the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs at - 0.47 yuan/jin as of June 12, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week, and the expected egg - farming profit on June 13 at 15.5 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.09 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - **Demand Analysis** - Affected by the "6.18" promotion, the market sales volume was okay at first, but then the sales volume in the selling areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The national egg market inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to increase seasonally next week. The vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index declined slightly [14]. - **Trading Strategy** - The near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - The data shows the historical and predicted data of the laying - hen inventory and chicken -苗 replenishment volume [8]. - **Culling Situation** - The data shows the historical data of the weekly culling volume of laying hens [8]. - **Egg - Farming Situation** - It includes the culling age of laying hens and the average price of chicken -苗 in the main producing areas [22]. - **Spread and Basis** - The data shows the historical data of the basis and spreads of different contracts, such as the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc. [24][25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current egg in - production inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, with the supply side being relatively loose. The demand side is in the off - season, with general overall demand and a dominant market wait - and - see sentiment. However, recent macro risks have increased, and there is an expected rise in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3747, up 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3117, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, down 18. For spreads, 01 - 05 was 630, up 15; 05 - 09 was - 761, up 5; 09 - 01 was 131, down 20. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 05 egg/bean粕 changed slightly [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The average price of culled chickens was 4.92 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices continued to show a mixed trend of rises and stability. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui were stable [6]. - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In March, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.318 billion, an increase of 0.012 billion from the previous month and a 6.8% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the inventory from March to June 2025 will be approximately 1.321 billion, 1.324 billion, 1.329 billion, and 1.337 billion respectively [7]. - **Chicken Culling**: From April 4th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 1889, a 5.4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age on April 3rd was 537 days, 1 day less than the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of April 3rd, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 9117 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 3rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.01 days, and in the circulation link was 1.28 days, a decrease of 0.06 days [7]. - **Profit**: As of April 3rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.05 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous week. On April 4th, the expected profit per laying hen was 14.67 yuan/feather, a decrease of 4.56 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.3 Trading Logic The egg market has a relatively loose supply due to a large year - on - year increase in in - production inventory. The demand is in the off - season and general. With increasing macro risks and expected rising soybean meal prices, it is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. - **Options Trading**: Wait and see [11].