Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a 0.98% increase from the previous month, and this is the first time since September 2024 that reserves surpassed the $33 trillion mark [4][6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), adding 70,000 ounces in June, which is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to three main factors: a decline in the US dollar index, rising global asset prices, and appreciation of non-USD currencies [6][8] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching a three-year low, which increased the dollar value of non-USD assets held in reserves [6] - Global asset prices saw a rise, with the USD-denominated global bond index increasing by 1.0% and the S&P 500 index rising by 5.0% in June [6] - The appreciation of the euro and British pound against the dollar by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively also contributed to the increase in the dollar value of non-USD assets [6] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize reserve structure, respond to global uncertainties, and capitalize on the long-term upward trend in gold prices [7][9] - China's gold reserves are significantly lower than the world average, and increasing gold holdings can enhance the diversification and risk resistance of foreign exchange reserves [7] - The central bank's strategy reflects a strong recognition of gold's strategic value, aiming to maintain economic stability amid complex global conditions [7][9] Global Central Bank Trends - Despite the ongoing accumulation of gold, the monthly increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China has been decreasing, indicating a strategy to control purchase costs and optimize reserve structure [9] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 72% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next five years, while 73% expect to reduce their dollar reserves [10] - The current geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors are driving central banks to view gold as a strategic asset for risk mitigation [10]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion, marking a $32.2 billion increase from the end of May, with a growth rate of 0.98% [2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] - The increase in reserves in June was influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [2] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% to its lowest point in three years at 96.9, leading to a collective appreciation of non-USD currencies [2][3] Group 2: Asset Valuation and Market Impact - The rise in foreign exchange reserves was supported by a 1.0% increase in the USD-hedged global bond index and a 5.0% increase in the S&P 500 stock index [2] - The valuation of foreign reserves was positively impacted by the overall increase in global financial asset prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that China's foreign exchange reserves are at a moderately sufficient level, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and mitigating potential external shocks [3] - Factors such as steady economic growth and resilient foreign trade are expected to help maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 4: Gold Reserves - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces to 7.39 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [4] - The importance of gold as a reliable asset is increasing due to the normalization of global geopolitical risks and the diminishing reliability of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar [4] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against single currency risks and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 2.4% and total trading volume reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite and liquidity in the domestic market [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural trend, with indices fluctuating while the central tendency moves upward, as corporate earnings still face pressure despite signs of economic recovery [1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,174 billion, up by $32.2 billion from the end of May, remaining stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to promote the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The policy aims to address the challenges in charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with expectations for accelerated construction from 2025 to 2027, benefiting the upstream and downstream of the industry chain [3] Trade Relations - The U.S. government announced a delay in tariff negotiations, with President Trump set to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025 [3] - This trade policy reflects the Trump administration's strategy of using pressure to facilitate negotiations, which may increase global market volatility in the short term [3] Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3,497.48 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 points [4] - Among the sectors, utilities and banking experienced declines, while telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics led the gains [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was 1,474.798 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 1,859.38 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - A significant increase in pessimism regarding the global economic outlook has been observed among central banks, with a shift from expectations of a soft landing to a belief that stagflation is the most likely scenario [2][3] - Concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty have intensified, with 74% of respondents indicating that the potential impact of the Trump administration's trade and international alliance policies has overtaken geopolitical issues as the primary risk [2] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Reserve Currency Status - Despite 80% of respondents predicting that the U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, there is a notable trend towards diversification, with the euro and renminbi gaining attention [4] - Approximately 29% of central banks plan to reduce their investments in U.S. assets in the near future, reflecting a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3][4] Group 3: Gold as a Preferred Asset - Gold continues to be a primary target for global central banks, with 52% planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, and 67% believing it will be the best-performing asset class by the end of the decade [5][6] - Since the end of 2022, gold prices have surged over 100%, leading to a significant acceleration in gold purchases by central banks, particularly after the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves [6][7] Group 4: Concerns Over U.S. Political Environment - Two-thirds of central bank reserve managers express concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, fearing that political interference may undermine its ability to set monetary policy effectively [3] - The political environment in the U.S. is seen as a barrier to investment in dollar assets, with 70% of central banks indicating that it has hindered their investment decisions, a figure that has more than doubled from the previous year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that adhering to trading principles is crucial for success [1] - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with a focus on buying during dips and a target of reaching higher resistance levels [3][5] - The U.S. extended tariff negotiation deadlines, which temporarily alleviated pressure on gold prices, while central banks continued to increase their gold reserves, albeit modestly [5] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of upward momentum, with expectations of breaking through previous high points and potential resistance levels identified [7] - The dollar is anticipated to continue its upward trend, with recommendations to maintain long positions in certain currency pairs [8] - Trading strategies included specific entry and exit points for gold and oil, highlighting the importance of strict stop-loss measures to manage risk [9][10][12]

国家外汇管理局7月7日发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模达到33174亿美元，较5月末增加322亿美元，涨幅为0.98%。这一数据标 志着我国外储规模连续19个月稳定在3.2万亿美元以上，同时实现连续6个月的环比增长。与此同时，央行黄金储备数据同步公布，6月末黄金储备为7390万 盎司，环比增加7万盎司，这已是央行连续第8个月增持黄金。 外储规模重返高位的驱动因素 央行黄金储备的持续增持策略 央行连续8个月增持黄金的举措体现了对国际储备结构优化的战略考量。尽管6月份的增持量为7万盎司，与前几个月相比处于相对低位，但这一持续增持的 节奏符合市场预期。5月以来国际经贸摩擦态势有所降温，避险需求的弱化导致国际金价出现小幅调整，但整体仍维持在高位水平。 6月份外汇储备规模的显著上升主要源于两个关键因素的共同作用。美元指数在当月出现大幅下跌，跌幅达到2.5%，创下三年来的最低点96.9。这一变化直 接推动非美货币集体升值，其中欧元兑美元上涨3.89%，英镑兑美元上涨2.1%。由于我国外汇储备以美元计价，非美货币的升值通过汇率折算效应，有效增 加了外汇储备的规模。 全球金融资产价格的总体上涨构成了 ...

"6月，我国外汇储备较上月增加322亿美元，录得月度'六连涨'，上半年累计增加1151亿美元。"中银证 券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，6月末美元指数比5月末大幅下降2.68%，这意味着6月美元大幅 贬值推动我国外汇储备中非美元资产大幅升值的效应显著增强，这是6月外汇储备规模扩大的主要原 因。 王青表示，按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外汇储备规模都处于适度充裕水平，短期内 有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大背景下，适度充裕的外汇储备规模将为保持人民币汇率处于合 理均衡水平提供重要支撑，也将成为抵御外部冲击的压舱石。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）往后看，国家外汇管理局表示，我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外 汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 国家外汇管理局7月7日发布数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末 上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。 "2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总 体上涨。"国家外汇局相关负责人说，在汇率折算和资产价格变化等因 ...

Group 1 - As of June 30, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and the overall rise in global financial asset prices, influenced by macroeconomic policies and growth prospects of major economies [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by a total of $1,150 billion, achieving a monthly increase for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index fell by 2.68% in June, with non-US currencies generally appreciating, including a 3.89% rise in the euro and a 2.09% rise in the British pound against the dollar [2] - The rise in global asset prices, including a 1.0% increase in the dollar-denominated global bond index and a 4.96% increase in the S&P 500 index, provided strong support for the foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 3 - China's economy continues to grow steadily, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves despite a more complex external environment and significant volatility in international financial markets [3] - As of June 30, 2025, China's gold reserves increased to 7,390 million ounces, up from 7,383 million ounces at the end of May, marking an ongoing trend of gold accumulation by the central bank for eight consecutive months [3] Group 4 - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is 7.0%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold reserves to optimize the international reserve structure [4] - Increasing gold reserves can enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and create favorable conditions for the internationalization of the renminbi [4]

作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨张星 7月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美 元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%，连续6个月出现环比回升。这是2024年9月以来我 国外储首次站上3.3万亿美元大关，也是连续19个月保持在3.2万亿美元以上。 国家外汇局表示，2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数 下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备 规模上升。我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉记者，6月美元大幅贬值推动我国外储中非美元资产大幅升 值，是6月外储规模增幅扩大的主要原因。这背后是6月美国推进"大而美"法案，市场对美元信 心再度出现动摇。加之中美经贸磋商机制首次会议释放积极信号，全球主要股指普遍出现一定 幅度上涨，美债收益率有所下行，美债价格上升，全球金融资产价格总体上涨，也在推高6月 外储估值。 黄金储备方面，央行连续第8个月增持黄金。同日，央行公布数据显示，6月末黄金储备报 7390万盎司（约2298.55吨） ...

| 中概股逆势走强。 | | --- | 当地时间7月7日，美股三大股指集体低开，截至发稿，道指跌0.31%，标普500指数跌0.39%，纳指跌0.55%。 | 0 ~ ■ 03 | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 44691.27 | -0.31% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6254.55 | -0.39% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20488.68 | -0.55% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7500.74 | +1.53% | | .HXC | | | 关税消息仍然是投资者关注焦点。美国总统特朗普当地时间6日在社交媒体发文说，美国政府将于当地时间7日中午12时起公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税 协议。特朗普此前表示，拟于8月1日起对部分国家的商品实施最高达70%的关税措施。 此前，当地时间5日，马斯克与特朗普政府围绕日前生效的"大而美"税收与支出法案的激烈矛盾再度升级，马斯克宣布成立一个独立于共和、民主两党的新政 党——"美国党"，并声称该党将代表美国社会 ...