Core Viewpoint - The domestic XR consumer market is experiencing a mixed performance, with VR sales declining significantly while AR sales show strong growth in the first half of 2025 [1] Summary by Category XR Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the overall sales of the domestic XR consumer market reached 261,000 units, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9% but a year-on-year decline of 21% [1] VR Device Sales - The domestic consumer VR market is currently in a downturn, with VR device sales hitting a three-year low at 75,000 units in the first half of 2025 [1] - The decline in VR sales is attributed to insufficient investment in VR content ecosystems and the absence of major new product launches during this period [1] AR Device Sales - In contrast, the domestic consumer AR device sales reached 186,000 units in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% [1] - The growth in AR sales is supported by the continuous release of new AR glasses, government subsidies, and promotional events such as the "618" e-commerce festival [1] Future Projections - Based on the performance in the first half of 2025, the total sales of domestic consumer XR devices are projected to reach 606,000 units for the entire year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, primarily driven by AR devices [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer-grade XR market is experiencing structural differentiation in the first half of 2025, with the AR market continuing to grow while the VR market remains sluggish due to a lack of content ecosystem and new product releases [1] XR Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the overall XR sales reached 261,000 units, representing a 9% quarter-on-quarter growth, primarily driven by the launch of new AR glasses [1] - The domestic consumer-grade VR market is in a downturn, with VR device sales at 75,000 units, marking a three-year low, attributed to insufficient investment in VR content and no major new product launches [3] - Conversely, the domestic consumer-grade AR device sales reached 186,000 units, showing a 35% year-on-year increase and a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase, supported by new product launches and government subsidies [3] - The forecast for the entire year predicts a total of 606,000 units sold in the domestic consumer-grade XR market, a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year, mainly driven by AR devices [3] Brand Trends - In the VR device market, the brand landscape remains stable, with PICO holding a 46% market share, followed by Meta at 28% and Goovis at 7%. Despite market challenges, leading manufacturers maintain their shares through cost control and ecosystem integration [4] - In the AR device market, competition is intensifying, with Thunderbird Innovation leading at 35% market share, followed by XREAL at 22%. Starry Sky Meizu ranks third due to effective policy adaptation and a comprehensive marketing strategy [4] Technology Trends - In the VR device market, Fast LCD screen sales share has rebounded to 87%, while Micro OLED screens remain focused on high-end products [5] - In the AR device market, Micro OLED screens account for 87% of sales, with Sony dominating the market. Domestic manufacturers like Visionary Technology have seen a 30 percentage point increase in market share through deep collaborations [5] - Waveguide technology maintains a stable 13% sales share, with significant breakthroughs allowing manufacturers to reduce costs by 40% and introduce products with a field of view exceeding 50 degrees [5] Investment and Financing Situation - In the first half of 2025, there were 37 global XR financing deals amounting to 44.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 34 deals compared to the previous year, but with an increase of 33.5 billion yuan in total funding, indicating a trend of capital concentration towards leading projects [7] - The AR/VR investment landscape is characterized by four trends: capital centralization, core technology focus, ecological scene development, and regional clustering [7] - The shift from speculative investment to substantial technological breakthroughs and commercialization is evident, with domestic advancements in Micro LED and silicon-based OLED becoming key factors in reshaping the global supply chain [7]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai highlighted the integration of technology and culture, showcasing the potential of AI in various cultural sectors such as art, tourism, and gaming [1] - China's digital cultural industry is experiencing significant growth, with projected revenues exceeding 6.67 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for nearly 5% of GDP and a growth rate of 12.4% [1] - The transformation of China's digital cultural industry is shifting from participation to leadership in the global value chain, contributing to the reconstruction of international cultural discourse [1] Industry Overview - The digital cultural industry in China is becoming a crucial engine for cultural prosperity and economic growth, driven by the deep integration of technology and content innovation [1] - The emergence of platforms like TikTok and games like "Black Myth: Wukong" illustrates China's active role in the global cultural landscape [1] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include content innovation homogenization and superficial application of digital technologies, with a concentration of resources in economically developed regions [2] - There is a need for collaborative efforts to transition the digital cultural industry from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leaps, supported by policy frameworks and technological advancements [2] Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include enhancing the national cultural big data system, establishing standards for technology interfaces, content quality, and copyright protection, and supporting disruptive technologies like AIGC and XR in cultural applications [2] - Optimizing regional collaboration mechanisms and establishing digital cultural computing centers in underdeveloped areas are also suggested [2] Corporate Practices - Companies are encouraged to strengthen technological innovation and focus on high-quality IP that embodies Chinese aesthetics, such as the game "Honor of Kings" [3] - There is a call for increased investment in proprietary algorithms and smart creation tools to reduce reliance on foreign technologies [3] Consumer Engagement - Enhancing digital cultural consumption experiences and promoting accessible products for all demographics are essential for activating consumer potential [3] - Encouraging a healthy consumption ecosystem and fostering active participation in cultural production among consumers are also highlighted [3]

Industry Overview - The lens industry in China is expected to maintain a good growth momentum due to rigid demand, scenario refinement, and structural optimization, with a projected CAGR of 6.00% for manufacturer sales and 5.04% for retail sales from 2019 to 2024, reaching sales of 29.75 billion and 53.71 billion yuan by 2029 respectively [1] Company Strategy - The company has a flexible strategy across the industry chain, enhancing competitiveness and market share through deep partnerships with core suppliers like Mitsui Chemicals, which has provided a comprehensive product matrix for nearly 15 years [2] - The company ranks among the top in market share, with new production capacities in Thailand and Japan, and an increasing proportion of high unit price and high gross margin products, which is expected to further boost competitiveness and market share [2] - The company employs a C2M business model to engage directly with consumers, utilizing diversified channels to shorten the path to individual end customers, thereby enhancing profitability [2] Smart Glasses Development - The company is actively developing a second growth curve through smart glasses, with demand for lenses in AI and AR glasses, although AR glasses face technological limitations and have not yet achieved significant sales [3] - The company collaborates with leading tech and consumer electronics firms to develop customized lenses for XR products and has acquired land in Thailand for building a production base for XR product lenses [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.328 billion, 2.657 billion, and 2.963 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 561 million, 672 million, and 777 million yuan respectively, driven by lens demand growth and strategic partnerships in the smart glasses sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a solid performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.084 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 11.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 273 million RMB, reflecting a 30.7% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing its domestic market presence, with significant growth in standard lens products and a strong emphasis on high-value products [7][8]. - The XR (Extended Reality) business is expanding successfully, with strategic partnerships enhancing growth opportunities, particularly in the smart glasses segment [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 1.76 billion RMB, 2024: 2.061 billion RMB, 2025E: 2.403 billion RMB, 2026E: 2.786 billion RMB, and 2027E: 3.233 billion RMB, with growth rates of 13%, 17%, 17%, 16%, and 16% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 327 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 840 million RMB by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 32%, 31%, 29%, 24%, and 23% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.75 RMB in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer in the lens industry, with a comprehensive product SKU matrix and strong upstream and downstream partnerships [8]. - The company is actively enhancing its domestic market and proprietary brand initiatives, which are expected to drive new growth momentum [8]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned to leverage its first-mover advantage and strategic collaborations to expand its market share [8].

Group 1 - Samsung has confirmed the launch of a foldable smartphone and XR headset in the second half of this year, expected to be released by the end of the year [1] - The XR headset will feature an Android XR system, Micro OLED or OLEDoS displays with a refresh rate of 90Hz, and will support eye tracking [1] - The device will utilize an external battery pack and will support capabilities such as Gemini, navigation, and translation [1] Group 2 - ByteDance is reportedly advancing a mixed reality (MR) headset project, codenamed "Project P," through its VR subsidiary Pico, directly competing with Meta's flagship MR glasses planned for 2027 [3][5] - The MR glasses being developed by ByteDance show remarkable similarities to Meta's Orion prototype, particularly in their split architecture design, indicating a potential industry trend [3] - Pico is developing a dedicated chip for the MR device to process sensor data and reduce latency between user actions and AR visuals, similar to Apple's Vision Pro [5] Group 3 - The XR market is experiencing a quiet revolution, with traditional all-in-one headsets facing growth bottlenecks, while stylish lightweight devices like Ray-Ban Meta have unexpectedly gained popularity [7] - Pico's strategic shift towards MR reflects its deep insight into the future of smart glasses and demonstrates the company's flexibility and decisiveness in the face of competitive pressure [7] - The company continues to leverage its advantages and lead industry trends as technology and market dynamics evolve [7] Group 4 - WIMI, the first publicly traded holographic AR company, has been actively integrating technology and collaborating within the industry to enhance its competitiveness in the smart glasses sector [9] - WIMI plays a dual role as a "bottom technology enabler" and "industry ecosystem organizer," focusing on hardware optimization and core technology breakthroughs [9] - The company is participating in the "Hundred Glasses War," collaborating with major internet firms, hardware manufacturers, and traditional eyewear companies to build a complete ecosystem from technology development to application [9] Group 5 - The product plans and strategic layouts from major players indicate that the future battle for XR device mass adoption will require affordable products [10] - Lightweight design is set to become an irreversible trend for the next generation of XR devices, marking a potential watershed moment for the XR market [10] - The competition for lightweight XR devices is just beginning, suggesting a significant shift in the industry landscape [10]

Core Viewpoint - XREAL is focused on developing innovative AR glasses through self-research in hardware and algorithms, aiming to create a lightweight, modular product that can achieve significant market success [1][4][11]. Group 1: Company Development and Strategy - XREAL has established itself as a leading player in the global AR glasses market, maintaining the top position for three consecutive years with cumulative sales exceeding 600,000 units [4][11]. - The company has chosen a unique approach by investing heavily in self-research for core components like chips and optics, with 65% of parts in flagship products being self-developed or customized [6][7]. - XREAL's collaboration with Google on Project Aura marks it as the only Chinese company partnering with Google in the AR field, enhancing its position in the global market [4][10]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Technology - The newly launched One Pro AR glasses feature the self-developed X1 chip, which addresses critical performance issues such as latency and bandwidth optimization, achieving a remarkable 3 milliseconds of latency [6][7]. - The X1 chip is a 12-nanometer spatial computing chip that represents a significant investment of over 100 million yuan, highlighting XREAL's commitment to innovation in chip technology [7][8]. - XREAL aims to create a product that not only serves as an AR device but also integrates AI capabilities, leveraging Google's AI advancements to enhance user experience [12][19]. Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The AR glasses industry is currently in its early stages, with no product yet achieving the status of a blockbuster, indicating that the market is still developing [16][19]. - The recent surge in AI glasses, driven by competitors like Meta and Ray-Ban, is viewed as a temporary trend rather than a sustainable growth phase, with many products lacking maturity in technology and user experience [16][19]. - XREAL emphasizes the need for a robust developer ecosystem and user base to drive the industry forward, suggesting that the current market dynamics are not yet conducive to long-term success [16][19].

光学业务：引领WLG 玻塑混合镜头，加速布局XR 领域。近期消费电子需求提振，智能手机市场需求 逐步复苏，同时高端化趋势显著。早期智能手机性能升级主要通过增加摄像头个数，而目前单机摄像头 数量增长趋缓，光学升级核心关注性能的差异化升级。玻塑混合镜头提供优异光学性能的同时实现减 薄，有望成为手机镜头新趋势。瑞声科技独家掌握WLG 技术，持续引领WLG 玻塑混合镜头赛道，产 品已应用于多款智能手机。智能手机以外，在VR 领域，瑞声成功量产苹果Vision Pro 同款3P Pancake 光机模组；AR 方面，衍射光波导为AR 光学趋势，瑞声单层彩色光波导镜片可提供轻薄舒适佩戴体 验。 电磁传动及精密结构件：收购东阳精密实现结构件协同成长，端侧AI 引领VC散热需求。触觉反馈提高 人机交互体验，为智能终端升级重要方向。相比于转子马达，线性马达效果真实且功耗低，其中X 轴线 性马达由于振动行程更长，触觉反馈更优，正在逐步从旗舰机型向中低端机型渗透。瑞声在X 轴线性马 达领域拥有深厚储备，同时正在从智能手机向其他应用领域积极拓展。精密结构件业务方面，瑞声是折 叠手机铰链的领先供应商，有望随折叠屏手机渗透率提升带动业绩 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 瑞声科技（02018.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 多元布局消费电子业务，光学及 XR 有望驱 动新增长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 27328 | 30,762 | 33,702 | | 36,586 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% | | 8.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,797 | 2,362 | 2,770 | | 3,162 | | 同比增速(%) | 142.7% | 31.4% | 17.2% | | 14.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.50 | 1.97 | 2.31 | | 2.64 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25.9 | 19.7 | 16.8 | | 14.7 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | | 1.5 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.08 billion, representing an 11.1% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million, up 30.7% year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the orderly expansion of both international and domestic businesses, stable sales of high-value-added products, and effective cost reductions from automated production line upgrades [1]. - The company is actively promoting high refractive index and multifunctional lenses, leading to a continuous upgrade in product structure and a notable increase in gross margin [2]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, revenue from standard lenses was 510 million, up 20% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.6%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [2]. - Revenue from functional lenses was 380 million, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.6%, also an increase of 2.8 percentage points [2]. - Custom lens revenue was 180 million, down 4.9% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 61.9%, which increased by 2.4 percentage points [2]. - Total sales volume reached 9.3 million pieces, a 7.5% increase year-on-year, with an average product price of 23.3 yuan, up 3.3% [2]. Regional Performance - Domestic revenue was 360 million, a 19.0% increase year-on-year, with a focus on high-end differentiated products to enhance market share [3]. - Overseas revenue was 730 million, up 7.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Asia (23% increase) while revenue from the Americas decreased by 2% [3]. - The company is expanding overseas production capacity, with a new customized production line in Japan expected to start in the second half of 2025 [3]. XR Business Development - The company is making steady progress in its XR business, collaborating with both domestic and international technology and consumer electronics companies [4]. - The number of overseas projects is increasing, with some key projects transitioning from product functionality verification to scaling up production [4]. - Domestic collaborations have also progressed, with some key projects already delivering products and receiving positive feedback from end users [4]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 560 million, 670 million, and 790 million respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 35X, 29X, and 25X [5].