Core Insights - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that September's inflation is just the beginning of a series of "data shocks," with expectations of accelerated inflation in Q4 and better-than-expected employment data, leading to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary easing [1][3][14] - The market's previous "blind euphoria" is expected to cool down, with short-term fluctuations in precious metals and risk assets likely to continue [1][3] Inflation Trends - Q4 core inflation is anticipated to face an upward turning point, driven by new inventory demands and the impact of tariffs, which will further amplify inflationary pressures [1][15] - The September CPI is projected to rise above 3%, with core CPI growth expected to remain steady at 3.1%, reflecting a divergence between rising goods prices and declining service inflation [8][14] Factors Influencing Prices - Price increases in goods are primarily driven by two factors: heightened demand for new vehicles and the impact of tariffs on retail prices, particularly for imported goods [7][15] - Service inflation is expected to slow down, which may offset some of the upward pressure from goods inflation, particularly in housing and travel sectors [11][14] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's path for easing may be more constrained than the market currently anticipates, with potential for a pause in rate cuts in December or January due to rising inflation alongside a recovering job market [1][15] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could provide the Fed with a more flexible decision-making window, potentially easing inflationary pressures if tariffs are deemed unlawful [15][18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy and its strategic planning under the "Fifteen Plan" (十五规划), focusing on maintaining economic growth and addressing challenges in various sectors, particularly technology and real estate. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the "Fifteen Plan" is expected to be set above the potential growth rate, reflecting a commitment to maintaining necessary growth levels [3][4][6]. 2. **Role of Technology Innovation**: Technology innovation is emphasized as a core component of the "Fifteen Plan," with increased fiscal support directed towards enterprises and industries to enhance their innovative capabilities [4][5]. 3. **Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies**: The implementation of macroeconomic stabilization policies aims to reduce market volatility and provide greater certainty for capital markets, thereby boosting investor confidence [6][7]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The Chinese economy is currently facing deflationary pressures, particularly in the manufacturing and export sectors. Solutions include enhancing pricing power through supply-side adjustments [7][8]. 5. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: The domestic market is under pressure, especially due to real estate issues and a slowdown in urbanization. Future urbanization efforts may focus on less developed regions to promote balanced development [8][9]. 6. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market aims to address issues of chaotic low-price competition and promote positive price adjustments, which will support supply-side reforms [9][10]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to maintain a strong stance, with a nominal deficit rate of 4% and an actual deficit rate projected to remain around 10%, focusing on social welfare and transfer payments [10][11]. 8. **Employment Market Challenges**: The employment market faces challenges, particularly for low-skilled workers and recent graduates. Measures include subsidies for job stability and skills training [12][13]. 9. **International Trade Dynamics**: China's technology sector is expected to gain competitiveness, reducing reliance on U.S. trade, which enhances China's position in global trade dynamics [14][15][16]. 10. **Diversification of Trade Partners**: There is a trend towards diversifying trade partners, with increased trade with developing countries, particularly in Africa, to mitigate the impacts of changing U.S.-China trade relations [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of aligning fiscal policies with social needs and adjusting the central-local fiscal relationship to alleviate local financial pressures [11][12]. - The discussion on the semiconductor industry indicates that China is on track to become a major player in chip exports, reflecting significant advancements in technology [16][17]. - The strategic approach to U.S.-China relations emphasizes a balance between responding to U.S. actions and maintaining a stable economic environment [17][18].

一个月前，经济学家还预计今年仅会再降息一次。但随着美联储政策制定者近期转向支持额外降息，新 的预测随之调整。 当前美联储面临双重风险：关税可能导致本已高企的通胀进一步攀升，同时劳动力市场或进一步疲软。 美联储似乎更看重后者，因此在上月进行了2023年12月以来的首次25个基点降息。 在117名受访经济学家中，除2人外，其余115人均预测美联储将在10月29日再次降息25个基点，使利率 降至3.75%-4.00%区间。另有2人预计10月降息25个基点、12月降息50个基点。 对于12月是否再次降息，支持的经济学家比例降至71%。此次调查开展于10月15日至21日。 金融市场交易员信心更足，已在利率期货合约中完全消化了今年再降息两次的预期。 包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多名联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员均表示，将持续关注就业市场。 然而，已持续三周的政府停摆导致关键的就业与通胀官方数据延迟发布，令经济前景变得模糊。 "坦诚地说，当前FOMC中，约有一半成员更关注劳动力市场，另一半则聚焦通胀风险。"汇丰银行 （HSBC）美国经济学家瑞安·王（Ryan Wang）表示。 "美联储面临的难题在于，就业增长放缓是否主要 ...

下周，美联储必须在"盲飞"状态下就利率走向做出关键抉择，而这个决定可能会将美国经济引向未知的 水域。 受美国政府关门影响，关键数据发布被暂停，令美联储对经济的判断蒙上阴影。在这一并不理想的情况 下，决策者对应优先关注哪些风险仍存分歧，美联储将于下周召开政策会议。 自10月1日联邦政府关门以来，官方就业数据一直未发布，但现有信息显示，就业增长仍然疲弱。美联 储依靠自身经费持续开展的经济实地调研显示，消费者支出可能出现裂痕，近期企业信心调查也有所回 落。 与此同时，企业也在警告未来将上调价格，而通胀仍高于美联储2%目标。随着企业投资规模逐步明 朗，整体经济增速预估被上调；经济学家还开始指出，随着包括将小费和加班收入排除在应税所得之外 等新税法推动家庭退税增加，明年经济可能迎来一波提振。 美联储官员聚焦就业市场 金融市场预计，美联储将在10月28-29日的政策会议上将基准利率降息25个基点至3.75%-4.00%区间。 但正如野村发达市场首席经济学家David Seif所言，官员和经济学家"简直是在盲飞"。他表示："当下最 大的问号是劳动力市场到底发生了什么，而在我们看到劳工统计局的月度就业报告之前，我们无法知 道 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, is leaning towards supporting another interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, while cautioning against excessive easing due to ongoing inflation risks [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - Musalem indicated that he could support a policy rate cut if labor market risks increase and inflation risks remain manageable, with inflation expectations anchored [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut following the September reduction, with the current federal funds rate target range at 4% to 4.25% [3]. Inflation Concerns - Musalem emphasized the need for caution, stating that the space for easing is limited until the task of controlling inflation is completed [3]. - He highlighted persistent inflation risks stemming from tariffs, reduced labor supply, and sticky service prices, which require ongoing vigilance [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - Musalem noted that the labor market might face greater pressure, with the necessary monthly job additions to maintain stable unemployment potentially decreasing to a range of 30,000 to 80,000 [4]. - He expressed that negative growth in non-farm employment could occur, but this may not necessarily lead to a significant rise in the unemployment rate [5]. Future Projections - Musalem projected that the impact of tariffs on inflation would continue to transmit through the economy for the next two to three quarters, with a return to the 2% inflation target expected by the second half of 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates again this month due to a weak labor market overshadowing inflation concerns, but this balance may not last long [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 29, as indicated by Powell's warning about a worsening job market potentially leading to higher unemployment [1][2]. - Futures market traders anticipate another rate cut in December, aligning with the Fed officials' median forecast from last month [1]. - A significant number of Fed officials, 8 out of 19, predict no further rate cuts next year due to inflation remaining above target for 54 consecutive months and ongoing tariff pressures [1][3]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Recent months have shown weak job growth, with early data being significantly revised down, challenging the perception of a strong labor market [2]. - Powell noted that a decline in job vacancies could likely lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market [2]. - The lack of large-scale layoffs suggests a low-recruitment, low-layoff economy, but the potential for rising unemployment remains a concern [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Inflation has been persistently high, with 54 months of being at or below target levels, raising concerns among Fed officials [3]. - The recent trade tensions and potential for increased tariffs add to inflation risks, influencing the cautious stance of several Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [3]. - The push for rate cuts has been primarily led by Fed governors who prioritize employment concerns, while some officials advocate for a more aggressive approach [3]. Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Economic data is mixed, showing resilience in growth and consumer spending, while hiring has slowed down, complicating the Fed's decision-making [4]. - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May 2024 adds uncertainty to the policy outlook, with potential changes in leadership influencing future rate decisions [4]. - The balance of employment and inflation risks will ultimately shape the policy debate leading into 2026, possibly resulting in more cautious actions than currently anticipated by the market [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the negative impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing challenges faced by the Federal Reserve due to a lack of official data [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reignited market interest in small-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap stocks by nearly 4% since April [2] - Employment data has shown a concerning trend, with a reported loss of 91,100 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, raising investor concerns about data reliability [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to an increased allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, shifting the allocation stance to neutral for large-cap stocks [2] - The macro environment is favorable for growth stocks, particularly in the AI/technology sector, prompting a shift towards growth-oriented investments [2] - The company maintains a low allocation to bonds due to inflation and fiscal stimulus financing demands, which may keep interest rates under pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is signaling a potential interest rate cut in October due to signs of a cooling labor market and tightening liquidity conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Powell's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on avoiding past market pressures experienced in September 2019 [1][3]. - The end of the quantitative tightening (QT) program is anticipated, which has been in place since mid-2022 to absorb excess liquidity injected during the pandemic [2][4]. - The timing of ending QT is seen as a strategy to balance market sentiment and control inflation while adjusting the Fed's balance sheet [4][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The market is responding positively to the prospect of ending QT, which is expected to support U.S. equities, particularly growth and technology stocks [5][9]. - The cessation of QT will alleviate selling pressure in the bond market, potentially lowering long-term yields and enhancing expectations for monetary easing [4][5]. - A significant drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% reflects market anticipation of rate cuts and the subsequent impact on asset prices [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Concerns about the labor market are overshadowing inflation risks, with Powell emphasizing the need for caution in policy adjustments [7][8]. - The upcoming data releases, including employment and inflation figures, are critical for shaping future monetary policy decisions [7][10]. - The potential for a "soft landing" in the economy could lead to a bullish scenario for both stocks and bonds, while persistent inflation or a sharp decline in employment could increase market volatility [10].

2025.10.15 多位与会经济学家认为，就业下行风险正成为美联储内部关注的焦点。机构MacroPolicy Perspectives创 始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）表示："10月降息几乎是板上钉钉。劳动力市场的风险并未缓 解，反而在增加。" 美国咨商会高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚季耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）认为，美联储正从"抗通胀优 先"逐步过渡到"平衡增长与就业"的阶段。"当前风险更多集中在就业端，这将决定短期内的政策方 向。" 本文字数：1970，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间10月14日，在美国政府停摆导致经济数据发布受阻的背景下，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，自9月 决策会议以来，美国经济前景基本保持不变。当前政策取向已进入艰难平衡期：一边是通胀压力尚未完 全缓解，另一边是就业市场持续走弱。尽管鲍威尔未对下一步行动给出明确信号，但市场普遍预期，美 联储将在10月底的会议上再次降息。 "现在没有无风险的路径。"鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上说，"如果行动太快，可能会 让抗通胀任务半途而废；但若行动太慢，劳动力市场也可能遭到不必要的损 ...

2025.10. 15 本文字数：1970，阅读时长大约3分钟 就业放缓风险上升 鲍威尔在讲话中多次提到劳动力市场的疲态。他认为，美国正处于"低招聘、低裁员"的阶段，职位空 缺的持续下降可能很快反映在失业率上。"我们经历过一个罕见的时期——岗位需求下降但失业率保 持稳定，但这种情况可能已接近极限。" 美国失业率8月升至4.3%，为过去一年新高。由于政府停摆，9月非农就业报告被迫推迟，市场对劳 动力状况的判断更加模糊。鲍威尔表示，这种信息缺口对决策形成挑战："我们很快就会开始错过数 据，特别是10月的核心数据。如果停摆持续下去，数据甚至不会被收集。" 多 位 与 会 经 济 学 家 认 为 ， 就 业 下 行 风 险 正 成 为 美 联 储 内 部 关 注 的 焦 点 。 机 构 MacroPolicy Perspectives创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）表示："10月降息几乎是板上钉钉。劳动 力市场的风险并未缓解，反而在增加。" 美国咨商会高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚季耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）认为，美联储正从"抗通胀 优先"逐步过渡到"平衡增长与就业"的阶段。"当前 ...