摩根大通证券首席日本经济学家认为，日本央行可能会在10月加息，并且日元走弱可能迫使央行提前行 动。不过，如果国内政治局势持续不稳定，日本央行可能被迫将加息时间推迟到12月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the US stock market, highlighting the record highs of major indices and the implications of high leverage in trading, alongside upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.46% last week, while the Nasdaq index increased by 1.02%, both closing at all-time highs [3]. - Over 40% of S&P 500 companies are set to release their Q2 earnings this week, with major tech firms like Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm among them [1]. Group 2: Leverage and Risks - As of the end of June, the margin account borrowing balance for US investors surpassed $1 trillion, raising concerns about high leverage in the market [3]. - Analyst Michael Hartnett warns that the risk of a market bubble is increasing due to loose monetary policy and relaxed financial regulations [3][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 31 is anticipated to be a significant event for global financial markets, with a 95.9% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged [6]. - Market expectations suggest a 61.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and a 49.5% chance in October [6]. Group 4: International Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5%, with a focus on its quarterly outlook report and recent US-Japan trade agreements [7][8]. - There are rising expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year, contingent on global economic conditions [8].

Group 1 - The Japan-US trade agreement, effective from July 22, 2025, significantly reduces Japan's auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, creating conditions for the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy [1] - Following the agreement, the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching 146.82, while Japanese government bond futures declined, indicating a market shift towards higher interest rate expectations [1] - The probability of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased from approximately 60% to around 80% by the end of the year, with many respondents anticipating a potential hike in January 2026 or October 2025 [1] Group 2 - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June 2025, down from 3.5% in May, driven mainly by food price inflation, still above the 2% target [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's nominal GDP will fall to fifth place globally, overtaken by India, due to yen depreciation affecting dollar-denominated GDP [2] - The Bank of Japan is balancing multiple objectives, focusing on price stability while assessing global financial market volatility's impact on the yen, with potential concerns for export companies if the yen appreciates rapidly [2]

Core Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan creates potential for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates this year, contingent on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The BOJ's assessment of the economic outlook may become more optimistic, moving away from a focus on tariff-related risks [1][2] - The upcoming BOJ policy meeting on July 30-31 is expected to provide a more positive evaluation of the U.S. tariff impacts and possibly adjust inflation forecasts [2][4] Economic Context - Japan's economy has been struggling with weak consumption, rising living costs, and a sluggish manufacturing sector, leading to concerns about recession [1][4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations has previously led the BOJ to lower growth expectations and pause interest rate hikes [1][4] - Despite a recent trade agreement, analysts predict that U.S. tariffs will still negatively impact Japan's GDP growth by approximately 0.55 percentage points [4] BOJ's Policy Outlook - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchid's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more optimistic view regarding achieving the 2% inflation target, which is a prerequisite for further rate hikes [1][2] - The BOJ's internal divisions on the timing of rate hikes reflect ongoing concerns about the fragile state of the economy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [3][4] - Market expectations for a potential rate hike in October are growing, with the two-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a near four-month high of 0.845% [2][4]

Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which includes a reduction of tariffs to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US, is expected to significantly alleviate the tariff pressures faced by Japanese manufacturing [1][2] - Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8% for the fiscal year 2025, citing positive effects from the new trade agreement [2] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations have been moved forward from January 2024 to October 2023 due to the favorable conditions created by the trade agreement [3] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The trade agreement allows Japan to open its markets to US goods, which is anticipated to increase imports and positively impact Japan's economy [2] - The agreement is seen as a catalyst for potential wage increases in Japan, with a possibility of achieving a 4.5% or higher wage growth in the upcoming spring negotiations [4][7] Group 2: Economic Forecast Adjustments - Barclays had previously downgraded Japan's growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 0.5% due to uncertainties and reduced exports to the US, but the new agreement has led to an upward revision [2] - The agreement is expected to reduce the downward pressure on corporate profits, which may further support wage increases in the manufacturing sector [7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The conditions for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have been met, with the tariff reduction being a significant factor [3] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor has indicated that the trade agreement is a crucial development that reduces economic uncertainty and enhances the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target [3]

凯投宏观：日本央行10月加息概率上升 金十数据7月24日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Marcel Thieliant指出，日本央行10月份加息的可能性似乎更 大。Thieliant表示，美国和日本之间达成的贸易协议消除了一项关键的下行风险，日本央行可能会在下 周的会议上对经济前景做出更乐观的评估。由于通胀远超日本央行的预期，Thieliant坚持认为，日本央 行将在10月份恢复紧缩周期。 ...

认为下次加息在10月的受访者比例从30%微升至32%，预计1月行动的比例也从34%小幅增至36%。总体来看，近80%的受访者预计明年1月前会有动作。 调查显示，所有56位经济学家均预测行长植田和男领导的政策委员会将在7月31日结束的为期两天的会议上维持基准利率0.5%不变。 根据在美国总统特朗普宣布美日贸易协议前进行的调查，日本央行观察人士普遍预计当局将在10月或1月上调基准利率。 随着关税前景明朗，下周日本央行会议焦点将转向季度经济展望报告。鉴于今年通胀率持续保持在3%及以上，市场普遍预期央行将上调物价展望，并修正 物价增长风险平衡评估。 凯投宏观亚太区主管马塞尔.蒂利安特指出："通胀远超日本央行5月预测。尽管需要上调本财年通胀预期，但关键在于是否维持2026财年的悲观预测，并仍 认为存在下行风险。" 植田和男主持政策辩论之际，石破茂领导的自民党在周日参议院选举中遭遇历史性挫败，导致执政联盟在参众两院均失去多数席位。 没有受访者认为选举结果会促使提前加息。约35%认为会推迟加息，近同等比例认为属中性因素。 10月和1月仍是日本央行加息的最佳时机 特朗普宣布将日本商品的全面关税税率设定为15%，低于原定8月1 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，荷兰合作银行外汇策略师Jane Foley在一份报告中表示，如果日本央行在年底前加 息的可能性上升，日元将受益。她说，假设未来几周政治不确定性有所缓解，美日贸易协议的通过和上 周日参议院的选举结果可能会增加日本央行进一步加息的可能性。"鉴于日本央行将于7月31日召开会 议，市场将有机会评估该贸易协议可能对货币政策产生的影响。"市场普遍预期日本央行将维持政策稳 定，但市场将寻找未来可能加息的线索。 荷兰合作银行：如果加息的可能性增加，日元可能会升值 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，美日贸易协议的达成预示着日本央行 将在今年重启紧缩周期。Thieliant表示，该协议消除了日本经济面临的一个关键下行风险。随着贸易谈 判显然取得成功，据报道日本首相石破茂将于8月辞职。考虑到自民党在周日参议院选举中的糟糕表 现，这并不令人意外。总体而言，最新事态发展增强了凯投宏观的观点，即日本央行将在10月会议上恢 复加息。 凯投宏观：美日贸易协议消除关键风险，日本央行或于10月恢复加息 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].