Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the June meeting, with a focus on domestic employment and inflation trends, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [2] - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and will slow down its balance sheet reduction starting April 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation due to tariff uncertainties [3] Energy/Coal Sector - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to lead to a rebound in coal prices, as historical data shows a correlation between oil and coal prices during geopolitical conflicts [3] - The average oil-coal price ratio since 2000 is 3.37, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, indicating a strong relationship between the two commodities [3] Consumer Sector - In May, China's retail sales reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies and active holiday consumption [6] - The consumer recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities in emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation [6] Transportation Sector - Airlines have seen a steady increase in capacity and a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with ticket prices improving for eight consecutive weeks [7] - The industry is expected to enter a profitable cycle, supported by low supply growth and effective revenue management by airlines [7] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has shown a mild recovery, with a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries [11] - Key trends include focusing on core assets, enhancing local capabilities for overseas markets, and leveraging AI and innovation for growth [11]

Core Insights - The "holiday economy" effect in Shenzhen is showing significant growth, particularly in non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals, which is driving the city's development as an international consumption center [2][5] Group 1: Growth in Inbound Consumption - As of May 19, 2025, inbound and outbound personnel in Shenzhen exceeded 100 million, with foreign visitors reaching 2.64 million, a year-on-year increase of 41% [2] - In the first five months of 2025, non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals in Shenzhen totaled nearly 9.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37%, with transaction volume reaching 71.1 million, up 31% [2] - During the "May Day" holiday, non-cash payment transactions by foreign individuals surged to 2.83 million transactions worth 28.3 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64% and 58% respectively [3] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Hong Kong residents remain the primary consumers in Shenzhen, accounting for 68% of transaction volume and 60% of transaction value, with year-on-year increases of 25% and 27% respectively [3][4] - The attractiveness of Shenzhen to Southeast Asian markets is increasing, with South Korea, the United States, and Singapore being the top three source countries, contributing over 40% of the consumption value [3] - Notably, consumption from tourists from Laos and Thailand saw year-on-year increases of 125 times and 17 times respectively in the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The primary areas of consumption for Hong Kong residents in Shenzhen are supermarkets and dining, which together account for over 70% of total consumption in the first five months of the year [4] - Transportation and travel-related spending have become significant growth points, with a year-on-year increase of 40% [4] - Foreigners are also keen on shopping, with related consumption growing by 28% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 4: Policy Impact - Shenzhen is enhancing the cross-border consumption experience by implementing the "immediate refund" policy for departure tax, which has led to a more than 2.1 times increase in sales of tax-refunded goods in the first five months of 2025 [5] - The "immediate refund" sales have surged over 20 times, significantly supporting the local shopping districts and the development of Shenzhen as an international consumption center [5] - The ongoing growth of Shenzhen's "holiday economy" is providing foreign individuals with a more convenient and diverse shopping experience, contributing to the city's ambition to become a global consumption hub [5]

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 17 日 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：5 月经济数据: 消费走强，生产偏弱 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 5 月经济活动数据点评 由于 2024 年 5 月经济活动基数走低，今年 5 月经济数据总体呈现出"环比 放缓、同比稳健"的态势，具体看，外需和工业生产环比减速，地产销售和 投资增长同比降幅走阔，而消费增长大幅超预期，但部分受一次性因素提 振。随着"抢出口"退坡，关税不确定性下出口订单增长放缓，5 月出口、 发电量、工业增加值同比同步回落。同时，虽然广义（一般公共预算+政府 性基金）财政支出同比保持高速增长，但环比增长在 4 月后有所放缓，短期 对总需求贡献有所回落（图表 1）。内外需因素共振下，短期增长不确定性加 强，市场主体风险偏好边际回落，也部分可以解释为何地产销售环比减速。 社零同比增长较为亮眼，主要受益于"618"错位及五一假期出行活跃同比 增速超预期增长。考虑到后续"以旧换新"政策退坡、整治违规聚餐等政策 的影响、社零高增的持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant recovery in China's consumer market in May 2024, driven by government subsidies and promotional events, leading to the highest growth rates in retail sales and dining revenue since the beginning of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Market Performance - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1]. - The retail sales of goods amounted to 36,748 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while dining revenue was 4,578 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% [1]. - The positive trends in both goods and dining consumption were attributed to the effects of government subsidies and holiday consumption during the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" [1][7]. Group 2: Impact of Government Subsidies - The high growth rate in May's retail sales was primarily driven by government subsidies and e-commerce promotions, with significant increases in basic and upgraded goods [3]. - Sales of staple food, jewelry, and sports entertainment products saw growth rates of 14.6%, 21.8%, and 28.3%, respectively [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been effective, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Online Sales - The "6.18" online shopping festival, which began on May 13, significantly boosted online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% from January to May [5]. - The integration of government subsidies and promotional discounts was a key strategy for e-commerce platforms to attract consumers [5]. Group 4: Dining Consumption Trends - Dining revenue, accounting for about 11% of total retail sales, achieved a 5.9% year-on-year growth in May, the highest monthly growth in a year [7]. - The dining market is experiencing intense competition, with a shift towards family dining and high-cost performance restaurants as business dining declines [8]. - The number of domestic tourists increased by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, contributing to the growth in dining consumption [8][9]. Group 5: Tourism and Inbound Travel - The increase in inbound tourism, particularly with the expansion of visa-free entry policies, has positively impacted the consumer market [9]. - The number of inbound tourists utilizing visa-free policies grew by over 70% during the "May Day" holiday, leading to a significant rise in dining and retail transactions [9].

北京大学经济学院教授苏剑告诉21世纪经济报道记者，5月份的消费增速数据比较高，是今年以来的消费增速最高水平，是好现 象。另外，从5月份的商品消费数据来看，拉动消费增长的政策效应明显，和国补相关的品类都得到了很好的两位数增长。国补 叠加大促激发消费 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 国家统计局数据显示，基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类 商品零售额分别增长14.6%、21.8%、28.3%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份经济数据。其中，5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的 最高增速。按消费类型分，5月份，商品零售额36748亿元，同比增长6.5%，是2024年以来的最高增速；餐饮收入4578亿元，增 长5.9%，是2024年4月以来的最高增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumption market in Xinjiang during the Gulebong Festival, with a stable supply of goods and a significant increase in consumer enthusiasm [1][2][4] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a sales increase of 3.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [1][4] - Various promotional activities and events were organized by businesses, such as the "Summer Fire Shopping Discounts" in Urumqi, which included over 50 promotional events [2][4] Group 2 - The integration of policy and market initiatives has effectively stimulated consumption, with local governments issuing electronic consumption vouchers and subsidies to boost spending [4][5] - The "old for new" policy has been a strong driver of consumption growth, with 181.1 million units applied for subsidies, leading to a direct consumption increase of 167.2 billion [5] - The demand for leisure activities, such as outdoor camping and cultural tourism, has surged, with significant sales increases in related equipment and services [6][7] Group 3 - The family-oriented consumption trend has been a key factor in driving shopping mall traffic, with innovative experiential activities attracting more visitors [10] - Urumqi's shopping centers reported a 40% increase in sales during the festival, driven by family-friendly events and activities [10] - The development of night markets and rural tourism projects has further enriched the consumer experience and stimulated local economies [10][11]

6月10日，国家统计局湖北调查总队发布消息，5月份，湖北居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%，涨幅比上月 扩大0.1个百分点。其中，城市上涨0.3%，农村下降0.2%；食品价格与去年持平，非食品价格上涨 0.2%；消费品价格下降0.1%，服务价格上涨0.6%。1—5月平均，湖北居民消费价格与去年同期持平。 湖北调查总队消费价格调查处相关负责人表示，5月CPI的温和上涨，除了"五一"、端午等假日因素对消 费的拉动，提振消费相关政策持续显效起到了重要作用。 湖北调查总队消费价格调查处相关负责人分析指出，在CPI方面，随着时令水果、淡水鱼等上市量的增 加，后期价格有望步入季节性下降通道。此外，随着高考、中考陆续结束，以及暑期出行需求增加，服 务价格可能上涨。加上促消费扩内需政策的助力，将对相关行业价格起到支撑作用。 企业原材料成本压力缓解 同时发布的数据显示，5月份，湖北工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.5%，环比下降0.3%；工业生产者购 进价格同比下降5.3%，环比下降0.2%。1—5月平均，工业生产者出厂价格比去年同期下降2.6%，工业 生产者购进价格下降5.2%。 生产资料价格下降3.0%，其中原材料工业价格下降5.2 ...

端午粽香犹在，一组数据引发热议：交通运输部消息显示，5月31日至6月2日（端午假期），全社会跨 区域人员流动量达65370万人次，日均21790万人次，同比增长2.5%。这组数据勾勒出假日经济蓬勃发 展的画卷，彰显了旅游消费的巨大活力。 "旅游+"模式创新也将持续涌现。金融与旅游、文化、体育、健康等产业深度融合，打造"旅游+"模式， 更多新消费场景和体验将相继推出，满足人们多样化旅游消费需求。 此外，金融机构与旅游企业合作，推动智慧旅游平台建设，提升旅游服务智能化水平，为游客带来便 捷、高效、舒适的智慧旅游体验。 未来，随着金融创新的深入，金融与旅游的融合将更加紧密，协同发展也将进一步提速。我们期待，在 金融活水的润泽下，假日经济更加繁荣，一幅多元且充满活力的旅游消费新图景徐徐展开。 此外，金融机构积极发展绿色金融，支持生态旅游、乡村旅游等可持续发展项目，推动旅游产业与环境 保护和谐共生。绿色信贷、绿色债券等金融工具引导资金流向绿色旅游项目，助力旅游产业可持续发 展。 金融与旅游的深度融合，不仅为假日经济注入新的活力，更为旅游消费描绘新图景。 个性化、定制化旅游产品将不断涌现。金融机构利用大数据、人工智能等技 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming tourism and consumption in Xuchang, driven by the popularity of the "Fat Donglai" supermarket and various promotional activities [1][2][3] Group 1: Tourism and Consumption Growth - Xuchang has seen a significant increase in tourism, with a 6.3% rise in tourist numbers and a 7.2% increase in tourism revenue in the first five months of the year [1] - The city's retail sales of consumer goods reached 643.6 billion yuan in the first four months, marking a 9.6% year-on-year growth, maintaining the highest growth rate in the province [1] - The local government has introduced 23 policy measures to stimulate consumption and investment, aiming to achieve the "double over half" target in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Cultural and Promotional Activities - Xuchang is actively promoting its cultural heritage through various activities, including the "Many Good Foods, Many Good Products, Many Good Fun" campaign, enhancing its brand image [2] - The city has implemented measures to improve the consumer experience, such as free parking and leniency for minor traffic violations, which have contributed to a surge in consumption across various sectors [2] - The introduction of a "trade-in" policy for appliances and vehicles has further stimulated consumer spending, with 2.5 billion yuan allocated for this initiative, leading to 16 billion yuan in direct consumption [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The local government is focused on leveraging the traffic generated by "Fat Donglai" to boost consumer confidence and diversify consumption scenarios [3] - Efforts are being made to create a high-quality consumer environment by aligning service standards with those of "Fat Donglai" and fostering unique service brands [2][3]

Group 1 - The consumption market during the Dragon Boat Festival is thriving, with 119 million domestic trips made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and total spending reaching 42.73 billion RMB, up 5.9% [1] - Instant delivery services have effectively met the demand for personalized gifting during the festival, with significant growth in orders for cakes and flowers, particularly through the "one-to-one" delivery model [2][5] - The competition among food delivery platforms continues to intensify, with companies like Taobao, JD, and Meituan offering promotions to expand instant retail consumption scenarios, benefiting third-party delivery services [7] Group 2 - The demand for beverages, fast food, and supermarket goods has surged, with instant delivery services playing a crucial role in supporting holiday consumption [7][8] - Collaboration with major retail brands like Sam's Club and Yonghui Supermarket has led to significant growth in order volumes across various categories, ensuring that essential items are readily available for consumers [8] - The integration of diverse instant delivery services has revitalized traditional holiday experiences, allowing consumers to enjoy both at-home celebrations and immersive cultural activities [8]