【期现行情】 期货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的倾向。美国财政部 外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌 克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油 的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附 近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM 制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地 ...

近期，受到美国对俄罗斯两大石油生产商制裁影响，伊拉克国家石油营销组织SOMO已取消3批卢克石 油公司原定于11月装船的原油货物。印度两家国企HPCL、MRPL通过招标从美国、中东采购约500万桶 原油，包括阿布扎比Murban原油。近期俄罗斯到印度原油物流出现扰动，初步出口数据显示，10月俄 罗斯原油出口环比下滑5%，但较去年同期仍高约10%。印度信实集团、MRPL、HMEL集团已经停止对 俄罗斯原油采买，目前约80万桶/日俄罗斯原油供应受到威胁。 ■"欧佩克+"确定产量计划 11月2日，"欧佩克+"宣布12月将小幅增产13.7万桶/日，并暂停2026年第一季度进一步增产计划。"欧佩 克+"成员国将于11月30日举行下一次会议，商讨2026年的产量水平。届时该组织将评估暂停增产对市场 实际效果、全球需求情况以及地缘政治局势发展。另一方面，沙特下调12月销往亚洲官方销售价格，其 中阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲售价每桶下调1.2美元，较阿曼/迪拜原油均价升水1美元/桶，此外中质与重质 原油每桶调降1.4美元。 来源：中国能源网 ■美洲产量预期强劲 夏季需求旺季结束，全球原油供需压力加大，水上浮仓飙升。10月，美国制裁俄罗 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation. The decision of OPEC+ to increase production in December will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, while the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year will be unexpectedly relieved. With the end of the consumption peak season and concerns about demand, along with OPEC+ accelerating production and increased exports from the Middle East, the supply - surplus pattern has become more of a consensus. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Their next meeting is on November 30. This will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The end of the crude oil demand peak season, EIA data shows an unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, but due to increased net exports, the decline in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near the historical high. India may reduce imports of Russian oil due to a potential new tariff agreement with the US. US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers plan to suspend purchasing Russian oil for December delivery [1]. - Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries led to the suspension of crude oil processing at the Ryazan refinery in Russia, and European gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and armed conflicts in Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [1]. - Negative factors such as the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US October ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. - OPEC has adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects that the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter will slow down while supply will further increase [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are also rumors of the Trump administration secretly coordinating a new framework to end the Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in the risk premium of Russian crude oil [1]. b) Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.66% to 455.5 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 451.8 yuan per ton and a maximum of 458.4 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,984 to 39,074 lots [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报 adjusted the global oil shortage in the third quarter of 2025 from 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and adjusted the global oil shortage in 2026 from 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the forecast of global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while previously it was expected to peak in 2030. The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply growth rate forecast for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, and for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. d) Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 14, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels and 5.11% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 227,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 171,000 barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.215 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 698,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October crude oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week ending November 14 decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day, still near the historical high [4]. e) Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.641 million barrels per day, a 1.23% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from lower to higher than the same period last year [4]. - US gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.54% to 8.528 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.839 million barrels per day, a 1.21% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.38% to 3.882 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.798 million barrels per day, a 0.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 2.95% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 行情驱动：短期利空冲击殆尽，地缘利多不明显，中长期面临供大于求风险 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏，放开增产；战争风险升级 1. 对俄制裁临近 2. OPEC+将在明年一季度暂停增产 1.中东局缓和 2.机构对原油过剩预期较为一致 3.美俄重新有会面谈判可能 原油2601： 1.基本面：俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克告诉记者，俄罗斯将在2025年底或2026年初达到其OPEC+石油产量配 额。他指出，俄罗斯已完全完成此前在OPEC+协议下的超产补偿任务，且没有计划自愿减产；乌克兰 总统泽连斯基抵达土耳其以"重启谈判"，报道称美国与俄 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超预期，成 品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。美国对 俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其 子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油 进口的倾向。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗 斯12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持 续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。 利比亚首都的黎波里附 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that oil prices have a bottom support level, with the oil ETF (561360) rising over 1.5% [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that global new energy alternatives are steadily advancing, and starting from Q4 2025, actual supply increases from OPEC+ may be concentrated, alongside low-cost supply from South America, which could highlight the pressure of global crude oil supply surplus [1] - The forecast for Brent crude oil average prices is set at $68 per barrel for 2025 and $62 per barrel for 2026, with specific predictions of $63, $61, and $60 per barrel for Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a high industry concentration, focusing on the energy sector, which fully reflects its cyclical characteristics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The asphalt market is facing a situation where supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and prices are showing a weak and volatile trend. The supply side is affected by refinery conversions to produce other products, and the demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and overall infrastructure investment. Additionally, the excess supply of crude oil and the release of low - price resources from refineries are also contributing to the weakening of asphalt prices [1][4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the estimated domestic asphalt production is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, most of the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were stable. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 4.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1% [1][4]. - Price: OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The release of low - price resources from refineries in the long - term has weakened the basis of asphalt in Shandong, and the spot price is weak. The futures price of asphalt is weakly volatile [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.36% to 3032 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3029 yuan/ton, the highest was 3072 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2515 to 191,962 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 22 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to drop by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 4.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].

发布日期：2025年11月18日 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。沙特阿美全面下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价，其中旗舰产 品阿拉伯轻质原油价格被下调每桶1.20美元。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超 预期，成品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。 美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公 司及其子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，只是特朗普最新表示，希望继续在布达佩斯与普京会晤。 印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭 击，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打 击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应 中断担忧。但 ...