评论： 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月04日 电力设备新能源行业点评 工信部召开光伏企业座谈会，蒙西至京津冀特高压直流输电工程获批 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  电力设备 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王蔚祺 | 010-88005313 | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520080003 | | 证券分析师： | 王晓声 | 010-88005231 | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523050002 | 国信电新观点：1）工信部召开光伏行业制造业企业座谈会，交流无序竞争治理、落后产能退出；2）蒙西 至京津冀±800 千伏直流输电工程取得发改委核准批复。投资建议：建议关注特变电工及多晶硅龙头企业。 风险提示：光伏新增装机需求大幅下滑；行业竞争加剧；贸易壁垒加剧；原材料价格大幅上涨。 光伏 工信部召开光伏行业制造业企业座谈会：7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十 五次制造业企 ...

Group 1 - Public hospitals are the mainstay of China's healthcare system and play a crucial role in advancing the Healthy China initiative, with high-quality development requiring both innovation in medical technology and upgrades in service models and management concepts [1] - The core challenges faced by public hospitals include lagging information technology, an overemphasis on economic performance in evaluations, a shortage of interdisciplinary talent, and inefficient cost control, particularly in tracking low-value consumables [1] - Key improvements for hospitals involve strengthening information infrastructure, cultivating interdisciplinary talent, and establishing collaborative mechanisms across departments to achieve a refined operational system [1] Group 2 - Public hospitals should shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement, exemplified by the implementation of day surgery models that significantly reduce patient wait times and costs [2] - The establishment of an independent day surgery center and centralized management of day surgery patients has improved service efficiency without increasing resource input [2] - The day surgery model complements traditional inpatient services, alleviating bed pressure and optimizing resource allocation by redirecting simple cases to day treatment [2] Group 3 - The construction of smart hospitals is essential for public hospital reform and high-quality development, focusing on smart services, medical applications of AI, and digital management systems [3] - The hospital has achieved notable recognition, ranking 18th in the national top 100 hospitals for innovation and maintaining an 'A+' rating in public hospital performance assessments for six consecutive years [3] - Future developments will prioritize solving clinical issues with advanced diagnostic techniques, compassionate care, and innovative service models to provide comprehensive health protection for the public [3]

Core Viewpoint - The development of public hospitals should focus on high-quality service and efficiency, prioritizing patient health rather than merely expanding scale and technology [1][2] Group 1: Hospital Development Strategies - Shanghai Chest Hospital is enhancing its specialized diagnosis and innovative transformation capabilities, particularly in addressing high-incidence chronic diseases like cancer and cardiovascular diseases [1] - The hospital is exploring a "cardiac-cancer" dual-core model, integrating various disciplines to create a comprehensive disease management system [1] - Emphasis is placed on early disease prevention through lung cancer screening and cardiovascular disease risk identification [1] Group 2: Talent Development - The hospital adopts a "recruit, cultivate, retain" philosophy, focusing on systematic internal talent development alongside the recruitment of key personnel [2] - A five-year development plan is established for different age groups, with a focus on cultivating versatile talents in clinical diagnosis, research, and management [2] - Special attention is given to the systematic training of young talents to ensure sustainable development of the hospital [2] Group 3: Cardiovascular Disease Treatment Innovations - The cardiology department has established specialized sub-disciplines to cover all types and stages of cardiovascular diseases, aiming to become a leading center for cardiovascular treatment [2] - The coronary heart disease sub-specialty is recognized as the first internationally certified chest pain center in China, focusing on precise diagnosis and treatment [2] - Innovations include a rapid response system for emergency cases and optimized outpatient and inpatient processes to enhance patient experience and reduce waiting times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordinated efforts and policy support to achieve these goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market Construction - The basic requirements for advancing the unified national market include "five unifications and one openness," which are unified market infrastructure, unified government behavior standards, unified market supervision and law enforcement, unified resource markets, and continuous expansion of both domestic and foreign openness [1][2]. - Focus areas include addressing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - The meeting called for the integration of domestic and foreign trade, facilitating the path from export to domestic sales, and nurturing a group of high-quality enterprises in both domestic and foreign trade [2]. Group 2: High-Quality Development of Marine Economy - The meeting stressed the importance of top-level design and increased policy support to encourage social capital participation in marine economic development [3]. - Key initiatives include enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology, fostering leading marine technology enterprises, and promoting the development of modern offshore fishing and marine biomedicine [3]. - The meeting also highlighted the need for marine ecological environment protection and the exploration of marine carbon sink accounting [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market interprets the "anti - involution" policy as a price rebound rather than a reversal. Stocks in coal, transportation, and steel industries led the decline, while those in electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology industries led the rise. The semi - annual report pre - increase theme is a visible investment line until mid - July. In the high - level oscillation period, it is advisable to focus on arbitrage opportunities by going long on far - month contracts and short on near - month contracts in the stock index futures market [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, due to low trading liquidity and volatility, and the potential ineffectiveness of sentiment indicators, it is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the short - end performed better than the long - end. The long - end bullish sentiment weakened marginally. In the short term, the bond market is expected to continue to oscillate due to factors such as the central bank's cautious liquidity injection, high local bond supply in July, and potential tariff disturbances [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 21.47, - 16.95, - 48.66, - 63.24 respectively, with changes of 1.22, 2.6, - 12.31, - 15.95 points compared to the previous trading day; the current - month to next - month spreads were 18.6, 4.6, 54.2, 71.8 points respectively, with changes of 0.8, - 0.8, 3.8, - 1.6 points; the positions changed by - 481, - 1877, 1566, 2566 lots respectively [6]. - **Logic**: The market interprets the "anti - involution" policy as a price rebound. After excluding inflation - chain investment opportunities, funds rotate among scattered hot industries. There is a lack of a main line to boost trading volume during the high - level oscillation period [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Data**: The trading volume of the options market rebounded slightly, but the overall trading liquidity remained low. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options dropped by 0.39%, and that of SSE 500 ETF options decreased by 0.18% [2][6]. - **Logic**: The double - low situation of liquidity and volatility, combined with the ineffective sentiment indicators, indicates that the index has resistance above and the market will continue to oscillate [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 64924, 51486, 24843, 72609 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 6969, 5555, - 101, 3741 lots; the positions were 206020, 156476, 115715, 117980 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 499, - 1347, 120, - 1737 lots. Other spread and basis data are also provided [7]. - **Logic**: The long - end bullish sentiment weakened marginally due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the profit - taking motivation of long - end futures. The central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the local bond supply in July may be high, limiting the downward space of interest rates. Tariff disturbances may increase after July 9 [2][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain an oscillating trend strategy; pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; appropriately focus on basis widening; the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, up from 49.5 in the previous month. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.9, higher than the expected and previous values. The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 14.7 million, higher than the expected 10.6 million [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: On July 3, the Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology hosted a manufacturing enterprise symposium, where 14 photovoltaic enterprises and industry association representatives exchanged views on various aspects and put forward policy suggestions [9]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US non - farm payrolls increased by 14.7 million in June, higher than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The private - sector employment increased by only 7.4 million, the lowest since last October, mainly driven by the healthcare industry [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [11][15][27].

行业总览 上游：1）能源：昨日国际油价同比回升，近期处震荡趋势。2）农业：鸡蛋价格维持回落。 宏观日报 | 2025-07-04 关注能源上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注光伏行业政策推进。 1）工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十五次制造业企业座 谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业协会情况介绍和意见建议。李乐成强调，要 聚焦重点难点，依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出， 实现健康、可持续发展。 服务行业：关注离境退税相关政策推进。 1）上海市商务委等6个部门印发《上海市优化离境退税消费环境行动方 案（2025-2027年）》的通知，其中提出，到2027年，上海市离境退税商店超3000家、网点超10000个，"即买即退" 商店占比超80%，商业集中场所设立集中退付服务点的占比超80%，在入境人员消费相对集中的中心城区，实现离 境退税商店全覆盖。离境退税消费规模比2024年翻两番，国产品牌退税销售额占比提升至30%以上，更好地把入境 流量转化成消费增量，有效扩大入境消费，畅通国内国际双循环，提升上海国际消费中心城市能级。 ...

Group 1: Cultural Industry and International Expansion - The Zhejiang Provincial Secretary Wang Hao emphasized the importance of promoting cultural exports, particularly in online literature, web series, and online games, referred to as the "new three samples" [1] - The market size for online literature exports is projected to exceed 5 billion RMB in 2024, with overseas users reaching over 350 million [1] - The actual sales revenue of independently developed Chinese games in overseas markets is expected to reach 18.557 billion USD in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.39% [1] Group 2: Policy Support and Initiatives - The Zhejiang provincial government has outlined measures to support the internationalization of the gaming industry, aiming to cultivate high-quality 3A game projects and create an industry cluster for game exports [2] - The Chinese government has called for the orderly opening of the internet and cultural sectors, aiming to enhance international cultural exchanges and cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed developing a comprehensive industry chain for game exports, from IP creation to overseas operations [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Cultural Output - The gaming industry is recognized as a new engine for cultural output and economic growth, with various provinces, including Guangdong, implementing policies to enhance the competitiveness of their gaming industries [3] - The cultural "new three samples" are expected to accelerate their international expansion due to collaborative efforts from multiple stakeholders [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of adhering to the Party's leadership and enhancing the functions of various coordination institutions to form a strong working synergy [2] - The focus is on actively serving and integrating into the national unified market construction, improving resource allocation, and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy through innovative technological breakthroughs [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen reforms and innovations to ensure the steady and sustainable practice of Chinese-style modernization in Xi'an [2] Group 2 - The meeting called for a focus on key tasks such as flood prevention, summer supply of electricity and water, and improving the efficiency of the petition work to ensure public safety and social stability [3] - It was stressed to implement "sunshine enrollment" requirements to ensure that the enrollment process for compulsory education is standardized, fair, and orderly [3] - The meeting also discussed the importance of supporting youth organizations and guiding young people to contribute to the high-quality development of Xi'an [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of Xi Jinping's important discussions on inspection work and the relevant regulations, aiming to strengthen political guarantees for the innovative advancement of Xi'an's modernization practice [1][2]. Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the sense of responsibility and mission in carrying out inspection and supervision work, focusing on the essence and practical requirements of the regulations [1][2]. - It was stressed that political inspection should be directed towards the implementation of the Party Central Committee's decisions, closely monitoring power, responsibilities, and issues raised by the public [2]. - The meeting called for a thorough approach to problem rectification, including regular self-checks on the rectification of central and provincial inspections, ensuring that issues are resolved and mechanisms improved [2]. Group 2 - The focus is on supporting key initiatives such as the "Three Years" activities and the "Eight Hard Battles," ensuring effective supervision and detailed monitoring of the implementation of major tasks [2]. - There is an emphasis on solidifying work responsibilities and effectively utilizing the results of inspections to accelerate high-quality economic and social development in Xi'an [2].

Core Viewpoint - The railway construction industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments and new line constructions planned for the coming years, positioning it as a crucial component of national infrastructure and economic development [1][5][24]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Categories - The railway industry encompasses railway construction and operation, which can be further divided into railway engineering construction, transportation services, vehicle and equipment manufacturing, and maintenance [3][5]. - Railway engineering construction includes both pre-station and post-station projects, covering various aspects such as land acquisition, track laying, and electrical systems [3][5]. Group 2: Current Development Status - In 2024, China's railway investment is projected to reach 850.6 billion yuan, an increase of 86.1 billion yuan from 2023, with 3,113 kilometers of new lines expected to be put into operation, including 2,457 kilometers of high-speed rail [5][7]. - By 2025, the government aims to complete railway infrastructure investments of 590 billion yuan and put into operation 2,600 kilometers of new lines, focusing on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [5][7]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The upstream of the railway construction industry involves sectors such as steel, cement, and machinery manufacturing, while the midstream includes engineering construction and integration services [9]. - The downstream consists of railway operation and logistics services [9]. Group 4: Development Environment and Policies - The railway construction industry is supported by various national policies aimed at investment management, technical standards, market reforms, and green development [11][12]. - Recent policies emphasize the importance of standardized management, information sharing, and sustainable operational responsibilities for railway projects [12]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The railway construction industry in China is characterized by a concentrated competitive landscape, with leading companies like China Railway Construction Corporation and China Railway Group dominating the market [13][16]. - These major players possess significant experience and advanced technology, allowing them to secure a large number of railway projects [13][16]. Group 6: Key Enterprises - China Railway Construction Corporation is recognized as one of the largest and most capable construction groups globally, offering a comprehensive range of services across various sectors [16][19]. - China Railway Group has a broad business scope, including design, construction, and manufacturing, and is known for its advanced technologies in bridge and tunnel construction [21][22]. Group 7: Future Development Trends - The railway construction industry in China is shifting towards high-quality development, focusing on smart, green, and international standards, with plans for further optimization of the railway network [24]. - The industry is expected to play a vital role in supporting China's modernization efforts and has significant market potential for future growth [24].