文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ◆◆◆ 大家对美债的关注度日渐提高。 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，全面讲解美元债券基金投资。 比如： 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 美元债券 」即可领取～ · 想投资美元债券类资产，有哪些方式？ · 美元债基金，当前投资价值如何？ · 投资美元债基金，会有哪些风险？ 2025年1季度GDP同比增长5.4%。 相对2024年四季度，环比增长1.2%。 GDP增长和市场有啥关系呢? (1) 股价是长期跟随上市公司的盈利增 长走的。 指数点数=估值*盈利。 估值在一定范围内波动。 如果上市公司盈利增长，也会推动指数长 期上涨。 以A股中证全指为例。 2012-2014年5星级时，中证全指在2700- 2800点上下。 2018年底5星级，中证全指在3400-3500 点上下。 到了最近一年多5星级，中证全指在4800 点上下。 同样是5星级，熊市底部的点数，每隔几 年也会提高。 这主要就是上市公司盈利增长带来的。 (2) 盈利增长，跟 GDP增长速度，不完 全一致，但有相关性。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

德国经济部：德国政府预测2025年经济将陷入停滞，预测德国明年GDP将增长1%。 ...

俄联邦政府网站当地时间4月23日发布消息称，俄联邦政府总理米舒斯京在俄财政部部务会扩大会议中 表示，2024年，俄罗斯经济继续保持高速增长。他透露，根据最新数据，俄罗斯2024年的 国内生产总 值（GDP）增速达到4.3%，比俄联邦统计局公布的初步数据高0.2个百分点。米舒斯京表示，去年12 月，俄罗斯的GDP增速达到4.5%。同时，公共债务占比有所下降，预算赤字保持在计划以内。本周， 国际货币基金组织将俄罗斯今年GDP的增长率预期从1月份的1.4%上调至1.5%。同时，该组织预测，俄 罗斯2025年的通胀率将达到9.3%。 ...

中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞分析，根据测算，参考去年"两重""两新"的政策效果，今年1.3万亿元的 超长期特别国债或拉动GDP增长1.7至1.9个百分点。（上证报） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year at constant prices, with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter increase compared to Q4 2024. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively [4]. - The added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.8 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - The added value of the service industry increased by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, the service industry production index increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - In Q1 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point compared to the whole of last year. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8.3% [4]. - In Q1 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January - February [5]. - In Q1 2025, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In March, it was 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month [5]. - In Q1 2025, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 12,179 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.5% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.6% after deducting price factors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 10.3013 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase. Exports were 6.1314 trillion yuan, a 6.9% increase, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a 6.0% decrease [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates from 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing trends in different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and services [7]. - Contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth are provided, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related sectors [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The added value of large - scale industrial enterprises showed different growth rates in different industries and time periods. For example, in March 2025, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year [4][21]. - Different industries such as coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and农副食品 processing had varying year-on-year growth rates of added value in different months [21]. Main Output of Large - Scale Industry - Output data of various industrial products from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including energy products (e.g., crude oil, coal), industrial raw materials (e.g., ethylene, chemical fiber), and finished products (e.g., automobiles, smartphones) [23]. Industry Electricity Consumption - Electricity consumption growth rates of different industries from 2023 - 2024 are provided, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [31]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - In January - February 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. Different industries had different profit growth or decline situations [34]. - The profit situation of different industrial categories (mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) in January - February 2025 is presented, with mining showing a decline, manufacturing an increase, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water a significant increase [38]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of February 2025, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.37 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, with an improvement in the inventory situation compared to December last year [43]. - Inventory data of large - scale industrial enterprises in different industries and time periods from 2024 - 2025 are provided, showing trends in different industrial chains [45]. Price Index CPI - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Different categories of consumer goods had different price changes [48]. - CPI data of different consumer goods categories from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and transportation [49]. PPI - In March 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with different price changes in production and living materials [55]. - PPI data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are provided, such as mining, raw materials, and processing industries [55][58]. Real Estate - Data on the price indices (year - on - year and month - on - month) of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from 2015 - 2025 are presented, showing different trends in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [62][64].

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Beijing's GDP reached 12,159.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of the previous year [1][3] - Fixed asset investment grew by 24% year-on-year, with significant contributions from effective investments in equipment and construction [3][4] Sector Contributions - The information service industry, financial sector, and industrial sector together accounted for over half of Beijing's GDP, contributing nearly 80% to economic growth [3][4] - The value added in the information service industry increased by 9.2%, while the financial sector grew by 8% and industrial output rose by 6.8% [3][4] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales in Beijing shifted from a decline of 1.2% last year to a growth of 6.2% in the first quarter, with pure commodity residential sales increasing by 23.7% [4][5] Innovation and New Industries - Over 70% of large and medium-sized enterprises in Beijing engaged in R&D activities, with R&D expenses rising by 5.5%, particularly in the new energy vehicle and electronics sectors [6][7] - The digital economy's value added grew by 8.3%, with core industries expanding by 9.7% [6] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The number of newly established enterprises in Beijing increased by 22% year-on-year, with the technology service sector accounting for nearly 40% of new businesses [7] - Consumer confidence is on the rise, supported by various policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [4][8]

国家统计局16日发布的数据显示，初步核算，一季度国内生产总值（GDP）318758亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。 截至2025年4月17日 13:37，中证500质量成长指数(930939)下跌0.14%。成分股方面涨跌互现，中国汽研(601965)领涨5.83%，乖宝宠物(301498)上涨4.24%， 杰瑞股份(002353)上涨2.56%；益丰药房(603939)领跌3.06%，湖南黄金(002155)下跌3.06%，赤峰黄金(600988)下跌2.87%。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨 0.22%，最新价报0.92元。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建 议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。) Wind数据显示： 规模方面，500质量成长ETF近1周规模增长2172.20万元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金1/3。 份额方面，500质量成长ETF近1周份额增长1500.00万份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金1/3。 资金流入方面，500质量 ...

Investment Rating - The report reverts to a non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth projected at 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession [4]. Core Insights - President Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional country-specific tariffs, maintaining prior tariffs and a minimum 10% reciprocal tariff, with expectations of further sector-specific tariffs [4]. - The total effective tariff rate is expected to increase by approximately 15 percentage points due to these tariffs [4]. - The previous shift to a recession baseline was reversed following the announcement, leading to a forecast of a peak core PCE inflation rate of 3.5% and three consecutive 25 basis point "insurance" cuts by the Fed in mid-2025 [4]. Summary by Sections - **Tariff Announcement**: President Trump authorized a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for countries that have not retaliated, while the tariff rate on imports from China will rise to 125% [4]. - **Tariff Impact**: The report anticipates a total effective tariff rate increase of about 15 percentage points, combining existing tariffs and new sector-specific tariffs at a 25% rate [4]. - **Economic Forecast**: The report projects a GDP growth of 0.5% for Q4 2025, a peak core PCE inflation rate of 3.5%, and a 45% probability of recession, along with expected Fed rate cuts [4].

关税可能导致GDP增长和投资下降。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（2026年FOMC票委）：比预期更严重的经济衰退可能会引发新的 前景。 ...

消息人士：意大利预测2025年GDP增长为0.6%，而9月份设定的目标为1.2%。 ...