Core Viewpoint - The company expects a low impact from Trump's tariffs on its business operations [1] Group 1 - The company assesses that the tariffs will not significantly affect its overall performance [1] - The management believes that the current market conditions and demand will mitigate potential negative effects from the tariffs [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company reported sales for the quarter were nearly $4,600,000,000, up 5.6% or 5.1% on a daily constant currency basis [8][11] - Operating margins for the company were 14.9%, down 50 basis points compared to 2024 [11] - Diluted EPS finished the quarter at $9.97, up $0.21 or 2.2% compared to the prior year period [11] - Operating cash flow came in at $377 million, allowing the company to return a total of $336,000,000 to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - High-tech Solutions segment sales were up 2.5% on a reported basis or up 2.8% on a daily constant currency basis, driven by volume growth and modest price inflation [12] - Endless assortment segment sales increased 19.7% or 16.3% on a daily constant currency basis, with Zoro U.S. up 20% and MonotaRO achieving 16.4% growth [15] - Operating margins for the endless assortment segment increased by 200 basis points to 9.9% [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MRO market remained muted but was softer than expected, with strong performance from contractor and healthcare customers helping offset slower growth in other areas [12] - Preliminary total company July sales were up slightly north of 6% on a daily constant currency basis, aided by softer comps in the prior year period [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on helping customers drive efficiencies, lower purchasing costs, and improve inventory management [5][6] - Strategic investments in product information and digital capabilities are enhancing the company's supply chain [7] - The company is committed to supporting local communities with emergency response and recovery efforts [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The external environment continues to present uncertainty, but the company remains confident in its ability to deliver value [5][8] - The company anticipates continued LIFO headwinds and further price cost timing pressures impacting performance in the back half of the year [9] - The updated outlook for 2025 reflects a lower gross margin guide, now expected to be between 38.6% and 38.9% [22] Other Important Information - The company is adjusting its sales outlook to reflect the latest FX rates and pricing actions, with total company sales for the third quarter expected to be up north of 5% on a daily constant currency basis [22][23] - The company plans to continue optimizing Zoro's assortment, with a net SKU decline of 1,100,000 in the quarter [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of LIFO accounting on operating income - Management noted that if the company were on FIFO, the second half outlook would not have included the negative impacts of LIFO, but underlying operations would remain similar [28] Question: Progression from Q3 to Q4 - Management indicated that pricing will continue to build with the September pricing change, leading to improved gross margins in Q4 [30] Question: Decision-making process for pricing actions - Management decided to keep price increases on a normal schedule for customer stability, despite being slightly upside down in price cost [37] Question: Zoro's pricing optimization and SKU reduction - The pricing decision has been in the works for about a year, focusing on improving customer experience by eliminating low-volume items [40] Question: Customer demand and market dynamics - Management acknowledged that while market demand is expected to be muted, they feel confident in their ability to realize prices despite lower market demand [113] Question: Government customer dynamics - Management reported stability in government contracts, with no significant cancellations impacting the business [120]

美联储博斯蒂克：如果关税成功，美联储不能视而不见。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储理事沃勒称，关税将对价格产生一次性影响。 ...

德国总理默茨：将与美国谈判钢铁出口配额 金十数据8月1日讯，德国总理默茨周五表示，欧盟将与美国就钢铁问题进行谈判，重点关注可在不征收 过高关税的情况下出口的配额。双方上个月达成了一项贸易协议，协议中，大多数产品的关税定为 15%，但某些行业的谈判仍在继续，其中包括钢铁和铝，这些产品的关税为50%。默茨表示，现在的任 务是制定"细节"。默茨称，该协议对整个欧洲工业来说都是"痛苦的"，但他表示欧盟还没有能力引发全 面的贸易争端。他说："那只会有输家，而最大的输家可能是我们欧洲人。" ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company, but it indicates strong performance and positive growth trends, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors. Core Insights - Apple reported FY3Q25 revenue of $94.0 billion, exceeding market expectations of $89.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.4% [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.57, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.43 [1][6] - Overall gross margin was 46.5%, at the high end of guidance but down 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to approximately $800 million in tariff costs [1][6] - iPhone revenue reached $44.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with double-digit growth in emerging markets and a healthy channel inventory [2][7] - Services revenue was $27.4 billion, also up 13% year-over-year, with strong performance across both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - Management guidance for 4Q25 indicates expected revenue growth in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range, with gross margin projected between 46% and 47% [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue: $94.0 billion, YoY growth: 9.6%, QoQ decline: 1.4% [1][6] - EPS: $1.57, exceeding expectations [1][6] - Overall gross margin: 46.5%, down 60 bps QoQ due to tariffs [1][6] Product Performance - iPhone revenue: $44.6 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in emerging markets [2][7] - iPhone 16 series shipments grew by double digits compared to the iPhone 15 series [2][7] - Revenue in China increased by 4% QoQ, driven by subsidy programs [2][7] Services Performance - Services revenue: $27.4 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - U.S. App Store achieved double-digit growth, reaching an all-time high [2][8] Future Guidance - 4Q25 revenue expected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range [3][9] - Gross margin projected between 46% and 47%, including approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs [3][9] - Operating expenses expected to be between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion [3][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter sales were $1.1 billion, down 6% compared to 2024, primarily due to soft demand in residential end markets, automotive, and hydraulic cylinders, along with restructuring-related sales attrition [16][20] - Adjusted EBIT for the second quarter was $76 million, up $4 million from the previous year, driven by metal margin expansion and disciplined cost management [19] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter was $0.30, a 3% increase from $0.29 in the same quarter last year [19][25] - Total debt was reduced by $143 million to $1.8 billion, leading to a decrease in net debt to trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA to 3.5 times [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bedding product sales decreased by 11% year-over-year, with weakness in mattresses and adjustable bases offsetting strong trade rod and wire sales [16][17] - Specialized products segment saw a 5% decline, with aerospace growth of 6% year-over-year offset by declines in automotive and hydraulic cylinders [18] - Furniture, flooring, and textile products sales were down 2%, with positive growth in work furniture and textiles but declines in home furniture and flooring products [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. mattress market production was down mid to high single digits, with total mattress consumption estimated to be down low single digits year-over-year [17][18] - Tariff impacts varied across businesses, with the recent tariff changes being a net positive overall, although concerns about inflation and consumer demand persist [10][12] - The company is actively shifting production and sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly in the bedding segment where steel tariffs have led to expanded metal margins [11][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is nearing completion of its restructuring plan, which is expected to strengthen profitability and balance sheet [26] - Future cash flow will be directed towards organic growth investments, strategic acquisitions, and potential share repurchases [27][22] - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and profitability while navigating macroeconomic uncertainties [15][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer health, noting an uptick in demand as consumer confidence improves, particularly around holiday periods [50][51] - The company anticipates continued challenges in the bedding segment due to customer changes and promotional dynamics [66] - Management remains confident in the company's position to leverage improvements once consumer demand fully reengages [27][26] Other Important Information - Restructuring costs are now expected to be between $15 million to $25 million for 2025, down from previous estimates, with total restructuring costs projected at $65 million to $75 million [23] - The company maintained its full-year 2025 sales guidance, expecting sales in the range of $4 billion to $4.3 billion, reflecting a decline of 2% to 9% compared to 2024 [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on bedding business consumption numbers - Management explained that U.S. spring volume was down 9%, with a third of that attributed to sales attrition from restructuring, indicating that they are not losing market share [31][37] Question: Metal margin acceleration and tariff impacts - Management confirmed that metal margins are expanding sequentially and year-over-year, positively impacted by steel tariffs [38][40] Question: Changes in restructuring plan and facility retention - Management noted that the decision to retain certain facilities was based on updated market assessments and customer relationships [41][43] Question: Consumer health and macro uncertainty - Management indicated that consumer confidence has improved, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter compared to the first quarter [50][52] Question: Pricing strategies to offset tariff impacts - Management stated that they are working with suppliers to absorb tariff costs and are passing through pricing when necessary, maintaining pricing power across segments [55] Question: Segment guidance and operating margin expectations - Management provided guidance indicating expected sales and volume declines across segments, with varying margin expectations [56][57] Question: Home furniture performance and market dynamics - Management discussed the bifurcation in the home furniture market, with higher price point furniture performing well while mid-price point customers faced volume declines due to tariff impacts [79][81]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of upcoming tariffs on oil prices and the easing of sanctions threats against Russia, highlighting the market's need for a risk premium due to potential secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Oil Prices - Oil futures are fluctuating between slight increases and decreases as the tariff deadline approaches, with tariffs set to be implemented on August 7 [1] - The tariffs are expected to heighten concerns regarding oil demand, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Rystad Energy's report indicates that oil prices are supported by the need to maintain a risk premium for potential secondary sanctions against Russian oil importers for at least one week [1] - The anticipated weak economic growth and oil demand outlook is negatively impacting oil prices, primarily affecting the refined oil market [1]

智通财经APP获悉，亚马逊(AMZN.US)召开2025 年二季度财报电话会。公司第二季度 AWS 业务增长 17.5%，目前年化收入运行率已超过 1230 亿美元。公司持续帮助各类规模的组织加速向云端转型，并 与 PepsiCo、Airbnb、Peloton 等众多公司签订了新的 AWS 协议。在快速发展的生成式 AI 领域，AWS 正在构建一个规模庞大、快速增长(同比增长三位数百分比)、数十亿美元的业务，目前需求量大于所能 提供的供应量。 Q: 能否详细阐释关税在供应商、Amazon 和消费者之间的分摊机制，以及贵公司是否预测未来会有任何 变化? A: 公司目前仍无法确切预知关税的未来走向，尤其是在中国市场的具体实施细则。他指出，当公司为 第一方零售业务预购的商品库存以及第三方销售合作伙伴预先部署的商品耗尽后，情况将如何演变，目 前也难以判断。更关键的是，如果关税导致成本随时间推移而上升，公司目前尚不确定这些额外成本最 终将由供应商、Amazon 自身还是消费者来承担。然而，可以分享的是，根据今年上半年的观察，市场 需求并未出现显著下降，并且平均销售价格(ASP)也没有出现大规模上涨的现象。尽管上半年保持 ...