特朗普：这是一份为期一年的协议，到期可能会延长。对华关税将从57%下调47%。明年4月将会访问中国，之后习近平再访问美国。我将与习近平在乌克兰问题上合作，争取有所作为。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：与习近平的会晤非常棒，我们做了很多决定。将会就一些非常重要的事情给出结论。同意习近平将竭尽全力阻止芬太尼泛滥。（中国）立即开始购买大豆，所有稀土问题都已解决。我们确实讨论过芯片问题，中国将与英伟达和其他公司洽谈芯片采购事宜。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but maintains a hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts, indicating no consensus on a December rate cut due to the stable employment market [1][3] - The Fed has officially decided to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, ceasing the monthly liquidity contraction of $40 billion, and will adjust the structure of maturing asset reinvestments to focus on Treasury securities instead of MBS [2][6] - Powell highlighted that the government shutdown could negatively impact the economy, with previous estimates suggesting a $18 billion loss, but current employment and inflation trends remain stable [3][5] Group 2 - The Fed's description of inflation and employment remains largely unchanged, but the economic outlook has become more optimistic, indicating moderate economic expansion [2][3] - The current level of bank reserves is approaching a liquidity threshold of 9% of GDP, which is critical for maintaining financial stability, as a drop below this level could lead to liquidity risks [6][7] - The potential for the Fed to restart normal balance sheet expansion is contingent on the increase of non-reserve liabilities, which currently represent 53% of the Fed's total liabilities, still below the 60.6% observed in September 2019 [8] Group 3 - The average tariff level in the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.4% to 17.9% by 2025, contributing to higher CPI for imported goods, with current consumer exposure to tariffs at approximately 35% [4][5] - The transmission of tariffs to inflation may increase, potentially invalidating the notion of "transitory inflation" as the burden shifts more towards consumers [4][5] - The dollar index is expected to remain stable around 100, supported by resilient corporate capital expenditures, while the stock market outlook remains positive due to the synergy between AI investments and economic growth [9][10]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate from a target range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00% is not guaranteed for December, with significant disagreement among FOMC members [2][8][9] - The Fed plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift towards maintaining a stable balance sheet size [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth slowing since the beginning of the year, attributed to a decline in labor supply and reduced immigration [3][30] - Despite some companies announcing layoffs, initial unemployment claims remain stable, suggesting no immediate deterioration in the labor market [3][30][40] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past year, driven by tariff impacts on goods [4][21] - Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be around 2.3%-2.4%, indicating that non-tariff inflation is not significantly deviating from the target [21][31] Economic Activity - Economic growth is projected to be moderate, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [2][37] - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may offset some negative impacts from the government shutdown [2][37] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with the current size at approximately 21% of nominal GDP [9][10] - The Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [10][18] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for a rate cut in December, but the Fed emphasizes that this is not a foregone conclusion [11][12] - The ongoing government shutdown may complicate data collection and impact future policy decisions, leading to a more cautious approach [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market regained upward momentum during intraday trading as the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US and the FOMC meeting approached. The London gold price rebounded after a sharp correction, and the London silver price regained the $48 mark. The tariff news was optimistic, causing market risk aversion to recede and increasing market volatility. Trump's tariff negotiations with Southeast Asian countries and the initial optimistic Sino - US tariff consultations were short - term negative for the gold price. The US September CPI was lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two interest rate cuts this year. Affected by the previous sharp correction, the trading sentiment was cautious, with strong profit - taking sentiment among bulls, but there was also strong buying demand at key support levels. Most Fed voting members supported restarting the easing path, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year were the market's general expectation. Before the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US, the long - short game in the market intensified. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the continued US government shutdown provided bottom support. However, if the Sino - US talks achieved substantial results, the gold price might continue to correct. It is recommended to focus on range - bound trading. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 880 - 920 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 910.88 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 11338 yuan/kilogram, up 289 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 168691 lots, down 7225 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 304414 lots, down 17462 lots - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net open interest: 110656 lots, up 2063 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net open interest: 85919 lots, up 3368 lots - Gold warehouse receipts: 87816 kilograms, up 801 kilograms; Silver warehouse receipts: 653828 kilograms, down 3599 kilograms [2] 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 904.7 yuan/gram, down 6.71 yuan; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11272 yuan/kilogram, up 109 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 6.18 yuan/gram, up 0.53 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: - 66 yuan/kilogram, down 175 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1038.92 tons, unchanged; Silver ETF holdings: 15209.57 tons, down 131.22 tons - Gold CFTC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; Silver CTFC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts - Gold total supply (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; Silver total supply (yearly): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces - Gold total demand (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; Silver global total demand (yearly): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 36.03%, up 2.69 percentage points; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 26.86%, up 1.96 percentage points - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 26.17%, down 1.51 percentage points; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 26.18%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Senate, with a 54 - to - 45 vote, failed again in a procedural vote to advance the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" aimed at ending the government shutdown. The bill, passed by the House of Representatives, proposed to temporarily resume government operations at the current funding level and needed 60 votes in the Senate to proceed. This was the 13th vote on the bill, and it still failed to reach the required threshold, meaning the government shutdown would continue - On October 28, Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Kōichi and US President Trump signed an agreement to promote Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US - ADP, the "small non - farm" data publisher, announced that it would launch weekly employment data from this week to track the US labor market dynamics more frequently. The first report showed that in the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 - The Conference Board data showed that the US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, falling from 95.6 in September to 94.6, the lowest level since April this year. The expectation index dropped to 71.5, the lowest since June [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is in a phase of correction due to reduced short - term safe - haven premiums for gold and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - The copper market is expected to maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term, as the conversion of market attention into actual transactions and macro - level support are needed for price increases [15]. - The aluminum market has seen strong price performance due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. Future price trends depend on the Fed's interest rate decision and potential capital movements [36]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China compared to overseas. Low inventory supports prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - level upward drivers [59]. - The nickel industry has different trends for different products. Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong, nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - The tin market is expected to remain strong in the short term as supply is weaker than demand and supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve quickly [89]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see increased demand, which may support prices. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - The industrial silicon market may see a slight increase in price as production cuts are expected during the dry season, but price increases are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The short - term safe - haven premium of gold is weakened, and the precious metals market is in a correction phase. The实物贴水 has expanded to 6.18 yuan/gram, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, price ratios, and inventory data [4][11][14]. Copper - **Market Outlook**: The spot price and premium are weak, and the market needs to convert attention into actual transactions and have macro - level support for price increases. It will maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [15]. - **Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai and London copper futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data are provided [16][22][32]. Aluminum - **Market Analysis**: Macro policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and overseas supply disruptions have driven up prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [36]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [37][46][53]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. The domestic supply is stable, and overseas production has been cut. The price difference has widened, and low inventory supports prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the export window and macro - level drivers [59]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of zinc futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [60][67][71]. Nickel - **Industry Trends**: Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong due to new regulations and high downstream demand. Nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [75]. Tin - **Market Forecast**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and short - term supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve. The Shanghai tin market is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of tin futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [90][92][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [103][107][111]. Silicon Industry - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, price differences, and inventory data [114][123][142].

特朗普周三在APEC峰会上向企业领导人发表讲话时表示，今年早些时候，他曾威胁要对印度和巴基斯坦征收250%的关税，以帮助解决两国的冲突。特朗普称印度总理莫迪是“长相最和善的人”，也是一个渴望战斗的“杀手”。🗒️昨日消息称，莫迪本周缺席了在马来西亚举行的峰会，目的是避免与特朗普会面，进而避免提及巴基斯坦问题。 ...

特朗普：目前为止行程愉快。预计会降低对中国与芬太尼相关的关税。将与中国讨论农民与芬太尼问题。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：本周四将与习近平会晤，我认为会晤会取得成果。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently facing challenges in obtaining formal labor market data, which is crucial for making informed decisions as they approach a neutral interest rate [1][2][3] - There is a noticeable slowdown in payroll growth without a corresponding increase in unemployment, indicating potential slack in the labor market [3][4] - A mismatch in job openings and available labor is evident, particularly affecting college graduates, suggesting that the labor market may be experiencing both cyclical slowing and structural issues [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a flat or declining supply of labor, rather than significant layoffs [2][4] - Businesses report unfilled positions in sectors like construction, highlighting a mismatch between job availability and candidate qualifications [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates is influenced by the need to balance labor market conditions with inflation targets [6][7] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Current inflation rates are above the long-term target of 2%, complicating the Fed's strategy as they consider moving towards a neutral rate [6][9] - The impact of tariffs on growth is mixed; while they may slow growth in the short term, they could lead to increased investment in the long run [11][12] - Global economic conditions are influenced by factors such as aging populations and over-leverage, but there are also positive indicators like potential productivity growth from data center investments [15][16]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between a weakening job market that supports lower interest rates and rising inflation that suggests maintaining or increasing rates [3][19] - The upcoming decision on interest rates will be influenced by missing data due to the U.S. government shutdown, particularly merchandise trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau [4][19] - The value of tariffs collected by the Treasury has quadrupled as a percentage of total imports within four months, indicating significant changes in trade dynamics [5][16] Trade Data Impact - The impact of new tariffs that went into effect in August is unknown due to the lack of released data, which is critical for understanding their immediate effects on trade [6][10] - Countries accounting for 18.61% of U.S. trade are subject to these new tariffs, and their effects on trade patterns remain to be seen [7][10] - The end of the de minimis exemption, allowing tariff-free imports valued under $800, has led to a surge in low-value shipments, particularly from China, totaling $16 billion in July [11][10] Trade Deficit Concerns - The U.S. trade deficit may have exceeded $100 billion for the fifth time in the first eight months of the year, raising questions about the effectiveness of tariffs [12][13] - A sudden drop in the trade deficit could provide comfort to the Fed, while another month above $100 billion could influence their decision-making [13][19] - The Supreme Court's expedited decision on the constitutionality of tariffs may impact the Fed's economic decisions, as they lack critical data [14][19] Import Anomalies - Three primary import anomalies contributing to the large U.S. trade deficit include gold, computer servers, and pharmaceuticals, which could change and affect the economy [15] - The tariff revenue as a percentage of total imports has increased from 2.3% to over 10%, indicating a significant rise in trade costs [16][17] - The August data will not include most tariffs against major trade partners, which represent nearly 40% of U.S. trade, complicating the Fed's analysis [18][19]

Core Points - The initial consensus reached between China and the U.S. on trade issues after intense negotiations indicates a shift in the dynamics of their trade relationship [1][3] - The U.S. has focused on key areas such as rare earth materials, soybeans, and fentanyl, aiming to pressure China into concessions [3][5] - The recent negotiations in Kuala Lumpur have reportedly made substantial progress, with indications that the U.S. will not impose new high tariffs on Chinese exports [5][7] Group 1 - The U.S. displayed a strong attitude during negotiations, with threats of imposing tariffs as high as 500% on Chinese goods, which have now been retracted [1][5] - The discussions included critical topics such as shipping fees under Section 301, extension of tariff suspension periods, and enforcement cooperation, suggesting a comprehensive approach to resolving trade tensions [5][7] - The acknowledgment from U.S. Treasury Secretary that no new 100% tariffs will be considered reflects significant progress in the negotiations [5][7] Group 2 - The trade conflict has broader implications, as high tariffs not only affect China but also have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, impacting American households [7][8] - China has alternative export channels, such as the China-Europe Railway Express, which can alleviate export pressures, while the U.S. remains heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing for consumer goods [8] - The ongoing negotiations highlight the importance of cooperation between the two nations, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through collaboration rather than conflict [8]