Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook warns that despite recent easing in inflation data, tariffs may lead to a resurgence in inflation and pressure on the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Cook highlights that recent trade policy trends significantly increase the likelihood of upward inflation and cooling labor markets [1] - The preferred inflation indicators of the Federal Reserve show a core inflation rate of 2.5% and an overall inflation rate of 2.1% as of April, indicating a gradual decline in inflation [1] - Cook cautions that the recent progress in inflation may be temporary, as price increases related to trade policy changes could complicate further reductions in inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Interest Rates - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates, with market expectations suggesting that rate cuts may not occur until September [2] - Cook emphasizes that the current interest rate levels provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility to respond to economic changes [2] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicates that there may only be one rate cut this year due to most inflation indicators remaining high [2]

美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，尽管美国经济不确定性加剧，4月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升，好于预期和前值，并且招聘活动有所回升，显示劳动力需 求依然健康。 美国4月JOLTS职位空缺739.1万人，预期710万人，前值从719.2万人小幅上修至720万人。回顾上个月数据，当时JOLTS职位空缺创半年新低，大幅不及预 期。 自2022年3月创下1218万人的纪录以来，由于美联储大幅加息导致需求放缓，JOLTS职位空缺在大部分时间里大体呈现下降的态势。此前几个月伴随着美联 储降息，JOLTS数据一度出现反弹。4月的JOLTS再次反弹。总的来说，JOLTS职位空缺数据波动较大，每月可能会出现高达50万个的变动。 经济学家更倾向于从整体趋势看待JOLTS报告，过去一年职位空缺大致稳定在700万至800万之间。 美联储官员们密切关注的职位空缺与失业人数之比保持在1.0，与疫情前的水平一致。而在2022年，该比例一度达到2.0。这是衡量劳动力供需平衡的一个关 键指标。 分行业来看，4月职位空缺的增长主要由私营行业推动，包括专业和商业服务、医疗保健和社会援助。虽然州和地方教育部门的职位空缺减少拖累了整体政 府岗位，但联邦政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes indicate concerns among several board members regarding anticipated price pressures related to tariffs, including rising consumer prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains healthy, with low employee turnover and limited layoffs noted by some board members [1]

目前来看，这种疲软尚未反映在数据中，因此美联储暂时维持利率不变的立场。市场和政策制定者正密 切关注本周五即将公布的5月份官方就业报告，市场预期该报告将显示就业增长速度放缓，而失业率仍 保持稳定。 数据显示，4月份招聘人数升至近一年最高水平，显示企业在持续吸纳劳动力。然而，同期裁员人数升 至去年10月以来的最高点，而选择主动辞职的人数则有所下降，这表明人们对跳槽或找到更好工作的信 心下降。 另一个值得关注的指标是"每名失业者对应的职位空缺数"，这一比例目前为1.0，回到了新冠疫情前的 水平。相比之下，这一比例在2022年曾一度达到2.0，表明当时职位空缺远大于求职人数。美联储官员 通常将该数据视为衡量劳动力市场供需平衡的重要参考。 不过，也有部分经济学家对JOLTS数据的准确性提出质疑，原因包括调查回复率偏低以及数据频繁修 正。事实上，招聘网站Indeed提供的另一项类似指数(该数据为每日更新)显示，4月份的职位空缺数量实 际上是下降的。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管经济不确定性加剧，美国就业市场在4月份表现出意外的韧性。根据美国劳工 统计局周二公布的JOLTS数据，4月份的职位空缺从经修正后的720万个升至739 ...

美国4月职位空缺意外增长 招聘活动出现加快 智通财经6月3日电，美国4月职位空缺数量意外大幅增加，招聘活动也出现加快，表明尽管经济不确定 性加剧，但用工需求依然稳健。根据劳工统计局周二发布的数据，4月份职位空缺从3月份修正后的720 万增至739万，高于710万的预期中值。职位空缺的增长主要来自私营部门，如专业与商业服务，以及医 疗和社会援助行业。尽管州和地方教育部门职位减少，联邦政府职位空缺有所增加。职位空缺增加、招 聘稳定和失业率处于低位支撑了美联储关于就业状况良好的观点。然而，失业者找到工作的时间变长， 经济学家预计在特朗普关税政策的影响下，未来几个月劳动力市场将出现更明显疲软。 ...

金十数据6月3日讯，美国4月份职位空缺意外增加，增幅相当大，招聘人数也有所增加，表明尽管经济 不确定性加剧，但对工人的需求仍然健康。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业空缺从3月份修 正后的720万个增加到739万个，高于710万个的预期。职位空缺的增加是由专业和商业服务、医疗保健 和社会救助等私营行业推动的。虽然州和地方教育导致政府总职位空缺减少，但联邦政府职位空缺增 加。职位空缺的增加，加上稳定的招聘和低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场状况良好的说法。然 而，失业人员预计需要更长的时间才能找到工作，经济学家预计，在特朗普总统征收关税的重压下，未 来几个月劳动力市场将更加明显地疲软。 美国4月空缺职位意外大增 支持美联储就业市场状况良好的说法 ...

英国央行副行长布里登：剩余产能正在释放，劳动力市场正趋于宽松。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：劳动力市场有所放松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicates that the labor market in Japan remains tight, leading companies to continue maintaining a positive wage-setting behavior [1] Group 1 - The tight labor market in Japan suggests that companies are likely to increase wages to attract and retain talent [1] - Positive wage-setting behavior is expected to persist among businesses due to ongoing labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]