Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dampened expectations for a holiday rate cut, indicating that a December reduction is uncertain due to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% as of October 29, but Powell emphasized that certainty regarding future cuts is lacking [2][5]. - Powell highlighted the ongoing government shutdown as a factor that hampers the Fed's access to crucial economic data, contributing to uncertainty in policy decisions [2][3]. Labor Market and Inflation - Powell noted signs of a cooling labor market and persistent inflation, which currently stands at 3%, above the Fed's target of 2% [6]. - He described the current situation as a "risk management" scenario, where both inflation and labor market conditions present challenges [6]. Committee Dynamics - There are strong disagreements among Federal Reserve voting members regarding the path forward, with some advocating for a cautious approach to assess potential risks to the labor market [4]. - Powell stated that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed, reflecting the divided views within the committee [4]. Market Reactions - Futures markets, which previously anticipated a rate cut, shifted their expectations following Powell's comments, now predicting that the Fed will maintain current rates [7]. - Some economists have adjusted their expectations for a rate cut at the end of the year, citing a less threatening inflation outlook due to various mitigating factors [8]. Future Projections - Despite a tempered outlook, some economists still expect a December rate cut, with a belief that additional cuts may be necessary next year to support growth [9].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October and plans to end balance sheet reduction in December[1] - The December rate cut is not guaranteed, with the Fed emphasizing the need to monitor upcoming data post-government shutdown[2] Economic Indicators - Core inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the 2% target, with the core PCE expected to be in the range of 2.3%-2.4%[3] - Recent employment data indicates a cooling labor market, but the trend of weakness has not intensified[3] Internal Disagreements - There remains internal dissent within the Fed, with two members voting against the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction instead[2] - The division among Fed members adds uncertainty to the December rate decision[2] Data Dependency - The upcoming release of economic data following the government shutdown will be crucial for the December monetary policy meeting[3] - The lack of government data during the shutdown has created a vacuum that private sector data cannot fill[3] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential inflation from rapid rate cuts or renewed tariffs, and slower cuts could lead to economic recession[3]

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 一图速览>> ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : | | Jan | Feb | 削一 Mar | Apr | May | -轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | (50) | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 | | 25 | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | 50 | | 25 | 25 | | 0000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 鲍威尔打压市场对于 12 月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT ...

Core Points - The committee has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 2.75% to 4% [1] - Labor market conditions are gradually cooling, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact economic activity, but these effects are anticipated to reverse once the shutdown concludes [1] Economic Indicators - Data indicating a strengthening or stabilization of the labor market will influence future decisions regarding the federal funds rate [2] - There are differing opinions within the committee about the approach to take in December, indicating uncertainty about further rate reductions [2] - A reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed [2]

尽管通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但美联储仍宣布第二次降息。 尽管通胀率仍高于央行目标，但美联储周三宣布今年第二次降息，以支持劳动力市场。 美联储决策者投票决定将基准联邦基金利率下调25个基点，至3.75%至4%的新区间。此举是继9月份同等幅度的降息之后进行的，也 是今年以来的首次降息。 政策制定者一直在密切关注经济数据， 数据显示，近几个月来，由于企业努力应对贸易和移民政策的变化，劳动力市场增速放缓。 与此同时，随着关税相关价格上涨反映在政府数据中，通胀趋势持续走高。 这些趋势让美联储陷入两难境地，因为它既要实现稳定物价以达到 2% 的长期通胀目标，又要促进充分就业。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续密切关注就业和通胀风险。 主席表示，9 月份消费者价格指数显示，商品价格上涨是由于关税相关的价格上涨所致，而住房服务价格上涨趋势呈下降趋势，非 住房服务价格近几个月来一直保持平稳。 他解释说："如果把所有这些因素加起来，剔除关税后的通胀率实际上与我们2%的目标相差不大。我们估计——当然，人们对这个 数字的估计各不相同——它可能在0.5到0.6个百分点之间，所以如果通胀率为2.8%，那么剔除关税后的核心 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently facing challenges in obtaining formal labor market data, which is crucial for making informed decisions as they approach a neutral interest rate [1][2][3] - There is a noticeable slowdown in payroll growth without a corresponding increase in unemployment, indicating potential slack in the labor market [3][4] - A mismatch in job openings and available labor is evident, particularly affecting college graduates, suggesting that the labor market may be experiencing both cyclical slowing and structural issues [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a flat or declining supply of labor, rather than significant layoffs [2][4] - Businesses report unfilled positions in sectors like construction, highlighting a mismatch between job availability and candidate qualifications [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates is influenced by the need to balance labor market conditions with inflation targets [6][7] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Current inflation rates are above the long-term target of 2%, complicating the Fed's strategy as they consider moving towards a neutral rate [6][9] - The impact of tariffs on growth is mixed; while they may slow growth in the short term, they could lead to increased investment in the long run [11][12] - Global economic conditions are influenced by factors such as aging populations and over-leverage, but there are also positive indicators like potential productivity growth from data center investments [15][16]

Group 1 - ADP has announced the launch of a weekly preliminary estimate of the National Employment Report to track U.S. labor market dynamics more frequently, starting this week [1] - The first report indicates an average increase of 14,250 private sector jobs over the four weeks ending October 11, 2025 [1] - The new weekly report will be released every Tuesday at 8:15 AM ET, providing a four-week moving average of private sector employment changes [1] Group 2 - The existing monthly National Employment Report will continue to be published on the first Wednesday of each month, providing detailed data across various dimensions [2] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, have indicated that the U.S. labor market is steadily losing growth momentum, supported by ADP's data [2] - The accelerated selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump may allow the White House to influence monetary policy ahead of schedule [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting, with market attention on Chairman Powell's signals for future easing amid political pressure and internal disagreements within the Fed [1][5]. Economic Data and Market Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Fed's policy decisions. There are conflicting signals in the macroeconomic landscape, including inflation above the 2% target, weak hiring, and rising corporate investment expectations [2][3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure for the Fed, has risen from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, indicating potential inflation risks [2]. Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Barr predicts core inflation will exceed 3% by year-end, with a return to the 2% target not expected until 2027, raising concerns about the adequacy of current monetary policy [3]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expresses hesitance towards further rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the absence of non-farm payroll reports complicates labor market assessments [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the importance of monitoring the labor market, suggesting that without risk management measures, labor market weaknesses could worsen [4]. - Despite a slowdown in hiring, there are no widespread layoffs reported, and consumer spending remains resilient, although the government shutdown poses additional uncertainties [4]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - While a rate cut is anticipated, internal divisions within the Fed may create uncertainty regarding future policy directions [5]. - Market expectations indicate a 90% probability of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with potential for 2-3 additional cuts next year [6]. Quantitative Tightening and Asset Purchases - The Fed may signal an end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with discussions around halting the reduction of its balance sheet, which has decreased from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed could fully stop QT in the upcoming meeting, although the pace of reducing mortgage-backed securities may remain slow due to complex market conditions [10].