基本面： 周四（12月18日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续震荡于本周区间内未能突破并进一步收窄，目前暂交投于4332美元附近。受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预 期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）现货黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报每盎司4338 美元附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同时，白银价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。 尽管美元周三上涨，但今年迄今已下跌约9.5%，创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅。这一弱势为黄金提供了支撑，因为黄金以美元计价，美元贬值往往推高金 价。美国债市收益率持稳也反映了市场的观望情绪。两年期国债收益率上涨0.8个基点至3.487%，10年期国债收益率基本不变于4.149%。由于联邦政府停摆 43天导致数据延迟，经济指标的可信度降低，美联储不太可能很快降息，联邦基金利率期货显示1月降息概率仅为24%。但整体而言，美联储的鸽派倾向仍 为主导。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小实体收盘表现胶着，盘中曾尝试下探4300关口获得支撑并维持短期高位区域报收，暗示市场短期仍有望挑战新高， ...

Market Analysis - Gold prices surged significantly on December 18, 2025, driven by weak U.S. employment data, renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Spot gold prices reached a high of $4,348.70 per ounce and closed around $4,338 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 1% [1][4] - Silver prices also broke the $66 mark, hitting a historical high of $66.88 per ounce, while platinum reached its highest level in over 17 years. The market is closely watching President Trump's national address and the delayed release of the U.S. November CPI data [1][4] - The future trajectory of the gold market is influenced by multiple evolving factors, reflecting not only short-term reactions to economic data and geopolitical events but also the increasing global uncertainty. Silver's strength may indicate further rotational trends, while gold remains a core safe-haven asset [1][4] Gold Technical Analysis - On Wednesday, gold traded between a high of $4,348 and a low of $4,315, with a prevailing bullish trend. However, it is noted that the current movement is a choppy upward trend, and caution is advised regarding potential market changes that could lead to deeper corrections. The recommendation is to maintain a bullish stance while also considering short positions at high levels [2][6] - The technical outlook suggests that gold is facing resistance at $4,350, and if it breaks above $4,355, it could target $4,385. Conversely, if it breaks below key support levels, it may revisit last week's low of $4,250. Key levels to watch include $4,355 resistance and $4,300, $4,280, and $4,250 support levels [2][6] Silver Technical Analysis - Silver opened with a slight decline before a strong rally, reaching a high of $66.88 and closing at approximately $66.22, forming a long upper shadow on a bullish candlestick. The trading strategy suggests buying on a pullback to $65 with a stop loss at $64.5, targeting $66.9, $67.5, and a range of $68 to $68.3 [3][7]

12月18日：上交易日周三（12月17日）：国际黄金反弹持稳收阳，受益于疲软的美国就业数据引发美联 储降息预期以及美委紧张局势升级的推动；未继续收取震荡见顶形态，这增强了短期的看涨预期，也使 得后市有再度刷新新高的前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4303.05美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4301.49美元，之后白盘时段明显过 山车，但到美盘时段，多头再度回升走强，持稳盘整偏强，录得日内高点4348.60美元，最终收于 4338.16美元，日振幅47.11美元，收涨35.11美元，涨幅0.82%。 黄金：下方关注4320美元或4300美元附近支撑；上方关注4360美元或4390美元附近阻力； 白银：下方关注65.40美元或64.40美元支撑；上方关注67.70美元或68.45美元阻力； 展望今日周四（12月18日）：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅偏强运行，受到昨日买盘推动，以及早盘美元指数 的偏弱运行，但走势仍临近趋势线压力附近，美元指数短期走势偏筑底或回升，将会限制金价反弹，使 得走势也有再度遇阻回撤的风险，多头需突破此压力才能进一步打开上行空间。 日内将可关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI数据以及美国 ...

今日周四，黄金开盘先行窄幅偏强运行，受到昨日买盘推动，以及早盘美元指数的偏弱运行，但走势仍 临近趋势线压力附近，美元指数短期走势偏筑底或回升，将会限制金价反弹，使得走势也有再度遇阻回 撤的风险，多头需突破此压力才能进一步打开上行空间。 日图；金价昨日反弹持稳所以，打消了之前连续收取的见顶形态，使得多头动力转强，再加上走势整体 处于短期均线上方，多头仍占据优势，将继续依托5-10日均线支撑进行看涨为主。 周线级别，金价目前反弹受到之前历史高点触及的趋势线压力附近，动力有所减弱，附图指标信号也有 所偏弱，面临回撤调整风险，但好在仍运行在5-10周均线上方，趋势仍保持上行，因而，如有回撤，下 方各均线支撑，也是先行看涨入场的选择。 日内将可关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI数据以及美国至12月13日当周初请失业金人 数(万人)等数据，市场整体预期好坏参半，但顶多只是让金价震荡表现，方向上，目前依然看涨，基本 面上，就业市场表明美联储应继续降息。美联储理事沃勒也表示货币政策仍处于限制性区间，仍有降息 空间。再加上地缘政治紧张局势升级等多重因素的合力推动，所以，操作上，还是以低多看涨为主。 技术上，月线级 ...

4小时图和小时图暂时陷入4353-4270区间的拉锯震荡，考虑到构造右侧高点当中，同时也是反复逼近左 侧高点，波段性高空维持思路不变，今日依旧在4340处择机空，上去每10~15美元补个仓。整体仓位控 制在10%左右，即使假性突破4380也留有补仓的空间。留意突破后的转换回落，只要不是持续稳涨，上 涨快下跌也快。波段高空思路保持不变。日内短线则是以区间高空超短线应对。空间相对看小一点，灵 活一点应对。1小时还是在大区间震荡，不过黄金整体现在还是在高位，如果做多仍然需要等待回落机 会，下方关注4270区域的支撑在逢低继续多，上方如果不能有效突破4350，那么随时可能还是会承压回 落，黄金已经三次冲个承压4350一线压制难以突破，没有突破之前，还是在大区间震荡，如果黄金要爆 发新一轮的行情，那么突破站稳4350之后才能打开新的上涨空间，再顺势跟进。操作来说亚盘4340- 4342短空，防守4355 ，目标看4315-4310减个仓再下移保本损看进一步的空间。来回震荡行情，短线有 个20美元的空间及时减仓锁定利润，以免反复洗盘，下跌不出反弹补空即可。综合来看，金晟富黄金短 线操作思路上金晟富建议反弹做空为主，回调做 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 17, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF rose 1.86%, IH rose 1.43%, IC rose 2.02%, and IM rose 1.54%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. However, the total open interest of IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. Trump's order to block sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela led to a significant rise in US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals [6]. - The merger plan of CICC, Dongxing, and Cinda was finalized, with the exchange price set at 36.91 yuan per share. After the merger, CICC's operating income is estimated to be about 27.4 billion yuan, and it will become the fourth brokerage with total assets exceeding one trillion yuan. A - share and Hong Kong - stock markets showed an upward trend, while US stock markets closed down [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of major stock indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.95%. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 2.47% for IC2606 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 39,510, 4,636, 21,520, and 35,895 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF decreased by 628 lots, IH decreased by 1,896 lots, IC increased by 2,748 lots, and IM decreased by 9,704 lots [2]. - **Basis**: Different index futures contracts have different basis values, such as IF2512 with a basis of - 1.68, IH2512 with a basis of - 4.48, IC2512 with a basis of 8.97, and IM2512 with a basis of 6.26 [1]. 3.2 Index Futures Top 20 Member Position Changes - For different index futures contracts, the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members vary. For example, for IF2512, the long - position decreased by 22,412 lots, and the short - position decreased by 22,426 lots [5]. 3.3 Market - Driving Factors - **Geopolitical Factors**: Trump's order to block oil tankers in and out of Venezuela led to a significant rise in oil prices and increased market concerns about supply tightening. Geopolitical tensions also increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals [6]. - **Corporate Merger**: The merger plan of CICC, Dongxing, and Cinda was finalized, which is a major merger in the brokerage sector. After the merger, CICC's scale and competitiveness will be significantly enhanced [7]. - **Macroeconomic and Policy Factors**: Fed Governor Waller said that the employment market is weak, and the Fed's interest - rate cuts have helped the employment market. The A - share market rose, and the US stock market closed down due to investors' assessment of the US economic report [7].

另据央视新闻报道，当地时间12月17日，俄罗斯总统普京在俄国防部扩大会议上表示， 俄军目前在 整个俄乌冲突前线掌握主动权， 俄军正在击溃乌军，包括在西方接受训练的乌克兰精锐部队。 2025.12. 17 本文字数：768，阅读时长大约2分钟 据环球网综合外媒报道， 俄罗斯总统普京在俄国防部一场会议上宣布一则"重要消息"称，"榛树"弹 道导弹系统将于今年年底前进入战斗值班状态， 有关准备工作正按计划进行。 普京表示，2025年是俄罗斯完成特别军事行动任务进程中的重要一年。俄方有能力在特别军事行动 区域加快进攻步伐，俄方扩大安全缓冲区的任务将会完成，特别军事行动目标将会实现。 普京强调，2025年，俄军在特别军事行动区域内已控制超过300个居民点。俄军正在成功击溃乌克 兰武装部队的精锐部队，其中包括一些在西方接受过训练的部队。普京还表示，俄罗斯更倾向于通过 外交途径达成目标，但也做好了通过军事手段控制其历史领土的准备。 普京指出，俄军在面对北约对乌克兰支持的复杂条件下，展现了高度的作战能力和训练水平。他 称，"海燕"核动力巡航导弹和 "波塞冬"核动力无人潜航器将确保俄罗斯未来数十年的战略平衡与安 全，并在长期内保 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets generally declined, and US stock futures fell slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with silver hitting a new high and gold approaching its historical peak from October [1][3] - International oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI and Brent crude oil both rising over 1%, driven by Trump's order to impose a comprehensive blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, raising concerns about tighter supply [1][9] - The US dollar index continued its upward trend, increasing by over 0.2% during the day, while US Treasury yields rose slightly, indicating a shift in market focus towards upcoming inflation data for clearer policy direction [1][11] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a notable surge, with gold prices rising to over $4,330 per ounce, just shy of the October record high of $4,381, and silver surpassing $66 per ounce, marking a historical peak [3][6] - Platinum also saw its fifth consecutive day of gains, reaching its highest level since 2011, reflecting a broader trend of capital flowing into hard assets amid rising geopolitical risks [1][6] Group 3: Employment Data Impact - The latest US employment data showed a modest increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, but the data was not seen as severe enough to trigger immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11] - Market expectations for a rate cut in January are currently around 20%, as the Federal Reserve may view the employment report with a balanced perspective rather than a negative one [10][11]

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to rise, with platinum futures increasing by 6.00% to 522.70 CNY/kg and spot platinum up over 3% to 1909.15 USD/oz [1] - Silver futures in Shanghai rose over 5.00% to 15512 CNY/kg, while gold futures increased by 0.56% to 981.12 CNY/kg [1] - Spot gold reached 4340 USD/oz, up 0.88%, and silver prices surged to 66.27 USD/oz, marking a 4.00% increase [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index fell to a two-month low, and the 10-year Treasury yield also declined, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US sanctions on Venezuela and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing support for gold prices [2] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US inflation data, including the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for insights into future monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold and silver prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. non-farm employment data, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][7]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm employment data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of around 50,000, indicating a potential short-term recovery in the job market [2][8]. - In contrast, the October non-farm employment data was significantly revised downwards from an initial increase to a decrease of 105,000 jobs, reflecting pressures on the job market due to government shutdowns and economic fluctuations [2][8]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021, suggesting a deepening of labor market slack despite the job growth [2][8]. - Retail sales data exhibited a mixed pattern, with overall sales being flat while core sales showed strength, highlighting structural characteristics of U.S. consumer spending [2][8]. Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent economic data has not provided a clear signal regarding the U.S. economy or Federal Reserve policy, leading to increased market expectation divergence [3][9]. - The strong non-farm job growth and robust core retail sales suggest some resilience in the U.S. economy, potentially limiting aggressive easing measures by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. - Conversely, the downward revision of October's non-farm data, the rising unemployment rate, and underwhelming overall retail sales indicate ongoing short-term economic pressures, leaving room for future policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. Geopolitical Developments - President Trump is reportedly interviewing another candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position, Christopher Waller, who has been a proponent of interest rate cuts [3][9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the Netherlands and announced that a Ukrainian negotiation team would visit the U.S. to discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][9]. Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market has shown signs of correction after two days of high volatility, with a high position candlestick pattern indicating some caution among bulls [4][10]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at approximately $4,355, while support is noted around the $4,300 level [4][10]. - The hourly chart indicates potential consolidation within a high triangle range, with critical levels to watch being around $4,330 for resistance and $4,285-$4,280 for support [4][10]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests focusing on a short-term range between $4,330 and $4,280, with a broader range extending to $4,350-$4,250 [5][11]. - Market participants are advised to monitor how the market reacts to the conflicting economic data to determine future trading directions [5][11].