美元兑日元日内上涨1%至145.10。 ...

美元兑日元USD/JPY日内涨超1%，至145.18。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

智通财经7月3日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1611，较上一交易日上涨59点。 ...

Group 1 - The euro to Japanese yen exchange rate is rising, nearing a one-year high, driven by the continued weakness of the yen [1] - The US dollar index has significantly declined, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973, with non-US currencies strengthening, particularly the euro, which has seen a cumulative increase of 13.86% against the dollar in the first half of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy with a benchmark interest rate between 0 and 0.1%, indicating that the current financial environment will continue unless there is a significant price trend change [1] Group 2 - The Japanese authorities' intervention expectations regarding exchange rate fluctuations add uncertainty to the market, with the Bank of Japan conducting checks on the euro to yen exchange rate [2] - The euro to yen exchange rate reached 175.43, a new high since the euro's introduction in 1999, and if it approaches 180, intervention by Japanese authorities is likely [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's policy meetings for potential changes in bond purchase scales and interest rate decisions, which could impact the currency market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound continues its upward trend against the US dollar, increasing by 0.3% to 1.3672 [1] Group 1 - The British pound has shown resilience in the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound against the US dollar continues its upward trend, currently rising by 0.3% to 1.3672 [1] Group 1 - The British pound has shown a consistent increase in value against the US dollar [1] - The current exchange rate stands at 1.3672, indicating a positive movement in the currency market [1]

新台币兑美元上涨0.7%至28.814。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market atmosphere created by the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, leading to a collective rise in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) experienced a slight decline of 0.56% as of 10:35 AM, despite having gained over 4% last week and nearly 30% year-to-date [1] - Notable stock performances include a rise of over 7% for companies like Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, while companies such as Kelun-Biotech and Zai Lab saw increases of over 6% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by selling US dollars and buying Hong Kong dollars, involving an amount of HKD 20.018 billion to stabilize the currency [1] - The total bank system surplus has decreased to HKD 144.1 billion, following a cumulative purchase of approximately HKD 30 billion by the HKMA from June 26 to July 2 [1] - The Hibor rate has dropped from 4.5% to 0.4%, indicating a significant change in the liquidity environment [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs indicated a strong interest from investors in the Hong Kong market and Hong Kong dollar assets, with a relatively abundant liquidity environment [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active without causing liquidity issues, and there is an increasing demand for the Hong Kong dollar from overseas investors [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) account for 69.41% of the index, including major companies like Xiaomi, Tencent, and BYD [1]