Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - The total supply of stablecoins has reached a historic high of $305.2 billion, indicating sustained demand in the market [1] - Tether and Circle have collectively issued over $11.75 billion in USDT and USDC in the past month, with an additional $1 billion in USDT added this week [1] - The fluctuations in USD coin funding rates reflect significant changes in market liquidity dynamics [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, which has not been seen during Powell's tenure [2] - Despite a 69.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut according to market expectations, the divergence among officials complicates the previously feasible rate cut plan [2] - This policy uncertainty has led to increased volatility in USD coin funding rates as investors adjust their positions [2] Group 3: Liquidity Pressures and Market Reactions - The U.S. Treasury's account balance has reached $900 billion, indicating significant capital withdrawal from the market [3] - Daily repurchase activity exceeds $3 trillion, suggesting ongoing liquidity pressures that may prompt the Federal Reserve to inject more liquidity [3] - Following the easing of the government shutdown crisis, USD coin funding rates have slightly decreased but remain elevated, reflecting cautious market sentiment [3] Group 4: Circle's Operations and Market Demand - Circle has been actively minting and burning USDC, with operations on November 12 involving the minting of 52 million and 89 million USDC, followed by corresponding burns [4] - These frequent minting and burning activities indicate rapid changes in market demand, impacting USD coin funding rates [4] - A significant transfer of 856.89 million USDC on November 12 highlights the active nature of the stablecoin market [4] Group 5: Growth of PYUSD and Market Dynamics - PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD has surpassed a market cap of $3 billion, accounting for 1% of the stablecoin market [5] - The rapid growth of PYUSD from $1 billion to $3 billion within approximately 14 weeks introduces new variables into the pricing mechanisms of USD coin funding rates [5] Group 6: Future Outlook for Stablecoin Market - The stablecoin market is at a critical juncture of expansion and structural adjustment, with the total supply reaching a historic high [7] - Factors such as Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, liquidity tightening, and new competitors are expected to influence USD coin funding rates [7] - Real-time data from decentralized trading platforms like XBIT will be crucial for investors to navigate market fluctuations [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decrease in the U.S. private sector employment, with a reduction of 45,000 jobs in October [4] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2, which is below expectations, indicating a decline in small business confidence [4] - The report notes that in October, sales of new energy vehicles in China surpassed 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time [4] - The third quarter saw a 17.8% year-on-year increase in shipments of foldable smartphones in China [4] - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising total exceeded HKD 240 billion this year, making it the leading global exchange for IPOs [4] - Tether, a major stablecoin issuer, is accelerating its entry into the physical gold market [4] - SoftBank has liquidated its holdings in Nvidia to increase investments in OpenAI [4] - Tesla is preparing to expand its Texas Gigafactory with plans to produce 10 million units of the Optimus humanoid robot annually [4] - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, JD.com achieved record sales, while Xiaomi's sales exceeded CNY 29 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2084.00, down 0.95% [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23468.30, down 0.25% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47927.96, up 1.18% [5] - The ICE Brent Crude Oil price was at 65.09, up 1.61% [5] - The London Gold Spot price was at 4125.48, up 0.24% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate (CFETS) was 7.12, up 0.04% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26696.41, up 0.18% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39% [5]

Core Insights - Tether is hiring two top global precious metals traders from HSBC to build a significant gold reserve and challenge existing market leaders [1] - Tether has accumulated one of the largest gold reserves globally, which is part of its over $180 billion in reserve assets [1][2] - The company has become one of the largest buyers of gold in the market, with its latest report indicating over $12 billion in gold holdings as of September [2] Group 1 - Tether's flagship stablecoin, USDT, is backed by various reserve assets, including gold and U.S. Treasury securities, with a 1:1 exchange rate to the dollar [2] - The company reported a profit of $13 billion from its reserve assets last year and expects to earn around $15 billion this year [2] - Tether's growth is attributed to the rising gold prices driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt and currency devaluation [3] Group 2 - The departure of the two traders from HSBC is a setback for the bank's precious metals business amid increasing competition for talent in the sector [2] - Tether's gold reserve growth has been significant, averaging over 1 ton of gold added weekly over the past year [2] - Tether has also invested in other segments of the gold supply chain, including royalty companies [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report discusses the risks, challenges, and policy recommendations regarding stablecoins, emphasizing their role as a bridge between traditional and crypto finance [1][2][3] - Stablecoins have seen rapid growth, with their market capitalization exceeding $290 billion as of late August 2023, primarily driven by USDT and USDC, which together account for over 80% of the market [2][3] - The introduction of the US "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring full reserve backing or short-term US Treasury holdings, which could significantly impact the global stablecoin landscape [9][10][11] Group 2: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins maintain a 1:1 exchange ratio with fiat currencies, primarily the US dollar, but their stability is relative and can fluctuate under certain conditions [2][3] - They operate on public blockchains, allowing for decentralized transactions without intermediaries, which poses new challenges to traditional financial regulatory frameworks [3][4] - The issuance process involves large institutions applying for stablecoin issuance, with a significant portion of the funds being invested in low-risk, highly liquid assets like US Treasury bills [4] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins face risks related to illegal activities and regulatory evasion, as their cross-border usage can undermine national monetary sovereignty [6][7] - Financial stability risks arise from the potential for stablecoin issuers to invest in high-risk assets, leading to significant volatility and potential failures, as seen in past incidents like the collapse of algorithmic stablecoins [7][8] - The decentralized nature of stablecoins complicates cross-border regulatory coordination, with varying regulatory approaches across countries leading to potential regulatory arbitrage [8] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The "GENIUS Act" mandates transparency and compliance for stablecoin issuers, including anti-money laundering measures and annual audits, addressing long-standing concerns about the lack of oversight in the stablecoin market [10][11] - The act positions stablecoin issuers as the primary responsible parties for compliance, enhancing the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins and potentially reshaping global standards [11][12] - The anticipated growth of stablecoins could lead to increased demand for US Treasury securities, potentially reversing recent declines in demand for US debt instruments [12][14] Group 5: Geopolitical Implications - The competition between the US and China in the international financial arena has implications for the future of stablecoins, with the US's regulatory framework potentially solidifying the dollar's dominance [14][15] - The rise of stablecoins could marginalize weaker fiat currencies, impacting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan and presenting both challenges and opportunities for China's financial strategy [15][18] - Stablecoins may challenge China's financial security by facilitating cross-border transactions that bypass traditional currency controls, raising concerns about capital flight and monetary sovereignty [18][19]

在上个月刚经历过美元稳定币脱锚，多个加密货币被集体抛售的动荡后，近期，币圈再陷新一轮动荡。 一方面，又一稳定币脱锚，跌破1美元。另一方面，比特币在10月录得多年来首个10月下跌后，近几个 月交易日又跌破10万美元大关。 稳定币脱锚、比特币大跌共振 上周，由Stable Labs发行的合成稳定币USDX严重偏离其1美元挂钩，一度暴跌至0.113美元。这引发了 一系列连锁反应，多个借贷平台紧急清算，借款利率一度飙升至惊人的800%。市场对相关去中心化金 融（DeFi）协议产生连锁反应的担忧加剧。 公开资料显示，USDX的发行方Stable Labs自称为"符合欧盟MiCA法规的稳定币和代币化资产发行商"。 该公司曾在2024年宣布，以2.75亿美元的估值完成了4500万美元的融资。但在USDX严重脱锚后，Stable Labs至今未作出任何公开回应，越发加剧了市场不确定性。 不过，多个主流DeFi协议已迅速采取行动。借贷协议Lista DAO与币安支持的去中心化交易所 PancakeSwap相继发布声明，表示正在密切监控局势。其中，Lista DAO已发起紧急治理投票，寻求强制 清算相关资产的授权。Lista D ...

#Crypto #2025大概率明年的主要收入就不是 DeFi / 套利了。作为 2025 回顾篇，聊聊最近一些事件：1. 杂种稳定币。在 1011 的时候就风险提示过了：https://t.co/NdAR42kjM2长期关注的朋友应该有印象，我接过所有的脱锚-回锚的币的针。但杂种稳定币，只能是作为 Curator 不让人亏钱，自己不亏钱，没办法盈利。因为无法积累杂种稳定币的债务，脱锚的时候也不可能抄底。而对手方（项目方）上可以坏账，下可以折价回收。完完全全无敌作弊码，敢玩就是死。这种杂种稳定币，我的重点监控对象还有 2 家。希望未来几年他们越做越大，大到让我可以借坏账筹码，暴雷的时候捡点钱。不用问是谁，没发生的事情说了是 fud，发生了招竞争对手。大部分 DeFi 人心里有数自己准备。2. Ethena 代表 DeFi 的终结。我的文章和推文聊过 Ethena 很多很多次，它是这两年轮牛市的唯一核心。从 Ethena 这个项目上赚千万人民币的人很多很多很多，业务模式稳固、利润和容量巨大、生命周期长的矿，从我了解 DeFi 以来独此一家。然后 Ethena S4 的空投，已经实质性违约了。我觉得比 S3 好， ...

Core Insights - The synthetic stablecoin USDX issued by Stable Labs has experienced a significant de-pegging from its $1 value, raising concerns about potential cascading effects on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols [1][3] - Major DeFi protocols, including Lista DAO and PancakeSwap, have initiated emergency measures to monitor the situation and mitigate risks associated with the USDX crisis [1][3] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the de-pegging of USDX, Lista DAO launched an emergency governance vote (LIP 022) to authorize forced liquidation of assets linked to MEV Capital and Re7 Labs [3][4] - Lista DAO executed a flash loan to recover over 2.9 million USD1 tokens, aiming to contain the crisis before it escalated further [1][3] - PancakeSwap has alerted users to monitor their positions in affected liquidity pools, indicating the widespread impact of the USDX situation [5][6] Group 2: Underlying Issues - Speculation regarding the cause of USDX's de-pegging includes a potential link to a $128 million theft from Balancer, which may have forced Stable Labs to liquidate its Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions [7][8] - Concerns have been raised about the management of USDX, with questions about the lack of active portfolio management and the apparent failure of major borrowers to repay loans [7][8] Group 3: Company Background - Stable Labs, the issuer of USDX, claims to comply with EU MiCA regulations and has a notable investment background, having raised $45 million at a $275 million valuation [8] - Despite its significant backing from well-known investors, Stable Labs has remained silent regarding the USDX crisis, contributing to market uncertainty [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a cumulative decline this week, marking the worst week since early April, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, the Dow down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [4][3] - Technology stocks dragged down the Nasdaq, with the index of the seven major U.S. tech companies falling by 0.56%, and Tesla dropping 3.71% [4][5] Gold Market - Gold prices fluctuated significantly this week, with the price rebounding to $4000 per ounce on November 7, despite a cumulative decline of 0.06% for the week [10][8] Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 39th day, with negotiations between Democrats and Republicans stalled, leading to a significant impact on the economy and public services [12][11] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, and $14 billion if it lasts eight weeks [13] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Debate - Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut in December have intensified, with a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.5% chance of maintaining current rates [18][17] - Fed officials express differing views on the necessity and extent of potential rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach [17][14]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Specific Federal Employee Appropriations Act (S.3012) with a vote of 53 to 43, leading to continued furloughs for federal employees as bipartisan disagreements persist over government shutdown issues [1] - The U.S. Transportation Secretary warned that flight reductions could reach 15% to 20% if the situation worsens [5] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report highlighted political uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and artificial intelligence (AI) as major stability concerns, with respondents worried about a reversal of AI optimism potentially impacting risk assets and labor markets [6] - The widespread use of stablecoins may lower neutral interest rates and increase the risk of hitting the zero lower bound, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates and raise the value of the dollar [7][8] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.16%, the Nasdaq down 0.21%, and the S&P 500 up 0.13%; major tech stocks experienced divergence, with Intel rising over 2% while Google and Tesla fell over 2% and 3%, respectively [9] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped approximately 1%, with Xpeng Motors falling over 6% [10] - Cryptocurrency performance was strong, with Bitcoin surpassing $103,000 and $104,000, gaining 1.67% and 2.70% respectively, while Ethereum rose above $3,400 with a daily increase of 2.59% [11][12][13] - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,020 per ounce, and New York futures surpassed $4,030 per ounce, with daily gains of 1.12% and 0.98% respectively [14][15] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Tesla's shareholder vote revealed that an alternative compensation plan for Elon Musk received 1.94 billion votes in favor, while Musk's original compensation plan garnered approximately 1.89 billion votes; a proposal for the board to authorize investment in xAI received 473.1 million abstentions [16][17] - OpenAI requested the U.S. to expand the tax credit scope of the Chips and Science Act to include data centers, while Samsung is in talks with Barclays to launch a credit card in the U.S. [18][19] Group 4: Domestic News - China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier was officially commissioned, with President Xi Jinping attending the flag-raising ceremony and inspecting the ship [26] - In the first ten months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 3.6%, indicating sustained resilience in foreign trade [27] Group 5: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures fell by 2% to 1,252.50 yuan per ton [28] - Five New Tunnel Equipment stated in an investor relations event that its products have been applied in small quantities for hydropower projects downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, positioning the hydropower market as a key growth area [29]

Core Viewpoint - The growth of stablecoins may significantly lower the "neutral interest rate" in the future, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates should be adjusted downward to avoid contractionary pressures on the economy [1] Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The expansion of stablecoins is expected to increase the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, applying downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - If the neutral interest rate declines, the policy interest rate should also decrease to maintain economic health; refusal to lower rates would be considered a tightening action by the central bank [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has called for multiple 50 basis point rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to what he considers a "neutral" level [1] - Factors such as immigration policy adjustments and changes in tariff policies are contributing to the decline in the neutral interest rate, while the current policy rate is "far above neutral levels," imposing significant restrictions on the economy [1] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulations - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to sovereign currencies (usually the US dollar) and are designed to maintain stable value [1] - Recent US legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in cash and cash equivalents (including US Treasury securities) at a 1:1 ratio, indicating that as stablecoin issuance grows, demand for US Treasuries will also increase [1]