Economic Overview - Shenzhen's economy shows overall stability and progress, with industrial production steadily increasing. The industrial added value for the first eight months grew by 4.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first seven months. In August alone, the industrial added value increased by 7.0%, up by 2.0 percentage points from July [1] Industrial Performance - In the first eight months, the mining sector's added value remained flat, while manufacturing grew by 4.6% and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.8%. Notably, general equipment manufacturing surged by 16.9%, and instrument manufacturing rose by 8.3% [1] High-tech Products - High-tech product output in Shenzhen continued to grow rapidly, with civilian drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment seeing production increases of 58.0%, 36.9%, and 34.6%, respectively [1] Service Sector - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises in Shenzhen grew by 7.8% in the first seven months, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services (10.6% growth), leasing and business services (8.2% growth), and transportation, warehousing, and postal services (7.0% growth) [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 15.7% in the first eight months, with real estate development investment down by 21.6%. However, infrastructure investment grew by 5.7%, and industrial technology transformation investment surged by 48.6%. The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a 50.7% increase in investment [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Shenzhen accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in August, up by 1.1 percentage points from July. The total retail sales for the first eight months reached 672.34 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [2] E-commerce Growth - Online retail continued to grow, with retail sales through the internet increasing by 18.5% for large-scale enterprises [2] Trade Performance - Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 29,625.75 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Exports decreased by 4.6% to 17,959.52 billion yuan, while imports grew by 9.0% to 11,666.23 billion yuan [3] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen experienced stable growth in deposits and loans, with total deposits reaching 147,053.20 billion yuan, up by 9.3%, and loans totaling 98,685.06 billion yuan, increasing by 4.4% [3] Consumer Price Index - The consumer price index in Shenzhen saw a mild increase of 0.1% in the first eight months, with food and beverage prices rising by 0.4% and clothing prices by 1.2%. However, housing prices decreased by 0.1% [3]

#报告 高盛有关美国政府关门停摆事件的问答：可能性较大，或直接拖累经济增长，同类情况下收益率会多数走高。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting support rates among candidates for the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with former Economic Security Minister Takagi Sanae leading at 34% support, followed by Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro at 25% [3] - The support rates for Takagi and Koizumi have changed since the last survey in August, where Takagi had 23% and Koizumi 22%, indicating a widening gap in their support [5] - The survey also revealed that the most discussed policy topics among respondents for the LDP presidential election include "price measures" (48%), "pensions" (28%), and "economic growth" (27%) [5] Group 2 - The approval rating for the outgoing Shibo Mo cabinet stands at 37%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from August, with 57% of respondents indicating they do not support the cabinet [5] - The party support rates show the LDP at 31% (up from 28% in August), while other parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party remain stable at 7% [5] - The survey was conducted by Nikkei Research from September 26 to 28, using random digit dialing (RDD) and included 915 responses, achieving a response rate of 39.9% [6]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of October 3 is 2.37%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,190.38[19]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in China has shifted from tight to loose, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repos to support the market, indicating a proactive stance on maintaining liquidity during the quarter-end period [1][12]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields reaching 1.83% and 2.14% respectively, before retreating as equity markets adjusted [1]. - The central bank's actions included a total of 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos and maintaining MLF operations, reflecting a clear intention to support liquidity [1][12]. Bond Yield Changes - As of September 26, 2025, the yields on various maturities showed mixed movements compared to September 19, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.74 basis points [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight decrease of 0.21 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points over the same period [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 102 bonds were issued, amounting to 579.73 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 247.53 billion yuan and 78 local government bonds totaling 196.05 billion yuan [7]. - Upcoming issuance plans for the week of September 28 to September 30 include 33 bonds, all of which are local government bonds, totaling 107.15 billion yuan [8]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw yields rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments [9][10]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the path of interest rate cuts indicates a complex outlook for global monetary policy, which may impact investor sentiment in the bond markets [9][10][11]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial market, while also addressing the challenges of domestic demand and low inflation [13][17]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable yuan exchange rate and enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market was highlighted as a key focus area [1][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities and Caitong Securities noted that the current monetary policy reflects a balance between stability and flexibility, with expectations of controlled liquidity pressure in the upcoming month [18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with suggestions for investors to adopt strategies focused on short-term bonds and high-quality credit instruments [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of GDPval, a new evaluation method by OpenAI that assesses AI model performance on economically valuable real-world tasks, indicating that AI is nearing human-level performance in various industries [1][3][22]. Group 1: Evaluation Methodology - GDPval uses GDP as a key economic indicator and extracts tasks from critical occupations in the top nine industries contributing to the GDP [3][16]. - The evaluation includes 1,320 professional tasks, with a golden open-source subset of 220 tasks, designed and reviewed by experienced professionals [18][22]. - Tasks are based on real work outcomes, ensuring the evaluation's realism and diversity compared to other benchmarks [18][19]. Group 2: Model Performance - The evaluation results show that leading models like Claude Opus 4.1 and GPT-5 are approaching or matching the quality of human experts in various tasks [4][9]. - Claude Opus 4.1 excels in aesthetic tasks, while GPT-5 performs better in accuracy-related tasks [9][10]. - Performance improvements have been significant, with task completion speed being approximately 100 times faster and costs being 100 times lower than human experts [13]. Group 3: Industry Impact - AI has reached or surpassed human-level capabilities in sectors such as government, retail, and wholesale [7]. - The early results from GDPval suggest that AI can complete some repetitive tasks faster and at a lower cost than human experts, potentially transforming the job market [21]. - OpenAI aims to democratize access to these tools, enabling workers to adapt to changes and fostering economic growth through AI integration [21]. Group 4: Future Developments - OpenAI plans to expand GDPval to include more occupations, industries, and task types, enhancing interactivity and addressing more ambiguous tasks [22]. - The ongoing improvements in the evaluation method indicate a commitment to better measure the progress of diverse knowledge work [22].

突尼斯国家统计局（INS）近日宣布，2025年上半年突尼斯经济增长2.4%。2025年第二季度经季节性调 整后的国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长3.2%。环比增长了1.8%。 （原标题：2025年上半年突尼斯经济增长2.4%） ...

其实今儿的关键就一个：美联储最认的PCE数据，没掉链子。8月核心通胀同比2.9%，全部项目2.7%，环比0.3%——说直白点，全踩在市场预期的点子 上，既没超出去让人慌"通胀反弹"，也没低到让人疑"经济冷了"，就像给慌了三天的投资者递了颗温吞的定心丸。 个股这边也有几个小线索：波音沾了FAA放宽交付限制的光，股价往上走；英特尔在跟苹果、台积电谈合作，AMD反倒被"木头姐"减了仓；礼来新药批 了要进印度，咱们国内的理想发了新五座SUV，小鹏还闯了瑞士、奥地利五个国家——这些公司的动作，慢慢攒着，都是看长线的小拼图。 前一天刚出的消息还挺挠人：就业数据挺猛，申领失业金的人少了，二季度GDP还往上修到3.8%，当时不少人嘀咕"这经济看着还行，美联储会不会少降 两次息？"结果今儿PCE一出来，那点嘀咕就淡了——市场接着押注，今年还能降两次，每次25个基点，跟美联储自己的预测对上了。TradeStation那个策 略主管大卫·拉塞尔说得实在，"跌了三天，这数据够把观望的买家喊回来"，可不是嘛，对咱们做中长线的来说，市场不怕波动，就怕"意料之外"，这次 没出岔子，就是最好的信号。 说到底，今儿美股反弹不是瞎涨，是PCE给 ...

会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节， 综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷 款市场报价利率改革效能持续释放，存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥，货币政策传导效率增强， 社会融资成本处于历史较低水平。外汇市场供求基本平衡，经常账户顺差稳定，外汇储备充足，人民币 汇率双向浮动，在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。金融市场总体运行平稳。 据央行网站，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第110次）例会于9月23日召开。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳中有 进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功 能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary measures [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting acknowledges the complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while recognizing the steady progress of China's economy despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][3] - The PBOC calls for large banks to play a key role in supporting the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3] - The meeting stresses the need for effective implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][4] Group 3 - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of aligning monetary policy with the goals of high-quality development and the new development paradigm, focusing on domestic circulation and balancing supply and demand [4] - The meeting underlines the necessity of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stimulate domestic demand and consolidate economic recovery [4]