Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 900 points, indicating heightened market volatility and a shift towards risk aversion due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index fell below the 40,000 mark, with approximately 90% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange declining, reflecting a broad sell-off in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data and the announcement of a Federal Reserve board member's resignation contributed to a noticeable appreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market consensus indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is almost certain, with attention now shifting to the pace of potential cuts, specifically whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point reduction, and whether further cuts will occur in October [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has postponed the implementation date of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 7, allowing more time for technical preparations by U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1] - The new tariffs will range from 15% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, with a 10% import tax on all other countries not on the list [1] - Recent agreements have been reached with several countries, including Japan and South Korea, but many lack formal documentation, raising concerns about the credibility of these agreements [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes a significant investment clause, with Japan committing to a $550 billion investment and loan plan, which is over 10% of Japan's GDP [5] - Japan's automotive industry, which employs over 5 million people, is heavily impacted by these trade negotiations, as automotive exports to the U.S. account for over one-third of Japan's total exports [6] - The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and increase defense spending with the U.S. [7] Group 3 - The U.S.-Korea agreement will impose a uniform 15% import tariff on Korean goods while exempting U.S. exports to Korea from tariffs [13] - The deal includes a $350 billion investment commitment from Korea for U.S.-led projects and a promise to purchase $100 billion worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas [15] - Similar to the U.S.-Japan agreement, the U.S.-Korea deal does not address tariffs on key industrial products like steel and aluminum, leaving the Korean steel industry in a precarious position [14] Group 4 - Taiwan is seen as a "loser" in the tariff adjustments, facing a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S., which is higher than the rates for Japan and Korea [17] - The EU and U.S. reached a tariff agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel exports [19] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years and investing $600 billion in the U.S. [20] Group 5 - Southeast Asian countries are increasingly reliant on the U.S. market, with Vietnam being the first to reach a tariff agreement, which includes a 20% tariff on most goods [26][27] - Indonesia has agreed to a 19% tariff on its exports to the U.S. while committing to purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy products [29] - The U.S. is applying pressure on Southeast Asian nations, which are seen as critical in the trade dynamics with China [32][33] Group 6 - The U.S. is experiencing a rise in its overall tariff levels, with the average tariff rate exceeding 16%, the highest since the 1930s [40] - Despite concerns about the economic impact of high tariffs, recent economic data shows strong GDP growth and resilient consumer spending in the U.S. [48][49] - Analysts suggest that the apparent economic strength may be influenced by companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariffs, leading to a temporary boost in economic indicators [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on people's livelihoods as a key point for economic work in the second half of the year, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to development and social welfare [1] Group 1: Economic Development and Livelihood - Improving living standards is directly linked to economic development, with significant investment opportunities in the construction of quality housing, communities, and urban areas [1] - The aging population is creating a trillion-yuan level consumer market, shifting from basic needs to enhancing quality of life for the elderly [1] Group 2: Investment in People - Recent policies such as childcare subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education aim to reduce family childcare costs, indicating a shift towards investing in human capital [1] - Allocating more resources to social welfare initiatives will drive sustained economic growth [1] Group 3: High-Quality Development - The relationship between high-quality development and high-quality living standards is emphasized, suggesting that they can mutually promote and interact positively [1] - The article concludes with a positive outlook on China's economic potential and growth momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chile's economy has emerged from the post-pandemic adjustment period and is showing stable growth, with expectations of an annual growth rate approaching 3% by June 2025, driven significantly by non-mining activities [1] Economic Growth - The monthly economic activity index (Imacec) for June is expected to continue its growth trend, contributing to the overall positive economic outlook [1] - The economic growth rate over the past 20 months has exceeded the average growth rate of the seven years prior to the pandemic [1] - Growth momentum is anticipated to accelerate starting from the third quarter of 2024 [1] Mining Sector - The exemption of tariffs on Chilean copper by the United States is viewed as a significant positive development for the mining sector [1] - Ongoing negotiations between the two countries will be crucial, and potential policy changes should be monitored closely [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jordan's economy has shown a growth rate of 2.7% in both the last quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of this year, with expectations to maintain this growth rate throughout the year [1] Economic Performance - Inflation rate in Jordan for the first half of the year is recorded at 2% [1] - Tourism revenue has reached $3.7 billion [1] - Foreign exchange reserves stand at $22 billion, sufficient to cover 8.4 months of import needs [1] - Bank deposits in May amounted to 477 billion Jordanian Dinars [1] Economic Vision Progress - The Central Bank of Jordan has completed 90 out of 94 initiatives outlined in the 2023-2025 economic vision, with the remaining initiatives progressing smoothly [1]

美联储日前宣布，7月议息会议决定维持联邦基准利率不变。而此次会议中有两位美联储理事提出不同意见，受到外界广泛关注。 《纽约时报》网站报道截图 另有数据显示，美国2025年二季度经济按年率计算增长3%。分析指出，这份成绩单背后却"暗藏玄机"。无论是美联储内部的分歧，还是"表面光鲜"的经济 数据都与美国的关税政策脱不了干系。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道截图 "美联储不会因特朗普施压而降息" 此次美联储议息会议之所以备受关注，因为美国总统特朗普于7月24日罕见造访美联储总部，这是近20年来美国现任总统首次正式访问美联储。 《金融时报》称其为"极不寻常"的举动。此次访问被外界视为特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的重要信号。 面对巨大压力，鲍威尔7月31日在议息会议后的记者会上坚称，在联邦公开市场委员会绝大多数成员看来，当前的美联储的利率政策"没有抑制美国经济增 长"，适度限制性的货币政策在当前是"适当的"。 《金融时报》网站报道截图 《华尔街日报》报道称，由于特朗普的关税政策有可能在拖慢经济发展的同时推高物价。在此背景下，是支撑经济增长，还是遏制通货膨胀，这让美联储难 下判断。 《华尔街日报》网站报道截图 美国消费 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Monthly Report (July 2025) [2] - Author: Fan Ling - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Institution: AVIC Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand dynamics of raw materials and finished products, and downstream consumption trends. The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation. In the short - term, the aluminum price may fluctuate within a certain range, with support at 20,000 yuan/ton. Long - term trends depend on the implementation of policies, the recovery of downstream consumption, and the balance of supply and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the alumina futures price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 7.94%. The electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" with a base rate of 10%, and most countries' rates are within 20% [9][10]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic and employment data are strong, with inflation still at risk of rising. The strong economic fundamentals make the mutual exclusivity of a strong economy and interest rate cuts gradually apparent, and the expectation of a September interest rate cut may be further reduced [13][14]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of stable - growth policies. The manufacturing PMI and GDP growth rate show certain trends, and the government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is disturbed but relatively loose. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy season affected the shipment volume in July. However, the large increase in imports in the first half of the year and high available inventory, along with the resumption of production in previously shut - down mines, make the price of imported bauxite expected to have limited rebound [20][24]. - **Alumina Supply**: The expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. As of late July, the national alumina production capacity and operating capacity increased, and the operating capacity reached a new high for the year. The increase in production capacity is mainly due to the expansion of a medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong. In the future, with the commissioning of alumina production capacity in Indonesia and the possible opening of the import window, the import volume of alumina may increase [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to maintain high profits. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is significantly higher than that of upstream alumina and downstream aluminum products industries, and the supply is rigid. The utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%, and new production capacity is limited in the future due to the capacity ceiling. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year, and some capacity replacement projects were put into operation in July [32][36]. - **Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has no significant change recently. The 50 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of PT KALIMANTAN in Indonesia will be put into production in stages, with 10 tons expected to be put into production in 2025 and full production in 2027. If all overseas production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, the production growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% in 2026 - 2027 [38][39]. 3.4 Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Processing**: The average operating rate of downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly. Different sectors have different trends. For example, the aluminum foil sector has a production - reduction expectation in August, and the building materials sector continues to be in the off - season. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August, while the terminal consumption of primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors is difficult to improve significantly in August [41][42]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry is still weak. The new construction area, completion area, and investment in real estate development all decreased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and the real estate sector is still in the process of destocking [46][48]. - **Automobile Industry Demand**: The use of aluminum in the automobile industry will maintain a high - growth trend. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. Although the new - energy vehicle industry faces some growth - slowdown pressure, multiple favorable factors in the second half of the year will help drive automobile consumption growth, which will also drive the demand for aluminum [49][51]. - **Home Appliance Industry Demand**: The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The production schedule of air - conditioners in August decreased compared with the same period last year, but the decline rate has converged. High - temperature weather and replacement subsidies have promoted the sales of air - conditioners and reduced the inventory [52][54]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: The inventories of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased. The LME aluminum inventory reached a new high in more than three and a half months, and the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks [55][56]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventories**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the increase did not exceed the seasonal level, and the current inventory level is still relatively low, which still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm in August [58][59]. 3.6 Other Market Features - **Scrap Aluminum Market**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight, and the price is firm. The reasons include limited imports, limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and the procurement preference of large enterprises for large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers [61][62]. - **Price Difference between Electrolytic Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: The price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, mainly because the downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, while the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is relatively slow and that of domestic aluminum alloy social inventory is relatively fast [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of 31 provinces in China for the first half of the year shows significant competition, particularly between Hubei and Henan, with Hubei rapidly closing the economic gap [1][2]. Economic Performance - Henan's GDP reached 31,683.80 billion yuan, growing by 5.7%, while Hubei's GDP was 29,642.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, indicating Hubei's faster growth compared to Henan [1][2]. - The economic gap between Hubei and Henan has significantly narrowed over the past two years, from 5,066.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 2,041.19 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Investment and Consumption - Hubei's fixed asset investment grew by 6.5%, surpassing the national average of 3.7%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 12.5% [4]. - Hubei's retail sales reached 13,073.93 billion yuan, growing by 6.9%, which is higher than the national average [4]. Trade Performance - Hubei's total import and export volume exceeded 400 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 402.31 billion yuan, with exports growing by 38.5% [5]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 26.8%, accounting for 50.7% of total exports [5]. Henan's Economic Characteristics - Henan's economy showed "three fasts and two stability" in the first half of the year, with industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales all experiencing significant growth [6][7]. - The industrial production in Henan grew by 8.4%, with nearly 80% of industries maintaining growth [6].

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]

图片说明： 美联储决定维持利率不变，但下调了对美国经济的看法。图为7月30日纽交所内，电视正在播放美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话。（视觉中国） 本报记者 李迅典 本报特约记者 任 重 "美国经济二季度反弹掩盖了经济放缓的底层趋势"，路透社7月30日以此为题报道称，美国二季度（4月至6月）经济增长数据严重夸大了经济健康状况。美 国商务部周三公布的数据显示，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长3%，较一季度-0.5%的增速回升明显。美国总统特朗普在其社媒平台上称 赞这一经济数据，但路透社、美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）、《华尔街日报》等主要媒体纷纷表示，该数据可能并未准确反映经济实情，美国经济尚未脱 离困境，关税政策、"大而美"法案等因素仍让经济不断承压。GDP数据发布后的稍晚些时候，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变，并表示该决定是基于美国经济前景不确定性升高。 "经济仍在挣扎" 多家媒体分析称，进口下降是GDP数据上升的主要原因。受美国关税政策影响，一些企业在一季度提前进口囤货以规避冲击，拖累了数据增长。但企业在二 季度倾向消耗现有库存而非增加进口，从而提升了GDP数据。 ...