Group 1: Taxation and Economic Impact - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to raise £26 billion ($34 billion) in taxes to strengthen the national finances, which has faced collective criticism from CEOs of major UK companies [1] - Business leaders from various sectors, including hotels, insurance, and banking, argue that the budget fails to lay a foundation for economic growth, with some describing it as a "living off borrowed time" budget [1][2] - The increase in business tax rates is expected to force companies to slow down investments in the UK and reduce planned hiring [1][3] Group 2: Industry-Specific Concerns - Butlin's CEO Jon Hendry Pickup criticized the rising business tax rates, stating it would impact their investment and hiring plans, and expressed concern that the burden is not shared equally [1][2] - Peel Hunt Ltd. CEO Steven Fine expressed disappointment over the lack of bold measures in the budget, calling it a series of small-scale initiatives that do not benefit long-term economic development [2] - Phoenix Group Holdings Plc CEO Andy Briggs raised concerns about new limits on salary sacrifice for workplace pensions, suggesting it could discourage pension contributions [2] Group 3: Sector Reactions - Young & Co.'s Brewery Plc CEO Simon Dodd highlighted the negative impact of increased alcohol taxes and minimum wage hikes, which could lead to hiring freezes in the hospitality sector [3] - Funding Circle Holdings Plc CEO Lisa Jacobs described the budget as "relatively mild" for small businesses, noting potential benefits from adjustments in business tax rates but lamenting the lack of changes to financing support [4] - Associated British Foods Plc CEO George Weston welcomed the commitment to close tariff loopholes for low-value imports but expressed disappointment over high tax rates on large properties [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Policy - Auto Trader Group Plc CEO Nathan Coe criticized the government's confusing approach to electric vehicles, as new mileage-based taxes are set to be introduced while promoting zero-emission vehicles [5] Group 5: Digital Economy Initiatives - Sage Plc CEO Steve Hare praised the budget for its "robust" approach benefiting small businesses and welcomed plans for mandatory electronic invoicing, highlighting the government's commitment to digitalizing the economy [6]

Group 1: MSCI China Index Outlook - UBS expects the MSCI China Index to reach a target of 100 points next year, indicating a double-digit upside from current levels driven by strong corporate earnings growth [1] - The optimistic outlook for the MSCI China Index is primarily based on confidence in corporate earnings growth, with an anticipated overall earnings growth rate of 13% for Chinese companies in 2026, significantly higher than the 2% forecast for 2025 [1] - The technology sector, which comprises nearly 50% of the MSCI China Index, is particularly favored, with expected earnings growth of 37% in 2026 [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - UBS forecasts China's economic growth to reach 4.5% in the fourth quarter and 4.9% for the entire year of 2025, with a target range of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 [2] - Consumer spending is expected to continue its growth trend, projected to increase by 3% next year, while real estate investment is anticipated to decline for the next 1 to 3 years after a drop of over 10% for three consecutive years [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Asset Allocation - UBS predicts the RMB/USD exchange rate may strengthen to 7.0 by the end of this year and potentially return to the "6 era" at 6.9 by June next year, alongside expectations of 20 to 30 basis points of interest rate cuts and two reductions totaling 50 to 100 basis points [3] - The company recommends diversifying investment portfolios by including private equity and private debt products, alongside traditional stocks and bonds, to mitigate market volatility risks [3] - UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold, suggesting a 5% to 8% allocation in investment portfolios due to geopolitical risks and the anticipated dollar interest rate cuts [3]

韩国央行周四宣布，将7天期回购利率维持在2.5%不变，连续第四次按兵不动。这一决定符合市场预 期，24位受访经济学家中有21位此前预测利率将保持不变，其余3位则预计降息25个基点。 韩国央行行长李昌镛将于下午举行新闻发布会，预计将就政策利率路径、委员投票情况及房地产与汇率 风险作出进一步说明。市场关注其是否仍将宽松视为可行选项，或转向更强调金融稳定的立场。 同日，韩国央行更新了宏观经济预测：将2025年实际GDP增长预期上调至1.0%，2026年增长预期由8月 预测的1.6%上调至1.8%。这一调整主要反映第三季度在强劲出口和私人消费稳步复苏支撑下的产出表 现。通胀方面，2026年消费者物价指数（CPI）预测从1.9%上调至2.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管整体价格趋势基本符合预期，但10月份核心CPI同比上涨2.4%，为2024年7月以来最快增速，略高 于预期。央行指出，未来通胀"预计将逐渐放缓"，理由包括油价同比下行及旅游成本趋于稳定。 另一位分析师Hyosun Kwon则认为，当前暂停"看起来不像是暂停，而更像是宽松周期的结束"，因更坚 实的增长和房价上行压力使政策制定者有空间等待。 韩国央行表示 ...

秋季预算正式公布之前，OBR意外提前发布了相关文件，该部门已对此事展开调查，并对"技术错误"道 歉。受该消息影响，英国基准10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点，达到4.535%。 当地时间11月26日，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）公布了其在任上的第二份财政预算 案，其中一项重要措施就是将个人所得税起征点冻结期延长三年。 此前，起征点通常随着消费者物价指数每年提升。2021年，保守党政府冻结了起征点，而随着工资持续 上涨，越来越多的人被纳入更高的税率区间，并缴纳更多个人所得税。英国预算责任办公室（OBR） 称，此举将为政府带来80亿英镑的收入。 一年前，里夫斯在其秋季预算案中提出了通过加税筹集400亿英镑的计划，引发工党支持率大幅下滑。 彼时，里夫斯曾承诺不再加税。如今，其所在的工党政府似乎已经放弃了这一承诺。 放弃直接提高所得税 在公布预算前的讲话中，里夫斯称，公众对"变革步伐缓慢感到沮丧"，将"采取公平且必要的措施"解决 生活成本危机。同时，她承诺不会推行紧缩政策，不会放任公共开支失控，也不会进行更多鲁莽的借 贷。 此前，政治新闻网英国版援引知情人士消息称，里夫斯正在酝酿一项折中的方案 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]

Group 1 - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has provided a more optimistic forecast for the UK economy, estimating a fiscal surplus of nearly £22 billion over the next five years, significantly higher than previous estimates [1] - The budget proposal includes measures such as extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds for three years, increasing taxes on dividends, property, and savings, and introducing new taxes on properties valued over £2 million [1] - The OBR has adjusted the GDP growth forecast for the UK to 1.5% for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast to 1.4%, indicating ongoing structural challenges that may limit long-term growth potential [1] Group 2 - The UK's actual inflation rate remains high at 3.6%, which is significantly above the target level, influencing the Bank of England's cautious stance on monetary policy [2] - Despite an expanded fiscal space, structural contradictions leading to a downward adjustment in trend growth rates pose long-term growth concerns for the UK economy [2]

智通财经APP获悉，英国官方预算监管机构在财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯发表讲话前提前"误发"的分析报告显 示，其关键财政缓冲空间已从3月份的99亿英镑扩大至220亿英镑(290亿美元)。 这一缓冲空间数字是自2022年3月以来英国支出计划中最大的，远高于调查银行预估中值的150亿英镑。 该关键指标是随着预算责任办公室史无前例地提前发布预算分析报告而公布的。 扩大的财政缓冲空间是通过增税298亿英镑实现的，包括对博彩业和高端房地产的新征税。 这份原本预计在里夫斯于下议院结束演讲后才公布的文件被提前发布，导致市场在涨跌之间波动，交易 员试图消化报告中相互矛盾的信息。 预算责任办公室确认了发布的真实性，但表示其网站上的预测链接"过早"上线。该机构为此错误道歉， 并表示已启动调查。 预算责任办公室估计，未来两年的通胀将比3月份的预测高出约0.5个百分点。受此修正影响，两年期英 国国债收益率上升约2个基点。 尽管财政缓冲空间高于预期，但整个预测期内的经济增长均被下调，以反映较低的生产率。 从泄露文件中明确的措施包括：对价值200万英镑及以上的住宅征收额外税收，并将房产和储蓄收入税 提高2个百分点。 文件称，超过2000英镑的养 ...

Group 1 - The US consumer confidence index for November dropped to 88.7, marking a seven-month low and falling short of market expectations [1] - The index decreased by 6.8 from the revised October figure, with the present situation index at 126.9, down 4.3, and the expectations index at 63.2, down 8.6 [1] - A reading below 80 typically indicates a potential recession [1] Group 2 - Consumers under 35 showed an increase in confidence, while those aged 35 and above experienced a decline, with the largest drop among those aged 55 and older [1] - The confidence index for consumers earning less than $15,000 increased, while other income groups saw declines [1] - Inflation and prices remain the primary concerns for consumers, followed by tariffs, trade, and political issues [2] Group 3 - Retail sales in September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the growth rate slowed compared to August and fell below market expectations [2] - Economists project a 3% growth for the US economy in Q3, with a slowdown expected in Q4, primarily due to the impact of the government shutdown [2]

Core Insights - The construction of the Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station in Côte d'Ivoire by China Power Construction Group is a significant step towards meeting the local electricity demand and promoting green transformation [2][3] - The project is part of a larger initiative to develop the Sassandra River basin, which has been a long-standing goal for the Ivorian government since the 1970s [3] - The hydropower station is expected to add approximately 550 million kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually, increasing the share of hydropower in the energy mix to 33% [3] Energy Demand and Structure - The Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station is the second hydropower project constructed by Chinese enterprises in the Sassandra River basin, following the successful commissioning of the Soubré Hydropower Station in 2017 [3] - The Soubré Hydropower Station has generated over 11 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, providing stable and green power for Côte d'Ivoire's economic development [3] - The new hydropower station will help balance the country's energy structure, which has been predominantly reliant on thermal power [3] Employment and Local Development - The construction of the Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station has created approximately 2,000 direct jobs, with around 1,300 jobs in the core construction phase and nearly 1,000 indirect jobs [5] - Local workers have been trained and promoted to various technical positions, contributing to the high-quality completion of the project [5] - The project aims to provide a growth platform for local workers, fostering the development of qualified technical talent [5] Training and Capacity Building - The collaboration between China Power Construction Group and the Ivorian Energy Company has focused on training local operation and maintenance personnel [6] - Local teams have gained proficiency in operating digital monitoring systems for the hydropower stations, enhancing their technical capabilities [6] - The successful operation of the Soubré Hydropower Station has provided valuable experience for the ongoing and future projects in the Sassandra River basin [6] Future Prospects - The Ivorian government has entrusted additional hydropower projects in the Sassandra River basin to China Power Construction Group, indicating confidence in their capabilities [6] - The ongoing collaboration is expected to yield further economic growth and energy transformation in Côte d'Ivoire [6]

Group 1 - The European Commission has raised the EU's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 1.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been increased from 0.9% to 1.3%, while the 2026 forecast has been reduced from 1.4% to 1.2% [1] - The EU's GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% this year, maintaining the same growth rate in 2026, and increasing to 1.5% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast is attributed to a rise in exports before anticipated tariff increases and sustained growth in the third quarter, indicating resilience in the European economy [2] - Economic growth in the EU and Eurozone is primarily driven by private consumption and investment [2] - Inflation in the Eurozone is projected to stabilize, with a forecast of 2.1% in 2025, decreasing to 1.9% in 2026 and hovering around 2.0% in 2027, mainly due to a decline in the price increases of services and food [2] Group 3 - The EU's public deficit is expected to rise from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.4% in 2027, partly due to an increase in defense spending from 1.5% to 2% of GDP during the same period [2] - Public debt in the EU is projected to increase from 84.5% of GDP in 2024 to 85% by 2027 [2] - The European Commission has called on member states to implement reforms outlined in the EU's economic competitiveness enhancement guidelines, particularly in simplifying legislation and improving the internal market, while also taking measures to stimulate economic growth [2]