达利欧还表示："显然，相较于美国股票，投资者更愿意配置非美股资产；同理，相较于美国债券与美 元现金，他们也更青睐非美债券资产……毋庸置疑，未来美联储的政策走向与生产力增长前景，都存在 着巨大的不确定性。种种迹象表明 ，新任美联储主席及联邦公开市场委员会大概率会倾向于压低名义 利率与实际利率。这一举措虽会对资产价格形成支撑，但也会进一步催生泡沫。" 桥水基金创始人达利欧当地时间1月5日在社交媒体平台X发文警告称，此前推动华尔街科技股大涨的人 工智能热潮 "目前已步入泡沫初期阶段"。 ...

在年末美元走弱和集中结汇等因素共同影响下，人民币对美元汇率在2025年年末迎来大涨。 2025年全年，人民币对美元即期汇率2025年升值超4.2%，人民币对美元中间价累计升值2.22%，离岸人 民币对美元汇率升值超4.8%。 "在短期强势后，我们大概率会看到人民币升值的斜率会平缓一段时间。具体的时间点可能在2026年的 春节前后，一方面，美元进入到2月份会呈现反弹的季节性，这会减缓人民币汇率的升值动能。另一方 面，春节以后境内人民币市场的季节性结汇因素会显著减弱。"中金公司在研报中指出，中长期来看， 人民币汇率继续走强的基础仍在一段时间内保持，在此期间内，人民币汇率或将维持温和走升的态势。 若持续升值对资产价格、出口有何影响 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园谈及人民币升值对资产价格的影响时指出，利好国内股市，对债市影响不显 著。其中，人民币升值将对A股形成利好，主要有两条传导路径：一是人民币升值有利于吸引外资流 入，二是人民币升值将打开货币政策的宽松空间。股市风格方面，历史经验显示，人民币升值对成长股 更有利，对大小盘风格的影响不显著。债市影响方面，人民币升值有利于国内资金面宽松，进而利好债 市。然而，近年来人民币汇 ...

货币政策将总量与结构并重。周君芝表示，会议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"，预计2026年至少降准降息 一次。"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"的表述，预示更多结构性 工具将出台。 财政政策将延续扩张态势，化债与改革同步推进。周君芝认为，会议强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量""重视解决地方财政困难"，预计2026年赤字率维持4%，中长期特别国债至少1.5万亿 元，专项债或扩至5万亿元。因今年近1.4万亿元专项债用于化债导致项目资金受限，明年规模提升将兼 顾化债与投资需求。同时，"健全地方税体系"指向税制改革落地，消费税征收环节后移、共享税比例优 化值得期待。 中证报中证网讯（记者 谭丁豪）2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中信建投证 券宏观经济首席分析师周君芝表示，积极政策取向未变，有利于经济修复和资产价格。2024年会议将财 政政策从"积极"调整为"更加积极"，货币政策从"稳健"改为"适度宽松"。今年定调与去年一致，明确"实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"， ...

2025 年 12 月 08 日 美联储主席换届交易指南 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 美联储的运行机制与货币政策的实施 1. 美联储系统包含 3 大关键实体机构，FOMC 是制定货币政策的核心。美联储 系统共包含 3 大关键实体机构（美联储理事会、12 家地方联储银行、联邦公开 市场委员会），并履行 5 大关键职能（执行美国的货币政策、促进金融体系的稳 定、 促进金融机构的安全与稳健、促进美元支付与结算体系的安全及效率、促 进消费者保护与社区发展），主要目标则是充分就业和物价稳定（双重使命）。 2. FOMC 人员构成多元，货币政策变动决策需经投票。拥有 FOMC 投票权的成 员共有 12 位，包括美联储理事会的 7 位理事、纽约联储行长、4 位轮值投票的 地方联储行长，每年会举行 8 次定期会议，货币政策变动决策均需经过投票。 特朗普有望对美联储领导层施加更大影响力 1. 目前美联储理事会人员构成有利于特朗普施加更大影响 ...

Mark the dollar. I think we will resume the structural depreciation trend next year. I think there are potentially a number of factors, right, in that the most important is because of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed.We know that the setting for monetary policy, wherever it's at, will be easier than Orthodox or Orthodox economics would recommend. And that is at a point when the rest of the world is coming, generally coming to the end of their easing cycles. I still think that the trade dynamic ...

Core Viewpoint - The current investment environment in China is characterized by a shift in asset pricing logic, focusing on "debt resolution, stable growth, and improved capital returns" as key policy themes [2][3] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The leverage ratio in China's non-financial sectors has exceeded 300%, necessitating a focus on "debt reduction" [2] - China's policy response has been proactive, maintaining an M2 growth rate of 8%-9%, significantly higher than Japan's 3%-4% during its deleveraging phase [2] - The real estate market serves as a critical indicator of policy effectiveness, with first-tier city housing prices retracting about 20%, lower than the 30% and 50% declines seen in the U.S. and Japan, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a relatively mild adjustment compared to the severe market shocks seen in Japan and the U.S. during their deleveraging phases, with new highs reached post "9.24" [3] - Successful deleveraging is expected to anchor long-term housing price growth between 0%-3%, while stock performance may surpass that of real estate [3] Group 3: Economic Structural Transition - China's economic structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with investment's contribution to GDP dropping from approximately 70% a decade ago to around 30%, while consumption now accounts for nearly 50% [4] - This shift is expected to keep interest rates under pressure while maintaining ample liquidity in the market [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The stock market has seen substantial gains, driven by abundant liquidity and reduced macroeconomic tail risks, with external demand emerging as a key catalyst [6] - The structure of China's export market is shifting towards emerging markets, which are becoming the main contributors to export growth, surpassing traditional markets like Europe and the U.S. [6] Group 5: Investment Logic in New Paradigm - The new investment logic suggests that domestic profit elasticity is generally weak, but liquidity may remain abundant, leading to a continued shift of household assets towards financial assets [7] - Growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals are expected to follow U.S. economic and technological cycles, while capital goods and commodities may align with emerging market cycles [7]

Group 1 - The Treasury's plans are generally less scrutinized compared to Federal Reserve announcements, but they hold significant implications for bond markets and other asset prices [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior, particularly in the context of equity analysis and research [1]. Group 1: Professional Background - The expert has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction [1]. - The professional background includes advising on and implementing multi-asset strategies, with a strong emphasis on equities and derivatives [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The goal of sharing insights is to make investing accessible, inspiring, and empowering for fellow investors [1]. - The expert encourages building confidence in long-term investing through shared knowledge and collaboration [1].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of October 3 is 2.37%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,190.38[19]

Group 1 - The core message of Powell's speech emphasizes the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, indicating that the policy rate remains moderately restrictive, allowing for potential further rate cuts within the year [3][4] - The labor market is showing significant weakness, with an average monthly job growth of only 29,000 over the past three months, which is well below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate [3] - Inflation concerns persist, with the core PCE inflation rate at 2.9% year-over-year in August, higher than the previous year's 2.3%, and tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price level increase [3][4] Group 2 - Financial stability risks are currently low, with healthy bank capital and household balance sheets; however, stock valuations are considered high, which may lead to tighter financial conditions [5] - Powell indirectly addressed political pressures on the Federal Reserve, asserting that monetary policy decisions will not be influenced by partisan politics [5] - The uncertainty surrounding public policies, including fiscal and regulatory factors, is contributing to hiring slowdowns, particularly affecting younger workers [5][6] Group 3 - Market interpretations suggest that Powell's remarks create a pathway for potential rate cuts in Q4, with a likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November or December if labor market weakness continues [6] - The current policy rate is described as moderately restrictive, with future decisions dependent on data; if employment continues to weaken, further rate cuts may occur despite slightly elevated core inflation [6]