编辑|Z.Y 离岸、在岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.84关口，创下新高。短短一段时间，人民币从7.4的低位一路飙 升至6.84，这样的升值速度堪称"核爆"级。 随之而来的，是全网最关心的两个问题：国内通胀会不会跟着抬头？各类资产价格真的要全面起飞吗？ 升势猛 人民币这次的升值势头，远比大家想象的更强劲，而且不是短期波动，而是持续走强的趋势。回顾近期 走势，2月20日以来，人民币迎来五连涨，离岸人民币兑美元累计上涨600多个基点，涨幅接近1%。 如果把时间拉长到2026年开年，升值幅度更为明显。 截至2月26日，离岸人民币兑美元累计升值近1400个基点，幅度达到2%，从年初的高位逐步回落，一路 突破6.9、6.85等关键关口，最终站稳6.84上方。 2月26当天，人民币对美元中间价报6.9228，较前一天上调93个基点，同样创下2023年5月中旬以来的新 高。 美元承压下跌，也间接推动了人民币升值。近期，美国司法部对美联储主席发起刑事调查，美联储的独 立性受到冲击，市场对美元的信任度下降，导致美元指数走弱，非美货币集体走高，人民币也顺势迎来 升值。 更值得关注的是，2月26日盘中，离岸人民币兑美元一度跌破6.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor sentiment remains "extremely bullish," but further price increases in assets during the first quarter will be more challenging as nearly everyone has already positioned for the rise [1] Group 1: Investor Positioning - The allocation to commodities has reached its highest level since May 2022, with a net allocation of 28% [1] - The allocation to equities has risen to its highest level since December 2024, with a net allocation of 48% [1] - The underweight position in bonds is at its highest since September 2022, with a net underweight of 40% [1] - Cash levels have slightly increased from a record low of 3.2% last month to 3.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by Guotou Ruijin Fund Company to change the valuation method of its silver fund to reflect international silver prices, which has led to significant dissatisfaction among investors due to increased losses during a period of market volatility [2][3][4][7]. Group 1: Fund Valuation Change - Guotou Ruijin Fund Company announced that the valuation of its silver fund would now be based on international silver prices instead of domestic prices [2]. - This change resulted in a drastic loss for investors, as the international silver price dropped by 31% over two trading days, while the domestic market has a limit of 17% for daily price declines [4][5][6][7]. - The adjustment was made to ensure that the fund's valuation reflects the true market value of its underlying assets, which are determined by international prices [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investor Impact - The change in valuation rules meant that investors who planned to redeem their shares would face a loss of 31% instead of the previously expected 17% [6][7]. - The fund company aimed to protect remaining investors by preventing a situation where early redeeming investors could benefit from inflated prices at the expense of those who stayed [15][19]. - The decision to announce the change after market hours was likely intended to avoid panic selling and protect the interests of remaining investors [20][21][22].

北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此前连 续三次的降息。中信证券海外宏观联席首席分析师李翀表示，结合本次利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔在 任期间，美联储或不再实施降息操作。 通胀层面，李翀分析说，若不新增关税，鲍威尔将预计关税通胀见顶的时间从一季度后移至年中，这是 相较于2025年12月会议偏鹰的表态。加之特朗普多次释放关税威胁，新政策落地存疑，预计鲍威尔任内 剩余两次会议将暂停降息。 资产价格方面，美股、美债及美元波动温和。在偏鹰会议背景下，贵金属价格大幅走高，其走势主要受 地缘因素与市场情绪驱动。 美联储此次议息会议声明与前次差异显著，李翀总结四方面调整：一是经济活动表述从"以温和步伐扩 张"改为"以稳健步伐扩张"；二是就业表述更新为"就业增长仍处较低水平，失业率显现稳定迹象"，此 前表述为"就业增长放缓、失业率截至9月略有上升，近期指标与上述一致"；三是通胀表述精简为"通胀 仍偏高"，删除了"较年初有所上行"的表述；四是风险判断删除"近期就业下行风险上升"，仅保留"关注 双重使命两侧风险"。 就业市场方面，李翀认为，美国虽维持"低招聘+低裁员"格局 ...

Group 1 - The founder of Bridgewater, Dalio, warns that the AI-driven surge in tech stocks has entered the early stages of a bubble [1] - Investors are showing a preference for non-US assets over US stocks, and similarly favor non-US bonds over US bonds and cash [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the future direction of the Federal Reserve's policies and productivity growth prospects [1] Group 2 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman and the Federal Open Market Committee are likely to lean towards lowering nominal and real interest rates [1] - This potential action may support asset prices but could also further fuel the bubble [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with a rise of over 4.2% in 2025, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and concentrated settlement [1] - In 2025, the onshore yuan against the US dollar is projected to appreciate by over 4.2%, while the offshore yuan is expected to rise by over 4.8% [1] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the yuan will maintain a strong position, while medium to long-term expectations indicate a moderate appreciation trend [2][3] Group 2 - The chief economist at CITIC Securities anticipates that the yuan will run strong in the short term, despite potential volatility due to seasonal settlement effects at year-end [2] - The yuan's strength is supported by a significant trade surplus, but there are concerns about potential narrowing of this surplus in the future [2] - The central bank's exchange rate policy aims to stabilize expectations, as indicated by the shift in the central bank's middle rate quote compared to market expectations [2] Group 3 - The impact of yuan appreciation on asset prices is generally positive for the domestic stock market, particularly benefiting growth stocks, while the effect on the bond market is less significant [4] - Yuan appreciation is expected to attract foreign investment and create more room for monetary policy easing, which could further support the stock market [4] - Concerns about the yuan's appreciation affecting exports are mitigated by the nominal effective exchange rate remaining low, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese goods abroad [5]

货币政策将总量与结构并重。周君芝表示，会议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"，预计2026年至少降准降息 一次。"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"的表述，预示更多结构性 工具将出台。 财政政策将延续扩张态势，化债与改革同步推进。周君芝认为，会议强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量""重视解决地方财政困难"，预计2026年赤字率维持4%，中长期特别国债至少1.5万亿 元，专项债或扩至5万亿元。因今年近1.4万亿元专项债用于化债导致项目资金受限，明年规模提升将兼 顾化债与投资需求。同时，"健全地方税体系"指向税制改革落地，消费税征收环节后移、共享税比例优 化值得期待。 中证报中证网讯（记者 谭丁豪）2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中信建投证 券宏观经济首席分析师周君芝表示，积极政策取向未变，有利于经济修复和资产价格。2024年会议将财 政政策从"积极"调整为"更加积极"，货币政策从"稳健"改为"适度宽松"。今年定调与去年一致，明确"实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Function - The Federal Reserve System consists of three key entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for monetary policy formulation[2] - The FOMC has 12 voting members, including 7 governors from the Board, the New York Fed President, and 4 rotating regional Fed Presidents, meeting 8 times a year to vote on monetary policy changes[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - With Powell's retirement, Trump is expected to nominate two new governors in 2026, potentially increasing his influence to 4 out of 7 governors, exceeding 50% of the Board[3] - The selection of a new Fed Chair will require a balance of loyalty to Trump and market trust, complicating the nomination process[3] Group 3: Challenges for the New Fed Chair - The new Fed Chair will face challenges in balancing political pressure from Trump with the Fed's independence, especially in a high inflation and weakening labor market context[4] - The new Chair's influence in 2026 may be limited as they will need time to establish authority and navigate existing policies[4] Group 4: Impact on Asset Prices - The impact of the Fed Chair transition on asset prices will vary by scenario, with short-term effects on long-term Treasury yields likely minimal, depending more on economic conditions[5] - Long-term effects on the dollar and stock market will depend on the new Chair's control over the Fed and potential policy reforms[5]

Group 1 - The dollar is expected to resume a structural depreciation trend in 2026, influenced by various factors including pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [1][4] - The current monetary policy setting is easier than traditional economics would suggest, coinciding with the end of easing cycles in other parts of the world [2] - Despite less pain from the trade war than anticipated, its effects continue to impact the economy negatively, with repatriation flows from US corporates having propped up the dollar recently [3] Group 2 - A weaker dollar is seen as an easing of financial conditions, benefiting global stock markets, particularly outside the US [5] - The depreciation of the dollar amplifies returns from foreign investments, encouraging diversification trades [6] - The US market's exceptionalism is expected to decline, with a decrease in its share of global market capitalization anticipated to continue into 2026 [6] Group 3 - There is a belief in the market that the Fed will be pressured to cut rates more aggressively than it would otherwise, which could positively impact asset prices [8][9] - The potential for a steepening of the yield curve due to central bank actions has not yet materialized, despite being a concern for the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment environment in China is characterized by a shift in asset pricing logic, focusing on "debt resolution, stable growth, and improved capital returns" as key policy themes [2][3] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The leverage ratio in China's non-financial sectors has exceeded 300%, necessitating a focus on "debt reduction" [2] - China's policy response has been proactive, maintaining an M2 growth rate of 8%-9%, significantly higher than Japan's 3%-4% during its deleveraging phase [2] - The real estate market serves as a critical indicator of policy effectiveness, with first-tier city housing prices retracting about 20%, lower than the 30% and 50% declines seen in the U.S. and Japan, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a relatively mild adjustment compared to the severe market shocks seen in Japan and the U.S. during their deleveraging phases, with new highs reached post "9.24" [3] - Successful deleveraging is expected to anchor long-term housing price growth between 0%-3%, while stock performance may surpass that of real estate [3] Group 3: Economic Structural Transition - China's economic structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with investment's contribution to GDP dropping from approximately 70% a decade ago to around 30%, while consumption now accounts for nearly 50% [4] - This shift is expected to keep interest rates under pressure while maintaining ample liquidity in the market [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The stock market has seen substantial gains, driven by abundant liquidity and reduced macroeconomic tail risks, with external demand emerging as a key catalyst [6] - The structure of China's export market is shifting towards emerging markets, which are becoming the main contributors to export growth, surpassing traditional markets like Europe and the U.S. [6] Group 5: Investment Logic in New Paradigm - The new investment logic suggests that domestic profit elasticity is generally weak, but liquidity may remain abundant, leading to a continued shift of household assets towards financial assets [7] - Growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals are expected to follow U.S. economic and technological cycles, while capital goods and commodities may align with emerging market cycles [7]