Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese capital market** and the **Yajiang Investment** project related to the construction of hydropower stations on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, with a total investment of **1.2 trillion yuan** (approximately **$173 billion**) [1][9][12]. Core Points and Arguments - **Market Sentiment and Inflation Expectations**: The current market is experiencing inflation expectations driven by the anti-involution policy and Yajiang Investment, but there is caution regarding the sustainability of the cyclical sector's rise [1][2]. - **Steps to Overcome Deflation**: China needs to undergo three steps to exit deflation: monetary easing (already implemented in 2024), structural policies (which have limited but necessary effects), and balance sheet clearing (anti-involution) [1][5]. - **Impact of Yajiang Investment**: While Yajiang Investment is crucial for the construction of hydropower stations, its macro contribution to overall infrastructure investment and GDP growth in China is limited, necessitating observation of its sustained impact on cyclical stocks [1][6][9]. - **Risk Appetite in Capital Markets**: The increase in risk appetite in the Chinese capital market this year is attributed to expectations surrounding anti-involution and Yajiang Investment, as well as a rebound in dollar liquidity [1][7]. - **Stock Market Bullishness**: The Shanghai Composite Index surpassing **3,600 points** has sparked discussions about the onset of a bull market, but there is a cautious outlook on its sustainability [2][3][4]. - **Investment Projections**: The new hydropower project is expected to have an annual investment of approximately **120 billion yuan** (around **$17 billion**), which is about **0.8%** of the projected **14 trillion yuan** infrastructure scale for 2024 [3][13]. - **Multiplier Effect on GDP**: The actual multiplier effect of the new hydropower project on GDP may be less than one due to factors like capital outflow from imported equipment, leading to limited short-term GDP impact [14][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Infrastructure Investment Calculation**: Since 2018, specific amounts for infrastructure investment by industry are no longer published, making accurate calculations challenging. Current estimates suggest the infrastructure scale is around **14 trillion yuan**, which is significantly lower than some extrapolated figures [11]. - **Long-term Economic Effects**: While the short-term impact of the new hydropower project on GDP is limited, it is expected to generate positive spillover effects in the long run, potentially increasing GDP by over **0.1 percentage points** annually [14][17]. - **Incremental Investment Uncertainty**: There is uncertainty regarding whether the new hydropower project constitutes purely incremental investment, which could significantly affect the assessment of its economic impact [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese capital market, the implications of the Yajiang Investment project, and the broader economic context.

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing heightened enthusiasm, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3600 points, marking a new high for the year and the first time since January 2022 that it closed above this level [1] - In contrast, the bond market has faced challenges, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising from 1.64% on July 9 to 1.74% on July 24, an increase of approximately 10 basis points [1] Factors Influencing Market Sentiment - The shift in short-term risk appetite is attributed to several factors, including the introduction of anti-involution policies that have boosted market inflation expectations and the commencement of major hydropower projects that have ignited bullish sentiment [1] - External market stability and a temporary stabilization of the RMB exchange rate have also contributed to a recovery in risk appetite [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to concerns about the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, which may suppress bond performance. Historical data indicates that past stock rallies typically led to a more significant increase in bond yields compared to the current situation [2][3] - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, diverging from historical patterns where cyclical and consumer stocks led the charge [2] Policy Impact on Bonds - The anti-involution policies are not expected to pose substantial risks to the bond market in the short term, as the effects of these policies on industry profitability and inflation will take time to materialize [4] - The major hydropower project, while significant, has a long construction period of 10 years, limiting its immediate impact on bond supply [4] Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in the bond market may occur due to sentiment changes driven by key market themes, but the fundamental outlook of strong production and weak demand remains unchanged [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market conditions [4] Investment Strategies - For conservative investors, a "barbell strategy" combining short-term and long-term bonds is recommended to balance steady income and capital gains [6] - For those seeking moderate returns with limited risk tolerance, mixed funds that combine bonds with a small percentage of equities can provide a balanced approach to risk and return [9]

》》黄金走向：三重力量角力下的新格局 美联储高层更迭风波对黄金的影响正在形成三个维度的驱动力： 1.短期避险需求激增 事件敏感期内的任何突发消息都可能引发避险买盘。7月16日金价两小时内波动近60美元的极端行情已 经证明，政治不确定性已成为黄金短期波动的核心催化剂。 2.通胀预期升温 若美联储独立性受损，市场担心政治压力下的过度宽松政策将引发通胀失控。目前10年期盈亏平衡通胀 率已升至2.42%（近5个月高点），而黄金历来是对冲通胀的有效工具。 3.美元体系信心动摇 美联储独立性是美元全球信誉的基石。政治干预央行的风险已导致美元出现间歇性抛售。美元走弱直接 提升了以美元计价的黄金吸引力。 2025年7月16日，一则"特朗普起草解雇鲍威尔信函"的消息瞬间引爆全球金融市场，美股应声跳水，美 元暴跌，而现货黄金在两小时内疯狂波动近60美元。尽管特朗普当天晚些时候紧急否认该计划，但这 出"白宫逼宫"大戏已全面暴露了其与美联储主席之间不可调和的矛盾。随着特朗普于7月22日公开宣 布"鲍威尔将在八个月后下台"，这场围绕美联储最高权力的博弈，将如何重塑市场格局？投资者又该如 何把握黄金时刻？领峰环球为您分析事件潜在影响，助 ...

新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月25日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行24日将主要政策利率大幅下调300个基点至 43%，超过市场预期。这是自3月以来土央行首次下调基准利率，意味着此前因金融和政治动荡而中断 的降息周期重启。 分析人士指出，在主要反对派政治人物被捕引发市场剧烈反应后，如今局势趋稳，为政策放松创造了空 间。此次降息可能表明央行政策制定者认为市场已足够稳定，可以重新推进宽松政策。 此次降息决定公布后，里拉兑美元和欧元汇率基本保持稳定。土耳其央行最新调查显示，此次降息幅度 比市场平均预期高出约50个基点。与此同时，伊斯坦布尔BIST100基准股指一度上涨1%。 虽然重启降息周期，但土央行在声明中表示："在实现价格稳定之前，紧缩的货币政策立场不变，未来 将通过抑制国内需求、推动里拉实际升值和改善通胀预期，来支持通胀回落进程。" 土央行强调，未来是否继续降息，将"以通胀前景为重点，逐次会议审慎评估"。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）新兴市场经济学家尼古拉斯·法尔表示，尚不清楚土耳其央行为何采取如 此激进的降息行动，但从声明来看，政策制定者"对通胀压力减弱更加有信心"，也"可能受益于汇率压 力减轻带来的鼓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated. Gold prices were affected by factors such as US - EU tariff negotiations, Fed policy expectations, and US economic data. Silver was relatively strong due to semiconductor demand and tight inventories. Looking ahead, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals, while strong US economic data may suppress gold prices in the short - term. If inflation expectations rise or the Fed gives more dovish signals, precious metal prices could be boosted again [7]. - Gold is recommended to be bought on dips in the range of $3300 - 3400 per ounce, and silver should be watched in the range of $38.50 - 39.50 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week due to US fiscal and political uncertainties and approaching US - EU tariff negotiation deadlines. However, they dropped on Wednesday as the US - Japan agreement and progress in US - EU negotiations eased risk - aversion. Fed policy interpretations were divided, and strong economic data weakened September rate - cut bets, further pressuring gold. Silver was relatively strong, with COMEX silver futures reaching a high of $39.66 per ounce, supported by semiconductor demand and tight inventories [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the US - EU tariff negotiation has eased, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Strong US economic data may suppress gold in the short - term, but rising inflation expectations or dovish Fed signals could lift prices [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX silver was at $39.100 per ounce, up 1.63% week - on - week; Shanghai silver futures contract 2510 was at 9392 yuan per kilogram, up 2.24%. COMEX gold was at $3356.3 per ounce, down 0.05%; Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 was at 777.32 yuan per gram, up 0.26% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 24, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 15208 tons, up 3.5% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 0.9% [15]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 448531 contracts, up 1.22%, and net positions were 213115, up 5.00%. COMEX silver total positions were 171474 contracts, up 5.33%, and net positions were 59448, up 1.58% [19]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, up 3.30%, and non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, down 2.70% [24]. - **Basis**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.64 yuan per gram, up 0.27%; the silver basis was - 35 yuan per kilogram, up 43.55% [27]. - **Inventories**: As of July 24, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37616678.62 ounces, up 1.27%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 28857 kilograms, up 17.38%. COMEX silver inventory was 497984759 ounces, up 0.30%; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1211076 kilograms, down 7.10% [32]. 3.3 Silver Industry and Supply - Demand - **Imports**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports were 273364.75 kilograms, down 0.14% month - on - month; silver ore imports were 126019303.00 kilograms, down 7.51% [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a monthly output of 4506000 pieces and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.80% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3%. Supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% [47][51]. 3.4 Gold Industry and Supply - Demand - **Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold recycling price was 774.7 yuan per gram, up 0.28%. Gold jewelry prices of brands like Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu also rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93%; jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47%; total demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% [61]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Bonds**: This week, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined slightly due to fluctuating tariff expectations. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility index rose, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [63][68]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Tariff negotiations made progress, and inflation expectations declined recently. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate dropped this week [72]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [77].

花旗/益普索调查：7月份对英国未来5-10年的通胀预期降至4.2%，回到5月预期水平。 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that a stable downward trend in inflation expectations has not yet formed, and inflation expectations remain high [1] - There are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that future decisions regarding key interest rates will depend on the persistence of inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends to inform monetary policy decisions [1] - The focus on inflation expectations suggests a proactive approach to managing economic stability [1]

《华尔街日报》近期刊发了一篇深度分析文章，探讨了特朗普政府与美联储之间日益激化的冲突。 华尔街日报资深市场专栏作家James Mackintosh在文章中详细剖析了白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的策略及其可能产生的适得其反效果。 Mackintosh通过对市场数据和政策机制的深入分析，揭示了一个看似矛盾的现象： 特朗普越是公开施压美联储，反而越难达成其降息目标 。文章认为 ， 这场 争端本质上反映了制度独立性与民粹主义之间的根本分歧。 据Mackintosh统计，在特朗普呼吁降息3个百分点的第二天，纽约联储衡量的10年期期限溢价升至0.84个百分点，高于他在4月份类似攻击后回落时的0.6个百 分点，更远高于去年选举前一个月的零水平。 Mackintosh指出，特朗普近几周来加大了对鲍威尔的攻击力度，希望推动美联储降息。然而，文章称，" 他喊得越响，越不可能得到他真正想要的：更低的政 府借贷成本和更便宜的抵押贷款。 "这种施压策略可能正在破坏投资者信心，推高长期债券收益率。 文章强调，这场冲突的核心在于两种截然不同的治理理念碰撞。特朗普的观点体现了"人民的声音就是上帝的声音"这一民粹主义理念，而美联储则恰恰相反 ...

欧洲央行调查：2025年通胀预期为2.0%，此前为2.2%；2026年通胀预期为1.8%，此前为2.0%。 ...