Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current silver price trend shows dual - wheel drive characteristics, with the core being the increased instability of the credit currency system and the indication by the gold - silver ratio that the global economy is moving towards re - inflation [1]. - The fundamental aspect of silver is generally strong, but its strength is mainly based on investment and allocation needs rather than consumption - based demand [1]. - New industrial demands, especially the explosive growth of photovoltaic demand for silver, form the base of silver demand, while financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand for silver [1]. - The gradual repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of each silver bull market, and it also measures market risk preference this year [2]. - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage, but there are still many factors supporting the continued strengthening of silver prices, and the strong price state will last for a long time [2]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Core drivers, sustainability, and fundamental changes of silver price increase - The core drivers are the instability of the credit currency system and the indication of re - inflation by the gold - silver ratio. The fundamental aspect of silver is strong, and the strength comes from investment and allocation needs [1]. 2. Roles of new industrial and financial factors in silver demand - Photovoltaic demand has increased from less than 5% to 20% in the past five years, forming the base of silver demand. Financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand [1]. 3. Nature of the gold - silver ratio repair - The repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of the silver bull market and measures market risk preference this year. When market risk aversion eases, the gold - silver ratio decreases, often leading to an independent silver market [2]. 4. Stage of the silver bull market - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage in terms of time, but there are many factors supporting the continued rise of silver prices, and the strong price will last for a long time [2].

Group 1 - International silver prices experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over 1.00%, currently priced at $58.15 per ounce, indicating a short-term adjustment trend [1] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 60.79 tons, bringing the total to 15,863.15 tons [3] - Technical analysis for silver remains positive, with future resistance levels indicating an upward trend, targeting the $59 mark [4] Group 2 - Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at LPL Financial, expressed concerns that the Federal Reserve, under Hassett's leadership, may prioritize economic growth over price stability, potentially leading to uncontrolled inflation expectations [1] - Hassett has publicly stated his inclination towards aggressive rate cuts, suggesting an immediate rate reduction if appointed as Federal Reserve Chair [2] - Predictions from Deutsche Bank indicate that silver prices are expected to rise moderately over the next year, potentially reaching $59 per ounce [3]

韩国央行已将2024年通胀预期由2.0%上调至2.1%，并将2025年通胀预期调整为2.0%。这一调整表明， 尽管核心通胀略有缓和，但中期价格压力仍被评估为略高于此前判断。 数据显示，推动通胀的主要因素包括食品和非酒精饮料价格同比上涨4.7%、交通成本上升3.2%、餐饮 住宿价格上涨2.9%，以及住房和公用事业成本上涨1.2%。官方指出，韩元贬值推高进口成本，叠加政 府于10月部分取消燃油税补贴，共同导致燃料及相关支出上涨。 分析人士指出，稳定的通胀读数叠加楼市持续过热，使韩国央行在货币政策路径上趋于谨慎。在全球主 要经济体货币政策分化加剧的背景下，韩国若推迟降息时点，可能对跨境资本流动及区域金融市场情绪 产生外溢效应。 与此同时，房地产市场热度不减。据韩国房地产委员会数据，截至11月24日，首尔公寓价格已连续43周 上涨。这一趋势引发韩国央行对金融失衡风险的持续警惕。 韩国11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，与10月涨幅持平，略高于市场此前预期的2.3%中位 值。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨2.0%，较10月的2.2%有所回落。整体与核心 通胀率目前均维持在韩国央行设定的2 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly increased, boosting precious metal prices [2][5] - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to strong market expectations for a dovish stance from the Fed [2] - Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed results, with a notable increase in job creation but a rise in the unemployment rate, indicating potential economic challenges [3][4] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged due to a significant drop in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, reaching a near 10-year low, raising concerns about short-term supply tightness [1][5] - The global decline in silver inventories has led to a noticeable squeeze in the physical market, which may further drive up international silver prices [5][6] - The potential for tariffs on silver imports by the U.S. government could exacerbate supply constraints, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic challenges and the uncertainty surrounding the stock market's future performance, questioning the foundation of a bull market in terms of capital, earnings, policies, and the overall environment [1][2][10] - It highlights the disconnect between GDP growth and stock market performance, suggesting that the stock market is increasingly reflecting economic conditions, contrary to the belief that it is an independent entity [1][2] - The article mentions the potential for a localized technology bull market, drawing parallels to past market events, and suggests that the recent issues in the real estate sector may signify broader economic challenges [2][6] Group 2 - The current low asset return rates are prompting investors to consider stock investments as the only viable option, given the poor performance of traditional investments like real estate [3][14] - Inflation expectations are identified as a fundamental factor influencing market dynamics, with a suggestion that monetary expansion may be necessary to stimulate economic activity [4][15] - The article notes that while a widespread bull market may be difficult to achieve, sector-specific bull markets are still possible, emphasizing the need for strategic investment decisions rather than a passive approach [16]

【国富期货早间看点】印尼12月毛棕榈油参考价926.14美元/吨 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增110.80万吨 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4114.00 | 0. 61 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 32 | -0.95 | -1.02 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 48 | -0. 12 | -1.25 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1137.25 | 0. 44 | 0. 13 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 318. 60 | -0. 65 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52.08 | 2.02 | 0. 85 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (美分/浦式耳) | | (美元/吨) | | 进口大豆报价 | 美 ...

短期市场聚焦12月美联储会议，中长期"美联储降息周期+海外不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金 ETF（518800）。关注本周美国9月PCE报告，本周末中国公布11月央行购金情况等。 周度回顾： （1）海外经济 经济数据上：美国9月PPI温和反弹，核心商品分项出现回落。9月核心PPI环比回升0.2pp至0.1%，但低于预期（彭博一致预期，下同）的0.2%，核心PPI同比 2.6%，亦低于预期的2.7%。分项来看，核心商品价格整体温和，非耐用品与耐用品增速均出现放缓；核心服务中，波动较大的贸易服务分项降幅有所收 窄，运输仓储与建筑服务小幅升温。9月CPI整体放缓，但部分进入PCE的PPI分项（机票、医疗）边际升温，9月PCE通胀或整体温和。从通胀预期来看，11 月以来，2y、10y美债TIPS通胀预期分别下行17bp、8bp至2.43%、2.24%，5y5y通胀预期下行2bp至2.43%。 截至上周五（11月28日），伦敦现货黄金报收4218.55美元/盎司，自11月21日以来累计上涨154.27美元/盎司，涨幅3.80%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走 强，金价周一 ...

关于货币政策，植田和男明确表示："为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过 晚，也不能过早。"他解释称，即使政策利率上调，宽松的金融环境仍将维持；加息并非"踩刹车"，而 是"适度放松油门"，以支持经济与物价的稳定增长。 植田和男透露，日本央行将在12月会议上"基于各类数据，审视并讨论国内外经济活动与物价情况，以 及市场动态，并权衡加息的利弊"。他补充道，若经济与通胀预测如期实现，央行将根据改善情况继续 上调政策利率。 针对外部风险，植田和男称，尽管海外经济显现疲软迹象，但整体呈逐步回升态势；美国关税政策对全 球经济的影响迄今"并未明显显现"，且越来越多观点认为其对企业利润的影响有限。 此外，植田和男指出，实际利率仍处于极低水平，而汇率走势因企业定价行为变化，比以往更可能对国 内物价产生影响。 新华财经北京12月1日电日本央行行长植田和男重申，日本经济已实现"温和复苏"，并强调尽管2025年 第三季度GDP出现负增长，但该现象仅为暂时性波动。 植田和男指出，随着企业持续提高工资与价格，以及海外经济逐步回升，日本经济前景的不确定性正在 减弱。 植田和男表示，日本央行对经济活动和物价的基本判断未发生 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the gold and silver sectors, driven by rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a tightening supply-demand balance in precious metals [1][2] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) has seen a significant increase of 3.11%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (9.96%) and Hunan Silver (8.45%) [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which, along with a weakening US dollar, has provided strong support for gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities suggests that the gold and copper sectors may experience a favorable cross-year market starting in December, with a tightening supply-demand landscape and rising inflation expectations [2] - The gold sector's performance is further emphasized by the current low inventory levels in both the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which are at their lowest in nearly a decade [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks account for 68.26% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with silver prices reaching a historical high of $57.245 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 13% [1]. Group 1: Silver Market - COMEX silver futures surged to $57.245 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [1]. - London spot silver also broke through $56.5 per ounce [1]. - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, expecting it to reach $60 per ounce by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Gold and Copper Markets - Gold prices on COMEX have returned above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices are nearing historical highs [1]. - Although gold's price increase is not as significant as silver's, bullish sentiment in the market is re-emerging [1]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is supported by global economic uncertainty and rising inflation expectations [1]. - Factors such as high U.S. debt, geopolitical conflict uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases are providing long-term support for gold prices [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 85.4%, up from approximately 40% a week ago [1].