Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit fell sharply by nearly 24% in August, narrowing by $18.6 billion to a total of $59.6 billion, attributed to declining imports following new tariffs from the Trump administration [1][7]. Economic Impact - A narrowing trade deficit can indicate improved economic conditions, influencing prices and job availability. In August, imports declined by over 5% from July, while exports saw a slight increase [2]. - The improvement in the trade deficit is expected to positively impact third-quarter GDP, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve updating its GDPNow projection to 4.2% [4]. Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit has fluctuated throughout the year, with an initial increase due to a rush to import goods before tariffs were implemented, leading to a 0.6% contraction in economic growth in the first quarter. However, as imports decreased, GDP rose to 3.8% in the second quarter [5]. - Year-to-date through August, the U.S. trade deficit stands at $142.5 billion, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. Tariff Effects - Imports from Canada fell by $1.7 billion due to a 35% tariff on non-USMCA products, while U.S. exports to Canada increased, reducing the trade deficit with Canada to $3 billion [8]. - Swiss imports to the U.S. dropped by $6.8 billion in August following a 39% tariff, which was later reduced to 15% after negotiations [9].

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Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit for September decreased to $59.6 billion, better than the estimated $60.8 billion and significantly down from $78.3 billion in July [1][2] - This trade data is crucial for analysts as it completes the necessary information for the upcoming third quarter GDP report [2] Trade Data - Imports from Canada in September were at their lowest level since May 2021, indicating strained trade relations [3] - The Department of Labor will not publish missing data from the shutdown period but will make it available online [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The September jobs report is expected to be released soon, along with jobless claims from the previous week [3][5] - The third quarter GDP report will be released next week, with a second version expected due to surpassing initial estimates [5][6] - Future reports include November income and spending data scheduled for December 19th, while the status of October's jobs, CPI, and PBI remains uncertain [6]

Trade & GDP - The trade deficit decreased to $596 billion in September, compared to an estimate of $608 billion and $783 billion in July [1] - This trade data is crucial for analysts in finalizing the third quarter GDP report [2] - The third quarter GDP report will be released next week [2] International Trade - Imports from Canada in September reached their lowest level since May 2021 [3] Employment & Labor Market - The September jobs report and jobless claims data from last week will be released tomorrow [3] - The Department of Labor will release the missing data between the start of the shutdown and tomorrow's numbers online tomorrow afternoon [4] Economic Indicators & Data Release Schedule - Real earnings data will be released on Friday [5] - The September pie data will be released next Tuesday [5] - The second version of the third quarter GDP number, along with income and spending for October, will be released next Wednesday [5] - November income and spending data will be released on December 19th [6] - The status of October's jobs, CPI, and pie data remains unknown [6] - The release dates for November's jobs, CPI, and PBI data are still pending [6] - The status of October and November retail sales is still pending [6]

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to October fell by 1.7%, with private investment down by 4.5%[11][18] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% year-on-year, worsening by 0.8 percentage points[19] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points[18][26] - Infrastructure investment turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[18][26] - Excluding real estate, project investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year[18][26] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month[11][21] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, indicating a rebound in other consumer sectors[21][25] - Jewelry consumption saw significant growth, while automobile sales turned negative[21][25] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a foundation for achieving annual targets[5][29] - New policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in financial tools, aim to stabilize fixed investment and stimulate consumption[5][29] - Continued focus on releasing domestic demand potential is essential for the fourth quarter[5][29] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[6][30]

Core Insights - The core point of the article is that while U.S. factory orders showed a rebound in August, the decline in core shipments adds uncertainty to the economic growth outlook [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factory Orders Performance - U.S. factory orders increased by 1.4% month-over-month in August, reversing a 1.3% decline in July, driven primarily by a 2.9% surge in durable goods orders, particularly a 7.9% rise in transportation equipment orders [1][4]. - Year-over-year, factory orders rose by 3.8%, indicating a recovery from previous declines [4]. Group 2: Core Shipments and Economic Indicators - Core shipments, which are crucial for GDP calculations, fell by 0.4% month-over-month in August, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in July [3][6]. - The overall manufacturing product shipments decreased by 0.1% in August, ending a 0.9% growth trend from July [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Non-Durable Goods Orders - Manufacturing inventories remained stable in August, with a ratio of 1.56 between inventories and shipments, unchanged from July, indicating no significant inventory pressure [6]. - Non-durable goods orders also showed weakness, declining by 0.1% in August after a 0.3% increase in July [6]. Group 4: Data Timeliness and Market Implications - Analysts noted that the lag in data release diminishes its practical utility for assessing the current economic situation, as the August data was published three months later [7][9]. - Despite the overall stable performance of core durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% month-over-month, the timeliness of the data limits its effectiveness in guiding investor sentiment regarding the manufacturing sector [9].

30 years ago, all of this was just a disused dockyard. You had rusty cranes, empty warehouses. Ireland's economy was was really struggling.There was massive unemployment. Young people were leaving in their droves to try and find jobs elsewhere. And then the government decided to take a massive gamble, which wasn't uncontroversial at the time.They slashed the corporate tax rate to 12 and a half% which is way lower than you find in other developed countries. And it worked. That tax cut along with a suite of g ...

衡量一个国家（或地区）经济运行规模 GDP，其实就是国内生产总值的英文缩写。国内生产总值是国际上通行的、用于衡量一个国家（或地 区）经济运行规模的宏观经济指标，其在政治、经济、外交、研究等领域具有广泛应用。 国内生产总值，是指一个国家或地区所有常住单位在一定时期内生产活动的最终成果。国内生产总值有 三种表现形式，即价值创造、收入形成和最终使用。 从价值创造看，它是所有常住单位在一定时期内生产的全部货物和服务价值与同期投入的全部非固定资 产货物和服务价值的差额，即所有常住单位的增加值之和；从收入形成看，它是所有常住单位在一定时 期内形成的劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余等各项收入之和；从最终使用看，它是 所有常住单位在一定时期内最终使用的货物和服务价值与货物和服务净出口价值之和。 你可以把一个国家（或地区）想象成一个超大的"家庭"，这个家庭在一年里，会生产出无数的东西，比 如人们吃的粮食、穿的衣服、玩的玩具，还有游乐场提供的服务等等。GDP，就是计算这个"国家（或 地区）大家庭"在一年内生产的所有最终产品和服务的总价值。在一定程度上决定一个国家的话语权 来源：四川在线-华西都市报 制图王思祺 GD ...

And is the labor market in your view and we're going to hear more about it on Thursday. We'll finally get some numbers. >> Is it slowing at this point.And is uh on the other side the other part of the mandate uh is inflation uh are we seeing the beginnings of of another trend higher or do you think that's uh headed lower. No, I I I think on inflation, you know, the last CPI report we got surprised 48 Bloomberg economists on the downside and even had some sort of temporary bad news because there was a refine ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview and key events to watch from November 17 - 21, 2025, including economic data releases from multiple countries and regions and their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On November 19 at 18:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI - On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting - On November 20 at 09:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 loan prime rate (LPR), expected to be the same as the previous value - On November 20 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Federal Reserve officials for their impacts on the futures market [2] This Week's Hot - Spot Preview November 17 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Japan's Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is - 0.6% (previous value 0.5%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annualized GDP quarterly rate is - 2.5% (previous value 2.2%) [3] - The central bank carried out an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. With 300 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase maturing in November, this means an additional 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase was continued. It is bullish for stock index futures and commodity futures and relatively bullish for Treasury bond futures [4] - The National Energy Administration will announce China's total electricity consumption in October. The previous value was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5] November 19 - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI. The expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the harmonized CPI is 2.1% (same as the preliminary value in October, 2.2% in September's final value), and the expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the core harmonized CPI is 2.4% (same as the preliminary value in October and September's final value) [8] - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 14. The previous value was an increase of 6.413 million barrels. A continued increase may suppress the prices of crude oil and related commodity futures [9] November 20 - The People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 LPR. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both the same as the previous values [10] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting, which will provide details of discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic prospects and clues for future policy paths [11] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report. The expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is 50,000 (previous value 22,000), and the expected unemployment rate is 4.3% (same as the previous value). Higher new non - farm employment and a stable unemployment rate may reduce the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting and suppress the rise of commodity futures and stock index futures [12] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the October existing home sales. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total of existing home sales is 4.06 million households, the same as the previous value [13] - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November consumer confidence index. The expected value is - 14.5 (previous value - 14.2) [14] November 21 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of Germany's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 49.8 (previous value 49.6) [15] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 50.2 (previous value 50) [16]