瑞典央行行长特登：这反过来表明，在短期之后，通胀率可能会低于我们3月份的预测。 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones up 0.65%, Nasdaq down 0.18%, and S&P 500 up 0.41% [1] - The VIX index decreased by 4.24% to 17.83, indicating reduced market volatility [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.23% to 100.83, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond dropped by 2.399% to 4.435% [1] - Spot gold increased by 1.96% to $3239.58 per ounce, while Brent crude oil fell by 1.87% to $64.58 [1] Industry & Stocks - In the industry sector, all S&P 500 sectors except semiconductors, which fell by 0.64%, recorded gains, with utilities and consumer staples leading at 2.13% and 2.05% respectively [3] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with KWEB down 2.64% and Alibaba down 7.87%, reporting Q4 revenue growth of only 7% year-on-year [3] - Major tech stocks saw mixed results, with Microsoft up 0.23% and Nvidia down 0.38%. Berkshire Hathaway significantly increased its Alibaba holdings by 21 times while reducing its Nvidia stake [4][10] Focus on Companies - UnitedHealth Group's stock dropped by 10.93% amid an investigation by the US Department of Justice into its billing practices, which the company claims it was unaware of [5][6] - Walmart reported Q1 revenue of $165.6 billion, slightly below expectations, but adjusted EPS exceeded forecasts at $0.61. The company anticipates a 3.5% to 4.5% increase in net sales for Q2 [8] - Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 report revealed significant sell-offs in bank stocks, maintaining its position in Apple, while increasing stakes in other sectors like beverages and oil [9] Trade and Tariff Developments - Japan is seeking to hold a third round of trade negotiations with the US next week, while the EU and US are accelerating trade talks, aiming for greater tariff reductions than those with the UK [7] - Following recent tariff adjustments, container shipping rates from China to the US have surged, with bookings increasing by nearly 300% [12][13]

美联储巴尔：美国经济基础稳固，通胀率有望降至2%，但贸易政策的不确定性影响了前景展望。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review [1] - Key Point 2: France's ILO unemployment rate for Q1 will be released at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for March will be published at 17:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The U.S. will report the annualized number of new housing starts for April at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The total number of building permits in the U.S. for April will also be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. import price index month-on-month for April will be reported at 20:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: The preliminary one-year inflation expectations for May in the U.S. will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 2: The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for May will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the U.S. for the week ending May 16 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

鲍威尔：需要重新考虑就业不足和平均通胀率的措辞 金十数据5月15日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，他们认为重新考虑"就业不足"的措辞是合适的，这样美 联储就不会将低失业率本身视为通胀风险的信号。鲍威尔表示，"在上周的会议上，我们对平均通胀目 标也有类似的看法。我们将确保我们的新共识声明在广泛的经济环境和发展中是强有力的。"他的言论 表明，美联储可能会对一项策略进行大规模修改，该策略在一开始就被视为美联储的重大转变，即愿意 承担更多风险，以促进就业市场走强，并愿意在经历了一段时间的疲软后容忍更高的通胀。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials agree on the need to reconsider the strategic language surrounding labor market slack and average inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its approach to employment and inflation metrics, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy strategy [1]

| 11/11/2 ■投前货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月15日 | | 贵金属 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续回调。证期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的押注,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢 价。国际金价处于调整过程中,关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。今晚关注美国PPI、零售销售和周废初清 矢业金人数。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 4月GPI数据让市场更加固惑 -- 整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%,创下四年来的最低水平,主要得益于食品价格 的下跌。然而,剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率却依然高达2.8%,远超美联储2%的目标。这种"表面降温、内 部火热"的局 ...

周四(5月15日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然出现暴跌行情，金价目前报3149.79美元/盎司，跌幅0.84%，最 高上探3192.49美元/盎司，最低触及3148.90美元/盎司。 【黄金技术前景】 从技术角度来看，黄金日线图显示，金价进一步跌破目前持平的20日简单移动平均线(SMA)，而技术指 标恢复在负面水平内的下滑，符合金价将出现又一波跌势的观点。 在短期内，根据4小时走势图，黄金前景看跌。金价交投在其所有移动平均线下方，20周期SMA将跌破 200周期SMA，后者位于3232美元/盎司，假如金价走势复苏，该位将构成重要阻力。最后，技术指标缺 乏方向性强度，但保持在负值水平，反映出缺乏买入兴趣。 【要闻速递】 美联储最近又一次选择了"按兵不动"，将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间。这已经是今年第三次保持利 率不变，显然，美联储正在小心翼翼地评估特朗普政府关税政策可能带来的经济冲击。芝加哥联储主席 古尔斯比直言，现在的经济数据充满了"噪音"，美联储就像在迷雾中摸索，试图找到那条真正的主线。 最新公布的4月CPI数据让市场更加困惑——整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%，创下四年来的最低水平，主 要得益于食品价格 ...

美联储戴利：经济稳健增长，劳动力市场稳健，通胀率下降，这正是我们希望达到的目标。目前的货币 政策能够应对经济中的各种变化，耐心是当下的关键词。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that India's manufacturing inflation in April increased by 2.62% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale food price index in April rose by 2.55% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale price index inflation rate for April was recorded at 0.85%, which was below market expectations of 1.76% [1]