Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies, particularly regarding tariffs, has significantly increased recently according to the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the implications of U.S. policy changes on the global economy [1] - Increased uncertainty may affect Japan's economic outlook and trade relationships [1]

美国总统特朗普：日本方面今天会来美国就关税问题进行谈判，我将参加与日本的会谈，美国财政部长 和商务部长也将出席此次会议，希望能够找到解决方案。军事支援成本与贸易公平是会谈内容之一。 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

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供应方面，部分前期检修的炼厂有开工计划，且部分企业装置负荷调整，因此直馏和加氢石脑油供应均 有增加，商品量有增长预期，对石脑油价格整体影响偏空。 需求方面，炼厂对直馏石脑油刚需维持在稳定水平，未来部分炼厂将进入装置检修期，将暂停直馏石脑 油外采，但因需求量较小，因此对市场价格影响力度有限，且在价格下跌过程中，主营单位或有部分外 采订单，对直馏石脑油价格有支撑但预计利多有限。 汽油市场或继续维持偏弱震荡的局面，组分原料市场交投难有好转，加氢石脑油需求或维持在平稳局 面。 综合来看，短期内石脑油市场依旧缺乏利多支撑，价格有继续下跌的可能，但下跌幅度有限。 清明假期以来，原油价格连续宽幅下跌抑制石脑油市场，但石脑油价格跌幅远不及原油价格。未来，原 油消息面以及石脑油供需面对价格支撑力度不足，预计石脑油价格仍有下跌空间，但幅度收窄。 自清明假期以来，原油价格连续下跌抑制山东地区油品市场成交气氛。山东地炼油品价格虽有下跌但整 体跌幅可控。其中，石脑油价格呈现抵抗式下跌行情，周内跌幅仅在150元／吨左右，直馏石脑油均值 跌至7150元／吨水平，加氢石脑油均值跌至7550元／吨水平。 近期原油价格走势出现异动，因此对石脑油 ...

国际白银在上周跌至28.2筑底后，山海就明确可以等待29.5抄底做多，虽然上周白银上周的很慢，但最终尾盘还是走出了上周，当前最 高在32.3附近。本周白银的基本方向还是看涨，预计目标在34附近，交易方式还是等待回落做多，中期强势支撑在31.5，以短线来看， 可以回落到此点位继续做多看涨，如果调整力度不大，就继续持有底仓多看看涨到目标即可。周内白银有可能见顶出现调整回落空 间，注意时间节奏放在周三，周四变盘时机。 山海：黄金在绝对趋势中上涨，交易节奏至关重要！ 上周市场接近疯狂状态，不管是国际黄金还是国内黄金连续几个交易日都出现暴涨空间，其中，国际黄金在连续上周中，刷新高点至 3245，国内黄金最高在765，虽然这种上涨非常明显，山海也明确看涨不猜顶，但是要做出有效的趋势交易其实较难，多次买入不要找 对节奏，因此，上周黄金只能激进交易才能走出利润，沪金，融通金在710开始提示大家抄底，看涨到750，基本抓到了单周最大的利 润空间。本周保持多头趋势看法，维持回落做多的策略不变，在强势中继续做趋势利润。白银上周28.2后筑底，最高上周至32.3附近， 上周力度非常大，山海抄底白银抓住了29.5的多单，本周还是保持多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates a comprehensive understanding of tariff issues, suggesting that the central bank is closely monitoring the economic implications of trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is actively assessing the impact of tariffs on the economy, highlighting the importance of trade policy in economic decision-making [1] - Williams emphasizes the need for a broad understanding of tariff-related challenges, which could influence monetary policy [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the rebar industry chain dated April 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,139.00 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; RB main contract position is 1,686,421 lots, down 749 lots; RB contract top 20 net position is -46,971 lots, up 50,874 lots; RB2505 - RB2510 contract spread is -78, down 3; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report is 233,880 tons, up 2,692 tons; HC2505 - RB2505 contract spread is 116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM is 3,450.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,210.00 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; RB main contract basis is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) is 3,261.54 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines are 760.00 yuan/wet ton, up 26 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 10mm scrap steel (tax - excluded) is 2,145.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory is 14,464.47 million tons, down 52.87 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 66.48 million tons, down 3.26 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 672.85 million tons, up 4.69 million tons; Tangshan billet inventory is 91.46 million tons, down 4.86 million tons [2] Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.15%, up 1.02 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.66%, up 0.56 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar output is 232.37 million tons, up 3.72 million tons; rebar apparent demand is 252.68 million tons, up 2.99 million tons; sample steel mill rebar inventory is 214.66 million tons, up 7.54 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory is 563.10 million tons, down 27.85 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 71.88%, unchanged; domestic crude steel output is 7,597 million tons, down 243 million tons; China's rebar monthly output is 1,675 million tons, down 61 million tons; steel net export volume is 749.00 million tons, down 95.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.80, up 0.45; fixed - asset investment completion cumulative year - on - year is 3.20%, down 0.90 percentage points; real estate development investment cumulative year - on - year is - 10.60%, down 0.80 percentage points; infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year is 4.40%, down 1.20 percentage points; housing new construction area cumulative year - on - year is - 29.60%, unchanged; housing construction area cumulative year - on - year is - 9.10%, unchanged; commercial housing unsold area is 43,174.00 million square meters, up 4,086.00 million square meters; 100 - city land transaction area is 4,570.76 million square meters, down 469.74 million square meters [2] Group 3: Industry News - On April 8, the US government raised the "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods from 34% to 84%, and China raised the additional tariff on US goods from 34% to 84% starting from April 10, 12:01 [2] - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said Trump's tariffs would lead to the collapse of the monetary system, political pattern, and world order, and the era of US single - pole dominance is over [2] Group 4: Core View - On April 10, the rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, on April 9 (US time), Trump authorized a 90 - day tariff suspension for some countries, lowering tariffs to 10%, boosting the market. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly output increased by 3.72 million tons, inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and apparent demand remained around 2.5 million tons. Some coking enterprises proposed a first - round coke price increase, but steel mills haven't responded. Overall, tariff issues will continue to affect the market and investor sentiment, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 4 - hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [2]

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔：大约有50个国家正在就关税问题与我们展开对话。 ...

韩国代理总统：显然希望与美国总统特朗普就关税问题进行谈判。 ...