拜耳首席执行官：（关于关税问题）我们目前没有立即计划重新审视我们全球平衡的制造布局。 ...

沙特阿美高管：如果关税问题得到解决，市场将会增加额外的需求。 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester weekly report from Zhengxin Futures, dated May 12, 2025, focusing on the PTA and MEG markets [2] - It analyzes the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects of the polyester industry chain and provides investment strategies and key points to watch [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - PTA is expected to have a warm and oscillating trend in the short - term due to strong raw material PX performance and continuous de - stocking, despite some relief in the tight supply - demand pattern [6] - MEG is likely to continue its rebound in the short - term as the supply - demand pattern is favorable with expected declines in both domestic production and imports and high polyester开工率 [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Upstream Industry Analysis - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell due to OPEC+ increasing production and positive signals from US - Iran negotiations. PX had a narrow - range repair due to poor cost support, continuous de - stocking of downstream PTA, low processing fees, and declining capacity utilization. As of May 9, Asian PX closed at $786/ton CFR China, up $40/ton from April 30 [18] - **PX开工率**: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 81.94%, a 4.5% increase from last week. Some devices had restarts, but there were also load - reducing situations such as catalyst replacement and planned maintenance [21] - **PX Processing Fees**: As of May 9, the PX - naphtha price difference was $216.7/ton, up $34.42/ton from April 30. Low previous processing fees and non - planned load reduction promoted the repair of processing fees [23] 4.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the holiday, PTA opened slightly lower, then the international oil price rebounded, and with supply reduction from device maintenance and a warming commodity sentiment, the PTA price center strengthened. As of May 9, the PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 155 [26] - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 74.48%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week. In May, there are more planned device maintenance and some planned restarts, with an expected decline in capacity utilization [30] - **Supply - Demand Balance and Processing Fees**: Multiple device maintenance led to supply reduction and continuous de - stocking of the balance sheet, causing a significant increase in PTA processing fees. Next week, with device restarts, processing fees are expected to decline slightly [33] - **Inventory Expectation**: In May, with many PTA device maintenance plans and a co - existence of maintenance and restart in the polyester end, the supply - demand will continue the de - stocking pattern [34][36] 4.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil during the holiday, MEG opened lower after the holiday. With the improvement of the macro - situation, the market rebounded from the low level and fluctuated around 4,300 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the closing price in Zhangjiagang was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,390 yuan/ton [39] - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total domestic MEG capacity utilization rate this week was 63.46%, a 0.47% increase from the previous week. There are multiple device maintenance and new device start - up plans in May, with most restarts concentrated around the end of the month [42] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 69.2 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons from May 6. The arrival was okay, but the shipment was dull, leading to a slight increase in inventory [47] - **Production Profits**: Due to the slight increase in the MEG price and different declines in raw material prices, the sample profits of all MEG production processes increased. As of May 9, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $105.8/ton, up $19.55/ton from last week; the coal - based profit was - 203.58 yuan/ton, up 43.32 yuan/ton from last week [50] 4.4 Downstream Demand Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.49%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week. Although some devices increased their loads, the overall production and capacity utilization declined slightly due to previous maintenance [53] - **Polyester Production**: In May, with a co - existence of maintenance and restart and a higher restart capacity than the maintenance capacity, the monthly polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56] - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 92%, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week; that of polyester staple fiber was 86.94%, a 0.26% increase; that of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.75%, a 2.99% decrease [59] - **Polyester Product Inventory**: After the holiday, the market trading was average, and the finished - product inventory of polyester filament factories gradually accumulated [60] - **Polyester Cash Flow**: With the expected increase in the cost side, the polyester cash flow may be further compressed, with local cash flow repair for some products and compression for DTY [63] - **Weaving Industry**: As of May 8, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.82%, a 5.73% increase from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 10.17 days, an increase of 0.48 days from last week. However, foreign trade orders were sporadic, and there is a risk of a decline in the starting rate in the future [67] 4.5 Polyester Industry Chain Fundamental Summary - **Cost Side**: International oil prices fell, and PX had a narrow - range repair due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and low processing fees [69] - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increased slightly [69] - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving starting rate increased, but the order situation was not optimistic [69] - **Inventory**: PTA maintained a tight supply - demand balance, and MEG port inventory increased slightly [69]

周度报告-黄金 贸易问题短期缓和，黄金冲高回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：看跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金反弹 2.6%至 3325 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通 胀预期 2.31%，实际利率微升至 2.06%，美元指数涨 0.31%至 100.3， 标普 500 指数跌 0.47%，离岸人民币小跌，沪金维持较高溢价。 贵 金 属 金价波动增加，关税问题仍然是市场交易核心所在，特朗普表示将 对美国以外生产的电影加征 100%关税，叠加地缘军事冲突升温，国 内资金节后抄底增加，推动黄金再度突破 3400 美元/盎司。但随后 美联储 5 月利率会议按兵不动表态偏鹰，以及英国和美国达成贸 易协议，黄金高位回落，日内波动幅度加大。中美高层瑞士举行 会谈，此前的关税无法正常贸易，因而双方均有降低关税到能贸 易的水平的意愿，关税问题边际上存在改善空间，短期对黄金不 利，但中长期维度贸易不会 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba initially aimed to reach an agreement with the U.S. on tariffs by June, but has now shifted the target to July [1] - Following the second round of Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations, Ishiba expressed to his aides that there is no need to rush into an agreement with the U.S. [1] - The Japanese government is taking a cautious approach in assessing changes in the U.S. stance due to strong domestic backlash against President Trump's high tariff measures [1] Group 2 - Ishiba is planning to meet with Trump around July 8, coinciding with the end of the tariff grace period set by the U.S. [3] - Ishiba stated that while the recent agreement between the U.S. and U.K. on a 10% tariff serves as a model, Japan continues to demand the cancellation of tariffs [3] - During the second round of negotiations, Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari expressed regret over the U.S. tariff measures and urged the U.S. to reconsider [3]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/9 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 59.91 | 58.07 | 3.17% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 62.84 | 61.12 | 2.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 554.50 | 562.00 | -1.33% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/7 | 美元/吨 | 657.50 | 640.50 | 2.65% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 778.00 | 767.67 | 1.35% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/8 | 元/吨 | 4546.00 | ...

在美方对华发动新一轮关税战之后，中国给出的态度非常明确，那就是"谈，大门敞开！打，奉陪到底"！ 美国总统日前宣称，在中美达成协议之前，美方不会降低对华关税。不过，下一秒他就自己打自己的脸。据和 讯网报道，美国财长贝森特日前威胁称: 白宫正在考虑对从中国进口的汽车座椅、婴儿车、婴儿床和其他儿童出 行必需品免征145%的关税。尽管贝森特还说，在对华关税问题上，美方"更倾向于让贸易惩罚更广泛、更简 单"。但实际上就是关税问题上扛不住了，不得不向中方服软。 日前，中美两国贸易代表在瑞士举行谈判，就中美之间的贸易和关税等问题进行沟通。显然，美方在这敏感时 刻"考虑"免除上述商品近期加征的高额关税，就是在给中美贸易代表会谈创造合适的政治氛围。也就是说，中 美还没有达成任何协议，美国就主动做出让步，这不是认输又是什么呢？ 不过，中方虽说没有对美方关闭对话大门，但也绝不可能会主动拨通白宫的电话，甚至还前所未有地多次戳穿 美方有关"中方主动寻求接触"的谎言，让"大统领"在这场大国博弈中骑虎难下。因此，当贝森特面对记者有 关"白宫是否主动给中方打电话"的提问时，支支吾吾连话都说不清楚。为此，中方干脆帮他们掀开底牌，告诉 全世界中 ...

核心要点 1. 投资策略调整：因估值因素，去年四季度开始减持超配股票与信贷，今年关税问题升温 后进一步降低风险。当前股票满仓但不超配，投资注重全球布局，看好金融板块，对新兴市 场持谨慎开放态度。 2. 经济形势判断：虽关税致不确定性增加，担忧滞胀和衰退，但经济衰退不是大概率事件。 美国经济优势犹存，科技和金融是经济韧性的关键支撑；欧洲市场今年表现好，是估值重新 定价，未来发展取决于财政等政策实施效果。 3. 科技行业展望：科技股曾因盈利、创新和资本支出表现好，估值受认可。目前资本支出 受关税影响，但企业核心增长因素仍在，只是发展节奏或因经济环境调整。 4. 新兴市场机遇：今年新兴市场因美国进口前置受益，表现优于美国，但长期看仍落后。 新兴市场债务是风险分散工具，收益率有吸引力，投资需谨慎选择，关注特定国家和企业机 会。 5. 美联储政策影响：美联储目前维持利率不变，下半年政策走向受关税、通胀和就业等因 素影响。市场期望降息，若其他央行降息而美联储维持，利差变化会影响资金流动和市场走 势。 6. 美元走势分析：美元近期承压，过去十年助力投资，其作为储备货币地位稳固，虽有波 动但难以被替代。近期走势受外资流动影响 ...

特朗普本想趁火打劫韩国，赚取一波红利给美国续命，如今却不得不面临最坏的情况。 4月28日，韩国贸易、工业和能源部副部长朴成泽明确表示，在6月3日总统补选前，韩国与美国达成贸易协议，"在理论上是不可能的"。 朴成泽的这一表态，直接浇灭了美国在7月8日关税暂停到期前完成谈判的期待。 特朗普上台100天，美国就出现了"债股汇"三杀，经济衰退已经成为了一个极大概率事件。 为了打好太极，韩国代总统韩德洙已经做了万全准备。韩国方面4月28日证实，韩德洙极可能在5月1日到3日期间宣布辞职，并参加总统竞选。其竞选团队已 开始组建，部分幕僚提前离职做准备。 若参选，他将面临共同民主党候选人李在明的强劲挑战，李在明的民调支持率已经超过了50%。再加上尹锡悦、金建希等人正在遭遇多项调查，韩德洙所在 的国民力量党，赢得本届韩国总统大选的概率相当渺茫。 就是在这种情况下，国民力量党还推出了至少七八名竞选者，这使得韩德洙更难进一步集中选票。 要知道，韩德洙本人也曾因"内乱罪"指控，被国会弹劾，后遭宪法法院驳回。可以说，韩德洙赢得总统大选的概率并不大，他这样做的目的，可能就是让韩 国政府找到办法，拒绝向美国政府大幅出让经济利益。 需要注意 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current market for gold is still in a transitional phase, with potential for further price increases due to unresolved tariff issues and a "stagflation-like" environment [1][3][7] - The analysis indicates that the gold market has not yet reached a "crowded" trading zone, suggesting there is still room for additional capital inflow [17] - The article emphasizes a "buy-and-hold" strategy as more advantageous in the current market conditions, with a higher success rate for short-term trading strategies based on volume and price [18] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the article outlines four phases of gold price behavior during financial crises, indicating that the current market is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase [3][7] - The article highlights that the market's pricing of inflation and growth is not fully accounting for the potential "inflation" effects, which could further support gold prices [7] - The article provides a detailed table summarizing the attitudes of major economies towards U.S. tariff issues, indicating varying degrees of response and potential impacts on global trade [8] Group 3 - The article notes that the current gold trading volume is above the average line, but still below historical "most crowded" levels, indicating potential for further accumulation [17] - The analysis of trading strategies shows that the 5-day and 20-day moving average strategies have the highest success rates, while longer-term strategies may reduce effectiveness [18][28] - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations and tariff negotiations, will continue to influence gold prices [7][29]