Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on October 29 suggest that a December interest rate cut is not guaranteed, impacting risk assets [1] Group 1 - Risk assets experienced pressure following Powell's remarks [1]

Core Insights - The recent economic narrative has been significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, which is further complicated by the ongoing government shutdown and the absence of new economic data [1] - There has been a third consecutive decline in consumer confidence, indicating a potential weakening in consumer sentiment [1] - U.S. home prices are experiencing a continued slowdown, reflecting broader trends in the housing market [1]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,013.70 per ounce on Tuesday, up 0.3% from Monday’s close of $4,000.30. The price of gold was down in early trading. A stronger dollar and an uncertain interest-rate outlook are factors in the decline. The U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) moved above 100 after dipping as low as 96.22 on Sept. 17. Year-to-date, the greenback is still down 7.7%. On the interest-rate front, CME FedWatch calculates a 71.1% probability the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point in December. One we ...

Inflation in Switzerland fell unexpectedly in October, government data showed on Monday, although not enough to make the central bank consider interest rate cuts, analysts said. ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and researching foreign exchange futures, aiming to develop the Renminbi derivatives market and promote its trading with neighboring and Belt and Road countries [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's meeting [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, indicating no urgent need for policy adjustments as inflation has reached its target [2] - The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations of gradual inflation increases [2] - The Bank of Canada has also reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, continuing its trend of rate cuts [2] Market Observations - Nomura Securities has canceled its expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following the Fed's recent rate decision and Powell's press conference [4] - The market currently estimates a 72% probability of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from approximately 91% prior to the Fed's decision [5] - Analysts from Barclays and other institutions warn that traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde has signaled that there will be no rate cuts in the coming months, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining current rates [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing internal dissent regarding its decision to cut interest rates, with some officials arguing that it is too early to ease measures against inflation [2][5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining low inflation and high employment is creating conflicting pressures, complicating its decision-making process [3][5][6] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - Three Federal Reserve officials expressed disagreement with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point [2][6] - Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates steady but was outvoted [2][3] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Inflation has been above the Fed's target of 2% for over four years, with tariffs exacerbating the situation, which would typically prompt rate hikes [4][6] - Conversely, trade wars initiated by President Trump have created uncertainty, hindering job growth and prompting the Fed to lower rates to support employment [4][6] Implications for Economic Policy - The divisions within the FOMC are making interest rate movements less predictable, as members disagree on which issue—inflation or employment—should take precedence [5][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the "strongly differing views" among FOMC participants during the recent policy meeting [5]

Market Performance - On October 30, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.23%, the S&P 500 down by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 1.57% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced significant losses, with Meta reporting its largest single-day drop in three years [1][3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.88%, indicating a broader decline in Chinese concept stocks [1][4] Company-Specific Developments - Meta's third-quarter revenue was $51.242 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but net profit plummeted by 83% to $2.709 billion [3] - Tesla's stock dropped by 4.64% amid ongoing challenges with its autonomous taxi service rollout in Arizona and Nevada [3] - Amazon's stock surged over 12% in after-hours trading following a strong third-quarter report, with total revenue of $180.169 billion (up 13%) and net profit of $21.187 billion (up 38%) [3] - Apple's after-hours stock rose over 2% after reporting third-quarter revenue of $102.47 billion (up 7.9%) and net profit of $27.47 billion (up 86.4%), despite a 3.6% decline in revenue from Greater China [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with notable declines including Xiaoma Zhixing down over 6%, and several others like Century Internet and Bilibili down over 5% [4] - New Oriental saw a rise of 3.91%, while other companies like Atour and Yikaitong also experienced gains [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 30, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.23%, the S&P 500 down by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 1.57% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced significant losses, with Meta reporting its largest single-day drop in three years [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.88%, indicating a broader decline in Chinese concept stocks [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Meta's third-quarter revenue was $51.242 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but its net profit plummeted by 83% to $2.709 billion [2] - Tesla's stock dropped by 4.64% amid ongoing challenges with its autonomous taxi service rollout [2] - Amazon's stock surged over 12% in after-hours trading following a strong third-quarter report, with total revenue of $180.169 billion (up 13%) and net profit of $21.187 billion (up 38%) [2] - Apple's after-hours stock rose over 2%, reporting third-quarter revenue of $102.47 billion (up 7.9%) and net profit of $27.47 billion (up 86.4%), although revenue in Greater China fell by 3.6% [2] Group 3: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw widespread declines among Chinese stocks, with notable drops including Pinduoduo and JD.com [3] - Specific stocks like Xiaoma Zhixing and Century Internet fell over 6% and 5%, respectively, while New Oriental saw a gain of 3.91% [3] Group 4: Economic Policy - The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate the comprehensive tariff policy implemented by former President Trump, which included tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on various countries [4] - The resolution still requires approval from the House of Representatives, where previous attempts to overturn tariffs have faced opposition [4] Group 5: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year [5] - Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Fed for being "stuck in the past" and called for comprehensive reforms [5] - Market predictions indicate a 74.7% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December [5]

Market Overview - On October 30, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.23%, the S&P 500 down by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 1.57% [1]. Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Meta reporting its largest single-day drop in three years, falling over 11% and reaching a new low since June. The company's Q3 revenue was $51.242 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but net profit plummeted by 83% to $2.709 billion [4]. - Other tech stocks also faced losses: Tesla dropped 4.64% amid challenges in its autonomous taxi service, Amazon fell over 3%, Microsoft down by over 2%, Nvidia decreased by 2%, and Netflix dropped over 1%. In contrast, Google rose by 2.45%, and Apple saw a slight increase [4]. Earnings Reports - Following the market close, several companies reported earnings that led to after-hours gains. Amazon's stock surged over 12% after reporting Q3 revenue of $180.169 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $21.187 billion, up 38%. AWS cloud revenue grew by 20%, exceeding expectations [4]. - Apple also saw an after-hours increase of over 2%, with Q3 revenue of $102.47 billion, a 7.9% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $27.47 billion, up 86.4%. However, revenue from Greater China unexpectedly declined by 3.6% [4]. Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the US generally fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down by 1.88%. Notable declines included Xiaoma Zhixing down over 6%, Century Internet and Bilibili down over 5%, and several others including Baidu and Alibaba down over 3% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dampened expectations for a holiday rate cut, indicating that a December reduction is uncertain due to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% as of October 29, but Powell emphasized that certainty regarding future cuts is lacking [2][5]. - Powell highlighted the ongoing government shutdown as a factor that hampers the Fed's access to crucial economic data, contributing to uncertainty in policy decisions [2][3]. Labor Market and Inflation - Powell noted signs of a cooling labor market and persistent inflation, which currently stands at 3%, above the Fed's target of 2% [6]. - He described the current situation as a "risk management" scenario, where both inflation and labor market conditions present challenges [6]. Committee Dynamics - There are strong disagreements among Federal Reserve voting members regarding the path forward, with some advocating for a cautious approach to assess potential risks to the labor market [4]. - Powell stated that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed, reflecting the divided views within the committee [4]. Market Reactions - Futures markets, which previously anticipated a rate cut, shifted their expectations following Powell's comments, now predicting that the Fed will maintain current rates [7]. - Some economists have adjusted their expectations for a rate cut at the end of the year, citing a less threatening inflation outlook due to various mitigating factors [8]. Future Projections - Despite a tempered outlook, some economists still expect a December rate cut, with a belief that additional cuts may be necessary next year to support growth [9].