马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率下调25基点至2.75%，符合预期。 ...

马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率下调25个基点至2.75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations and indicating potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease as anticipated [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Decision - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.25% [1] - This decision is consistent with a Reuters survey where 19 out of 27 analysts expected the central bank to hold rates steady [1] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Since August of the previous year, the Reserve Bank has reduced interest rates by 225 basis points [1] - Current inflation stands at 2.5%, with concerns regarding trade tensions potentially exacerbating price pressures [1] - The central bank is adopting a cautious approach in light of these economic factors [1]

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on July 4, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 772.22 CNY per gram, down 0.43%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 8883 CNY per kilogram, down 0.38% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3321.50 USD per ounce, down 0.44%, and COMEX silver at 36.80 USD per ounce, down 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for July 4 were 775.38 CNY for Shanghai gold and 8919.00 CNY for Shanghai silver, with respective highs of 777.20 CNY and 8953.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations focus on 18 countries contributing to 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, with strategies aimed at applying maximum pressure [3] - Current CME "FedWatch" data shows a 95.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Last week, COMEX gold prices increased by 1.84% to 3346.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 1.10% to 777.06 CNY per gram [4]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3342.16, with a slight increase of 0.47% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The recent daily candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation, suggesting a potential short-term correction after a three-day bullish trend, with market focus on the closing price today [2] - The 4-hour analysis indicates gold is consolidating between $3365 and $3311, with Bollinger Bands tightening, and the absence of U.S. market activity today may lead to a range-bound movement [3] Group 2 - The market is signaling a potential interest rate cut, as indicated by the two-year U.S. Treasury yield being perceived as too high, with commentary suggesting that the current economic conditions may warrant a reassessment of rates [2] - The focus on the mid-band level of $3350 is crucial for determining future bullish momentum, with a closing above this level suggesting further upward movement [2] - Support levels are identified at $3322-$3311, while resistance is noted at $3350-$3360, guiding short-term trading strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar undermining its status as the global reserve currency, emphasizing that the strength of the dollar is not directly linked to its price [1][2] Group 1: Dollar's Status and Policy - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973, amid concerns over Trump's policies, including tariffs and diplomatic stances [1] - Bessent asserts that the Trump administration is taking long-term measures to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1] - He questions the notion that the current environment presents an opportunity for reduced reliance on the dollar, emphasizing that a reserve currency must allow for free trading [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Bessent expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, indicating that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests the benchmark rate is too high [2] - The current target for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - He notes that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be more significant [2] Group 3: Debt Strategy and Management - Bessent discusses the debt management strategy, indicating that the Treasury will consider the high two-year yield when making decisions about debt repayment [4] - He refrains from commenting on predictions regarding the reduction of the federal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, stating that long-term forecasts are difficult [4] - The next quarterly refinancing meeting is scheduled for July 30, where any changes in debt strategy will be announced [4]

6月非农数据好于预期提振美元反弹，7月3日，国际金价高位回落，收盘跌近1%。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘下跌32.7美元，收于每盎司 3336美元，跌幅为0.97%。 强劲的非农数据一扫前一日ADP就业数据的阴霾，显示美国劳动市场依然具韧性，同时也令交易员削减 了对美联储可能于7月降息的押注。数据公布后，金价自日内高点跳水超1%。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨25美分，报每盎司37.040美元，涨幅为0.68%。 3日CME"美联储观察"工具最新数据显示，市场认为美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，此前一日 这一概率仅为74.7%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 在此背景下，纽约股市三大股指3日集体走高，标普500、纳斯达克指数均创下收盘新高。资本市场的强 劲表现，削弱了黄金的吸引力。而美元指数也从近期低位反弹，同样抑制了金价的上涨动能。 不过，有分析人士也表示，尽管短期金价面临回调压力，但美国即将生效的"大而美"税收和支出法案， 可能导致美国债务继 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] - Becerra emphasizes that the current actual interest rates are very high when adjusted for inflation, and he suggests that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be larger [1] - The futures market indicates that traders expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in the September meeting, while no changes are anticipated in July [1] Group 2 - Becerra refrains from commenting on calls for Fed Chair Powell's resignation but suggests that the Fed should manage its spending like other agencies [2] - He hints at the possibility of Powell leaving the Fed after his term ends in May 2026, despite Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] - Becerra notes a divergence in expectations among Fed policymakers based on their appointing authority, indicating a split between Trump-appointed officials and others [2] Group 3 - Becerra highlights that the upcoming legislation includes an increase in the federal debt ceiling, which he believes will support the government until 2027 [3] - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to meet federal payment obligations without exceeding the debt limit, and plans to increase short-term Treasury sales once the legislation is signed [3] - He mentions that the debt management process is orderly, but acknowledges that the two-year Treasury yield will be considered in their strategies [3] Group 4 - Becerra states that decisions regarding debt maturity arrangements will be made in the coming months, with the next quarterly refinancing announcement expected on July 30 [4] - He avoids commenting on the White House economic advisor's claim that Trump policies will reduce the fiscal deficit by $11 trillion over the next decade, citing the difficulty of predicting long-term borrowing scenarios [4]

Core Viewpoint - A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% on July 9, with a forecasted reduction to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Out of 27 economists surveyed, 19 believe the interest rate will remain at 3.25% [1] - Among 22 economists, 16 anticipate a decrease in the interest rate to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] - The median forecast for the year-end interest rate is 3.00%, an increase from the previous survey's prediction of 2.75% [1]