2025.12.04 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 截至12月3日，根据 Kalshi 预测市场数据，哈塞特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 鲍威尔的决定 如果哈塞特成为美联储新任主席，他将承担起特朗普改组美联储的重任。 除了鲍威尔以外，目前美联储理事会三名成员由前总统拜登任命，剩余三名则由特朗普任命。其中最新 任命的成员是米兰（Stephen Miran）。若鲍威尔在领导任期结束后未辞去理事职务，或特朗普未能成 功罢免拜登任命的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook），那么米兰将不得不辞职，为新美联储主席候选人腾 出职位。 据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发出 重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大 热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势走向不确 定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 据知情人士透露，特朗普团队已告知候选人，原定于周三与副总统万斯（JD Vance）的面试已取消，且 未说明决策理由。 特朗普周二表示，他 ...

2025.12. 04 据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发 出重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席 的最大热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势 走向不确定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 据知情人士透露，特朗普团队已告知候选人，原定于周三与副总统万斯（JD Vance）的面试已取 消，且未说明决策理由。 特朗普周二表示，他将在明年初宣布接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。"我想，一位潜在的美联储 主席今天也在场。我可以这么说吗？是'潜在'的。我能告诉你的是，他是一位受人尊敬的人。"特朗 普在白宫活动中如是说道。 63岁的哈塞特曾在特朗普第一任期内担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，现在是政府核心经济顾问。他 通过不定期在CNBC、福克斯新闻等频道露面，支持特朗普大规模征收进口关税的政策，并赞同其降 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 低利率的呼吁。此外，哈塞特的办公室位于白宫西翼，这意味着他能直接接触到特朗普，并且在贸 易、经济议题以及 ...

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Thursday, after Wall Street gained on the latest jobs data that raised hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next week.Payroll processor ADP reported that private companies cut 32,000 workers in November, compared with 47,000 additions in October, and well below the 40,000 increase expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a cut when the Federal Reserve meets on Dec. 9-10, significantly higher than rate-cut bets just a c ...

据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发出 重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大 热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势走向不确 定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 截至12月3日，根据 Kalshi 预测市场数据，哈塞特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 鲍威尔的决定 如果哈塞特成为美联储新任主席，他将承担起特朗普改组美联储的重任。 除了鲍威尔以外，目前美联储理事会三名成员由前总统拜登任命，剩余三名则由特朗普任命。其中最新 任命的成员是米兰（Stephen Miran）。若鲍威尔在领导任期结束后未辞去理事职务，或特朗普未能成 功罢免拜登任命的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook），那么米兰将不得不辞职，为新美联储主席候选人腾 出职位。 前美联储理事沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）是哈塞特角逐美联储主席职位的主要竞争对手，他曾公开批评美 联储当前的架构体系。即便未能出任主席，市场观察人士仍预计他有望加入美联储理事会，助力推动美 联储在经济增长与通胀调控思路上 ...

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished with back-to-back gains on Wednesday, with investors using November's unexpectedly weak private-sector hiring report to solidify expectations for a quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain a pause on interest rate cuts due to high growth rates and low inflation, despite some expectations for a rate cut [1][2][9] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - There is a general expectation among economists for a rate cut, but the RBI's recent actions and statements suggest a cautious approach [2][6] - The RBI has already implemented 100 basis points of rate cuts since the beginning of the financial year, making further cuts challenging given the current growth rate of 8% [2][9] - A potential 25 basis points rate cut could hinder the transmission of monetary policy, as market behavior may react negatively to such a move [3][4] Group 2: Focus on Liquidity - The emphasis should be on liquidity injection rather than further rate reductions, as liquidity has significantly decreased due to RBI interventions in the foreign exchange market [5][8] - The RBI's forward-looking stance indicates that inflation is expected to approach 4% by June of the next fiscal year, suggesting that rates may remain on hold for the time being [9]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing short-term "stagflation," with GDP growth expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.7% in 2025, and inflation pressures may rebound, with PCE inflation projected to rise to 2.8% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4 of 2025 [2][24] - The real estate market continues to show signs of stagnation, with high interest rates leading to historically low purchasing power and sales, while many homeowners are reluctant to move due to locked-in low mortgage rates, resulting in tight inventory [2][29] - Corporate earnings growth has been downgraded, particularly in industries sensitive to trade wars and economic cycles, such as industrials, energy, and materials [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice between September and December 2025, with a potential further two cuts in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3.25%-3.5% [4] - However, due to potential increased influence from the White House on the Federal Reserve, market inflation expectations remain unstable, and rising government debt may keep Treasury yields elevated [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment focus should be on sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, communication services, materials, and industrials [7] - Overall, the US stock market is in the late stages of a bull market, suitable for long-term dollar-cost averaging, with asset allocation recommendations to overweight commodities, standard allocation to stocks and cash, and underweight bonds, while being bearish on the US dollar and bullish on the euro, pound, and emerging market currencies [8] Group 4: China Economic Outlook - China's economy is entering a phase of weak recovery, with Q1 2025 GDP growth peaking at 5.4% but expected to decline to 4.7% in Q4 due to base effects and diminishing policy impacts [9] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a recovery in second-hand home sales in first-tier cities and gradual inventory digestion, leading to expectations of price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [10] - Deflationary pressures are bottoming out, and corporate profits are expected to rebound, supported by a continuation of accommodative policies, including a potential 10 basis point rate cut in Q4 2025 [11][12] Group 5: Currency and Asset Allocation - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, potentially reaching 7.1 by the end of 2025 and 7.05 by the end of 2026 [15] - Asset allocation recommendations for China include overweighting stocks, standard allocation to commodities and bonds, and underweighting cash [16] - The stock market is entering the second phase of a bull market, with accelerated sector rotation, and short-term optimism is noted for AI hardware and applications, internet, healthcare, chemicals, machinery, and consumer staples [17]

Euro zone consumers raised their near-term inflation expectations a touch but kept them unchanged further out, a European Central Bank survey showed, supporting bets that price growth remains around target and no more rate cuts are needed. ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - Australia's inflation rate surged to 3.8% as of October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecast of 3.2% for the fourth quarter, driven by rising electricity and food costs [2][26][29] - Major economists and the bond market are now betting on a potential interest rate hike in 2026, rather than a decrease, due to persistent inflation pressures [2][3] - The RBA's next meeting is scheduled for February, where it may consider raising the cash rate if inflation continues to accelerate [2][3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Two Australian tech entrepreneurs sold their software monitoring company, Chronosphere, for approximately AUD 3.3 billion (USD 2.1 billion) to US cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks [5] - The founders of Chronosphere previously worked at Uber and Microsoft before establishing their company, which has secured contracts with major corporations like Walmart and DoorDash [5] - CSL, a major pharmaceutical company, has faced significant stock declines following two profit warnings, leading to a shift in investment strategies among large funds [6][7] Group 3: Mining and Resource Sector - Theta Gold Mines is advancing its TGME gold mine project in South Africa, with significant milestones achieved in construction, aiming for production by the end of 2026 [10][11] - The project is expected to create over 500 jobs locally and enhance regional economic development through an AI-driven training system [10][11] - Theta Gold has raised approximately AUD 51.4 million (USD 33.9 million) to support the construction of the TGME project, which has a resource estimate of about 6 million ounces of gold [11][13] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - Goldman Sachs has identified 13 undervalued growth stocks in the Australian market, following a significant downturn in the "unprofitable growth" sector, which has seen a 24% drop since mid-October [14][15][19] - The performance of these high-growth stocks is closely tied to the outlook for artificial intelligence, with potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize [16][18] - Stocks such as Zip, Xero, and WiseTech have been highlighted as potential buying opportunities after experiencing substantial declines [19]

Wall Street has plenty to be thankful for right now, with investors hoping that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. ...