Wind数据显示，2025年7月4日午后，半导体产业链拉升显著。中微公司、北方华创涨超3%，寒武纪、 海光信息等跟涨。港股英诺赛科涨近6%，华虹半导体涨超4%，中芯国际跟涨。 消息面上，德国西门子股份公司收到美国政府的通知称，美国已取消对中国芯片设计软件的出口限制。 根据公司声明，这家德国供应商已恢复中国客户对其软件和技术的全面访问。 7月4日，有报道称，相关企业已接到美国商务部通知，恢复EDA软件、乙烷、飞机发动机等产品对华 出口。商务部答：中美伦敦经贸会谈后，双方于近期确认了落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日 内瓦经贸会谈成果的具体细节。目前，双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。中方正依法依规审批 符合条件的管制物项出口许可申请。美方也采取相应行动，取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施，有关情 况已向中方作了通报。 相关基金方面，Wind数据显示，截至2025年7月3日，泰康半导体量化选股股票发起式A(020476)自2024 年5月成立以来的收益率已达48.36%，近一年收益达46.24%，年化回报达到40.66%。 最新报告期数据显示，该基金前十大重仓股包括中芯国际、寒武纪、北方华创、中微公司、兆易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has regained upward momentum in July, supported by a low interest rate environment and a recovery in risk appetite, with expectations for incremental policies to potentially break the current sideways trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - After breaking through the March high, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations but continued to trend upwards, reaching recent highs [1]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with sectors like non-bank financials, media, and military industry showing signs of recovery [1]. - The upcoming policy window in July is expected to further support the market's gradual upward trajectory [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market is likely to see a thematic event-driven approach in July, with a high probability of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [2]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2]. 2. Robotics, with a trend towards domestic production and integration into daily life, particularly in humanoid and functional robots [2]. 3. Semiconductor localization, emphasizing semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. Military industry, with expectations for order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports across various sub-sectors [2]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continued upward trend, with electronic and other high-elasticity sectors leading the gains [3]. - Despite some fluctuations, the overall market confidence has strengthened, with over 3,200 stocks rising, indicating a positive earning effect [3]. - Leading sectors included electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like coal, transportation, and banking faced declines [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, highlighting structural opportunities in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and key components [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in June 2025, with increasing prices and improving demand across various segments, including smartphones, tablets, TWS headphones, wearable devices, smart home products, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [4][5]. - The report indicates that the overall semiconductor demand is expected to continue its recovery into July, despite high inventory levels and relatively abundant supply in the short term [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI innovations, with new consumer electronics products being launched, such as AI glasses from Xiaomi and Meta, which are expected to drive demand in the sector [4][5]. Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector experienced a 5.96% increase in June, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 2.50% rise in the CSI 300 index [11][13]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics, including PE and PB ratios, are currently at high historical percentiles, indicating a strong market sentiment towards the sector [21][22]. Semiconductor Supply and Demand Data - Global semiconductor sales in April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 22.68%, with a cumulative growth of 18.93% from January to April 2025, reflecting a robust recovery in demand [4]. - The report notes significant price increases in memory chips, particularly DDR4, driven by supply constraints and increased market demand [4]. Downstream Demand Tracking and Forecast - The report highlights that downstream demand for semiconductors is strong in TWS headphones, wearable devices, AI servers, and new energy vehicles, with notable growth rates in these segments [4][5]. - Global smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 increased by 1.53%, while new energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 19.08% in April 2025 [4]. Industry News Highlights - The report mentions significant developments in AI infrastructure, including Nvidia's plans to build AI factories in Europe and the release of new AI products by major tech companies [5]. - The report suggests that the semiconductor industry is likely to benefit from ongoing AI innovations and the expansion of the ASIC market, with projections for the market size to increase from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to consider leading companies in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Hanguang Technology, as well as those involved in AI-driven innovations and domestic supply chain replacements [5].

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recommendations from brokerages for July's "golden stocks," highlighting the underlying logic and potential investment opportunities for ordinary investors [1][3]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Kying Network is favored by five brokerages, making it the most recommended stock for the month; Zijin Mining, Huadian Technology, and Muyuan Foods follow closely with four recommendations each [3]. - The selection of these stocks reflects a diverse range of industries, including gaming, mining, PCB manufacturing, and agriculture, indicating a broad interest from brokerages [3]. Group 2: Key Selection Criteria - The first criterion is industry prosperity, with Kying Network benefiting from an increase in game licenses and the release of popular titles, while Huadian Technology sees a surge in demand for PCB boards due to 5G and automotive electronics [3][4]. - The second criterion focuses on policy benefits, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles, where domestic and global trends favor local companies [4]. - The third criterion emphasizes the importance of a company's competitive advantage or "moat," with Zijin Mining having significant copper reserves and cost control, and Huadian Technology holding over 20% market share in high-end PCBs [4]. Group 3: Stock Selection Methodology - The article suggests a three-step approach for investors to filter the recommended stocks: 1. Monitor changes in institutional holdings, such as Kying Network's increase from 8% to 15% in fund holdings [4]. 2. Assess order fulfillment rates, with Huadian Technology reporting a 40% year-on-year increase in new orders [4]. 3. Evaluate free cash flow rates, as evidenced by Zijin Mining's 35% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience initial fluctuations followed by a potential breakthrough, with short-term funds engaging in high-frequency trading within popular sectors while long-term funds adjust their portfolios [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on industry trends, company quality, and reasonable pricing, particularly focusing on semiconductor localization, new energy exports, and consumer recovery [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is experiencing better-than-expected conditions, particularly in the 7nm advanced process, with a significant increase in domestic CAPEX investment expected in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][5] - AI glasses have emerged as a new hotspot in consumer electronics, with strong market demand evidenced by the rapid sell-out of Xiaomi's new electrochromic glasses [1][9] - The Apple supply chain faces dual challenges of trade friction and slowing innovation, but these issues are already reflected in stock prices [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The logic chip sector shows signs of recovery, contrasting with market pessimism, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Domestic AI computing capabilities are lagging behind international counterparts, particularly NVIDIA, which is benefiting from increased capacity and CAPEX investments [3][4] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is expected to have upward potential in 2025, with advanced process equipment manufacturers showing order growth potential [7][8] Additional Important Content - The semiconductor materials sector is optimistic, with increasing domestic CAPEX and improving yield rates, suggesting a more favorable outlook than previously anticipated [5] - The AI computing direction is characterized by a divergence between domestic and international developments, with domestic players focusing on algorithm optimization [3][4] - The storage chip market is experiencing price increases for DDR4 due to capacity shifts from Korean manufacturers, with a slow recovery expected [13] - AI applications are anticipated to significantly boost storage chip demand as they become more prevalent across various devices [14] - Investors are advised to focus on selecting strong individual stocks rather than entire sectors, with a particular emphasis on AI computing, semiconductors, national chains, and storage chips [15]

Market Overview - On June 26, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.48% to 10343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.66% to 2114.43 points [1][2] - The total market turnover was 162.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3600 stocks declining [1] - In sector performance, tourism and hotels, digital currency, oil and gas extraction, and banking sectors saw gains, while innovative drugs, complete automobiles, and photolithography concept stocks faced declines [1] International Market - The U.S. stock market saw gains on June 26, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 404.41 points (0.94%) to 43386.84 points, the S&P 500 up 48.86 points (0.80%) to 6141.02 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 194.36 points (0.97%) to 20167.91 points [2][4] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 16.85 points (0.19%) to 8735.60 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.85 points (0.01%) to 7557.31 points, and the German DAX up 150.97 points (0.64%) to 23649.30 points [3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased on June 26, with WTI crude oil up 32 cents (0.49%) to $65.24 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 5 cents (0.07%) to $67.73 per barrel [3][4] Key Developments - A new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processors, the Longxin 3C6000, was released in Beijing, featuring a self-designed instruction system and achieving the highest level of security certification [4] - The semiconductor industry in China is accelerating its domestic production, with a focus on AI computing chips, CPUs, and advanced semiconductor equipment, as external restrictions increase [5] - Xiaomi launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with a starting price of 253,500 yuan, achieving over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes [6] - The Chinese government is advancing flood control infrastructure, including the construction of flood storage areas and enhancing the safety of existing reservoirs [7] Financial Sector Insights - The National Financial Supervision Administration and the People's Bank of China released a plan to establish a high-quality inclusive financial system over the next five years [7] - Tianfeng International Securities has upgraded its license to provide virtual asset trading services in Hong Kong, reflecting the growing interest in virtual assets [8] Institutional Perspectives - Fangzheng Securities suggests that after reaching new highs, sectors like brokerage, technology innovation, and the Hang Seng Tech Index may have short-term rebound opportunities [9] - CITIC Securities notes the growing demand for AI model training and inference, indicating a shift towards system-level solutions in AI computing [10] - Guotai Haitong predicts that the demand for inference computing power will reach 62.2% by 2026, highlighting liquid cooling and high-speed interconnect technologies as investment hotspots [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on June 26, 2025, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading the gains, particularly in the computer and semiconductor sectors, where stocks like Xinyi Sheng and Haiguang Information rose nearly 6% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced support for AI and other cutting-edge technology companies to apply the fifth listing standard on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, enhancing institutional inclusiveness [1] - The reform aims to serve high-quality tech companies with significant breakthroughs, broad commercial prospects, and continuous R&D investment, while also strengthening information disclosure and risk revelation [1] Group 2 - Domestic wafer manufacturers and memory manufacturers are increasingly motivated to procure domestic alternatives to ensure supply chain security and production capacity, benefiting companies in semiconductor equipment, materials, and EDA fields [2] - The Southern AI ETF (159382) closely tracks the AI index of the ChiNext, reflecting the stock price changes of listed companies related to the AI theme [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Southern AI ETF include Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Softcom Power, and others [2] Group 3 - The Southern Chip ETF (588890) tracks the Shanghai Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, which selects securities related to semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Southern Chip ETF include SMIC, Haiguang Information, and Hanwha Technology [3] Group 4 - The Southern Double Innovation ETF (159780) tracks the CSI Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, which selects 50 large-cap emerging industry stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Southern Double Innovation ETF include CATL, SMIC, and Mindray Medical [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lanke Technology is planning to go public in Hong Kong, aiming to raise approximately $1 billion, despite having over 7 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, which raises questions about the necessity of this fundraising [3][6][10][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lanke Technology, an A-share listed IC design company, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong amid the domestic semiconductor localization trend [3]. - The company announced its plan to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 20 [4]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, Lanke Technology's cash and cash equivalents amounted to approximately 7.036 billion yuan [12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Lanke Technology achieved revenue of approximately 3.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.2%, and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, soaring by 213.1% [13]. - The interconnect chip product line generated sales revenue of 3.349 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 53.31% [14]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued its high growth trajectory, reporting revenue of 1.222 billion yuan and a net profit of 525 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 65.78% and 135.14%, respectively [17]. Group 3: Strategic Intentions - The decision to pursue fundraising through a Hong Kong IPO is viewed as a strategic move rather than a necessity, aimed at enhancing brand recognition and trust with international clients, particularly in the cloud computing and AI sectors [20][21]. - The company has no controlling shareholder or actual controller, with the founders holding only 2.18 million shares each, which is insufficient for a controlling position [34][35]. Group 4: Management and Compensation - In 2024, the founders of Lanke Technology received a pre-tax salary of 9.99 million yuan each, while other executives received significantly lower compensation [37][38]. - The company invests heavily in its R&D personnel, with 74.65% of its workforce in R&D and an average annual salary nearing 1 million yuan, totaling approximately 533 million yuan in compensation [40][41]. Group 5: Market Context - The trend of A-share listed companies seeking to issue H-shares in Hong Kong is growing, with notable examples like CATL completing a $5.252 billion IPO recently [42][43]. - Lanke Technology's timing for entering the Hong Kong market appears strategic, aligning with broader market movements [44].

Group 1 - The recent tensions in the Middle East have led to a temporary impact on A-share market sentiment, but the market has rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in nearly a month [1] - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend as it approaches the policy window period at the end of June, with potential for new policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [1] - Popular sectors such as banking and innovative pharmaceuticals may experience short-term fluctuations due to accumulated gains, while TMT and technology growth sectors are anticipated to see a rebound after sufficient adjustments [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests a theme-driven market with high-low sector rotation, as popular sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and banking have shown signs of correction, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are beginning to rebound [2] - Key focus areas for 2025 include expanding domestic demand and consumption, with expectations for policies to support sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend towards domestic production of robotics is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and functional robots [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to see continued domestic growth, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to experience a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already visible in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] - The AI sector is poised for new catalysts, with significant updates expected from companies like MiniMax, indicating a resurgence in AI-related investments [2] Group 3 - The A-share market has ended a month-long period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high, supported by a broad-based rally among individual stocks [3] - The market saw a significant increase in the number of rising stocks, with over 4,700 stocks gaining, while only a few sectors like oil and coal experienced declines due to falling international oil prices [3] - Leading sectors included electric power equipment, non-bank financials, retail, automotive, and machinery [3]