芦哲认为，美联储明年降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性的担忧预计令黄金价格阶段性维持高位、美债 期限溢价走阔。 从市场反馈来看，特朗普解雇库克的消息公布后，2年美债利率骤降，表明市场预期随着2026年5月美联 储轮换新主席，更多"特朗普派"的理事就职将令美联储明年的降息预期升温。与此同时，对美联储独立 性和美元信用的担忧也令10年期美债收益率上涨，美元指数一度由98.5下跌至98.1，黄金价格由3351美 元/盎司上涨至3377美元/盎司。 "资产价格的这一表现与今年7月16—17日特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔风波时一致。当时，在17日特朗普否认 计划解雇鲍威尔、鲍威尔回应美联储相关工程符合规范后，市场迅速企稳。"芦哲表示，就此次而言， 美元指数已在下跌后迅速回稳，而黄金价格仍在高位，显示随着事件发酵而前景未明，市场对美联储独 立性的担忧仍未消除，预计后续法律层面的进展仍将对资产价格产生扰动。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲分析，当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼两位理事均由特朗普提名，未来如果 特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，并且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有4人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数，特朗普对 ...

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联储理事库克，成为1913年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会中将有4人与特朗普 立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长 端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、 美债期限溢价走阔。 特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事库克，为历史首次。美东时间2025年8月25日，特朗普签署文件，以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为，依据《联邦储备 法》正式罢免美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）。本次行动为1913年美联储成立以来首次由总统直接罢免理事的案例，也是特朗普就任总统以来对美联储独 立性的最强力的一次直接干预。 法律进展：罢免理由仍存在争议，后续库克或上诉至最高法院。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to immediate reactions in the financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [1][15][29]. Group 1: Dismissal and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement to dismiss Cook was made via social media, claiming it was "immediate" and led to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][15]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, dropping below 98.3, while gold prices reached a historical high of over $2600 per ounce [15]. - The market's reaction indicates investor concerns regarding the potential challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][17]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - Cook's position was nominated by President Biden and is set until 2038, raising questions about the legality of Trump's actions [6][24]. - Trump's justification for the dismissal revolves around allegations of Cook submitting false information regarding her housing loans, but the legal basis for such a dismissal remains uncertain [4][24]. - The potential for a court battle over Cook's dismissal could further politicize the Federal Reserve, impacting its traditional independence [24][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Risks - The Federal Reserve has historically been viewed as an independent entity, crucial for maintaining global financial stability [10][11]. - Trump's actions are seen as a direct challenge to this independence, reminiscent of past political pressures on central banks, which have led to economic instability [20][28]. - If the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure, it could undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to a loss of market confidence in U.S. monetary policy [17][29].

Group 1 - The unprecedented dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor by the President indicates a significant fracture in the Federal Reserve's institutional integrity [2] - Market reactions include a decline in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence, while U.S. stocks saw a slight increase as expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 84% to 87% [2] - The market's response is characterized as cautious, with investors hesitant to make bold moves due to the lack of historical precedent for such an event [2][5] Group 2 - Medium-term risks are underestimated, with potential increases in U.S. Treasury yields due to credit risk premiums not yet being fully priced in by the market [3] - Long-term implications suggest structural damage to the dollar's creditworthiness, as the Fed's independence has been a cornerstone of the global financial order since the 1990s [4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the outcome of the court ruling between Cook and Trump, which could either maintain the Fed's independence or lead to a significant market downturn [5] - The report highlights a broader analysis of global markets, including insights on the Chinese stock market and various asset classes, indicating a comprehensive approach to market evaluation [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to market reactions such as a decline in U.S. stock index futures and a weakening of the dollar [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is seen as a move to create vacancies within the Federal Reserve Board, potentially increasing his influence over monetary policy [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve Board, which consists of seven members, currently has one vacancy following the resignation of Adriana Kugler, with Trump nominating Stephen Moore to fill this position [2][5]. - Analysts express concerns that if Trump successfully reshapes the Federal Reserve Board, it could fundamentally alter the institution's decision-making structure [5][7]. Group 2: Legal Challenges and Implications - Cook's dismissal is facing legal scrutiny, as the Federal Reserve Act allows the President to remove governors only for "just cause," typically interpreted as misconduct rather than policy disagreements [6][7]. - The ongoing legal battle may require a resolution from the U.S. Supreme Court, which could further impact the Federal Reserve's governance and independence [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that while Cook's dismissal may not immediately affect the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, it could influence the pace of future rate cuts [8][9]. - Expectations for a potential rate cut in September are high, but the actual implementation may be cautious and limited in scope [9][10]. - The market anticipates that Trump's influence could lead to a more dovish Federal Reserve, which may affect long-term interest rate trajectories [9][10]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to increased risks of stagflation and heightened concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation [11]. - A weakened Federal Reserve may undermine the credibility of the dollar, potentially leading to a scenario where both equities and bonds face selling pressure [11]. - The anticipated rate cuts and political interference may bolster gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and President Trump, who are advocating for interest rate cuts and criticizing the Fed's current monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Treasury Secretary Scott Besant publicly calls for a "series of rate cuts" [1] - President Trump intensifies criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that the current monetary policy is detrimental to economic growth [1] - There are suggestions from the government to potentially initiate legal action regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation, further increasing pressure on the central bank [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts believe that such political interference could undermine the Fed's independence and market credibility, raising concerns about policy being influenced by non-economic factors [1] - This situation may lead to additional downward pressure on the dollar exchange rate if it continues to escalate [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Movement - The dollar index was reported at 98.43, with a 0.15% increase, opening at 98.28 [1] - The dollar index faced resistance below 98.35 and found support above 97.90, indicating a potential for upward movement after a short-term decline [1] - If the dollar index stabilizes above 98.00 today, the upward target for the future could be between 98.45 and 98.55 [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Determinants - Gold's price is primarily influenced by the strength of dollar credit and real interest rates[1] - The relationship between gold prices and CPI has weakened since the inflation issues of the 1980s[1] - During periods of stagflation, gold prices were positively correlated with real interest rates, but this has shifted to a negative correlation in recent decades[2] Group 2: Current Market Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected to end, with a potential upward trend in the medium to long term[3] - The U.S. government is likely to pursue a weaker dollar, increasing long-term dollar credit risk[3] - Recent U.S. employment data shows a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls adding less than 36,000 jobs over three months, indicating a high probability of interest rate cuts in September[3] Group 3: Historical Context - From 1971 to 1980, gold prices rose from $38 to $737, a nearly 1850% increase, driven by high inflation and dollar credit risk[3] - The second major bull market for gold occurred from 2001 to 2011, with prices rising from $270 to approximately $1,810, reflecting a similar decline in dollar credit[3] - The analysis framework suggests that gold's price movements are primarily determined by the interplay between dollar credit risk and real interest rates[3]

来源：西京研究院 本文为西京研究院发表的第851篇文章，赵建院长的第786篇原创文章。如需阅读近期"中国资产重估"系列文章《赵建：我们又处在历 史的十字路口，时代的错误不能再犯》（上、中、下）全文版，并观看私域直播及参与内部交流，请加入我们的内部会员。 前言 特朗普与美联储的降息博弈牵动市场神经，7 月 CPI 数据暂缓和了双方分歧，却难掩深层矛盾。 这场交锋并非孤例，百年间美国总统与美联储的角力不断，核心始终围绕美联储独立性—— 这既是美元信用的基石，也是政治与货币 纪律的博弈场。 本文回溯历史，解析美联储独立基因的由来、制度保障及历次冲突启示，为看清当前金融走向、调整资产配置提供关键视角。 正 文 自特朗普上台以来，就对拿着专业独立性说事的几个政府部门不满，其中最为不满的恐怕就是掌控世界货币与金融命运的美联储。特 朗普已经在多个场合对美联储及其主席鲍威尔横加指责，抱怨其不尽快降息，甚至扬言要炒掉主席鲍威尔，只无奈美联储的独立性受 到法律保护，大总统也不能为所欲为没有规矩。不过投资者对两人的恩怨情仇倒是乐此不疲，时不时围绕着降息概率和两者的关系进 行交易，市场波动性陡然升高。 随着美国7月CPI数据的公布， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts reflects deeper issues surrounding the independence of the Fed, which is crucial for the stability of the US dollar and the global financial system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is essential for maintaining the predictability of the dollar's value, which in turn supports global demand for dollar-denominated assets [5][17]. - A loss of independence could transform the dollar from a global "value anchor" into a domestic "political tool," undermining its credibility and accelerating the diversification of global reserve currencies [5][17]. Group 2: Historical Lessons - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of political pressure on the Fed, such as the 1971 Nixon administration's pressure leading to the "stagflation" period, where inflation peaked at 15% and unemployment exceeded 10% [6]. - The market's reaction to political threats against the Fed, such as Trump's threats to dismiss Powell, indicates a deep-seated fear of political interference, which can lead to significant market volatility [7]. Group 3: Background and Evolution of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 as a response to the financial crises of the 19th century, with a design aimed at preventing political interference in monetary policy [9][10]. - Legal safeguards have been put in place to ensure the Fed's independence, including restrictions on presidential dismissals and the separation of fiscal and monetary policy [10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Political and Monetary Discipline - The historical conflicts between the Fed and US presidents often arise from differing time horizons, with presidents focused on short-term electoral cycles and the Fed prioritizing long-term economic stability [16]. - The current political climate, characterized by rising debt levels and the temptation for debt monetization, poses ongoing challenges to the Fed's independence [16][17].