要么买黄金，彻底不信央行，要么买增长类资产，跑赢央行。 黄金价格势如破竹，市场对央行的不信任跃然纸上。各国央行也在买黄金，他们也不相信自己的法币。 美股受到贸易纠纷的冲击，一度大跌，但随后白宫紧急降温，TACO（Trump Always Chicken Out，特朗 普总是临阵退缩）被再次印证。美债走强，两年期国债收益率大幅下挫，收益率曲线变陡峭。以色列哈 马斯签订停火协议，石油价格走低，黄金白银双双破顶。恐慌指数VIX仍在20以上。 上星期，美股出现了一场小股灾。触发股市抛售的原因，一是两个大国之间的贸易纠纷，二是两家美国 小型银行出现大额坏账拨备。贸易纠纷题材很快因为白宫喊话而降温了，私人信贷出事而造成坏账对一 些小银行的资本金是压力，但对整体银行体系的金融稳定，在现阶段看来问题不大。笔者对这次抛售的 诊断是美股高处不胜寒，见不得风吹草动。这是系统性问题。 笔者几次指出，美国解雇工人不多，但新请员工更少。家庭调查显示人们对找工作感到越来越难，企业 则看到请人不再困难。鲍威尔的鸽派语境，让市场普遍预期10月28~29日FOMC会议会再降息一码。不 过从增长强势和通胀反弹的角度出发，鲍威尔率领的美联储只会缓慢 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices reached a historic high, increasing by $115 to over $4,300 per ounce, closing at $4,326.12 per ounce, marking a 2.8% rise [1] - The World Gold Council's research head indicated that the gold market is not yet saturated, and long-term macroeconomic support factors remain intact [2] Group 2: Oil Market - International crude oil prices hit a five-month low due to oversupply and concerns about the global economic outlook, with WTI crude falling by 2.39% to $56.87 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $60.84 per barrel [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed varying views on interest rate cuts, with Waller advocating for gradual cuts and suggesting a neutral rate lower by 100 to 125 basis points [1] - Kashkari noted a slowdown in the job market and anticipated a decline in service inflation, while Barkin mentioned that consumer spending remains robust but cautious [1]

米兰强调美联储必须保持政治中立与专业聚焦。他表示："美联储必须被视为一个诚实的参与者，绝不 能卷入气候变化、种族政治等问题。"他还呼吁，"美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是 强调关税"，并补充道："美联储必须讨论所有政府政策，否则一概不谈。" 新华财经北京10月16日电美联储理事米兰16日直言当前货币政策"过于紧缩"，并呼吁在10月28日至29日 的FOMC会议上降息50个基点，以应对再度浮现的经济不确定性。 米兰强调："政策维持紧缩的时间越长，下行风险越大。"他指出，由于中性利率迅速上升，今年货币政 策实际上已收紧约1.5个百分点。尽管美国经济"相当不错"，但他警告，"25个基点的降息导致利率调整 速度慢于实际需求"，难以有效缓冲潜在冲击。 米兰主张货币政策应"以预测为导向，而非以数据为导向"。他坦言："有政府数据会好得多，利用替代 数据追踪通胀颇具挑战性。"这一立场与其对当前政策节奏的批评相呼应——他认为仅依赖滞后数据可 能导致反应迟缓。 米兰重申支持本月大幅降息的理由："如果货币政策维持目前的紧缩水平，而经济又遭受类似冲击，这 将显著放大该冲击的负面影响。"他提及"上周出现的风险"增加了降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current Federal Reserve policy is more restrictive than commonly perceived due to a decline in the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates a tighter monetary policy environment [1] - The neutral interest rate, which is a benchmark for monetary policy, has decreased [1]

美联储米兰：人工智能投资可能导致中性利率上升。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% is seen as a signal of a shift in monetary policy, with expectations of a gradual and cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Economic Context - The recent rate cut is the first since late last year and is intended to alleviate economic downward pressure while avoiding significant market volatility [3][6]. - Inflation has decreased from a peak of 8% in August 2022 to approximately 3%, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures [6]. - Despite the reduction in inflation, the unemployment rate reached a near four-year high in August, with job growth slowing to an average of 116,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, down from 250,000 earlier in the year [6][8]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Timothy Taylor predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement gradual rate cuts over the next 6 to 12 months, likely in increments of 25 basis points [7][10]. - Market expectations for rate cuts are high, with a 98.3% probability of a cut in October and a 91.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis points cut by December [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The relationship between rate cuts and stock market performance is complex; while lower rates typically benefit equities, factors such as corporate earnings expectations and policy uncertainty can offset these effects [9][13]. - Investors are advised to reassess their dollar asset allocations within a comprehensive "return-risk" framework, considering factors like dollar interest rates, exchange rate trends, and domestic interest rate environments [12][14]. - The average annualized yield of dollar-denominated financial products has decreased from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, leading to a sense of loss among investors despite still positive returns [13].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Powell indicates that tariffs are expected to raise inflation but will not lead to sustained increases [1] - The rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve is deemed "reasonable" [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the neutral interest rate, suggesting a cautious approach is necessary [1] Summary by Categories Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are anticipated to contribute to inflationary pressures, although they are not expected to cause persistent inflation increases [1] Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut in September is considered appropriate within the current economic context [1] - The lack of clarity on the neutral interest rate calls for a careful strategy moving forward [1]

美联储保尔森：不知道中性利率在哪里，因此应谨慎行事。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is causing a critical data supply disruption, intensifying the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of interest rate cuts needed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Debate - There is a division within the Federal Reserve between those wary of inflation resurgence and those concerned about the pressure on the job market, leading to stark contrasts in monetary policy adjustment paths [3] - New Fed Governor Milan consistently advocates for "aggressive rate cuts," emphasizing the need to return interest rates to "neutral levels" as soon as possible [3] - Milan believes that the current neutral interest rate has significantly decreased compared to a year ago, indicating that the monetary policy is more restrictive now than it was a few quarters ago [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - Milan warns that while the economy appears stable, the risks of economic weakening are accumulating due to the effects of restrictive policies, necessitating timely interest rate adjustments to prevent potential risks from materializing [3] - During the September 17 Fed meeting, the decision-makers projected two rate cuts in 2025, but Milan opposed a mere 25 basis point cut, arguing for a more substantial reduction [3] - Milan has repeatedly called for larger rate cuts, even suggesting the need for five cuts within this year [3] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Constraints - Fed official Schmidt stated that current interest rates only "slightly restrict" the economy, which he views as "just right," emphasizing that inflation remains the core consideration for monetary policy [4] - Schmidt pointed out that as long as inflation exceeds targets, monetary policy must continue to suppress demand growth to create space for supply recovery and alleviate price pressures [4] - Recent price increases in durable goods and services, such as landscaping and electricity, have exceeded the Fed's 2% inflation target, with service prices rising by 3.5% in recent months [4] Group 4: Data Availability and Decision-Making - Milan expressed concerns that private sector data cannot adequately replace official government data, highlighting the lack of essential data for monetary policy formulation during the government shutdown [4] - Despite the data challenges, Milan remains optimistic that sufficient data will be available to support the Fed's next interest rate decision during the meeting on October 28-29 [4]

由于政府关门导致决策者无法获取关键数据，美联储官员们对于降息幅度依然存在分歧，其中一些人更 担心通胀，而另一些人则更关注就业市场。 由美国总统特朗普任命的最新美联储理事米兰周二重申，他希望以比同僚们快得多的速度，让利率达到 所谓的"中性"水平。中性利率是指既不刺激也不减缓经济增长的利率水平。 米兰在"管理基金协会2025年政策展望"会议上的一次谈话中表示："我确实认为，与一年前相比，中性 利率已经下降了。这使得当前的货币政策比几个季度前更具限制性。" 他补充说："货币政策的额外限制性会带来一些未来的风险"，因为"考虑到政策的滞后效应，经济预计 将会走弱。因此，短期内我对经济一点也不悲观，但如果我们不调整政策，我确实看到一些风险潜伏在 那里。" 另一方面，主张更关注通胀的声音来自堪萨斯城联储主席施密德，他周一晚间表示，他认为当前的利率 水平对经济"略微构成限制"，并称这是"恰到好处的"。 施密德在堪萨斯城的一次演讲中补充道："在通胀仍然过高的情况下，货币政策应抑制需求增长，为供 给增长和缓解经济中的价格压力留出空间。" 自上次议息会议以来的几周里，随着决策者们公开发表对未来货币政策路径的看法，美联储内部的利率 ...