Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued a work plan to promote sustained economic improvement and strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy, focusing on targeted support for foreign trade enterprises and addressing their operational challenges [1][3] - The plan includes measures to stabilize employment, particularly for key groups, by enhancing policy support, training, and risk assessment to ensure job stability and expand employment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Stimulus - The work plan aims to boost consumption through special actions, encouraging large-scale consumption upgrades and supporting first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children through subsidies and policy adjustments [4][5] - It emphasizes effective investment expansion by leveraging national policies and funds, accelerating project implementation, and stimulating private investment through various financial mechanisms [5][6] Group 3: Innovation and Resource Allocation - The plan highlights the importance of innovation, proposing initiatives to enhance technological and industrial innovation, including support for high-growth sectors and the establishment of new economic growth points [6][7] - It also focuses on improving the efficient allocation of resources, promoting the integration into the national market, and enhancing the efficiency of talent, capital, and technology allocation [7][8] Group 4: Safety and Risk Management - The work plan stresses the need for economic safety, emphasizing risk assessment and prevention in sectors like real estate and finance, while ensuring the security of food, energy, and supply chains [7][8] - It outlines a timeline for policy implementation, aiming for significant results by the third quarter of 2025, with a comprehensive policy framework to support high-quality economic development [8]

美联储博斯蒂克：预计美国今年经济增长率将放缓至1.1%，通胀率料将升至2.9%。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England member Greene indicates that the UK faces risks of economic growth downturn while inflation presents upward risks [1] - UK inflation appears to be in a "plateau" phase rather than a "hump" phase [1]

如果关税增加没有推高通胀，那么美国经济仍处在此前的"黄金路径"上。如果一切尘埃落 定，那么我认为我们应该继续前进（降息）。 古尔斯比进一步指出，一些行业出现了"负担分摊"现象，关税成本在供应商、生产商和消费者之间分 担。"我们试图弄清楚的是：这就是全部影响，还是即将有更多影响出现在通胀数据中？"他说。 值得一提的是，这是继沃勒、鲍曼之后，第三位发声降息的美联储官员。目前美联储内部对前景预期存 在分歧，德银表示6月点阵图反映出美联储官员的分歧程度创下十年新高。 官员对降息时机看法不一 短短几天内，沃勒、鲍曼之后第三位美联储官员松口，若关税未引发通胀压力，美联储可能会恢复降 息。 在周一的一次活动中，2025年美联储FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示： 过去三个月的通胀数据显示通胀压力并不明显，这一结果令人意外。 见闻此前文章提及，德银表示，6月点阵图反映出美联储官员的分歧程度创下十年新高，因为他们在如 何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。不过，按点阵图的最大值与最小值之差衡量，联储官 员对2025年利率路径的不确定性并非史无前例，甚至低于去年同期的水平。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, believes that risks are still two-sided, but they lean towards downside risks for economic growth, while there are also upside risks for inflation [1] Economic Growth Risks - Green emphasizes that the risks to economic growth are skewed downwards, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] Inflation Risks - There are concerns regarding upward risks to inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist or increase [1]

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) anticipates a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Economic Growth Projections - The ECB projects that the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.9% in 2023, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [1] Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook for the Eurozone is more uncertain than in the past, with global trade frictions presenting both upside and downside risks [1] Risks Associated with Global Trade - Upside risks include the fragmentation of global supply chains, while downside risks involve a decline in demand for Eurozone export products [1]

泰国议会批准规模达1154亿泰铢的支出计划，旨在支持经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].

正如刘淼所言，AI已成为本届夏季达沃斯论坛的核心议题之一。 从议程设置到企业展区，与AI相关的讨论和应用展示占据显著位置。在会场展区内，天工机器人、脑机交互 设备、全自动无人机巡检系统等AI产品吸引了大量参会者驻足观看。 与每年1月在瑞士达沃斯小镇召开的世界经济论坛年会不同，夏季达沃斯更加聚焦商业未来和技术进步。 世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（以下简称"2025夏季达沃斯"）即将拉开帷幕，证券时报记者第一时间探 访年会现场，捕捉2025夏季达沃斯的亮点。作为观察全球经济脉动和产业变革浪潮的重要窗口，本届夏季达沃 斯论坛参会人数创近年之最，充分彰显年会的影响力和中国超大规模市场的吸引力。 "这是我第二次参会，我个人最关注的话题是科技，特别是与人工智能（AI）相关的。"在夏季达沃斯开幕前一 日，证券时报记者在现场采访了图灵新智算创始人刘淼，他分享了对本届夏季达沃斯的前瞻观察。 面对一系列外部挑战，今年以来中国经济顶住压力，经济运行总体平稳，新动能成长壮大，较强的经济韧劲和 活力不断显现。世界经济论坛官网显示，"解读中国经济"是本届年会最受关注的会议之一，嘉宾们希望探讨由 科技驱动的经济增长模式为中国带来的新增 ...