Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, supported by recent inflation and employment data [1][4][5] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with overall inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been unexpectedly mild, with energy prices down 1.1% and food prices stable, indicating that businesses are absorbing most of the additional costs associated with tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with potential downward revisions to employment data, which may pressure the Federal Reserve's stance [6][8] - The dollar index has resumed its downward trend, indicating potential weakness for the dollar unless other major central banks act more quickly to ease policies [8][9] - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by strong earnings recovery, particularly in the technology sector, which has outperformed other sectors [11][12] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is approaching the 24,000-point mark, with potential for further gains if it can maintain levels above 24,100 points [12] - The overall market rebound is concentrated among a few leading companies, with the S&P 500 index showing that only a small percentage of companies have reached new highs [11]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures showed a mixed performance, while international precious metals experienced gains, indicating divergent trends in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 18, domestic gold futures (沪金) were priced at 777.68 CNY per gram, with a gain of 0.32%, and silver futures (沪银) at 9240 CNY per kilogram, up 0.35% [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold was quoted at 3396.00 CNY per ounce, reflecting a 0.42% increase, while COMEX silver was at 38.14 USD per ounce, up 0.33% [1]. Market Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 18 were as follows: - 沪金: Opened at 775.92 CNY, peaked at 777.80 CNY, and dipped to 774.32 CNY per gram [2]. - 沪银: Opened at 9176.00 CNY, reached a high of 9255.00 CNY, and a low of 9154.00 CNY per kilogram [2]. - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3382.40 USD, peaked at 3403.60 USD, and fell to 3368.00 USD per ounce [2]. - COMEX Silver: Opened at 38.04 USD, reached a high of 38.25 USD, and a low of 37.83 USD per ounce [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding the forecast of 3.0% [3]. - The July PPI, however, rose by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating potential inflationary pressures [3]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have fluctuated, with a 84.6% probability for a 25 basis point cut [3]. Market Analysis - Recent data from the U.S. shows a mixed outlook on inflation, leading to reduced expectations for the extent of rate cuts in September, although supportive conditions for future cuts remain [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.32%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, and the real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, the S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, the RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed [2] - After the US officially announced no additional tariffs on gold, the price difference between London gold and New York gold quickly converged, leading to a weakening of global gold prices. The market returned to trading based on fundamental data. US inflation has room to continue rising, and the Fed is in a dilemma on monetary policy. The current data supports a 25bp interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3] - Geopolitical factors did not bring incremental positive news, and the Trump-Putin talks did not reach an agreement but did not deteriorate either [4] - In the short term, the gold price remains in a range-bound state, with resistance formed around $3,400. Short-term gold prices need to be cautious about correction risks [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The basis of the domestic market (spot - futures) was -2.71 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 1.82 yuan or -40.2%. The price difference between domestic and foreign futures (domestic - foreign) was -5.09 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 5.70 yuan or -52.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 36,345 kilograms, a week-on-week increase of 300 kilograms or 0.8%. The COMEX gold inventory was 38,636,332 ounces, a week-on-week increase of 51,345 ounces or 0.13%. The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 965.36 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.72 tons or 0.60%. The CFTC's net long position in gold speculation was 154,226 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 7,585 contracts or -4.7% [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and the US Treasury yield was 4.32%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, and the VIX index dropped to 15. The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.34%. Oil prices fell 0.1%, and US inflation expectation was 2.38% [16][19] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.94%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.7%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%, and the gold price fell 1.8%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index fell. US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.53%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.69%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.57%. The euro appreciated 0.52%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.75%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.19%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [24][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation dropped to 154,000 contracts, and the SPDR Gold ETF's holding rebounded to 965 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold and silver prices corrected, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 87.8 [34][36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US July new home starts and building permits - Wednesday: China's August LPR - Thursday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US August manufacturing PMI; Fed monetary policy minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains high, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields increasing. The US inflation is higher than expected, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. The market will continue to play the game around economic data, and stock market volatility will increase. It is expected that the market risk preference will continue to rise, and the US dollar index will oscillate at a high level. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine situation needs to be continuously observed [9][36] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - The market risk preference remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase. The yield of US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The price of gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The VIX index drops to 15. The spot commodity index closes down, and the price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel [9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, including both US and Chinese A-share markets. The S&P 500 index rises 0.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.7%, the Hang Seng Index rises 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 3.73%. The market returns to trading based on fundamental economic data and continues the game on the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US inflation has room to continue rising, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. The stock market volatility will increase. The domestic stock market reaches a new high, but the fundamental data is weak [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - The yields of most global bond markets rise, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The yields of most eurozone government bonds rise, and the yields of most emerging market bonds fall. The yield of 10-year Chinese government bonds rises to 1.75%. The domestic bond market remains weak [14][19][23] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.01%, the euro rises 0.52%, the pound rises 0.75%, the yen rises 0.37%, the Swiss franc rises 0.19%, and the ringgit, rupee, real, and rand appreciate, while the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Korean won, and peso depreciate [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - The price of spot gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. Gold is in a range-bound state in the short term. The price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel. The geopolitical risk gives a certain premium, but the global crude oil demand outlook is not good, and the oil price is difficult to rise continuously. The spot commodity index oscillates and closes down [30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US inflation is higher than expected. The core CPI is 3.1%, and the PPI far exceeds expectations. The impact of tariffs on prices is obvious, and the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts falls. It is expected that a substantial interest rate cut in September is basically impossible, and a moderate interest rate cut is the basic expectation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still difficult to end [32][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US new housing starts and building permits in July - Wednesday: China's LPR in August - Thursday: Manufacturing PMIs of France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US in August; Federal Reserve interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

Group 1: Inflation Insights - The July CPI data showed stagnation, while the PPI unexpectedly rose by 0.9% month-on-month, indicating potential inflationary pressures[2] - Trade services were the main driver of the PPI increase, suggesting that traders may be raising prices to enhance profit margins in response to tariff impacts[15] - The transmission of PPI to CPI is expected to have a time lag, with wholesale trade growth contributing more significantly than retail trade[17] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The decision to lower rates in September is seen as a political issue, while the extent of the cut is viewed as an economic question[3] - Current data trends suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with expectations leaning towards two rate cuts within the year[3] - The anticipated rate cut may not be a solution but rather the beginning of new challenges, particularly concerning persistent inflation[26] Group 3: Economic Risks - Risks include aggressive tariff policies leading to stagflation or recession, with dual pressures from debt burdens and monetary tightening[27] - The potential for tariff expansions to exceed expectations could result in a significant slowdown in global economic growth[27] - Geopolitical tensions may increase asset price volatility, exacerbating market fluctuations[27]

Inflation Trends - The effective tariff rate for U.S. imports rose to 9.1% as of June 2025, with a cumulative increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year[5] - Tariffs are expected to lead to an approximate 2.8% increase in U.S. goods prices based on a thumb rule calculation[40] - Core goods inflation is primarily driven by high import dependency and low inventory levels, particularly in categories like furniture and apparel[20] Economic Implications - The direct impact of tariffs results in about 50% of the tariff increase being passed on to consumer prices[24] - The indirect impact on domestic goods prices has shown signs of slowing, indicating limited transmission of tariff effects to local products[27] - Despite a rebound in goods inflation, core service inflation remains the largest contributor to nominal inflation, with a contribution of 82% to the CPI growth in June 2025[47] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to continue rebounding in the second half of 2025, with a peak CPI growth rate of approximately 3.2% by December 2025, followed by a decline to around 2.3% by mid-2026[56] - The market's consensus on inflation risks appears to be overestimated, particularly for mid-term projections, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy[61] - Political pressures may further influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to increased easing in 2026[64]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing severe challenges, with inflation pressures rising and increasing uncertainty, highlighted by a significant surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July [1][3] - The July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.7%, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2022, which shattered optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][3] - The surge in PPI reveals the underlying vulnerabilities of the U.S. economy, previously portrayed as strong, and indicates the adverse effects of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt surpassed $37 trillion shortly before the PPI data release, indicating a significant fiscal burden due to excessive spending and borrowing [5] - The high-interest rate environment means the U.S. must pay over $1 trillion annually in interest, further complicating the economic landscape [5] - The previously touted non-farm payroll data for July has been called into question, with revisions showing a decline in economic performance, suggesting a disconnect between reported and actual economic conditions [5] Group 3 - The inflation crisis has global repercussions, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and capital outflows from emerging markets, increasing currency depreciation pressures [7] - The high borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rates are raising loan and investment costs for businesses worldwide, contributing to a slowdown in global economic activity [7] - China faces dual pressures from both domestic and international fronts, with risks of capital outflow and currency depreciation due to the U.S. high-interest rate environment, alongside potential impacts on exports from a cooling U.S. economy [7]

Group 1: U.S. National Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has reached a record high of $37 trillion, marking a significant increase from $36 trillion in November 2023, with an average daily increase of approximately $37 billion [1][2] - Interest payments on the $37 trillion debt are projected to be $1.44 trillion annually, which is 2.3 times the U.S. military budget for 2024 [1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Risks - The Trump administration's proposed cash subsidy plan, distributing $500 to each American household totaling $200 billion, raises concerns about exacerbating the national debt crisis [2][3] - The combination of previous tariff policies and the new cash stimulus could lead to a short-term inflation spike, potentially reaching 3.5% in 2025, creating a vicious cycle of cash distribution, inflation, interest rate hikes, and worsening debt [2][3] Group 3: Fiscal Health Indicators - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 135%, significantly exceeding the typical corporate warning threshold of 60% [7] - The projected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is 5.8%, nearing levels seen before the Greek debt crisis [8] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The U.S. faces a dilemma with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, where maintaining high rates to combat inflation increases debt servicing costs, while lowering rates could trigger asset bubbles [9] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" is evident, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) accounting for 12% of global trade settlements by 2025, indicating cracks in the dollar's dominance [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The U.S. is at a critical juncture, with the national debt surpassing $37 trillion signaling potential restructuring of the global credit system [11] - The challenge lies in balancing short-term political gains with long-term economic health, as reliance on debt expansion and monetary easing could lead to severe liquidity issues in the future [11]

Group 1 - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and semiconductors, with initial rates being low but potentially increasing to 200% or 300% for imported semiconductors [5][6] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to address the Ukraine crisis and broader issues of peace and security, with both sides aiming to enhance bilateral cooperation in trade and economic matters [7] - Market traders have reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although a rate cut is still anticipated later in 2025 [8] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that inflation in the U.S. is complex and requires further analysis before making decisions on interest rates, suggesting that tariffs could contribute to inflation while also suppressing growth [8][9] - The potential for a halt in rate cuts is linked to rising yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, as indicated by Fed chair candidate Summerlin [9]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In the US, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 0.3%-0.4% in the coming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and clothing [1][2] - The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation rates is projected to reach 3.2% by December, with expectations of a decline towards target levels next year as tariff impacts diminish and the labor market cools [1][2] Group 2: China's Economic Situation - In contrast to the US, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell into deep deflation, with a forecasted PPI inflation rate of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for next year, attributed to severe overcapacity issues [2][3] Group 3: Economic Data Reliability - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of US economic data, with evidence of a slight decline in data quality over the long term, potentially impacting the information value of economic indicators [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin has generated skepticism in the market regarding its potential to significantly alter Russian gas supplies or lead to a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine, with natural gas prices remaining stable [7] - The meeting is not expected to result in substantial changes to Russian oil supply, as constraints are primarily due to OPEC+ quotas and investment levels rather than US sanctions [7] Group 5: UK Monetary Policy - Following hawkish signals from the Bank of England, the expected timeline for interest rate adjustments has been pushed back, with forecasts for the terminal rate now anticipated to be reached in April instead of March [8] - The GBP is expected to face depreciation risks, leading to revised forecasts for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD exchange rates [8] Group 6: Tariff Impacts - The US has announced higher tariffs on India and Switzerland, which are expected to negatively impact economic growth in these countries [9] Group 7: Economic and Market Predictions - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with specific forecasts for major economies including the US (1.7%), China (4.7%), and the Euro area (1.2%) [10] - Policy rates are expected to adjust, with the US rate forecasted at 3.13% for 2026 [10] Group 8: Commodity and Currency Markets - Predictions for commodity prices include Brent crude oil at $111 per barrel and natural gas prices at $3.90 per million British thermal units for 2025 [12] - Currency forecasts indicate a potential increase in the EUR/GBP exchange rate to 0.87 over the next three months [8]