Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. fiscal pressure is expected to impact U.S. Treasury yields, particularly with concerns over budget resolutions and potential government shutdowns [1] - The U.S. Congress passed a budget resolution for the fiscal year 2025 in April, but it lacks legal effect and cannot directly allocate funds [1] - If the budget bill is not passed by September 30, a temporary funding bill will be required to avoid government shutdown risks [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the Trump tax cuts this year is anticipated to further increase the U.S. fiscal deficit pressure [1] - Market concerns regarding fiscal pressure and inflation risks are likely to keep U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the mid-term premium and inflation expectations, elevated [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain above 4.0% for some time, with future downward movement dependent on Trump’s policies, the economic pressures in the U.S., and Federal Reserve statements [1]

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a significant drop today, with the latest Shanghai gold futures reported at 787.28 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 4.18% [1] - The opening price for today was 820.58 CNY per gram, with a maximum price reaching 828.74 CNY per gram and a minimum of 785.02 CNY per gram [1][4] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 840-845 CNY, while support levels are noted between 740-745 CNY [4] Group 2 - Recent interest rate futures indicate that traders have lowered the expectation for interest rate cuts this year from four times to three, each by 25 basis points [3] - The current federal funds rate remains in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance despite external pressures [3] - The probability of a rate cut in May is now below 5%, and the likelihood for June has decreased from 78% to 67% following comments from former President Trump [3]

此外，财报季也是美股市场的交易主线之一，下周包括特斯拉、谷歌在内的多家巨头公布的最新财报将成为美 股市场的重要考验。华尔街警告称，大型企业CEO的前景判断比以往任何时候都更重要，一旦释放更多悲观 预期或将加剧市场动荡。 美联储搅动市场 "解雇鲍威尔"风波搅动市场。 正值美股市场动荡之际，美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾彻底激化，进一步加剧了市场的紧张情 绪。另据日程安排，美联储将于北京时间下周四公布经济状况褐皮书，该报告将揭晓美联储对当下美国经济的 评估。 当前，关税政策的不确定性仍主导着市场情绪，下周三，美国、欧元区和英国将同步公布4月制造业与服务业 PMI初值。分析指出，本期PMI报告至关重要，在增长担忧加剧的环境下，贸易不确定性或已压制新订单。 本周，美股三大指数全线下挫，道指、纳指周跌幅均超过2.6%，标普500指数周跌幅达1.5%。 受美国掀起的"关税风暴"影响，素有"恐慌指数"之称的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）一度飙升至60， 目前虽回落至30左右，但仍远高于17.6的长期中位值。 当前，关于"解雇美联储主席鲍威尔"的事态进展正牵动着投资者情绪。 在鲍威尔的"鹰派"讲话彻底激怒特朗普 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, it gives a view of "oscillation" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price center of oil rose significantly. Geopolitical issues, such as the tension between the US and Iran, and the market's attention to the implementation of US tariff policies, are expected to cause the oil price to continue its rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 increased by 30% compared to the same period last year. The short - term supply shortage of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease, and the domestic bonded low - sulfur marine fuel oil export may gradually increase. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after short - term oil price fluctuations [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material supply may be affected by US sanctions on Venezuela, and the comprehensive production cost of local refineries will increase in the second quarter, which will suppress supply. Terminal demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but the lack of momentum in traditional infrastructure may limit the actual improvement in demand [2]. - **Polyester**: Multiple polyester plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts. Downstream demand support has weakened, and polyester chain prices are under pressure to fall [2]. - **Rubber**: Domestic production in Yunnan is expected to be normal, and downstream tire demand remains stable. With supply increasing and demand stable, rubber prices are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in weather conditions [3]. - **Methanol**: The supply side has good production profits, and overseas supply is recovering. The demand side is expected to remain high in the short term but may weaken in the long term. Overall, the near - term inventory will continue to decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: As refinery maintenance increases, supply pressure decreases, but demand will also weaken marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI May contract closed at $71.48/barrel, up $2.12 or 3.06%; Brent May contract closed at $74.74/barrel, up $1.11 or 1.51%; SC2505 closed at 553.9 yuan/barrel, up 16.5 yuan or 3.07%. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran led to the rise in oil prices, and the overall oil price is expected to continue to rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU2505 closed down 0.37% at 3208 yuan/ton; LU2506 closed down 0.81% at 3677 yuan/ton. The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 was 5200000 tons, an increase of 1200000 tons or 30% compared to last year [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2506 closed down 0.75% at 3587 yuan/ton. Raw material supply may be affected by sanctions, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but traditional infrastructure may limit demand improvement [2]. - **Polyester**: TA505 closed down 1.06% at 4842 yuan/ton; EG2505 closed down 0.09% at 4447 yuan/ton. Multiple polyester plants carried out maintenance and production cuts, and downstream demand weakened [2]. - **Rubber**: RU2505 fell 110 yuan/ton to 16560 yuan/ton; NR fell 0 yuan/ton to 14390 yuan/ton; BR fell 25 yuan/ton to 13535 yuan/ton. Yunnan's production is expected to be normal, and downstream demand is stable [3]. - **Methanol**: Supply is recovering, and demand is expected to weaken in the long term. The near - term inventory will decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose [4]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure decreases, but demand weakens marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - **PVC**: Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on March 31, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US attacks Iran without a nuclear agreement, the US will be severely hit. Trump previously threatened to bomb Iran if it does not accept the negotiation proposal in early March [9]. - New York Fed President Williams said there is a risk of inflation rising this year, but his baseline view is that inflation will remain relatively stable, and inflation is affected by tariffs and other policies [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [26]. - **4.3 Inter - term Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [71]. 3.6 Contact Information The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [76].

【央行圆桌汇】人民银行：根据国内外经济金融形 势和金融市场运行情况 择机降准降息 ·中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第一季度例会 ·美联储维持利率不变 ·英国央行维持基准利率不变 ·日本央行维持现行利率水平不变 ·瑞士央行将基准利率下调25个基点至0.25% ·俄罗斯央行宣布维持关键利率在21%不变 ·巴西央行加息100个基点 ·土耳其央行将隔夜拆借利率提高至46% 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第一季度（总第108次）例会于3月18日召开。会议研究了下 阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根 据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币 信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ·美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间。这是自1月底会议以来，美联储再 次决定维持利率不变。美联储在声明中提到"经济前景不确定性增加"，相较于1月议息会议声明的措 辞"经济前景不确定"，程度进一步升级。 ·美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies - The U.S. plans to implement tariffs on Mexico and Canada as scheduled on March 4, with further tariffs on EU goods expected soon[3] - The Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation risks and economic growth, suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments[4] - Japan's central bank is closely monitoring U.S. policies and their potential impact on global and domestic economies[15] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 down 1.0%, while the Dow Jones increased by 1.0% and the Nasdaq fell by 3.5%[17] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 20 basis points to 3.99%, and the 10-year yield fell by 18 basis points to 4.24%[21] - The dollar index rose by 0.86% to 107.56, while the euro and pound fell by 0.79% and 0.42% respectively against the dollar[25] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. new home sales in January were annualized at 657,000, below the expected 680,000, marking a 10.5% month-over-month decline[6] - The PCE price index in January rose by 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with expectations, but personal consumption expenditures weakened[6] - Durable goods orders in January increased by 3.4% year-over-year, significantly higher than the previous -3.5%[8]