智通财经7月23日电，日本央行副行长内田真一表示，目前而言，日本央行必须通过宽松货币政策支撑 经济。 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：目前而言，日本央行必须通过宽松货币政策支撑经济。 ...

Core Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains extremely high [1] - Maintaining an accommodative monetary policy is crucial to support the economy [1] Group 1 - The high level of uncertainty in trade policies could impact economic stability [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy indicates a proactive approach to economic support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9204, with an opening price of 9110 and a current price of 9213, reflecting a 0.70% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9244, while the lowest is 9095, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that silver will benefit more than gold from the anticipated easing of monetary policy, with a recommended trading range for the main silver contract set between 9020 and 10000 per kilogram [4] Group 2 - AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver indicates that Australia's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lower interest rates [3] - The basic forecast from AMP predicts rate cuts in August, November, February, and May of the following year, with the potential for quicker policy easing due to weak employment data [3] - The initial consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is expected to rise to 61.5 from June's final value of 60.7, with inflation expectations also being closely monitored [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown strong performance and liquidity, with significant capital inflows and a favorable market environment driven by a loose monetary policy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.38% in July [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.152 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The fund's net inflow was 45.0394 million yuan, with a total of 1.441 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.64% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 412 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading volume for the ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 13.16% and a transaction volume of 1.203 billion yuan [3]. - The central bank's current stance is accommodative, supporting liquidity in the market amid global uncertainties [3]. - The insurance industry has raised over 74 billion yuan in capital this year, indicating a growing demand for capital [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a tracking error of 0.035% over the past month [5]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding government bonds [5].

但旧金山联储主席戴利却打出"鸽派组合拳"，她坚持认为年底前降息两次仍属合理，并强调："关税的 实际影响比预期温和，我们不该过度收紧伤害就业市场。"更引人注目的是，理事沃勒突然抛出"7月应 降息25个基点"的震撼观点，其提出的三大理由极具杀伤力：关税通胀具有暂时性、经济增速已低于潜 在水平、就业市场暗藏风险。这种高层意见分裂导致利率期货市场剧烈波动，目前定价显示9月降息概 率维持在54%，但7月行动可能性已升至30%。 【技术分析】 相比于当前的通胀和就业数据，美联储独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易的主线，宽松货币政策预期将 驱动金银价格进一步走强，而白银将相较于黄金而言更收益于这一预期，策略上建议关注白银的做多机 会，沪银主力合约参考运行区间9020-10000元/千克。今天银价大概率是震荡走势，前高在9285，今天 沪银二次上行的话关注是否有双顶或者次高点，如果形成可以尝试做空，看一下高位震荡的回落空间， 下方看到9150。 周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，白银期货震荡上行，最新沪银主力交投于9239元/千克，涨幅0.98%，当前 正处于美联储政策、美国经济数据、美元走势和关税政策的多重博弈之中，本交易日需要关注 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-18 此外，食品、饮料及外出就餐等分项环比值回升，与前日公布总 CPI 中具备韧性的食品通胀相 符。上个月零售额增长的部分原因是关税政策所推动的价格上涨，而非销量形成的驱动。 今晨联储主席热门候选人、理事沃勒再度鸽派表态，他表示美联储应当在七月议息会议中将利 率下调 25 个基点。相比于当前的通胀和就业数据，美联储独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易 的主线，宽松货币政策预期将驱动金银价格进一步走强，而白银将相较于黄金而言更收益于这 一预期，策略上建议关注白银的做多机会，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 759-809 元/克，沪银 主力合约参考运行区间 9020-10000 元/千克。 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au(T+D) | 元/克 | 770.92 | 772.20 | -1.28 | -0.17% | Ag(T+D) | 元/千克 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Fed officials' hawkish stance on interest rate cuts led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the expectation of loose monetary policy due to the Fed's undermined independence persists. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver prices. Traders are advised to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Price Performance - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.05% to 778.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.11% to 9167.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.17% to 3353.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver decreased 0.65% to 38.49 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. 3.2 Market Participants' Views - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, so there is no urgent need for an interest rate cut. US President Trump hopes for a loose monetary policy and suggests the Fed should cut the interest rate below 1%. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both the September and December FOMC meetings [2]. 3.3 Key Data Comparison - **Gold**: The closing price of Au(T + D) was 777.46 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Gold was 3351.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.03%. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 947.64 tons [4]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Ag(T + D) was 9172.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.60% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Silver was 39.00 dollars/ounce, up 3.99%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons, a 1.41% increase [4]. 3.4 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: The closing price of COMEX Gold's active contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.54% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 12.60% to 18.09 million lots; open interest increased by 1.25% to 44.31 million lots; inventory remained unchanged at 1143 tons [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of COMEX Silver's active contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, down 1.70% from the previous day; open interest decreased by 0.47% to 16.28 million lots; inventory increased by 0.34% to 15447 tons [6]. 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc [11][16][27] 3.6 Near - and Far - Month Structure - There are charts showing the near - and far - month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, London Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the price differences between different contracts [20][21][38] 3.7 Management Fund Net Long Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver management funds and prices [41] 3.8 ETF Holdings - There are charts showing the total holdings of Gold and Silver ETFs [48] 3.9 Internal - External Price Differences - On July 14, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 25.37 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.43 yuan/gram; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 356.49 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.55 dollars/ounce [49]

特朗普周五表示 暂无罢免鲍威尔的计划，但称其工作"糟糕透顶"，"让国家损失大量资金"。 白宫预算主管沃特（Russell Vought）周四致信鲍威尔，暗示其在 25亿美元装修项目上向国会作伪证或违反建筑许可规定。 分析人士认为， 这是在为以"正当理由"罢免鲍威尔制造法律依据，因最高法院裁决限制了总统因政策分歧解职美联储官员的权力。 白宫顾问正在加紧对美联储主席鲍威尔展开施压行动，指控他在国会就美联储总部装修项目撒谎或严重管理不当，为罢免鲍威尔开辟新的法律途径。这一策略 呼应了尼克松政府1972年通过散布假消息损害美联储信誉的做法。 7月11日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示， 围绕美联储总部翻修的争议，可能会成为特朗普试图因利率分歧而罢免鲍威尔 的借口 。 文章称，特朗普同时在负责首都重大建设项目审批的联邦委员会中安插三名白宫顾问，包括白宫副幕僚长布莱尔（James Blair）。 这一举措与尼克松总统在1972年大选前发起的类似施压活动相呼应，当时他的政府捏造了美联储主席伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）在推行不受欢迎的经济政策的同 时寻求加薪的虚假消息，目的是 ...