2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 万吨。 3）根据钢联资讯，海外媒体报道印尼某重要金属加工园区内 ...

目 录 导 论 结 语 编写说明与致谢 导 论 一条道路的开拓，离不开漫长的积累和艰辛的探索。 金融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局。党的十八大以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央 从战略全局出发，加强党对金融工作的集中统一领导和统筹谋划，推动金融事业发展取得新的重大成 就，逐步走出一条中国特色金融发展之路。习近平总书记对金融事业发展的重大理论和实践问题作出一 系列重要论述，构成了习近平经济思想的金融篇。 福建是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要孕育地和实践地。在福建工作期间，习近平同志 基于中国社会主义初级阶段的基本国情、中国特色社会主义基本经济制度、改革开放初期国内外金融发 展状况，运用马克思主义基本原理，以广阔视野、前瞻思维和实事求是的态度，围绕如何走出一条符合 中国实际和时代要求的金融发展道路，进行了一系列深入探索与具体实践。 中国特色金融发展之路，既遵循现代金融发展的客观规律，更具有适合中国国情的鲜明特色，是一 条前无古人的创新之路。报告认为，这条道路以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指引，以政治性 筑牢发展根基，以人民性锚定价值坐标，并通过"两个结合"实现金融体系的制度创新与实践突破，为 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is committed to advancing its "dual carbon" goals and has established the world's largest and most complete new energy industry chain, with significant growth potential in green finance [1] Green Finance Development - China has the largest green credit scale globally, and its green bond and green insurance markets rank among the top in the world. The funding demand to achieve carbon peak by 2030 is expected to exceed 25 trillion yuan [1] - Green finance is focused on sectors such as electricity, gas, water production and supply, as well as transportation, warehousing, and postal services, with continuous improvement in service quality [1] - As of the end of Q1 this year, the loan balances for infrastructure green upgrades, energy low-carbon transitions, and ecological protection were 18.11 trillion yuan, 8.13 trillion yuan, and 4.81 trillion yuan respectively, with quarterly increases of 1.47 trillion yuan, 468 billion yuan, and 426.9 billion yuan [1] Challenges in Green Finance - There are challenges in green finance, particularly in ecological environment governance projects that require significant external financing but have limited short-term cash flow and repayment sources [2] - The need for a complementary approach between policy-based and commercial finance is emphasized, along with the necessity for a collaborative path that balances ecological, economic, and financial interests [2] Standardization and Product Development - A robust standard system is essential for green finance, with five pillars established: green finance standards, environmental information disclosure, incentive mechanisms, product and market systems, and international cooperation [2] - The development of innovative financial products tailored to specific project needs is crucial to mobilize and incentivize more social capital into green industries [3] Systematic Planning - Many green finance projects are long-term endeavors, requiring systematic planning and coordination. For instance, while reservoir construction may not yield immediate repayment sources, they can generate stable returns over decades, which can be transformed into real estate investment trusts (REITs) [3] - There is a call for enhanced systematic planning and the combination of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to promote financial product innovation and expand the carbon trading market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the "Yuanjing Energy ABS" marks a significant step in the securitization of wind power assets and provides innovative solutions for companies with green electricity and ESG needs [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project has an issuance scale of 285 million yuan and a term of approximately 50 years, with no open exit arrangements during its duration [1]. - This is the first clean energy-based real estate asset-backed security (ABS) in the market, indicating a key advancement in the securitization of clean energy assets [1][2]. Group 2: Financing and Investment - The ABS product allows for the monetization of future stable cash flows, enhancing the efficiency of capital utilization for Yuanjing Energy [2]. - The project has attracted diverse investors, including banks, public funds, and foreign institutions, which enhances liquidity and valuation efficiency of the underlying assets [5][4]. Group 3: Market Impact and Innovation - The project is seen as a standardized "carbon-neutral service tool" that can help core enterprises engage their supply chain in green electricity investments, accelerating the decarbonization process [3]. - The inclusion of renewable energy green power certificates (GEC) in the project enhances the economic value of clean energy projects, promoting the development of a green economy [3]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the need for a diversified product system to support green low-carbon transitions in the capital market [3]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) aims to continue developing the real estate ABS market, focusing on high-quality development of state-owned enterprises and asset listing platforms [7][6].

任德奇提到，对标服务国家"双碳"目标要求，我国绿色金融发展还存在一些问题，主要是标准覆盖面不 够、产品创新和市场机制不够完善。一方面，现行的绿色金融标准，主要是服务"纯绿"经济活动，也就 是碳排放量很低或接近净零排放的经济活动，还没有很好地覆盖碳排放较高行业的低碳转型经济活动。 另一方面，目前金融支持绿色低碳发展的价格发现功能尚未充分发挥，特别是激励高碳企业降碳的产品 创新和市场机制仍有不足。 为高质量服务"双碳"目标实现，做好绿色金融大文章，需要在以下方面加大工作力度：一是完善政策标 准。加强金融政策与产业政策协同，建议尽快出台国家层面的转型金融标准，充分覆盖重点高碳行业， 支持符合国家产业政策导向的企业，通过采用先进技术和设备更新实现降碳，形成正向激励。二是加强 产品创新。深化碳市场建设，扩大参与碳市场的金融机构主体范围，丰富期货、期权等碳金融产品种 类，完善产品定价激励约束机制，助力企业减碳。三是加快基础设施建设。持续提高企业信息披露质 量，提升碳核算能力，加强碳足迹管理，在助力产品创新、促进企业降低融资成本的同时，有效防 范"洗绿""漂绿"风险。 （文章来源：证券日报） 本报讯 （记者熊悦）6月19日 ...

加强产品创新。深化碳市场建设，扩大参与碳市场的金融机构主体范围，丰富期货、期权等碳金融产品 种类，完善产品定价激励约束机制，助力企业减碳。加快基础设施建设。持续提高企业信息披露质量， 提升碳核算能力，加强碳足迹管理，在助力产品创新、促进企业降低融资成本的同时，有效防范"洗 绿""漂绿"风险。 任德奇表示，一方面，现行的绿色金融标准，主要是服务"纯绿"经济活动，也就是碳排放量很低或接近 净零排放的经济活动，还没有很好地覆盖碳排放较高行业的低碳转型经济活动。我国的发电、钢铁等八 大高碳行业的碳排放量约占全国碳排放总量的75%。未来一段时期，这些行业在国民经济运行中仍将扮 演重要角色，同时也是节能降碳的重点领域，相关企业在设备更新、技术改造过程中面临巨大的资金缺 口，迫切需要得到更多金融支持。 北京商报讯（记者 宋亦桐）6月19日，在2025陆家嘴论坛"全体大会八：完善绿色金融政策、标准和产 品体系"上，交通银行董事长任德奇指出，我国绿色金融发展还存在一些问题，主要是标准覆盖面不 够、产品创新和市场机制不够完善。 为高质量服务"双碳"目标实现，做好绿色金融大文章，任德奇建议，需要在以下方面加大工作力度。具 体来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial development in China, particularly in Fujian, as a key component of the country's modernization and economic growth, rooted in the principles established during Xi Jinping's tenure in the region [3][5][12]. Financial Development Strategy - Fujian has initiated a financial empowerment strategy to enhance productivity, marking a significant step in its financial development [5]. - The financial sector is viewed as crucial for the overall modernization of China, with a focus on long-term planning and systemic approaches to financial development [5][10]. Historical Context and Innovations - The establishment of Industrial Bank in 1988 is highlighted as a pioneering move in China's financial reform, with local government support playing a vital role [7][8]. - Xi Jinping's early insights into financial governance laid the groundwork for a modern financial system in Fujian, emphasizing the need for a diverse financial structure [11][12]. Financial Support for Economic Development - Financial innovations, such as the "Lin e loan" in Ningde, demonstrate how financial tools can support rural economic development and resource management [17][19]. - The article discusses the role of financial services in supporting major infrastructure projects in Fujian, which have been essential for regional economic growth [23][27]. Risk Management and Financial Security - Fujian has maintained a strong record in managing financial risks, with a focus on preventing illegal fundraising activities and ensuring financial stability [31][32]. - The article outlines Xi Jinping's proactive measures in addressing financial crises, such as the restructuring of Huamin Company, which became a model for debt resolution [33][34]. Reform and Opening Up - The establishment of Xiamen International Bank as China's first Sino-foreign joint venture bank is presented as a significant milestone in financial reform and opening up [38][40]. - The article highlights ongoing efforts to deepen financial reforms and enhance international cooperation, reflecting China's commitment to a more open financial system [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry aims to play a crucial role in green finance by becoming a resilient recoverer of disaster risks, an important governor of environmental externalities, and a long-term investor in the green economy [1][2]. Group 1: Resilience to Disaster Risks - The insurance sector plans to enhance the policy standards and product systems for catastrophe insurance, focusing on developing a catastrophe risk quantification model suitable for China's disaster scenarios [1]. - There is an intention to strengthen the operational mechanism of the catastrophe insurance community and promote comprehensive multi-disaster catastrophe insurance [1]. Group 2: Governance of Environmental Externalities - Positive incentives will be created through the development of green insurance products such as new energy vehicle insurance and green building insurance, establishing a compensation mechanism for positive externalities [1]. - Negative constraints will be implemented via environmental pollution liability insurance, using rate levers to increase operational costs for high-emission enterprises, thereby establishing a corrective mechanism [1]. - The company plans to enrich the green insurance product system, focusing on ecological environment quality improvement and biodiversity protection, while exploring green insurance rate adjustment mechanisms [1]. Group 3: Long-term Investment in Green Economy - The insurance industry is set to become a long-term investor in the green economy, with investment scale exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2024 for green development [1]. - Innovative insurance solutions will be utilized to mitigate negative financial impacts from uncertainties, attracting more social capital into green low-carbon industries [1][2]. - Future initiatives include conducting carbon emission assessments for investment portfolios and exploring financing evaluations based on carbon performance to reduce asset portfolio carbon intensity [2].

三是加快基础设施建设。持续提升企业信息披露质量，增强碳核算能力，强化碳足迹管理。在推动产品 创新、助力企业降低运营成本的同时，有效防范 "洗绿""漂绿" 风险。 值得一提的是，任德奇还透露交通银行正在牵头制定国家层面的全国水上运输业的转型标准，这项工作 对于碳排放较高的行业来说意义重大。 其次，任德奇表示，支持绿色低碳发展的价格发现功能未得到充分发挥，在鼓励高碳企业降碳产品创新 和市场机制方面存在不足。此外，碳市场价格发现功能关联的期货、期权等产品稀缺，这些因素共同制 约了我国碳价格机制的形成，不利于更好地引导企业减排。 展望未来，任德奇认为要在以下几个方面着重发力。 一是完善政策标准。强化金融政策与产业政策的协同配合，建议尽快出台国家层面的转型金融标准，实 现对重点高碳行业的充分覆盖，为符合国家产业政策导向的企业提供有力支持。 二是加强产品创新。推进碳市场建设进程，扩大参与碳市场的经营机构主体范围，加大产品创新力度， 丰富期货、期权等碳经营产品的种类，构建完善的产品定价激励约束机制，助力企业降碳工作。 新华财经上海6月19日电（魏雨田刘子萌）如何高质量服务"双碳"目标实现，做好绿色金融大文章？6月 19日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector is undergoing profound changes driven by the dual context of global "dual carbon" goals and the digital technology revolution, with sustainable finance focusing on ESG becoming a focal point for global financial innovation [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2025 Shanghai Business School International Finance Academic Conference (SBSICF) and the sixth International Scholar "Shangshang" Forum were held in Shanghai, attracting over a hundred experts and scholars from universities and research institutions in the US, Australia, and China [1] - The conference centered on the theme of "New Developments in Behavioral Finance and Sustainable Finance," aiming to provide a platform for scholars and industry professionals to exchange ideas and discuss the latest research findings and economic policy implementations [1] Group 2: Key Presentations and Discussions - Dr. Cui Kailong, Senior Vice President of a data technology company, delivered a special presentation on "Data Assets and Industrial Digital Transformation," emphasizing the higher demands of the digital economy on financial system innovation and the new opportunities provided by artificial intelligence technology for fintech [2] - Notable speakers included Professor Brian Bruce, Director of the Investment Research Center in the US, and Professor Paresh Narayan from Monash University, who contributed to discussions on corporate governance and carbon emissions, revealing significant impacts of executive family background on corporate carbon reduction decisions [3] Group 3: Research Findings and Policy Implications - Scholars highlighted that standardized information disclosure can reduce stock price volatility and enhance capital market pricing efficiency, while companies with good ESG performance can lower their suppliers' debt financing costs, providing a basis for policy formulation [3] - Discussions also covered the effects of environmental judicial reforms and bankruptcy enforcement reforms on corporate cross-regional investments and technological entrepreneurship, offering insights into the practical effectiveness of these reforms [3][4] Group 4: Future Directions - The conference facilitated interdisciplinary dialogue, promoting the deep integration of financial theory and Chinese practice, with a focus on behavioral finance, climate risk measurement, green finance innovation, and ESG investment strategies [4] - The Shanghai Business School's Financial Research Institute plans to continue focusing on "dual carbon" strategies and digital finance frontiers, aiming to cultivate innovative talents with social responsibility and professional skills to contribute to global financial sustainability [4]