Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚全世界都在等待美股盘后英伟达公布的最新财报，以及美联储的最新会议纪要！ 一起看看海外市场的表现！ Main Street Research的首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特表示："英伟达的财报不仅对公司本身至关重要，也可能对整个股市起到提振作用，能让投资者重 新聚焦人工智能的潜力，而非华盛顿方面关于关税和税收的消息。" 投资者将关注基于英伟达最新Blackwell芯片的计算系统供应情况及其利润率表现。美国对中国出口先进半导体的限制可能使英伟达的财报发布变得 更复杂。此外，英伟达也正面临质疑，即对人工智能的巨额投资是否合理，同时其产品已成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点之一。 德默特补充说："我们认为，人工智能的故事和发展仍在持续，但受到了贸易担忧和美国政策的干扰。人工智能已被证明可以提升全球经济及企业 的生产力，而我们目前仅处于这个周期的早期阶段。在我们看来，贸易政策可能会减缓经济增长，但人工智能带来的生产力提升应能抵消部分阻 力。" 美股下跌 5月28日晚间，美股开盘之后，三大指数震荡，持续下跌。 英伟达是本季度"七巨头"中最后一家公布财报的公司，作为全球市值最高的芯片制造商，它的表现将成为本轮财报季行情的终 ...

以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 当行业进入收缩期，大多数企业无法独善其身。 文 丨 赵宇 编辑 丨 龚方毅 最近几年，全球汽车产业开始面临电动化趋势放缓、需求萎缩、市场竞争加剧以及国际贸易环境不稳 定等一系列挑战。为应对挑战，多数海外汽车品牌不得不采取裁员、收缩业务等措施，以期实现降本 增效，等待新一轮产业扩张周期的到来。 我们通过梳理近一年海外车企的裁员信息发现：在头部海外车企和供应商已公布的裁员计划中，累计 涉及的员工总数已接近 10 万人，中国、北美、欧洲、日本等全球主要汽车市场均有涉及。 | 公司名称 | 裁员时间 | 涉及人数 | 裁员原因 | 涉及部门/地区 | 后续计划 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大众 | 2030年前 | 计划裁员3.5万人, | 成本削减、竞争加剧、 | 绝大部分 | 推进成本削减; | | | | 已裁7000人 | 排放罚款等 | 位于德国 | 暂不关闭德国工 | | 奔驰 | 2024年2月 | 中国区15%员工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks must respond "relatively strongly" when inflation deviates from targets, focusing on avoiding measures where "the cost of errors far exceeds the benefits" rather than seeking perfect solutions [1] Group 1: Central Bank Responses - Central banks need to avoid allowing inflation expectations to deviate from their targets, as persistent inflation could become permanent [1] - It is crucial for central banks to anchor long-term inflation expectations and ensure short-term expectations perform well to bring public perception of future price trends back to target levels within "a few years" [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Trade Policies - President Trump's comprehensive tariffs and erratic trade policies complicate the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation while avoiding excessive cooling of the already impacted U.S. economy [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December, awaiting clearer information on the economic and price impacts of Trump's tariffs [2] Group 3: Market Stability - Despite significant market shocks and volatility following Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs, there has not been a "collapse" in the financial markets [2] - There has been substantial capital flow between buyers and sellers, indicating that the market is functioning well [3] - The level of reserves in the U.S. is deemed "clearly sufficient," providing a buffer against unforeseen shocks [3]

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]

报告强调，企业在评估需求前景时表现出明显谨慎态度，并将重点转向成本削减，这直接反映了特朗普贸易政策带来的不确定性冲击。与此同 时，国会正在辩论的税收立法也让企业处于观望状态，进一步抑制了投资冲动。 剔除波动性较大的运输设备，4月份耐用品订单环比增长0.2%，好于市场持平的预期。 作为衡量企业设备投资的非波动性指标，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）上月下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌幅，此前3月份的 数据向上修正为增长0.3%。 由于订单可能被取消，美国政府在计算国内生产总值（GDP）时更侧重于出货量数据，因为出货量反映了实际支付的发生。数据显示，4月份核心 资本货物出货量下降0.1%。 受商用飞机订单锐减拖累，美国4月份耐用品订单超预期下滑，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌 幅。在关税和税收政策不确定性的影响下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美国4月耐用品订单环比初值暴跌6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由9.20%修正为7.50%。 波动性较大的商用飞机订单在4月份暴跌51.5%，此前3月份有所增长。波音公司表示，4月份仅收到8 ...

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以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 朱迪 王泽辉 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 本次调研时间为5月下旬，走访了广西南宁、防城港、钦州、北海等地，涉及企业包括上游油厂及中游贸易商，主要为了探究当地及全国范围 内油脂油料市场的供需环境，及贸易政策不确定环境下，上中下游的采购、销售及备货节奏。 01 广西油脂油料市场总结 1.2油料市场情况 从本次调研情况来看，未来进口菜籽供应整体偏紧，目前油厂买船积极性差，受贸易关税相关政策影响，工厂担忧未来政策变化，谨 慎采购，少量的几条船均来自加拿大，暂未启动其他国家的菜籽采购。但国内进口颗粒粕库存相对充裕，预计3季度市场菜粕供应宽 松。8、9、10月菜粕将迎来水产旺季，或会有一波库存消化驱动，目前终端提货尚可，叠加4、5月豆粕基差高位，菜粕替代增加， 油厂菜粕库存目前偏低。而考虑到未来菜籽供应趋紧，油厂卖货并不激进，低价有挺价情绪。 巴西大豆目前陆陆续续到港中，但因前期到港衔接不佳及通关限制，油厂开机持续低位，豆粕建库过程缓慢。短期豆粕库存压力不 大，按照目前到货节奏 ...

Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) has strengthened against the US Dollar, breaking the psychological barrier of 30 NTD per USD, with less than 1% remaining to reach a nearly 30-year high [1][3] - The appreciation of the NTD is attributed to multiple factors including a weakening US Dollar index, trade policy negotiations, and a shift in Taiwan's monetary policy [1][3] - Year-to-date, the NTD has appreciated by 9.8%, leading among emerging market currencies in Asia, with current trading around 29.84 NTD per USD [3] Group 2 - Taiwan's central bank has indicated a policy shift, stating it will not adhere to a specific exchange rate level, allowing for a strategic appreciation of the NTD [4] - Analysts suggest that if the US Dollar index falls below the technical support level of 104, the NTD could challenge the 29.5 NTD per USD range, although caution is advised regarding potential counter-cyclical adjustments by Taiwan's monetary authorities [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Taiwan's semiconductor export data, as these factors may influence future exchange rate movements [4]

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