分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant disagreement among its members regarding the future outlook, with seven members favoring either one more cut or no cuts, while nine members support two additional cuts [2][5][7] - The current economic environment presents a two-sided risk, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers, as typically weak labor markets coincide with low inflation and strong labor markets raise inflation concerns [4][7] - The Fed Chair indicated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, emphasizing the need to assess incoming data before making further cuts [3][6][7] 分组2 - The futures market appears to be pricing in two additional rate cuts, reflecting investor sentiment about the Fed's future actions [5][6] - There is a level of uncertainty reintroduced into the market, as the Fed Chair acknowledged the lack of clear paths forward, which may affect investor confidence [7][11] - The Fed is facing unprecedented challenges on both sides of its mandate, indicating a complex economic landscape that requires careful navigation [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The preliminary benchmark revisions indicated a decrease of 911,000 jobs, marking the first negative revisions since December 2020, raising concerns about the reliability of data used by the Federal Reserve for interest rate decisions [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is aware of the issues related to low response rates and the challenges posed by the birth-death model, which complicates job creation data due to the dynamic nature of new businesses [3][4] - There is a need for higher response rates to reduce data volatility, which can be achieved by ensuring that data collection agencies have adequate resources [5] Group 2 - Job creation data tends to be less reliable in the first month due to low response rates, but improves significantly by the second and third months as more responses are collected [6] - If the benchmark data indicating that 51% of previously thought jobs were not actually there is accurate, it suggests a weaker job market entering the year, which could have influenced interest rate decisions if known earlier [7] - The current approach requires focusing on present data rather than past information, leading to timely actions based on the latest available data [8]

Market Overview - DJIA increased by 271 points or 0.59% to reach 46,029, while Nasdaq decreased by 76 points or 0.34% to 22,257, and S&P 500 traded at 6,603, down 3 points or 0.05% [2][4] - Anticipation of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is influencing market movements, with traders closely monitoring for indications of further cuts [4][5] Company Highlights - Workday saw a significant gain of 6.9% after Elliott Investment Management acquired a stake exceeding $2 billion and expressed support for the company's management, alongside an expansion of its share buyback program to $4 billion [2][4] - General Mills experienced a decline of 1.9% despite reporting higher-than-expected profits for the latest quarter, with revenue meeting forecasts [2][4] - RCI Hospitality Holdings fell by 10.2% following accusations of bribery and other crimes by New York's attorney general, impacting its operations in the strip club and sports bar sectors [3][4] Upcoming Events - Online ticket marketplace StubHub is set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "STUB," with shares priced at $23.50 in its initial public offering [3][4] Economic Indicators - Japan's Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.2% as exports to the U.S. fell by 13.8% in August compared to the previous year, attributed to tariffs on cars [5] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly decreased to 4.02% from 4.04% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with various currencies showing mixed trends against the US dollar, while key economic indicators and central bank decisions are influencing market sentiment. Group 1: US Dollar Developments - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks on the job market may indicate future policy directions [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that if President Trump views inflation as a problem, he would be open to interest rate hikes [2] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett anticipates economic growth rates exceeding 3% [2] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from 1.3% [2] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Movements - The euro against the US dollar reached a new high of 1.1878, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, with Governing Council member Escrivá emphasizing the need for flexibility amid ongoing uncertainty [4] - The ECB's Vice President Guindos stated that current interest rates are appropriate [5] Group 3: Canadian and Japanese Currency Insights - The swap market indicates a 93% probability of the Bank of Canada cutting rates, up from 87% prior to the CPI release [5] - Japan's auction of 20-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.00, the highest since 2020 [5] - The offshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently above the 200-period SMA at approximately 1.3480, indicating long-term bullish dominance [8] - The USD/JPY is fluctuating between the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands, with potential for a short-term bullish reversal if it breaks above the middle band [9] - The EUR/USD has a key support level at 1.1850, which may trigger buying interest if tested again [9] - The USD/CHF is currently below both the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum [9] - The AUD/USD has a significant support level at 0.6630, which could attract buying interest if approached [10] - The USD/CAD has a critical support level at 1.3680, which may also draw market attention if tested [10] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a press conference at 21:45 [11] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Chair Powell at 02:30 [11]

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks churned between gains and losses on Wednesday but ultimately remained near their record levels. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and hung near its all-time high set at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The swings came after the Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate for the first time this year. That move was no surprise for Wall Street, which was widely expecting it. More important was the set o ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions around whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point reduction, reflecting a divided sentiment among financial experts [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate surged to 4.3% in August, marking a four-year high, while non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, indicating economic weakness [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August remained at 2.7%, suggesting that inflation is not rapidly increasing, which provides room for a potential rate cut [3]. Key Signals to Monitor - Inflation trends: The core CPI is at 3.1%, and any sudden increase in prices could lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its stance on rate cuts [4]. - Employment market conditions: The rising number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits is nearing pandemic levels, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to act sooner [4]. - Trade policies: Potential tax increases proposed by former President Trump could lead to higher prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [4]. Market Sentiment - There are two prevailing views in the market: one group anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September, while a more aggressive faction, including UBS, predicts four consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed cautiously, likely starting with a 25 basis point cut to gauge the economic response before making further decisions [5]. Implications for Consumers - A potential rate cut could lead to lower mortgage rates, benefiting homeowners with existing loans [5]. - Gold prices are rising, nearing $3,600, driven by expectations of rate cuts, which may be advantageous for investors in precious metals [5]. - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index may prompt holders of dollar-denominated assets to consider diversifying their investments [5].

外界普遍预计，美联储将重启降息进程，因为美国就业市场正在发出警报信号。未来的宽松路径将受 到更多关注，一方面联邦公开市场委员会FOMC面临着政府方面的巨大压力，内部暗流涌动，另一 方面特朗普贸易政策的影响仍有待明朗，数据依赖立场是否会导致政策调整反应不及时冲击经济成为 焦点。 2025.09. 16 本文字数：2049，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间9月16日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 经济展望如何变化 8月以来，美联储两大职责——通胀和就业双双持续承压，物价持续上涨的同时，就业市场开始降 温。这种 "有毒组合" 让滞胀风险升温，也使美联储陷入各国央行可能面临的最棘手局面之一。 上周数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.9%，创下今年 1 月以来的最高增幅。剔 除波动较大的食品和能源品类后，核心CPI同比增速在3.1%，显著高于美联储2%的通胀目标。 就业市场的裂缝更受到关注。过去一周，美国初请失业金人数升至2021年以来最高水平，续请失业 金人数则持续处于疫情以来高位，显示求职者找到就业岗位所需时间有所延迟。此前8月非农就业报 告显示，就业 ...

鲍威尔是否会释放连续降息信号。 当地时间9月16日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预计，美联储将重启降息进程，因为美国就业市场正在发出警报信号。未来的宽松路径将受到 更多关注，一方面联邦公开市场委员会FOMC面临着政府方面的巨大压力，内部暗流涌动，另一方面特 朗普贸易政策的影响仍有待明朗，数据依赖立场是否会导致政策调整反应不及时冲击经济成为焦点。 经济展望如何变化 8月以来，美联储两大职责——通胀和就业双双持续承压，物价持续上涨的同时，就业市场开始降温。 这种 "有毒组合" 让滞胀风险升温，也使美联储陷入各国央行可能面临的最棘手局面之一。 就业市场的裂缝更受到关注。过去一周，美国初请失业金人数升至2021年以来最高水平，续请失业金人 数则持续处于疫情以来高位，显示求职者找到就业岗位所需时间有所延迟。此前8月非农就业报告显 示，就业岗位新增几乎陷入停滞，失业率攀升至4.3%。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）本月表示，在展现多年韧性后，美国经济目前正显现出一些承压迹象，具体 表现为国内需求放缓、就业增长减速。IMF发言人科扎克（Julie Kozack）指出，美国通胀正朝着美联 储 2% ...

Brandywine Global Investment Management债券投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示："我的直觉告诉我是25基点。问题在于美联储在声明中是否会更多强调就 业而非通胀。" 本周FOMC利率决议，市场确信美联储至少降息25个基点，但这已经无法满足激进预期，投资者已经为延续至2026年的一系列降息进行了定价。 目前金融市场普遍倾向于认为， 就业形势的担忧将在本周利率决议中占据主导地位，美联储将传达鸽派基调。 市场已消化了美联储为避免经济衰退而将在 2026年前持续降息的预期，这种乐观情绪推动美债收益率跌至数月低位，美股屡创新高。 在债券市场，基准10年期美债收益率接近4月以来最低水平，标普500指数逼近历史高位，纳斯达克100指数刚刚录得一年多来最长连涨纪录。 然而，由于通胀水平仍高于目标，关税对价格的影响仍在发酵， 分析认为，美联储主席鲍威尔及其他官员可能发出信号，暗示投资者过于激进，从而引发资产 价格的重新定价。鲍威尔讲话和美联储官员利率预测"点阵图"是本次决议的关注重点。 25基点几成定局，50基点存在小概率可能 市场对本周三美联储降息25基点的预期已接近100%确定性 ...

Group 1 - The recent labor market data indicates a slowdown, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, which has overshadowed sticky inflation data [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.2% in July, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Wall Street strategists believe the Federal Reserve faces a complex decision regarding interest rates due to the dual challenges of a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Despite concerns about the economy and labor market, strategists remain optimistic that artificial intelligence will drive a bull market in stocks through 2026 [4] - Oracle's strong AI backlog surprised investors, highlighting the strength of the technology sector [5] - UBS's global equity head forecasts further upside for the U.S. stock market, with a target of 6,600 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025 and 6,800 by mid-2026, driven by strong tech earnings and anticipated Fed rate cuts [5]