Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 414.9 billion, with a total of CNY 300 billion in net injections from reverse repos throughout the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.15 trillion, with a notable drop on Friday[3] - The DR001 rate remained above 1.3%, indicating that expectations for a lower bound adjustment have not materialized[3] Credit and Financing Trends - New social financing in July was only CNY 1.1 trillion, significantly lower than the expected CNY 1.5 trillion, with a notable reliance on government bonds and direct corporate financing[3] - July saw the first negative growth in credit since 2005, with a decline of CNY 500 billion, despite a surge in bill financing exceeding CNY 800 billion[3] - The central bank's loan interest rates are expected to show a reduced year-on-year decline in Q3 due to lower base effects[3] Government Debt and Issuance - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was CNY 410.4 billion, expected to decrease to CNY 294.1 billion next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached CNY 575.9 billion, with special bonds at CNY 28.369 trillion[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to accelerate, with a total of CNY 3.692 billion expected next week[4] Market Sentiment and Risks - The bond market showed weakness, with a notable reduction in non-bank financial institutions' holdings of certificates of deposit and financial bonds[3] - The central bank's cautious stance on further easing is reflected in its emphasis on preventing "capital turnover" and improving fund utilization efficiency[3] - Potential risks include monetary policy not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★ [1] - Aluminum: ★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, presenting a long - term bullish trend. Short - term gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [1][3][4]. - Copper is expected to strengthen due to lower - than - expected US inflation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term bullish outlook. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [1][8]. - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with the center of gravity rising as Shanghai zinc follows the external market. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [1][15]. - Nickel prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range is [121000 - 123500] [1][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a price range of [81000 - 86000] [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the delay of Sino - US tariffs by 90 days and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and US data supporting significant interest rate cuts, gold and silver prices declined and then consolidated [2]. Basic Logic - US tariff revenue reached a new high, but the government budget deficit still expanded. Inflation data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the September interest rate cut expectation rising to 95% and the annual interest rate cut expectation rising to 2.48 times. The US government pressured for interest rate cuts. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold may find support around 770 in the short - term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's trading range is 9100 - 9300, and long positions can be entered after the price stops falling. Long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper gapped down overnight and faced resistance during the rebound [7]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally, the current refined copper production is at a high level. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. LME copper inventory build - up has slowed, and domestic social copper inventory is tight [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, it is recommended to hold long positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review - London zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and Shanghai zinc followed the upward trend [10]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. The demand side is affected by factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic off - season, leading to a decline in the expected start - up rate of galvanized enterprises. Domestic zinc inventory is building up, while overseas London zinc warehouse receipts are being depleted, posing a risk of a soft squeeze [10]. Strategy Recommendation - With the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, Shanghai zinc will follow the external market in the short - term, with the center of gravity rising. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices had a short - term rebound, and alumina had a rebound and then a decline [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment is positive. The cost has decreased, inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is stable, but there are some disturbances in domestic bauxite. Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to remain loose [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the short - term rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices had a short - term rebound, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production has increased. Stainless steel production cuts have led to some inventory reduction, but overall, there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [121000 - 123500] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, dropping more than 6000 points from the high [21]. Industrial Logic - Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, the total inventory has only increased by less than 700 tons, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about supply disruptions, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. From a capital perspective, the 09 contract has a high open interest but a low warehouse receipt volume [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the continued speculation about supply disruptions, it is recommended to hold long positions in the range of [81000 - 86000] [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The Politburo meeting in July reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which increased the expectation of future easing. Since August, bond futures have rebounded after hitting the bottom. Due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data in the first half of the year, the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged overseas, and the rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the necessity and possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term are low. However, as the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. In general, bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: slightly bullish; overall view: volatile. Core logic: There is an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: slightly bullish; medium - term view: volatile; reference view: volatile. Core logic: Bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The July Politburo meeting increased the expectation of future easing, and bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom in August. The short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low, and the rise of the market interest rate is limited. Bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, marking the third rate cut this year, with a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2023 [1] - The RBA emphasizes that maintaining price stability and full employment are its primary objectives, noting a decline in underlying inflation to around the midpoint of the 2-3% range and a slight easing in the labor market [1] - A recent survey indicated that 31 out of 34 experts predicted the rate cut, with AMP's Deputy Chief Economist suggesting that the moderate quarterly inflation data warranted the decision [1] Group 2 - The RBA highlighted the lagging effects of recent monetary policy easing and the uncertainty surrounding corporate pricing decisions, alongside global economic uncertainties that could pressure Australia's economic activity and inflation [2] - The decision comes at a delicate moment in global policy shifts, with potential implications for the Australian dollar, investor expectations, and the broader economic environment due to changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance [2]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, marking a two-year low, due to slowing inflation and a loosening labor market [1] - The RBA's decision aligns with market expectations, following a previous hold in July that surprised markets amid rising unemployment and expected inflation decline [1][2] - The RBA remains cautious about further easing policies despite the recent rate cut, citing high uncertainty regarding overall demand and potential supply [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that overall inflation fell to 2.1% in the June quarter, with core inflation at a three-year low of 2.7%, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3% [2] - The effects of previous rate cuts in February and May are becoming evident, with consumer spending beginning to rise due to falling inflation and prior tax cuts [2] - The RBA has revised down its economic growth expectations due to persistent productivity issues but still anticipates a stabilization in the labor market [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming week will be on the monetary policy directions of major economies, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Federal Reserve, with expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates and for the PBOC to potentially ease its monetary policy [1][2] - The current priority for China is to stabilize economic growth, which is expected to lead to further easing of monetary policy despite the Fed's tightening [2][3] - Recent financial data for February indicates that social financing and new RMB loans fell short of market expectations, highlighting the need for increased credit support to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [2][3] Group 2 - There is a growing likelihood of the PBOC implementing further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to achieve the goal of credit expansion [3][4] - Experts suggest that the timing of potential interest rate cuts remains debated, with some advocating for action before the Fed's March meeting to assert China's monetary policy independence [4][5] - Future interest rate cuts may occur multiple times, with expectations for the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to decrease by 20 basis points [5] Group 3 - Structural monetary policies are expected to play a significant role in supporting the real economy, with a focus on small and micro enterprises, green financing, and regions with slow credit growth [6] - The PBOC is anticipated to increase the use of structural policy tools, optimizing loan allocation towards targeted sectors [6] - Estimates suggest that the PBOC's support for inclusive small and micro loans could reach approximately 28.7 billion RMB this year, with additional support for green credit expected to be around 364.1 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of financial bonds is a crucial channel for banks to supplement medium- and long-term liquidity capital, enhancing their capital strength and ability to serve the real economy while mitigating financial risks [1] Group 1: Financial Bond Issuance Overview - In the first quarter of this year, the number of financial bonds issued by commercial banks saw a significant year-on-year increase, with 60 banks successfully issuing bonds totaling 699.05 billion yuan [1] - Specifically, 58 banks issued financial bonds amounting to 627.55 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing an 81.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] - City commercial banks accounted for the largest share of issuances, with 30 banks participating, followed by rural commercial banks with 15 issuances [1] Group 2: Types and Trends of Financial Bonds - The largest portion of financial bonds issued in the first quarter was secondary capital bonds, totaling 198.75 billion yuan [2] - Other types of bonds issued included ordinary financial bonds (170.5 billion yuan), special bonds for small and micro enterprises (116 billion yuan), perpetual bonds (88 billion yuan), green special bonds (49.4 billion yuan), and agricultural-related special bonds (4.4 billion yuan) [2] Group 3: Reasons for Preference of Secondary Capital Bonds - Secondary capital bonds are favored by banks, especially smaller ones, due to their lower issuance thresholds and higher interest rates compared to ordinary financial bonds [3] - However, banks are encouraged to enhance internal capital replenishment through strategies such as optimizing business structures and adjusting dividend policies to increase profit retention [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a strong market expectation for monetary policy easing, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second quarter, which may further release long-term funds and lower financing costs [3] - Future credit resources from commercial banks are likely to be directed more towards small and micro enterprises, as well as green and agricultural sectors, indicating a potential acceleration in financial bond issuance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has continued its dovish stance by cutting the cash rate to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut of the year amid a bleak economic growth outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The RBA has significantly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, reflecting a more severe economic landscape [5]. - The long-term productivity growth assumption has been reduced from 1.0% to 0.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy's growth capacity from 2.25% to 2.0% [5]. - The report attributes the lowered growth expectations to weaker-than-expected public demand growth at the beginning of 2025 [5]. Inflation and Labor Market - Core inflation has eased to 2.7%, nearing the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, providing room for monetary policy easing [7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level in four years, indicating initial signs of market cooling [7]. - Despite the rising unemployment, the RBA forecasts that the rate will remain stable at 4.3% until the end of 2027, suggesting a complex labor market scenario [7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The RBA's current monetary policy is perceived as still restrictive, with expectations of further easing in the future [8]. - Market predictions suggest a total rate cut of 80 basis points over the next year, bringing the cash rate down to a range of 2.85% to 3.1% [8]. - Some analysts predict a more aggressive approach, forecasting a potential 100 basis points cut within the next 12 months [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the expectation of continued moderate monetary policy, with a likelihood of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, potentially by 10 basis points, alongside structural support for the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with a significant probability of interest rate cuts in Q4 [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has recently increased from 1.65% to 1.75%, indicating a slight recovery in the economic fundamentals [1] Fiscal Policy - There is considerable room for issuing government bonds and ultra-long special government bonds in the second half of the year, with an acceleration in the issuance of local government special bonds focusing on local debt and land acquisition [1] Investment Opportunity - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) has shown strong historical performance, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since inception [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns for each of the seven complete natural years since its establishment, making it a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1] Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF allows T+0 trading, enabling same-day buying and selling, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market [2] - It features low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency [3] - The ETF provides transparency with daily published PCF lists [4] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing access to funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Through multiple - dimensional calculations such as treasury bond futures trends, new local bond issuance pricing, and historical experience of China Development Bank bond implicit tax rates, the possible tax rate space after the new bond interest VAT regulation may be significantly lower than 6% [3][38]. - To cooperate with the transition period at the initial stage of the implementation of the new VAT regulation, monetary policy is expected to remain loose in the short - term [3][38]. - The bond market may still be supported in the short - term, but the odds space is limited, and it may face headwinds in the medium - term [4][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Tax Rate Trading Perspective - The implicit trading VAT rate of treasury bond futures may be between 0.9% - 3.1%. After the new VAT regulation was announced on August 1, 2025, the price changes of TS/TF/T 2063 contracts largely reflected the impact of the new regulation, considering the third - quarter treasury bond issuance plan and futures contract maturity dates [10][14]. 3.2 Latest Local Bond Issuance Pricing Perspective - The implicit VAT rate of local bond issuance pricing may be between 0.9% - 3.2%. Based on the yield levels of tax - free old bonds in the same region and similar maturities as a benchmark, the implicit VAT rate of the new local bonds issued on August 8, 2025, was estimated [18][23]. 3.3 China Development Bank Bond Historical Experience Perspective - From the historical experience of China Development Bank bonds, the subsequent implicit VAT rate may be between 0.7% - 3.1%. Although China Development Bank bonds are subject to a 25% income tax on interest income, the implicit tax rate is often much lower than 25% due to trading advantages, and has mostly been between 3% - 13% in recent years [27][29]. 3.4 Monetary Policy Outlook - **Static Calculation**: From a static perspective, assuming that VAT is fully borne by investors, the new VAT regulation may bring about 230 billion yuan in fiscal revenue in a stable state. The average annual new fiscal revenue is about 2.71 billion yuan [32][34]. - **Need for Monetary Policy Coordination**: From a dynamic perspective, while the fiscal revenue increases due to VAT, the interest - payment cost also rises to some extent. Therefore, to reduce fiscal costs and enhance tax effects, monetary policy is expected to remain loose in the short - term [37]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market. The short - to medium - term bonds may perform steadily, and the yield curve may steepen. The 10 - year treasury bond around 1.7% may not be cost - effective. The pressure in August may not be significant, but the transition between the third and fourth quarters may be a risk window [6][40].