Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].

这样三季度出口同比为6.6%，符合预期。在前期报告《出口增速为何延续韧性》中，我们指出即便三季度环比为季节性低点的1.0%，则三季度同 比依然有5.98%。四季度变为高基数，在最新数据下简单测算，假如四季度环比为过去四年环比季节性均值的1.9%，则四季度出口同比为3.6%， 2025年全年同比为5.5%。 2025年一季度至三季度出口同比分别为5.6%、6.2%、6.6%，逐步有所上行。 2025年前三季度出口累计同比为6.1%。 9月出口同比增长8.3%，依然维持在高位。其中包含着去年同期基数偏低的贡献，环比的2.1%基本持平季节性，过去5年、过去20年9月的环比季 节性均值分别为2.2%、2.1%。出口的韧性表现和高频数据吻合，9月集装箱吞吐量同比较高，PMI新出口订单指数亦环比上行。 在前期报告《高频数据下的9月经济：数量篇》中，我们指出9月高频数据的积极线索是集装箱吞吐量依旧高增。9月1日-9月28日，国内港口完成 集装箱吞吐量均值同比7.3%（8月同比6.2%），港口完成货物吞吐量均值同比7.4%（8月同比5.8%）。 在前期报告《9月PMI的7个信号》中，我们指出：9月新出口订单指数为47.8，高 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 9月出口同比增长8.3%，依然维持在高位。其中包含着去年同期基数偏低的贡献，环比的2.1%基本持平季节 性，过去5年、过去20年9月的环比季节性均值分别为2.2%、2.1%。出口的韧性表现和高频数据吻合，9月集装箱吞 吐量同比较高，PMI新出口订单指数亦环比上行。 第二， 这样三季度出口同比为6.6%，符合预期。在前期报告《出口增速为何延续韧性》中，我们指出即便三季度环 比为季节性低点的1.0%，则三季度同比依然有5.98%。四季度变为高基数，在最新数据下简单测算，假如四季度环 比为过去四年环比季节性均值的1.9%，则四季度出口同比为3.6%，2025年全年同比为5.5%。 第三， 从历史数据看中国出口与全球出口：2000-2011年属于全球化加速阶段的"双高"，中国出口平均增速更是要 高于全球1倍。2012-2019年属于"双低"，其中2016-2018年中国出口增速慢于全球。2020-2023年属特定贸易 环境下的高波动，其中前两年海外供应能力较差，中国出口增速快于整体，后两年略慢于整体。2024-2025年是新 的阶段，整体增速 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 十一假期期间黄金价格再创新高。伦敦现货金价从 9 月 30 日的 3825.3 美元 / 盎司升至 10 月 6 日的 3949.45 美元 / 盎司。本轮金价上涨从 8 月第 四周开始，主要由美联储货币政策预期变化、美国政策不确定性上升、央行购金等多重因素共同推动。向后看，三个逻辑暂未变化：其一，主要经济体财政赤字率 仍在高位；其二，央行购金的结构性需求构成支撑， ETF 资金在利率下行周期中亦形成新增边际买盘；其三，全球宏观不确定性强化资产配置多元化趋势 。 第二， 美国政府自 10 月初起陷入"关门"状态，白宫与国会未能就预算拨款达成一致为主要背景。这是美国七年来首次政府全面停摆。短期来看，经济数据发布 将被迫中断，联邦雇员停薪休假可能造成局部消费下滑。美国国会预算办公室估计每日约有 75 万名政府雇员被迫停薪休假，这一数字远高于 2018-2019 年 38 万人的水平 。 第三， 海外经济方面，欧央行行长拉加德表示欧元区在面对不确定性的情况下表现良好，增长所面临的阻力明年将会消退，通胀接近 2 ...

Group 1 - Central Huijin Investment and its subsidiaries held stock ETFs worth 1.28 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of last year [1][2] - The number of stock ETFs held by Central Huijin increased to 1.58 times compared to the end of last year, with multiple broad-based ETFs receiving over 1 billion shares in increases [1][2] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of listed companies in the market reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [2] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 3.00 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's total [2] Group 3 - BYD reported a net profit of 15.51 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.79% [8] - Huawei's revenue for the first half of the year reached 427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit decreased by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [9] - Tianqi Lithium Industries announced a net profit of 84.41 million yuan for the first half of the year, marking a return to profitability [10]

Group 1 - Central Huijin Investment and its subsidiaries hold a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs as of June 30, 2025, representing an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of last year [2][4] - The number of stock ETFs held by Central Huijin has increased to 1.58 times that of the end of last year, with multiple broad-based ETFs receiving over 1 billion shares in additional purchases [2][4] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total operating revenue of listed companies in the market reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [4] - The net profit for the first half of the year was 3.00 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's overall growth rate [4] Group 3 - BYD reported a net profit of 15.51 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.79% [9] - Huawei announced a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year growth of 3.94%, while net profit decreased by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [10] - Tianshan Lithium Industry reported a net profit of 84.41 million yuan for the first half of the year, achieving a turnaround from losses [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in the investment landscape, particularly focusing on the actions of central financial institutions and key companies in various sectors, including semiconductor, electric vehicles, and financial markets. Group 1: Central Financial Institutions - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held stock ETFs worth 1.28 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of last year [2][3] - The number of stock ETFs held by Central Huijin at the end of June is 1.58 times that of the end of last year, with several broad-based ETFs receiving over 10 billion shares in increases [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - On August 30, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson commented on the U.S. revoking the "validated end-user" authorization for three semiconductor companies in China, stating that this action would negatively impact the global semiconductor supply chain [5] Group 3: Company Earnings and Announcements - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of listed companies reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, with a second-quarter revenue of 18.11 trillion yuan, up 0.43% year-on-year and 7.15% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit for the first half of the year was 3.00 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [5] - BYD reported a net profit of 15.51 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.79% [12] - Huawei announced a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit decreased by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [13] - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 3 to 3.3 billion yuan [11] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Developments - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented, allowing a maximum weight of 55 kg for lithium battery models and increasing the weight limit for lead-acid battery models from 55 kg to 63 kg [5] - WeChat's "Coral Security" announced measures against accounts providing illegal stock recommendation services, indicating a crackdown on misleading financial information [6]

Core Viewpoint - The export growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.8%, roughly in line with last year's annual growth rate, with March showing a significant increase of 12.4% year-on-year, indicating strong export performance despite seasonal factors [1][7]. Group 1: Export Performance - In March, exports to India, Africa, and Latin America saw growth rates exceeding 20%, contributing to a strong overall performance [2][8]. - The cumulative export growth rates for Q1 2025 were notably high for India (13.8%), Africa (11.3%), and Latin America (9.6%), while exports to the U.S. grew by 4.5%, accounting for 13.5% of total exports, a decrease from 14.7% in the previous year [2][8]. Group 2: Export Composition - High-tech products had a year-on-year export growth of 7.3% in March, while home appliances grew by 12.5%, and labor-intensive products collectively saw a growth of 10.1% [3][9]. - China's export competitiveness spans high, medium, and low-end products, attributed to factors such as engineer dividends, economies of scale, and supply chain efficiency [3][10]. Group 3: Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive sector, which accounted for 3.3% of exports last year, experienced a slowdown with a growth rate of only 2.2% in Q1 2025, down from double-digit growth in previous years [4][11]. - The decline in automotive exports is linked to increased market penetration overseas and fluctuations in the global trade environment, particularly affecting exports to Europe [4][11]. Group 4: Electronics and Tariff Implications - Exports of electronic products, including smartphones and integrated circuits, grew by 4.8% in March, with a cumulative growth of 6.0% for Q1 2025 [5][13]. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced exemptions for certain electronic products from tariffs, although the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies poses ongoing risks for exports [5][14]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - The strong export performance in Q1 2025 is seen as a positive start, but the impact of U.S. tariffs, which began in early April, will need to be monitored in the following quarters [6][15]. - Systematic demand-side support is crucial for stabilizing economic growth, particularly through consumer spending and effective local investment [6][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current economic situation, focusing on the CPI and PPI data for March, indicating a slight improvement in CPI but a continued decline in PPI, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [1][4][5] - In March, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, an improvement from -0.7% in the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -2.5%, down from -2.2% [1][4] - The simulated deflation index, based on the weighted contributions of CPI and PPI, is approximately -1.06%, indicating a persistent low price level since October of the previous year [1][4] Group 2 - Energy and food prices are identified as the main contributors to the downward trend in inflation, with core CPI showing zero growth month-on-month in March [1][2] - Pork prices have been in a downward adjustment cycle since late January, and fuel prices for transportation have also decreased significantly [1][6] - Positive signals in CPI include a 2.8% month-on-month increase in household appliance prices, stabilization in the rental market, and seasonal increases in alcohol prices post-holiday [1][6][7] Group 3 - The PPI in March showed a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, with oil and coal prices being the primary downward forces [2][7] - The article notes that the impact of global trade tariffs is expected to continue affecting commodity prices, which will have implications for future CPI and PPI [2][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of price stability, with recent policies aimed at strengthening price governance mechanisms [3][9] Group 4 - Historical experience suggests that in response to external shocks like tariffs, policies typically focus first on stabilizing liquidity before addressing the fundamental economic conditions [10] - The central bank has indicated readiness to provide sufficient re-lending support to stabilize liquidity, which is seen as a "expectation anchor" for the market [10] - Key areas of focus for economic resilience include consumer spending, real estate investment, and maintaining supply-demand balance and profit margins in the corporate sector [10]