作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 谁也没有想到，友谊的小船说翻就翻！ 如果换成普通人，估计无人在意，但两人，偏偏是这个世界上最牛的两个人，一个全世界最有权的人 --美国总统特朗普，一个是全世界最有钱 的人--特斯拉老板马斯克。 因为公开打嘴炮，特斯拉股价单日暴跌 14%，市值一夜蒸发1525亿美元，跌破1万亿美元市值。 这两个一直占据全球政治、经济、科技，以及八卦版面的人物，毫无疑问给足了流量，博主们自然是喜欢得不得了。 不过，作为正经且严肃的财经作者，咱们今天可不是来说两人之间的八卦，而是要探讨一个重要的投资问题： 特斯拉，能抄底吗？ 过山车 01 从去年下半年到现在，美股 7姐妹中，真的没有哪一家公司的股价走势，如特斯拉这般波动。 涨的时候，一个月就可以轻轻松松翻倍；跌的时候，一个月又没了一半。上落都是几千亿美金，折合人民币数万亿，等于不止一个茅台了。 走势堪称过山车，跌宕起伏之余，心脏承受力小一点，恐怕都无法应对。 不过，也必须承认， 这种高波动也带来了不少交易机会， 包括做多和做空，如果是风格激进的投资者，采用衍生品工具做交易，方向又对的 话，收益率相信非 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that uncertainty in trade policies will negatively impact investment and exports [1]

潜台词：都投了些啥破公司？ "王总，之前跟您团队的李总交流，让我受益匪浅，今天特地带了我们团队核心成员向您请教。希望您 能不吝赐教，从资本的角度给我们一些宝贵的发展建议。" 王总是某投资机构的合伙人，以下是某公司创始人跟他的对话： "王总，久仰久仰，我知道您公司在我们这个行业堪称"掘金高手"，您的投资眼光之独到，投资水平之 高超，我们都是有所耳闻的。今天能见到您真是万分荣幸，感谢您能给这样宝贵的机会向您学习。" 潜台词：啥都不懂还来给我指点江山？ "王总，您对行业的理解和技术的理解真的不同于一般的基金合伙人，我也大大小小见了上百家投资机 构了，聊了不少合伙人级别的，论前瞻性和深刻性，您都是独树一帜的，比他们高出太多太多了！真 的，我讲这个话绝对不是恭维，我真没想到还有这么专业的投资人，能对我们的技术理解这么到位的！ 真令我意外！" 潜台词：呸，车轱辘话说来说去，听了几百遍了。 "王总，您太让我惊喜和刮目相看了，您抛出的这些问题都非常核心，一看就知道您是行家，真的，太 多投资人来尽调问的问题都非常小儿科和形式化，我都懒得见了。真的很少有人能像您一样对整个产业 有自上而下的深刻的洞见。我从来没有跟投资机构的合伙人 ...

Group 1: Business Insights - The essence of business is to acquire barriers [7] - A useful ancient rule in business involves finding a simple principle and strictly adhering to it [8] - Successful businesses can make decisions easily, while struggling businesses face significant difficulties in decision-making [11] Group 2: Work and Personal Conduct - Understanding the limitations of one's own intellect is crucial for effective problem-solving [18] - The importance of simplicity in thought and seriousness in action is emphasized [20] - Avoiding the temptation to conform to the average is essential for achieving exceptional results [22][23] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The essence of investment is to seek mispriced opportunities [31] - The principle of investing in great companies at fair prices is reiterated multiple times [29] - The focus should be on long-term value rather than short-term gains [41] Group 4: Cognitive Models - Common sense is often misunderstood and is actually quite rare [39] - Self-deception is a significant barrier to personal growth and success [40] - The importance of maintaining integrity and honesty in one's actions is highlighted [49]

Core Viewpoint - The UK faces a critical decision between investing for growth or succumbing to economic decline [1] Group 1: Economic Choices - The Chancellor of the Exchequer emphasizes that the UK must choose between investment and recession [1] - Investment is portrayed as essential for economic recovery and future growth [1] Group 2: Implications of Choices - A failure to invest could lead to prolonged economic stagnation and a decline in living standards [1] - The government is urged to prioritize strategic investments to stimulate the economy [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of cognitive models in understanding business and investment, highlighting Charlie Munger's unique thinking system that integrates principles from various hard sciences [1][3][57] - Munger's "toolbox" of 50 maxims is presented as essential for developing a robust understanding of human nature and systemic rules, which can help avoid foolish decisions [2][3][57] - The article suggests that true competitive advantage lies in building an "immunity system" against stupidity and using common sense to interpret the complexities of the world [3][4][57] Group 2 - Munger's insights on business include the necessity of identifying simple truths and adhering strictly to them, as well as the importance of recognizing when to withdraw from unfavorable situations [7][8][12] - The article discusses the significance of understanding the quality of businesses over the capabilities of their managers, advocating for a focus on the inherent strengths of companies [13][28] - It highlights the value of effective decision-making processes within successful companies, contrasting them with those that struggle to make sound choices [12][13] Group 3 - The article addresses the importance of recognizing one's cognitive limitations and the need for continuous self-reflection and adaptation in both personal and professional contexts [21][22][24] - Munger's principles encourage simplicity in thought and action, advocating for a focus on straightforward solutions rather than overcomplicating issues [25][28] - The text underscores the necessity of maintaining a strong reputation and the long-term benefits of integrity in business practices [48][57]

Supply and Demand Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI showed stability, with the production index above 50%, while new orders, raw material inventory, and employment remained below the critical threshold[3] - The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating marginal contraction in services[3] - Real estate investment continues to drag down overall investment, with the construction PMI dropping by 0.9 percentage points to 51%[3] Consumption and Investment Trends - Supported by policy, consumer demand showed improvement, with automobile sales increasing by 26% year-on-year in the last week of May[3] - Real estate sales in 30 cities exceeded 2 million square meters, marking a new high for Q2, with a significant reduction in year-on-year decline[3] - The manufacturing PMI for consumer goods returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in consumer goods production[3] Trade and Export Performance - The external trade situation remained resilient, with the SCFI index rising by 30.7% to 2072.71, and the NCFI index increasing by 51.5% to 1676.25[3] - Port cargo throughput exceeded 270 million tons, showing a month-on-month recovery, indicating strong export activity[3] Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks and potential underperformance of domestic policies[3] - There is a likelihood of reduced contribution from exports to economic growth in the second half of the year, necessitating a reliance on domestic demand to fill the gap[3]

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆会见西班牙对外银行（BBVA）的高管们，讨论关于52亿美元投资的计划。 双方谈及投资和墨西哥与美国之间的关系。 ...

Group 1 - The essence of investment is to improve the success probability of decisions amidst uncertainties [3][4] - The audio program "Not Just Money: Making Wallets and Lives More Certain" is launched on the Kan Lixiang App, hosted by professional investor Zhou Jiuzhou, who applies top investment institutions' frameworks to personal finance management [4] - Everyone is inherently an investor, as investing is not limited to money but includes time and energy in various aspects of life [4][5] Group 2 - Not everyone needs to engage in traditional investment or financial management, especially those with limited financial resources, but understanding long-term perspectives on challenges and opportunities is essential [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio emphasizes the importance of seeking the cancellation of tariffs by the United States, stating that investment is more crucial than tariffs [1] - There are positive signs in the economy following wage increases, indicating a potential recovery or growth [1]