展望2026年，王培认为，科技领域或仍将保持较强的产业势能，而价值风格在经济进入稳态区间后，有 望继续发挥支撑作用，市场或呈现"科技承先、价值续后"的特征。他同时指出，在信息密度、投资标的 类型数量大幅提升的市场环境下，投研体系的系统化与协同化将变得愈发关键，中欧基金权益专户团队 将通过专业化分工与工业化生产线应对市场挑战。 近日，在"看见 中欧基金2026年度投资策略会"上，中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培从长 期周期视角出发，回顾了过去二十余年市场风格的几轮重要切换。他指出，当前市场正处在从高成长向 中等增速过渡的阶段，科技与价值两大方向在新的周期背景下出现重新汇合的趋势。 他认为，第一阶段（2000—2010年）由周期成长风格主导，重化工业、资源行业和中低端制造业是主要 受益者；第二阶段（2010—2021年），随着城镇化率持续提升，内需消费与新兴服务不断升级，创业板 指数在这一时期迎来快速成长，市场风格明显向成长倾斜。 进入2021年以来的第三阶段，市场逐渐从高成长回到中等增速区间，价值风格重新占据主导。他指出， 在这一阶段，科创板指数没有跑赢中证红利指数，市场再次呈现价值回归的特征。同时，科 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of transitioning to a high-quality economic development model, focusing on the real economy and optimizing traditional industries while fostering new and emerging industries as growth pillars [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests prioritizing the real economy and enhancing traditional industries to release potential and cultivate new productive forces [1][2] - The plan categorizes industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring different development strategies [2][3] - Traditional industries currently account for 80% of China's manufacturing, serving as the foundation of the real economy [2] Group 2: Traditional Industries and New Productive Forces - There is a need to clarify the concept of new productive forces within traditional industries, which still hold growth potential despite current demand constraints [3] - The plan highlights the importance of addressing urbanization, rural migration, and high-quality real estate development to unlock traditional industry potential [3] Group 3: Fiscal Reform and Budget Management - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes deepening zero-based budgeting reforms to optimize fiscal expenditure and enhance budget performance management [4][5] - Zero-based budgeting requires each expenditure to be justified anew, contrasting with the previous incremental budgeting approach [5] Group 4: Financial Support for Economic Growth - The plan emphasizes the development of various financial sectors, including technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance, with technology finance being prioritized [6][7] - The current financing structure for technology innovation relies heavily on indirect financing, while direct financing through capital markets is more aligned with innovation risk characteristics [6] Group 5: Wealth Management and Public Demand - There is a growing demand for wealth management services among China's middle-income population, which exceeds 400 million [7] - Wealth management is seen as a crucial area for financial services, aiming to convert savings into investments and enhance residents' financial returns [7]

Group 1: Subsidy Analysis - Land subsidies for the industrial sector in 70 cities averaged 1.45 trillion annually from 2017 to 2024, accounting for approximately 1.3% of national GDP[1] - In 2023, tax incentives for the manufacturing sector's corporate income tax were about 730 billion, representing 0.56% of GDP[1] - The average industrial land price in 2024 was 497 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than residential land prices, creating a price gap that benefits industrial sectors[1] Group 2: Tax Burden Disparities - In 2023, the lowest tax burdens were in Guangxi (8.5%), Fujian (8.6%), and Hunan (8.7%), while the highest were in Beijing (34.5%) and Shanghai (33.4%)[1] - The tax burden in the eastern region was 16.4%, higher than the central (10.7%), western (12.4%), and northeastern (12.7%) regions[1] - The manufacturing sector's tax burden was 16.8%, with high burdens in finance, real estate, and heavy industries[1] Group 3: Industry and Regional Insights - In 2023, the automotive manufacturing sector in Hebei had a profit margin of 1.9% and a tax burden of 2.7%, indicating potential internal competition issues[1] - The electrical machinery sector in Shaanxi had a profit margin of 2.3% and a tax burden of 1.8%, suggesting similar competitive pressures[1] - The electronic equipment sector in Anhui reported a profit margin of -0.6% and a tax burden of 1.1%, highlighting challenges in profitability[1] Group 4: Transition in Government Behavior - Local governments are shifting from "race to the bottom" competition, characterized by lowering costs, to "race to the top," focusing on improving the business environment and innovation[1] - This transition is driven by pressures from the real estate market, changes in industrial policy, and tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption environments[1]

Supply and Demand Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI showed stability, with the production index above 50%, while new orders, raw material inventory, and employment remained below the critical threshold[3] - The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating marginal contraction in services[3] - Real estate investment continues to drag down overall investment, with the construction PMI dropping by 0.9 percentage points to 51%[3] Consumption and Investment Trends - Supported by policy, consumer demand showed improvement, with automobile sales increasing by 26% year-on-year in the last week of May[3] - Real estate sales in 30 cities exceeded 2 million square meters, marking a new high for Q2, with a significant reduction in year-on-year decline[3] - The manufacturing PMI for consumer goods returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in consumer goods production[3] Trade and Export Performance - The external trade situation remained resilient, with the SCFI index rising by 30.7% to 2072.71, and the NCFI index increasing by 51.5% to 1676.25[3] - Port cargo throughput exceeded 270 million tons, showing a month-on-month recovery, indicating strong export activity[3] Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks and potential underperformance of domestic policies[3] - There is a likelihood of reduced contribution from exports to economic growth in the second half of the year, necessitating a reliance on domestic demand to fill the gap[3]

周二，美国财政部长贝森特在摩根大通的一场闭门活动中表示，中美双方的关税战将很快降级。 特朗普也在公开场合发表了讲话，承认美国目前对自中国进口商品的关税过高，预计税率将大幅 降低。这标志着特朗普在其标志性的关税政策上态度已出现缓和。 为什么中国坚决反制美国滥加关税，同时大力强调提振内需？中国经济持续发展的引擎是什么？ 以下内容摘自曹远征教授新作《失衡与重塑》。 01 为什么中美竞争不同于日美竞争？ 据统计，2020年后，中国社会消费品零售总额就与美国类似指标相当，中国已是仅次于美国的第 二大消费市场，并具有超越之势。 目前中国正处于高收入社会的门槛处，其中约４亿人口的家庭收入已基本赶上发达国家。他们的 消费行为、生活方式以及社会心理也与发达国家相若，青睐高新科技产品，希望获得更好的医疗 服务，追求高品质教育，关注时尚潮流，甚至期望引领风气。 这一消费群体虽然占人口的比重不高，但总数却与美国相当，他们的需求和行为在推动中国产业 升级的同时，当然也与美国等发达国家的高新技术产业产生了正面竞争，其中中国新能源汽车的 发展所引起的国际摩擦就是例证。 由于摩擦在性质上类似于20世纪90年代的日美摩擦，从而国际社会也想当然 ...