Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamental analysis [5][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract unchanged [5]. - The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan on the day [5]. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy [5]. - China's exports and imports in July increased year - on - year. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [7]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. China's gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month in July. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [9]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes currently dominate the market, and prices may return to the industrial supply - demand logic in the medium term. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses rebar prices, while potential steel industry policies may be positive. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [11]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy affects the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, it is supported, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose. After previous fluctuations, they are returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. A coal production inspection policy has affected supply, and they may continue to be strong. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and ferroalloy production is rising while demand is weak, with high inventory. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels [17]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil declined due to the progress of US - Russia negotiations. OPEC+ increased production, and the market is waiting for the September meeting. The US non - farm data was poor, and geopolitical risks decreased. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined, blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and Asian supply is abundant. The market expects more fuel oil arrivals, and the main contract is recommended to short the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [23]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Raw material prices recovered, and the industry's capacity utilization increased. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Supply disturbances slowed down, and the market corrected. The decline space is limited, and long positions can be considered on dips [27]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. Urea - Last trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will fluctuate with the spot, and in the medium term, it is considered bullish [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX fluctuated. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. It may fluctuate, and interval trading is considered [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA fell. Supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. However, due to the pressure on processing fees and increased production cuts by large manufacturers, the downside is supported, and interval trading is considered [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The overall supply is high, but overseas maintenance may reduce imports, and inventory is decreasing. Interval trading is considered, focusing on port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber fell. Supply is high, demand has improved, and it may follow cost fluctuations [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips fell. Raw material prices fluctuate, device maintenance increases, and inventory is stable. The market is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash fell. Production increased this week, and inventory rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term [45]. Glass - Last trading day, glass fell. The number of production lines is stable, and inventory is increasing. The destocking speed slows down, and the downstream demand is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda fell. Production increased after previous maintenance, and inventory rose. The demand for aluminum products provides some support, and the market is returning to the fundamental logic [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. High port inventory and international shipping suppress the market. The demand for household paper is weak, and the supply - demand balance is weak [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is uncertain due to mining license issues. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high production and consumption improving, but high inventory. It is recommended to observe and control risks [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the domestic smelting cost has no room to decline. The Chinese stimulus policy is not satisfactory, but the Fed rate - cut expectation supports the price. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production may increase in the fourth quarter. The overall supply is still short, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore is weakening, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The low price stimulates demand, and the soybean crushing volume is high. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil is rising. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell due to concerns about inventory and production increases and weak export demand. Consider long positions in palm oil [60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded. China's imports of rapeseed decreased in June, while imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. Consider long positions in rapeseed products [62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated, and overseas cotton fell. The global and domestic cotton supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas sugar fell due to crude oil. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase. China's sugar imports increased in June. It is recommended to observe [67]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production in the new season will increase slightly. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [69]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the summer. Consider reverse - spread strategies [72]. Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was stable in the main production areas and fell in the main sales areas. The production cost is high, and the profit is low. The egg supply is expected to increase in August. Consider reverse - spread strategies [75]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the price has pressure. Consider call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows corn [77]. Logs - Last trading day, logs rose. The import of New Zealand logs is expected to increase, and the price is rising. The demand from downstream factories is increasing, and the short - term market sentiment is bullish [80].

【技术分析】 黄金价格周三承压回落微幅收跌，亚欧盘震荡下跌，美盘上涨，日线收阴线，回踩5日均线，日线RSI 位于50上方，4小时回踩3360附近企稳，继续看涨，若黄金行情彻底站上3380，短线仍有望挑战3400。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普最新宣布对印度商品加征25%关税，并将于三周后生效，部分商品税率将高达50%。这 是继拟对半导体芯片征收100%关税后，美国政府再次升级贸易保护措施，刺激市场避险情绪升温。 KCM Trade分析师Tim Waterer指出，金价正逼近3400美元心理关口，持续的政策不确定性巩固了黄金的 避险吸引力。 除贸易风险外，美元持续疲弱也为金价走势提供支撑。美元指数徘徊于一周低点附近，因市场预计美联 储9月降息概率高达95%。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态称，尽管关税影响尚不明确，但可 能需要降息应对经济放缓。分析师认为，在贸易紧张局势与货币政策宽松预期的双重作用下，黄金价格 短期或维持震荡偏强走势。 周四（8月7日）欧盘时段，现货黄金短线冲高，刷新近两周高点至3396美元，逼近3400美元心理关口， 因美联储官员鸽派讲话进一步打压美元，而且国际贸易局势的不确定性推升黄金的 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures experienced a rise and then a pullback, currently trading around $3443, with mixed performance in gold-related ETFs [1] - The China Gold International, Luk Fook Holdings, Chow Tai Fook, and other gold stocks saw significant increases, while the non-ferrous metal ETF also rebounded, rising by 0.82% [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement further monetary easing due to pressure from personnel appointments and disappointing employment data, leading to a recommendation for buying on dips in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The management fee of the China Gold ETF (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562) is 0.15%, with a custody fee of 0.05%, totaling 0.2%, which is among the lowest in similar products [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as long - term substitutes can bring certain excess returns and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, A - share major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.45% to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.66% to 2358.95 points; and the STAR 50 Index went up by 0.58% to 1059.76 points [2]. - Market trading volume was 1.7592 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military industry (+ 3.07%), machinery and equipment (+ 1.98%), and coal (+ 1.89%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (- 0.65%), commercial and retail (- 0.23%), and building materials (- 0.23%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3355, 246, and 1816 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 1.1 billion yuan, - 12.1 billion yuan, - 8.3 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 2.9 billion yuan, - 1.5 billion yuan, - 6.8 billion yuan, and + 5.3 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 98.71, 94.18, 16.49, and 1.22 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 10.9%, - 11.22%, - 3.04%, and - 0.33% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 31%, 12%, 30%, and 43% respectively [2]. - Detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts are presented in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [4]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.396, down 1.2 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.557, down 0.6 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.644, down 0.22 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.988, up 0.19 bps [2]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 138.5 billion yuan and withdrew 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [2]. - Detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts are presented in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of various sectors is similar to the same period [9]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the prosperity degree of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, as shown in Figure 2 [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The policy shows care for the capital market, and the overall direction is to buy on dips, but short - term market volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [5]. - Due to Trump's influence on the Fed and weak employment data, the Fed is likely to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [6][7]. - For most metals, although there are certain price - supporting factors, the price increase space is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials sector, the overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may gradually return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side [22]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies should be formulated according to their own characteristics [35][37][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of various products are different, and attention should be paid to factors such as policies, seasons, and international trade [51][52][53][55][57][59]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: Three departments issued a rural road improvement plan; State Grid's power load hit a record high; Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry; The photovoltaic association solicited opinions on the Price Law [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios [3]. - Trading logic: The policy shows care for the capital market, and the short - term market may fluctuate, but the overall direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes [4]. - News: Vietnam's exports and imports increased in July; A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of funds on the day [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices in Shanghai and COMEX have different changes; The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [6]. - Market outlook: Fed officials' dovish remarks and Trump's influence on the Fed increase the expectation of loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices rebounded, and LME and domestic inventories changed; The basis and import profit and loss also changed [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's expected interest rate cut supports copper prices, but the upside is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [10]. - Outlook: The low domestic inventory supports aluminum prices, but the upside is limited due to off - season demand and export pressure [10]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [11]. - Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to factors such as increased supply and weakening support factors [11][12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [13]. - Outlook: The upside of lead prices is limited due to factors such as sufficient supply and slow inventory increase [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [14]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are affected by nickel iron prices, and there is still pressure for price correction due to limited short - term demand improvement [14]. Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The prices of tin concentrate and the supply - demand situation also changed [15]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as the expected increase in supply and weak demand [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Carbonate lithium prices were stable, and the futures price rose; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [16]. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, and the bottom of lithium prices is supported, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and import profit and loss also changed [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as oversupply and weakening market sentiment [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [18]. - Outlook: The short - term market is optimistic, and prices may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [19]. - Outlook: The price increase space is limited due to off - season demand and weak supply - demand [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [21]. - Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [23]. - Outlook: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to factors such as limited supply growth and demand support [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Prices fell, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [25]. - Soda Ash: Prices fluctuated, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Prices rebounded, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed [27]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and participate in hedging positions opportunistically [27][28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is recommended to be cautious due to factors such as oversupply and weak demand [30][31]. - Polysilicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Prices rebounded and then fluctuated, and the views of bulls and bears are different; Tire factory operating rates decreased, and inventory increased [35][36]. - Strategy: It is recommended to be neutral and slightly bullish, and conduct short - term operations [36]. Crude Oil - Market: Prices fell, and the EIA data showed changes in inventory [37]. - Outlook: Crude oil has upward momentum, but the upside is limited in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and set a target price [38]. Methanol - Market: Prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices face pressure [39]. Urea - Market: Prices fell, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - positions on dips [40]. Styrene - Market: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose; The cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; BZN is expected to repair, and prices may rise with the cost side [41][42]. PVC - Market: Prices rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices may decline in the short - term [44]. PTA - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to following PX to buy on dips [45]. p - Xylene - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to following crude oil to buy on dips [46]. Polyethylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices may be affected by the cost and supply sides in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [47][48]. Polypropylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July [49]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Prices were half - stable and half - falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [51]. Eggs - Market: Prices were stable or falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - term and reduce short - positions on dips in the short - term [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly; The supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is recommended to buy on dips in the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [53][54]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The policy and inventory support the price center, but the upside is limited, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [55][56]. Sugar - Market: Prices fluctuated weakly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; Prices are likely to continue to fall in the future [57][58]. Cotton - Market: Prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The US cotton growth situation is good, and the market is bearish in the short - term [59].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing as expectations of "anti-involution" policies diminish, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.71% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising from 1.64% and 1.85% to peaks of 1.75% and 2.00%, respectively, reflecting increases of 11 basis points and 15 basis points [2] - The recent "anti-involution" reform expectations have positively impacted stock and commodity performance, causing disturbances in the bond market [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment may present an opportunity for entry, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI and bill market data indicate weak demand, with industrial growth expected to slow to around 6.3% in July due to various factors, including adverse weather conditions and production control measures [3] - The cooling of commodity prices is also seen as beneficial for the bond market, as previously over-inflated prices are undergoing corrections [3] Group 3: Liquidity Factors - August is anticipated to see a decline in funding rates, with historical trends suggesting stability in rates like R001 and R007 [4] - There is optimism among industry insiders that institutional funds will likely flow back into the bond market in August, following a period of redemption in July [4] - The yields on long-term bonds have risen to around 2.0%, indicating potential for further downward movement in yields driven by insurance capital allocation [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain focus on the bond market, emphasizing the importance of securing certain yield values amid a narrow trading range [6] - Strategies include timing trades based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the period from August to October for potential market disturbances [6] - The 10-year government bond is highlighted as a high-value trading option, with potential for significant returns despite limited room for rate cuts [7]

盘面概览 | 涨幅居前的板块 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 银行 | 钢铁 | 传媒 | 通信 | | 1.98% | 1.59% | 1.45% | 1.28% | 1.25% | 数据来源：Wind 以上观点内容是银河基金管理有限公司对目前证券市场情况进行研究的结果，具有时效性，并不构成对任何机构和个人投资的建议。银河基金管理有限公 司不对任何人因使用上述全部或部分内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任。未经允许，禁止单独摘引、截取或以其他不恰当方式传播。投资有风险，投资 需谨慎。 来源：银河基金 | 上证指数 | 0.96% | 沪深300 | 0.80% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 深证指数 | 0.59% | 中证500 | 0.66% | | 创业板指 | 0.39% | 科创20 | 0.40% | 数据来源：Wind，仅展示当日涨跌幅居前的行业 主要因素 Wind数据显示，板块题材上，申万一级行业实现全线上涨：综合、银行、钢铁、传媒板块涨幅居前；医药生物、计算机、建筑材料板块涨幅居后。境外 收入监管强 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-05 美联储戴利称降息时机已临近 交易主线转向宽松预期 策略摘要 海外宏观方面，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且并无证据表明关税通 胀的持续性，则现阶段转向宽松的时机已经接近。戴利称，年内两次25BP的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调 整，且重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而非是否选择降息；考虑到美国非农数据的低迷，目前市场交易重心已 经重新回到年内的货币政策转宽上。关税方面，欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟将在6个月内暂停实施原定于8月7日 对美国生效的关税反制措施；欧盟将继续与美国合作，以敲定一项关于贸易的联合声明。马来西亚同意削减或取 消美国关税清单中98.4%商品的进口关税，并将在五年内采购价值1500亿美元的美国半导体、航空航天和数据中心 领域产品。瑞士联邦委员会表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关税后，瑞士决定继续进行谈判，必要 时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。瑞士准备提出更具吸引力的方案。整体看，特朗普政府的新一轮关税税率 公布后各经济体多选择在与美国的谈判中让步，市场对于美关税不确定性风险的定价权重或将降低；短期贵金属 ...

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing a moderate increase in the first half of 2025, rising from $22 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a peak of approximately $28.5 per ounce in June, but has struggled to break through the key resistance level of $30. The second half of 2025 may see renewed investor interest due to a more accommodative macro environment and signs of industrial recovery. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has completed its first rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75%, with expectations for another cut later in the year as inflation approaches target levels. This easing monetary policy benefits the precious metals sector [1] - The decline in the dollar index and real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding silver, leading to a shift in risk appetite towards physical assets [1] - Historically, each round of Fed rate cuts has benefited gold and silver, with silver typically lagging behind gold in price increases [1] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Approximately 60% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, particularly in the electronics and photovoltaic sectors. The Silver Institute's Q2 2025 report indicates that global photovoltaic capacity is growing faster than expected, with significant increases in silver usage in new battery technologies [2] - The semiconductor market is recovering after two years of decline, driving demand for high-precision silver contacts [2] - Industrial silver demand is projected to grow to 560 million ounces in 2025, representing a nearly 7% year-over-year increase, supporting the fundamental price outlook for silver [3] Group 3: Investment Demand - Unlike gold, silver investment demand is more speculative. Although silver ETF holdings have increased in the first half of 2025, they have not returned to the highs seen during the pandemic in 2020 [5] - Investor sentiment regarding inflation remains divided, with some capital favoring gold over silver. The volatility of silver makes it less attractive to risk-averse institutional investors [5] - The appeal of risk assets like U.S. stocks and Bitcoin has diverted some funds away from precious metals [5] Group 4: Supply Constraints - While rising silver prices may encourage some mines to increase production, actual supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental regulations, and insufficient capital expenditure. Global silver mine output is expected to grow by only about 2% in 2025 [7] - High-grade silver resources are concentrated in politically risky regions such as Mexico and Peru, and the supply from recycling is highly dependent on metal price fluctuations [7] - The limited elasticity of supply supports the potential for a mid-term price increase for silver [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, silver has formed a wide consolidation range on the monthly chart, with $30 per ounce being a significant resistance level since 2013. A successful breakout would require favorable fundamentals and increased trading volume [9] - If silver can stabilize above $30, the next target range would be $32.5 to $35 per ounce [9] Summary - The potential for silver price increases in the second half of 2025 is supported by three main factors: a shift towards accommodative global monetary policy, a rapid recovery in industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, and a tightening supply-demand structure [10] - However, for silver to effectively break through the $30 level in the short term, sustained inflows into ETFs and confirmation from technical indicators will be necessary [10]