中性利率

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美联储会议纪要:几位与会者表示,目前的联邦基金利率可能不会远高于中性利率。
news flash· 2025-07-09 18:04
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that several participants believe the current federal funds rate may not be significantly higher than the neutral rate [1] Group 1 - Several Federal Reserve participants expressed that the existing federal funds rate is likely to remain close to the neutral rate [1]
英国央行货币政策委会(MPC)成员泰勒:最佳决策方式是,降息,然后在更长时期内维持不变。与其按兵不动然后不得不更大幅度地降息,不如先行降息然后保持利率不变。需要到2026-27年实现更低的中性利率。
news flash· 2025-07-04 15:17
Core Viewpoint - The best decision-making approach is to lower interest rates first and then maintain them for a longer period, rather than remaining inactive and having to implement larger cuts later [1] Group 1 - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Taylor suggests that an initial rate cut followed by a stable period is preferable [1] - The aim is to achieve a lower neutral interest rate by 2026-27 [1]
英国央行泰勒:要达到中性利率还有很长的路要走。
news flash· 2025-07-04 15:05
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Taylor emphasizes that there is still a long way to go to reach the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions indicate that the neutral interest rate has not yet been achieved [1] - Taylor suggests that ongoing adjustments in monetary policy are necessary to approach the neutral rate [1] - The statement reflects the central bank's cautious stance on interest rate changes in the near future [1]
英国央行Taylor:还要走很长的路才能实现中性利率。
news flash· 2025-07-04 15:03
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Taylor emphasizes that there is still a long way to go before achieving a neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy requires further adjustments to reach a neutral stance [1] - Taylor indicates that the path to a neutral interest rate is complex and may take considerable time [1] - The central bank remains vigilant in monitoring economic indicators to guide future interest rate decisions [1]
温施:通胀的下行风险大于上行风险
news flash· 2025-07-04 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The risk of inflation is leaning towards the downside rather than the upside, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Wunsch [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Energy price declines, a strengthening euro, and uncertain economic growth prospects are cited as reasons for the assessment of inflation risks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Wunsch suggests that the neutral interest rate level may still be insufficient, indicating support for a moderately accommodative monetary policy [1]
【招银研究|海外宏观】乏力的“超预期”——美国非农就业数据点评(2025年6月)
招商银行研究· 2025-07-04 10:53
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].
日本央行审议委员关税尚未影响日本企业 但仍需警惕潜在波折风险
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 06:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the positive performance of Japanese companies, there are risks associated with U.S. tariffs that need to be monitored closely [1] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining an accommodative monetary policy as it approaches its inflation target, but has not fully achieved it yet [1][2] - There is a moderate upward trend in capital expenditure according to the BOJ's short-term economic observation survey, with no significant changes reported [1] Group 2 - High inflation in the U.S. and actions by the Federal Reserve are critical factors that the BOJ plans to monitor closely in the coming months [1] - The BOJ is considering further adjustments to its monetary easing measures if corporate positive behavior can be confirmed to continue [2] - The Japanese economy is nearing its price stability target, with expectations of moderate consumption growth and improving corporate profits [2]
日本央行审议委员高田创:很难准确确定日本的中性利率水平,应以具体的中性利率估算作为指导政策的依据。
news flash· 2025-07-03 05:15
日本央行审议委员高田创:很难准确确定日本的中性利率水平,应以具体的中性利率估算作为指导政策 的依据。 ...
7月2日电,英国央行的TAYLOR预计中性利率将在2.75%-3%左右。
news flash· 2025-07-02 10:02
智通财经7月2日电,英国央行的TAYLOR预计中性利率将在2.75%-3%左右。 ...