伊朗核问题负责人伊斯拉米：如果与美国达成核协议，伊朗可能会允许美国检查员作为国际原子能机构 检查小组的一部分访问伊朗核设施。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]

伊朗方面称，在浓缩问题解决之前，不要指望达成核协议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

【冠通研究】 原油：震荡上行 制作日期：2025年5月21日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 欧佩克+产油国从4月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将5月日均原油供应量提高到41.1万桶。5月3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8个参与国将在6月增产41.1万桶/日。逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决 于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在6月批准7月再一次加速增 产，幅度为每日41.1万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到10月逐步取消此前设定的220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，低于计划的13.8万桶/日。目前OPEC+暂未进入增产节奏。不过OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性 减产有待验证，美国原油产量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署， 后续原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条 款达成一致，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美国与中东多国签署经 济合作协议，但也需注意全球10%的基准关税可能会保留。全球贸易战对经济的伤害悲观预 ...

美国国务卿鲁比奥：与伊朗达成核协议并不容易。 ...

热点品种 原油： 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。 逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另 外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步取消此前设 定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的 八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5 万桶/日，低于计划的 13.8 万桶/日。目前 OPEC+ 暂未进入增产节奏。不过 OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证，美国原油产 量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署，后续 原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关 税贸易协 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

【PP市场动态：下游开工下降，价格涨跌互现】PP 下游整体开工环比继续下降，处于历年同期偏低水 平。其中塑编开工率环比降 0.2 个百分点至 44.8%，塑编订单稳定，略高于前两年同期。 美国加征关税 不利 PP 下游制品出口，且聚丙烯上游丙烷进口受限。新增东莞巨正源、绍兴三圆等检修装置，PP 企业 开工率跌至 82%左右，标品拉丝生产比例下降至 24%左右。 上周末累库幅度较大，工作日正常去库， 石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。伊朗核协议或将签署，加之 OPEC+增产步伐加快，美国原油库存超 预期增加，原油价格下跌。 供应上埃克森惠州两套装置投产放量，近期检修装置增加较多，下游恢复 缓慢，塑编开工继续下降，新增订单有限。中美贸易谈判提振市场情绪，现货交投好转，价格上涨，市 场预期下游需求改善，预计 PP 小幅反弹。 期货方面，PP2509 合约减仓震荡下行，最低价 7134 元/ 吨，最高价 7189 元/吨，最终收盘于 7161 元/吨，在 20 日均线上方，涨幅 0.18%，持仓量减少 5927 手 至 419929 手。 现货方面，PP 各地区现货价格多数上涨，拉丝报 7130 - 7410 元/吨。 ...

伊朗提议在与美国进行下一轮谈判前先与欧洲会面 金十数据4月29日讯，据外媒报道，四名外交官周一表示，伊朗提议如果与美国恢复谈判，伊朗可能于 本周五在罗马与2015年核协议的欧洲各方举行会晤，并提醒称欧洲方面尚未对这一想法作出回应。阿曼 官员表示，新一轮美伊会谈可能于5月3日在欧洲举行。目前尚未做出正式决定。伊朗向英国、法国和德 国（即E3）伸出橄榄枝，这表明德黑兰方面仍在保留选择，同时也希望评估欧洲方面在10月之前可能 重新实施联合国制裁的立场--届时，批准2015年核协议的决议将到期。两名E3外交官和一名西方外交官 表示，伊朗在上周六与美国会谈后提出了可能于周五在罗马举行会谈的提议。外交官们表示，如果这不 可能的话，伊朗方面还建议在此日期之前在德黑兰进行讨论。 ...