地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 29 日 热点品种 原油： 雪佛龙此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日 向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最 低限度的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业 的制裁升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪 佛龙占委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞 拉石油行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制 裁大幅削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议 和俄乌停火的谈判手段。5 月 28 日第 39 届 OPEC+部长级会议宣布维持 25-26 年 产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定 2027 年产量基线，5 月 31 日还将举行 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国会议，届时可能达成 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日的协 议。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不 ...

特朗普：相信伊朗核协议可以在"未来几周内"完成 金十数据5月29日讯，周三，美国总统特朗普表示，他曾经警告以色列总理内塔尼亚胡不要对伊朗进行 军事打击，这可能会破坏就德黑兰核项目达成协议的努力。"我告诉他现在这样做是不合适的，因为我 们已经非常接近解决方案了，"特朗普对记者说。"现在这种情况随时可能改变，可能通过一个电话就会 改变，但现在，我认为他们想要达成协议。"特朗普补充说，他相信与伊朗的协议可以在"未来几周 内"完成，谈判取得了"很大进展"。几个小时前，《纽约时报》报道称，内塔尼亚胡正在考虑单方面袭 击伊朗的主要核浓缩设施。以色列不是美伊谈判的一方，内塔尼亚胡表示，他希望在任何协议中都能大 规模拆除伊朗的核项目。 ...

伊朗核问题负责人伊斯拉米：如果与美国达成核协议，伊朗可能会允许美国检查员作为国际原子能机构 检查小组的一部分访问伊朗核设施。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]

伊朗方面称，在浓缩问题解决之前，不要指望达成核协议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Upward", and the strategy is to "Sell Short at High Prices" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, and there is a possibility of accelerating production increases. The actual production increase in May was lower than planned, and the implementation of compensatory production cuts is yet to be verified. The U.S. crude oil production is near a historical high, and with other non-OPEC+ countries releasing production capacity and the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, there is significant pressure on crude oil supply [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, and some economic cooperation agreements have been reached. However, the pessimistic expectations of the economic damage caused by the trade war have not been fully reversed. Currently, it is the off-season for global crude oil consumption. With the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the crude oil price has reached a resistance level, and there is still downward pressure on crude oil [1] - The signing of the Iran nuclear deal is not as optimistic as previously expected, and there are geopolitical risks, but the probability of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future is low under U.S. pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2507 contract, rose 1.18% to 470.1 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 462.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1234 to 29076 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 20,000 barrels to 740,000 barrels per day, and expects the growth rate to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025. The 2026 forecast is raised by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. The IEA also raises the 2025 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. EIA data shows that for the week ending May 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.454 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels [3] - On the supply side, OPEC's March crude oil production was revised down by 4,000 barrels per day to 26.772 million barrels per day, and its April 2025 production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.71 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 13.387 million barrels per day in the week of May 9 [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.836 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%. The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 0.88% to 8.794 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.006 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.77%. The weekly demand for diesel increased by 7.27% to 3.777 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.688 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. However, the supply of propane decreased significantly, causing the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to decrease by 2.17% month - on - month [4]

美国国务卿鲁比奥：与伊朗达成核协议并不容易。 ...

热点品种 原油： 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。 逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另 外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步取消此前设 定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的 八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5 万桶/日，低于计划的 13.8 万桶/日。目前 OPEC+ 暂未进入增产节奏。不过 OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证，美国原油产 量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署，后续 原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关 税贸易协 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]