21世纪经济研究院 研究员 李果 截至2025年三季度末，免签入境我国的外国游客数量同比大幅度提升，这对于提升我国城市的国际影响力、增加旅游外汇收入有重要推动作 用。 韩国游客的持续增长是一大亮点。前三季度，上海、青岛、张家界等城市正在涌入越来越多的韩国人。 昆明也颇受南亚和东南亚游客的欢迎。在以"南亚东南亚入境消费第一城"为目标推动下，昆明前三季度的入境游客数量已经接近2024年全年水 平。 上海主抓"周末经济" 事实上，从较长的时间周期看（2000-2019年），排名上海第一入境游客源国的并非是韩国，且韩国游客的数据未出现在上海历年的《统计年 鉴》中。 但自2024年11月我国对韩国持普通护照人员试行免签政策以来，前往上海的韩国游客数量开始大幅度提升，并成为2024年来沪入境游最大客源 国——当年韩国籍过夜游客达到44.6余万人次。 有调查显示，与其他国家来上海的游客不同，韩国游客呈现周末短日游的特征，通常是"周五入住、周日退房"，且与陪父母去张家界"尽孝"的 家庭游不同，大量来上海的韩国游客是年轻群体。 2025年，周末来上海短日游的韩国游客数量继续上涨，据上海市统计局数据显示，截至2025年9月底，来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on tourism, particularly the decline in Chinese tourist spending in Japan due to government advisories [2][4] - In the first nine months of 2025, Chinese tourists are expected to spend approximately 1.6443 trillion yen in Japan, accounting for about 25% of the total spending by all visitors, which is 6.9156 trillion yen [2] - The forecast for total spending by Chinese tourists in Japan for 2025 is around 2 trillion yen, indicating a cautious outlook for the tourism industry [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government's advisory for citizens to exercise caution when traveling to Japan has been influenced by rising tensions between China and Japan, particularly following comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Marin regarding Taiwan [4] - Compared to tourists from Western countries, Chinese tourists exhibit lower per capita spending and average length of stay, but they show higher spending and longer stays compared to tourists from South Korea and other East Asian regions [6] - A significant portion of Chinese tourists' expenditures is allocated to shopping and dining, indicating their preferences and spending behavior while visiting Japan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 2.17% from October 24, 2025, to November 6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.28 percentage points during the same period [8][31]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the 2026 holiday arrangements, particularly the nine-day Spring Festival holiday, which is expected to stimulate domestic travel demand [31]. - Recent government policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations and improvements to duty-free shop policies, are anticipated to further support the recovery of inbound and domestic tourism [31][21][25]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services index continued its upward trend, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8]. - All sub-sectors within the consumer services industry experienced gains, with tourism and leisure leading at 3.44% [9]. - A total of 33 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Fangzhitech, *ST Zhanggu, Caesar Travel, China Duty Free, and Chuangye Heima [12]. Industry News - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding inbound consumption and implementing paid staggered vacations [23]. - The 2026 holiday schedule includes a nine-day Spring Festival break, leading to a threefold increase in flight searches on travel platforms [21]. - The Ministry of Finance announced improvements to duty-free shop policies effective November 1, 2025, aimed at boosting consumption [25]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free reported a revenue of 39.862 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.34% [28]. - Long White Mountain announced a stock issuance to optimize its capital structure, raising approximately 236 million yuan [26]. - ST Zhangjiajie was accepted for reorganization by the court, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [27]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and China Duty Free, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in leisure travel demand and supportive policies [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is launching a "Warm Winter Consumption Season" from November to March, integrating major events like the National Games and the Spring Festival to create a city-wide consumption festival [1][4]. Group 1: Event Structure - The consumption season will be divided into three phases: 1. **November to December**: "Vibrant Guangzhou - Dynamic Scene," leveraging the National Games to stimulate consumption through various events and discounts [6]. 2. **December to January**: "Tidal Wave Guangzhou - Fashion Circle," focusing on social consumption and fashion shopping with events like the Fashion Industry Conference and Guangzhou Design Week [6]. 3. **January to March**: "Flavors of Guangzhou - Flower Street," centered around traditional celebrations with enhanced consumption experiences and various festive activities [6]. Group 2: New Consumption Experiences - The initiative will offer a comprehensive experience combining "food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment," introducing new formats like "cruise + consumption" and themed events [5]. - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy at the Pazhou Passenger Port aims to enhance inbound tourism and consumption [7]. Group 3: Promotional Activities - Starting in November, Guangzhou will initiate promotional activities across various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and local specialties, with subsidies available [8][10]. - The city will also distribute dining vouchers and implement discounts for inbound consumers using foreign-issued UnionPay cards, with over 8,000 participating stores [8][9]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The city is collaborating with 11 districts and over 300 key commercial entities to host the Guangzhou International Shopping Festival, featuring more than 3,000 events and various promotional offers [9].

Core Insights - The recent surge in inbound consumption is supported by new policies aimed at enhancing the shopping experience and travel convenience, which are expected to stimulate domestic consumption and investment, injecting new momentum into economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Inbound Consumption Data - In the third quarter of this year, the number of inbound and outbound foreigners reached 20.134 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with visa-free entries increasing by 48.3% to 7.246 million [2]. - From January to September, the number of foreign travelers applying for departure tax refunds increased by 229.8%, with the refund amount rising by 97.4% [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures - A series of policies have been introduced to enhance the convenience of inbound travel and shopping experiences, including the increase of visa-free entry ports from 60 to 65 and the online filling of entry cards for foreigners starting November 20 [4]. - New categories of duty-free goods have been added, including mobile phones, drones, sports goods, and health foods, effective November 1 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest further refining supporting measures to sustain the growth of inbound consumption, such as dynamically adjusting the duty-free list and enhancing the shopping experience through "shopping + tourism" initiatives [5]. - The overall outlook for inbound consumption is optimistic, with expectations that it will become a strong driver of economic growth as policies continue to evolve [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in China aim to boost inbound consumption, which is expected to drive domestic consumption and investment demand, injecting new momentum into economic growth [1][4]. Policy Support - New policies effective from November 1 include enhancements to duty-free shopping and adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, aimed at increasing the variety of goods available [4]. - The number of entry ports eligible for 240-hour visa-free transit will increase from 60 to 65 starting November 5 [1]. Inbound Consumption Growth - Inbound consumption is experiencing significant growth, with 13.4 million foreign visitors recorded in Q3, a 22.3% increase year-on-year, and 7.25 million of these visitors entered under visa-free policies, marking a 48.3% increase [2]. - From January to September, the number of foreign travelers benefiting from departure tax refunds surged by 229.8%, with the refund amount increasing by 97.4% [2]. Recommendations for Future Measures - Experts suggest refining regional strategies, enhancing international recognition of domestic brands, and improving cross-border after-sales support to sustain the growth of inbound consumption [5]. - There is a call for dynamic adjustments to the duty-free product list, including the addition of new categories such as green smart appliances and domestic beauty products [5]. Enhancements in Consumer Experience - Recommendations include establishing city-based duty-free stores in popular tourist cities, promoting a "city booking, port pickup" model, and expanding the "immediate refund" service nationwide [6]. - The development of a multilingual duty-free shopping app that integrates tax refund and logistics tracking features is also suggested to enhance the shopping experience for foreign visitors [6].

Core Insights - Inbound consumption is expected to drive domestic consumption and investment demand, injecting new momentum into economic growth [1] - Continuous policy enhancements are anticipated to further stimulate inbound consumption [1] Group 1: Current Trends in Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption is experiencing significant growth, with a 22.3% increase in foreign visitors in Q3, totaling 20.134 million [2] - The number of foreign tourists eligible for tax refunds has surged by 229.8% year-on-year, with refund amounts increasing by 97.4% [2] - Tourists are increasingly attracted to both international brands and local products, benefiting from tax refund policies [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Innovations - The government has implemented measures to expand visa-free entry and optimize tax refund policies, contributing to the rapid growth of inbound consumption [3] - New policies have been introduced to enhance the shopping experience, including the expansion of duty-free shop categories and the introduction of new products [4] - The integration of shopping and tourism is being promoted to enhance the appeal of inbound consumption [4] Group 3: Future Recommendations - Experts suggest refining regional strategies and enhancing international recognition of domestic brands to support the ongoing growth of inbound consumption [5] - Recommendations include expanding the duty-free product list and improving the shopping experience for foreign tourists [5] - The outlook for inbound consumption remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in tourist numbers due to supportive policies [5]

Core Insights - The recent policies implemented to support duty-free shopping and enhance inbound tourism are expected to significantly boost domestic consumption and investment demand, providing new momentum for economic growth [1][3][4] Policy Enhancements - Starting from November 1, new policies have been enacted to improve the duty-free shopping experience, including the expansion of product categories in duty-free stores and the adjustment of duty-free shopping policies for travelers in Hainan [3] - The number of entry ports eligible for a 240-hour visa-free transit will increase from 60 to 65, effective November 5 [1] - The implementation of online entry card filling for foreigners will begin on November 20 [1] Consumption Trends - Inbound consumption is experiencing a notable increase, with data showing that in Q3, the number of inbound and outbound foreign travelers reached 20.134 million, a growth of 22.3% year-on-year, and visa-free inbound travelers numbered 7.246 million, up 48.3% [2] - From January to September, the number of foreign travelers who processed departure tax refunds surged by 229.8%, with the refund amount increasing by 97.4% [2] Future Recommendations - Experts suggest further refining policies to enhance regional layouts, increase international recognition of domestic brands, and improve cross-border after-sales support to sustain the growth of inbound consumption [4] - Recommendations include dynamically adjusting the duty-free product list to include emerging categories, enhancing the integration of duty-free shopping with cultural and tourism resources, and expanding the coverage of departure tax refund stores [4]

Core Insights - Since April, China's outbound tax refund policy has been continuously optimized, significantly boosting the consumption activity of foreign travelers [1][2] - From January to September this year, the number of foreign travelers applying for tax refunds increased by 229.8%, while the refund amount rose by 97.4% [1] Group 1: Policy Enhancements - The State Taxation Administration issued a notice on April 8 to promote the "immediate refund upon purchase" service nationwide, enhancing convenience for travelers [1] - On April 26, six government departments jointly released a notification to further optimize the tax refund policy and expand inbound consumption [1] - The tax refund management measures were revised on April 27 to simplify the refund process and improve the experience for foreign travelers [1] Group 2: Service Improvements - System functionalities have been optimized, allowing for more efficient tax refund processing with a 45% increase in efficiency due to new features like automatic invoice information retrieval and QR code data entry [2] - Cross-regional processing has been encouraged, allowing travelers to enjoy "immediate refund upon purchase" services even when shopping and departure locations differ, with several regions already implementing mutual recognition of services [2] - Innovative refund methods have been introduced, including centralized refund points in major shopping areas and new features for mobile refunds, enhancing the efficiency of tax refunds [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The tax authorities aim to continuously optimize the outbound tax refund services to attract more foreign travelers to shop in China, thereby enhancing the potential of inbound tourism consumption [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumption market has shown steady growth in September 2023, with a retail sales total of 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, indicating its significant role in driving the economy [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% in September, with notable growth in the sales of communication equipment, furniture, and cultural office supplies, each growing by 16.2% [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, marking a growth of 6.3% [1] - As of October 22, 2023, applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy exceeded 10 million [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [2] - Significant growth was observed in leisure services, communication services, tourism consulting, and transportation services, all achieving double-digit growth [2] - The share of service consumption in total household expenditure reached 46.8% [2] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - Sales of smart wearable devices and robotic vacuum cleaners increased by over 15%, while energy-saving dishwashers and organic food sales grew by more than 10% [2] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.296 million units, with a growth rate of 15.5% and a market penetration rate of 57.8% [2] Group 4: Inbound Consumption - Policies such as expanding visa-free entry and optimizing tax refunds for outbound travelers have boosted inbound consumption, with 20.134 million foreign visitors recorded in the third quarter, a 22.3% increase [2] - Among these, the number of visa-free foreign visitors rose by 48.3% to 7.246 million [2] Group 5: Trade-in Policy Impact - Over 76 million consumers participated in the trade-in program for 12 categories of home appliances, resulting in the purchase of over 126 million units [3] - More than 81 million consumers bought mobile devices, totaling over 88 million units sold [3] - Approximately 87,000 retail stores engaged in the trade-in program for electric bicycles, leading to over 12 million new purchases [3]