Core Points - The Trump administration is relaxing tariff policies ahead of a Supreme Court hearing regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][4] - A list of exemptions for various products, including gold and LED lights, has been released, indicating a potential shift in trade strategy [1][5] - The administration is utilizing the more stable legal foundation of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to implement tariffs, citing national security [4] Group 1 - The Trump administration has exempted dozens of products from tariffs, signaling preparation for a possible legal defeat [1][4] - The exemptions primarily target products that cannot be produced domestically, including certain agricultural products and aircraft parts [1][4] - A consensus is forming within the Trump administration to lower tariffs on non-domestically produced goods [3] Group 2 - The administration's recent tariff exemptions are seen as a "hedging strategy" against potential Supreme Court losses [4] - The Trump administration has announced a 25% tariff on trucks and truck parts, effective November 1, under the Trade Expansion Act [4] - The Secretary of Commerce has softened his stance on tariffs, indicating that exemptions may be granted for products not grown in the U.S. [5] Group 3 - Various industries are urging the government to expand the scope of tariff exemptions, including requests for exemptions on coffee, oats, and tropical fruits [5] - The administration's approach marks a shift from the initial hardline stance on tariffs, reflecting changing economic pressures [5]

Market Performance - On October 14, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.16% and 0.76% respectively [2][3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia dropping 4.41%, resulting in a market value loss of over $200 billion (approximately 14,000 million RMB) [1][4] Tech Sector Insights - The Wind data indicates that the Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index decreased by 1.26% [4] - Individual stocks such as Amazon and Tesla also saw declines of over 1% [4] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.28%, with Intel and Broadcom experiencing drops of over 4% and 3% respectively [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.95%, while the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index fell by 1.52% [6] Commodity Market - On October 14, international precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.64% and COMEX silver futures declining by 0.17% [8] - Crude oil prices also fell, with the main US oil contract down 1.51% and Brent crude down 1.63% due to oversupply concerns and weak demand [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may halt balance sheet contraction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [10] - Powell suggested potential support for another rate cut this month, citing increasing risks in the labor market [10][11]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a global economic growth rate of approximately 2.7% for this year [1] Economic Impact - The uncertainty in economic predictions has been influenced by the ongoing adjustments to tariff policies by the Trump administration, prompting the WTO to revise its trade and economic growth forecasts multiple times throughout the year [1]

Core Insights - Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. experienced a 3.50% increase in stock price, reaching its highest point since February 2025, attracting significant market attention [1] - The company's operations in Limerick, Ireland, are crucial as it is a major manufacturing hub for multinational pharmaceutical companies [1] - Recent changes in U.S. tariff policies on overseas drug production have created challenges for Thermo Fisher and similar companies, despite a reduction in tariffs from 250% to 15% [1] Company Strategies - To mitigate short-term tariff impacts, Thermo Fisher and other companies are implementing measures such as pre-exporting key raw materials and adjusting pricing strategies [2] - The high profit margins of pharmaceuticals provide a buffer against some tariff costs, but long-term challenges remain regarding U.S. policy stability and decisions on drug production locations [2] Investor Considerations - Investors should closely monitor Thermo Fisher's future strategies in global markets, particularly in the U.S., as stable policy environments and effective risk management could enhance the company's growth prospects [2] - The ongoing uncertainty in economic policies necessitates vigilance from investors to assess the impact of market and policy changes on company performance [2]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with trade friction measures involving an amount that increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] By Country - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the United States, European Union, and Brazil had the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. leading in trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] By Industry - The main industries affected by trade friction include electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] China-related Trade Friction - The trade friction index related to China among 19 countries and regions was 107, indicating a high level of tension, with the U.S. having the highest index. Key sectors include drones, solar cells, and AI chips [1] - In July, the amount involved in trade friction measures related to China decreased by 16.4% year-on-year but increased by 11.9% month-on-month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of oil prices, but they have not broken through the oscillation range. Before the long - holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid extreme fluctuations in the external market [1]. - The supply and demand of different products have different impacts on prices. For example, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, which will put pressure on the market; the supply of asphalt is high, and the upward space of prices may be affected; the supply of polyolefins is stable, and demand is improving marginally; the supply of PVC is high, and domestic demand recovers slowly [3][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.01 to $64.98/barrel, Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.34 to $68.8/barrel, and SC2511 closed up 2.2 yuan to 491.1 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical events such as Ukraine's attack on Russian ports and Trump's remarks have increased market volatility. BP predicts that global oil demand will continue to grow before 2030. The oil price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 rose 1.3%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 rose 1.56%. In August 2025, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a new high this year. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited upside [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 1.3%. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but the high supply in October may limit price increases. The price is expected to remain stable, and the actual demand needs attention [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.12%, EG2601 rose 0.28%, and PX futures rose 1.09%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The polyester load decreased slightly. The prices of the polyester chain followed the cost increase, but there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for TA and EG, with pressure on the upside [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 50 yuan, NR fell 35 yuan, and BR rose 25 yuan. The US - EU trade agreement and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the impact of typhoons on production areas, affect the market. The demand for downstream tires is stable, and the export support weakens. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to position risks during the holiday [5][6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2252 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas supply is affected by device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The methanol price is expected to enter a stage - bottom, and the basis will strengthen. A strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins can be considered [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins shows different trends. The supply will remain high, and the demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The overall situation is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in different regions shows different trends. The domestic real - estate construction has a slow recovery, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies. The supply is high, and the total inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 25 - 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Iraq's Kurdish region will resume exporting oil to Turkey from this Saturday, with an expected export volume of about 230,000 barrels per day [13]. - Ukraine attacked Russian ports on the Black Sea coast, paralyzing oil shipping facilities near the Novorossiysk port, with a daily export volume of about 2 million barrels of crude oil [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and analyzes the basis changes over time [31][32][35]. - **4.3 Inter - contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc., analyzing the spread changes between different contracts [45][46][47]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [60][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [70][72][74]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional responsibilities [76][77][78].

Group 1 - The U.S. government, under President Trump, will impose a 100% tariff on all imported branded or patented drugs starting October 1, unless companies establish manufacturing plants in the U.S. [2] - A 25% tariff will be applied to all imported heavy trucks, protecting brands like Peterbilt, Kenworth, and Freightliner from external competition [2] - Additional tariffs include a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 30% tariff on soft furniture, aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing processes [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has confirmed a 15% tariff on EU imported cars and automotive products, effective from August 1, as part of a trade agreement with the EU [3] - Brazil's Finance Minister criticized the U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products, stating that they would ultimately harm American consumers and lead to increased prices for everyday goods [3][4] - Brazil has developed emergency plans to support domestic industries affected by U.S. tariffs, with two-thirds of its exports remaining unaffected by the new tariffs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the adjustment of the U.S. tariff system, which exempts various metals and graphite while including silicon products in the tax list [1] - The new policy will officially take effect on the following Monday, covering key product categories including metals, aircraft parts, generic drugs, and specialty spices that cannot be produced domestically [1] - Gold bars have been explicitly exempted from tariffs, addressing previous concerns about potential import taxes that caused market confusion [1] Group 2 - Key materials such as graphite and tungsten, widely used in aerospace, consumer electronics, and medical devices, have received tariff exemptions [1] - Several pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics, are also granted new tariff reductions, despite being subjects of an ongoing trade investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce [1] - A procedural change has been introduced to enhance the efficiency of trade agreement enforcement, allowing the U.S. Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce to act directly on framework agreements without needing individual presidential signatures [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump signed an executive order to adjust the scope of import tariffs and implement a trade and security framework agreement with foreign trade partners [1][3]. Group 2 - The executive order allows for adjustments to tariffs based on agreements with foreign trade partners, including the possibility of reducing some reciprocal tariffs to zero [3]. - Certain products eligible for zero reciprocal tariffs include those that cannot be produced in the U.S. or are insufficient to meet domestic demand, specific agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patented items used in pharmaceuticals [3]. - The Department of Commerce, the Trade Representative's Office, and other relevant agencies will continuously monitor trade partners' compliance and trade deficits, reporting to Trump with further adjustment recommendations [3]. - All departments and agencies are required to take necessary actions to implement the order, ensuring that tariff adjustments and policy implementations align with legal and national interests [3]. - Trump emphasized that these measures aim to address a national emergency, protect the U.S. economy and national security, and promote cooperation with foreign trade partners through trade and security agreements [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump, which adjusts the scope of import tariffs and establishes a framework for trade and security agreements with foreign partners [3][4]. Group 1: Executive Order Details - The executive order allows for adjustments to tariffs based on agreements with foreign trade partners, including the potential reduction of certain reciprocal tariffs to zero [4]. - Tariffs related to Section 232, specifically on steel and aluminum products, will not be modified until a final agreement is signed [4]. - Products eligible for zero reciprocal tariffs include those that cannot be produced in the U.S. or are insufficient to meet domestic demand, specific agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patented pharmaceutical items [5]. Group 2: Monitoring and Implementation - The Department of Commerce, the Trade Representative's Office, and other relevant agencies will continuously monitor the compliance of trade partners, trade deficits, and other related factors, reporting back to Trump with recommendations for further adjustments [6]. - All departments and agencies are required to take necessary actions to implement the order, ensuring that tariff adjustments and policy implementations align with legal and national interests [7]. Group 3: Purpose of the Measures - Trump emphasized that these measures are intended to address a national emergency, protect the U.S. economy and national security, and promote cooperation with foreign trade partners through trade and security agreements [8].