2026 年 1 月 13 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04 轻仓试空 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,748.0 | 1.03% | 16,668 | 13,344 | -4,359 | 1.25 | 0.64 | | | EC2604 | 1,280.8 | 11.30% | 64,695 | 37,092 | 8,071 | 1.74 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/1/12 | | ...

电池产品的调整相对缓和，将从2026年4月1日起将退税率由9%下调至6%，并在2027年1月1日全面取 消。这一政策调整的背景是新能源行业面临的内外双重压力。 国内光伏与锂电池相关产品的全球产能占比已近绝对主导，光伏上游在全球产能中占比超95%、中游超 90%、组件超80%，锂电池则约占三分之二。 来源：新浪财经 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，光伏产品自2026年4月1日起，将全面取消增值税出口退税。这距离 2024年11月出口退税率从13%降至9%，仅一年有余。 根据中国光伏行业协会咨询专家的测算，仅2025年1-10月，中国光伏出口额为244.2亿美元，按9%的退 税率计算，涉及退税额约22亿美元（约153亿元人民币）。 中国光伏行业协会认为，部分企业在出口过程中，将出口退税额折算为对外议价空间，导致原本用于对 冲国内增值税负担的财政资金在议价环节被让渡给境外采购方。 政策调整对企业的影响程度，与其获得的出口退税额直接相关。在光伏组件四大厂商中，晶科能源2025 年上半年应收出口退税款期末账面价值达9.13亿元，位居首位。 天合光能2025年上半年应收增值税出口退税期初账面价值为0.21亿元，晶澳科技同期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products reflects the optimization and transformation of the government's support for the new energy industry, aiming to promote high-quality development in sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [1][2][3] Group 2 - The announcement states that from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely canceled, marking the first time this has occurred since the policy was introduced in October 2013, where companies previously enjoyed up to a 50% rebate [2][3] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that the cancellation of export rebates is expected to help stabilize overseas market prices and reduce the risk of trade frictions, while also alleviating the financial burden on the state [3][5] - The adjustment in export tax rebates is seen as a policy to promote high-quality development in the industry, with a warning effect already observed from the previous reduction in rebate rates [3][5] Group 3 - The policy adjustment for battery products includes a phased reduction of the export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, aimed at guiding the industry away from mere scale expansion and towards enhancing product technology and value [5][6] - Major battery export companies include CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with CATL reporting a domestic gross margin of 23% and an overseas margin of 29% in Q1 2025 [6] - The upcoming changes in export tax rebates may lead to a short-term surge in export orders as companies rush to fulfill shipments before the new rates take effect, potentially benefiting the demand for lithium carbonate [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and other products reflects the optimization and transformation of the country's support for the new energy industry, which will further promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors [1] Photovoltaic Industry - The announcement states that from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely canceled, marking the first comprehensive cancellation since the industry was included in the export rebate policy in October 2013 [2] - The export rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry began in October 2013, allowing companies to enjoy a rebate rate of up to 50%. However, due to increasing competition, the rebate policy has been gradually optimized, with a previous reduction from 13% to 9% announced on November 15, 2024 [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the industry has faced fierce competition in overseas markets, leading to a "volume increase and price decrease" trend, where some companies engaged in low-price competition, effectively turning the export rebate into a subsidy for foreign buyers [2] - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a policy to promote high-quality development in the industry, with the adjustment expected to help stabilize export prices and reduce the risk of trade frictions [3] - The industry has begun to show signs of improvement, with upstream prices recovering to reasonable levels and downstream prices trending upward [3] Lithium Battery Industry - The announcement also includes a phased reduction in the export rebate for battery products, decreasing from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and completely canceling it by January 1, 2027 [5] - The adjustment aims to guide the battery industry away from pure scale expansion and alleviate the pressure of homogenized competition, encouraging companies to enhance product technology and value [5] - Major battery exporters include companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech, with CATL reporting a gross margin of 23% for domestic business and 29% for overseas business in the first quarter of 2025 [5] Short-term Market Dynamics - There is an expectation of a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term as companies accelerate production and order fulfillment before the policy takes effect, potentially leading to a spike in export data [6] - The demand for lithium carbonate may see a short-term boost due to increased battery orders before the rebate cancellation, although the long-term impact may suppress demand due to increased costs [6] - Current inventory levels for lithium carbonate are rising, with a reported weekly inventory of approximately 110,000 tons as of January 8, indicating a shift towards marginal accumulation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products marks a significant policy shift in China's solar industry, reflecting the sector's maturity and competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely eliminated, with a transitional reduction for battery products from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, before being fully removed on January 1, 2027 [1][2]. - The export tax rebate policy for battery products has been adjusted, indicating a recognition of the unique characteristics of this segment within the industry [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is seen as a measure to combat "involution" within the industry, as companies have shifted from aggressive low-price bidding to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, leading to price recovery [2]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total export value of photovoltaic products was $24.42 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.2%, which is a significant improvement compared to a 34.5% decline in the same period of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The battery segment is expected to face greater operational strategy adjustments during the transition period, with companies likely to cut costs in response to the reduced rebate rate [3]. - The elimination of the rebate is anticipated to accelerate the phase-out of outdated production capacities lacking technological advantages, leading to more pronounced price elasticity and profit fluctuations in the battery segment compared to the module segment [3]. - The long-term outlook suggests a shift in China's renewable energy industry from merely exporting products to establishing localized production globally, prompting companies to expand their capacities in regions like Europe, the Middle East, and North America to mitigate trade barriers and rising domestic export costs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled [1] - The VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [1] - Starting January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will also be canceled [1] Group 2: Consumption Tax Policy - The announcement includes a list of products subject to the new policies [2] - For products subject to consumption tax, the export consumption tax policy will remain unchanged, continuing to apply the consumption tax rebate (exemption) policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event addresses the challenges of customs regulation and tax compliance faced by companies expanding into international markets, emphasizing the importance of risk mitigation and policy benefits [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Safeguarding Enterprises Going Abroad: Customs and Tax Practical Training and 'Lighting Up Africa' Wind Power Storage Industry Promotion Committee Awarding Ceremony" took place in Changsha [1]. - It was co-hosted by multiple organizations including the Changsha Council for the Promotion of International Trade and attracted nearly 130 representatives from government, industry, and media, with over 4,100 online views [2]. Group 2: Training Content - The training provided systematic guidance through a combination of policy interpretation, practical operations, and expert Q&A, focusing on the actual needs of companies going abroad [2]. - Experts discussed the impact of technical trade measures, RCEP preferential origin certificate rules, and export tax rebate policies, directly addressing customs and tax challenges faced by enterprises [2]. Group 3: Interactive Session and Future Initiatives - During the interactive Q&A session, participants actively inquired about overseas market technical standards, RCEP cumulative rules, and tax refund processes, receiving detailed responses from experts [3]. - The event also announced resource connection channels for future services to support companies going abroad, aiming to establish a long-term service mechanism [3]. - The establishment of the "Lighting Up Africa" Wind Power Storage Industry Promotion Committee signifies a strengthened collaborative mechanism for advancing national projects in Hunan, providing organizational support for companies in the African renewable energy market [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significance of Indonesia's tax refund policy for companies exporting commercial cooking machines, particularly for the well-known brand Xiaozhiyun Chao [1][9] Group 2 - The basic situation of the tax refund policy indicates that Indonesia has established a series of tax refund policies to encourage imports and promote trade development, allowing companies to apply for refunds on certain taxes like VAT and customs duties under specific conditions [3][9] Group 3 - Conditions for applying for tax refunds require that the exported commercial cooking machines meet Indonesian customs' quality and standard requirements, with Xiaozhiyun Chao focusing on quality control to comply with both international and local standards [4][9] Group 4 - The process for applying for tax refunds is complex, involving submission of a refund application to Indonesian customs after export, along with detailed documentation, and companies may utilize professional customs brokers or tax agents to ensure accuracy and timeliness [5][9] Group 5 - The significance of the tax refund policy for Xiaozhiyun Chao lies in its ability to reduce export costs, enhance price competitiveness, and reflect the Indonesian government's supportive attitude towards trade, thereby boosting the company's confidence in long-term market development [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected performance, achieving profitability in Q2 2025, with a revenue of RMB 4.31 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2% [6][7]. - The gross margin significantly improved to 7.4%, up 6.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the first profitable quarter since Q4 2023 [6]. - Despite the positive results, uncertainties remain for the second half of the year, leading to a maintained Neutral rating and a target price of RMB 16.50, reflecting a potential upside of 12.6% [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 27,170 million in 2023, RMB 11,155 million in 2024, RMB 19,370 million in 2025E, RMB 30,386 million in 2026E, and RMB 35,905 million in 2027E, with a significant growth expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit is projected to be RMB 757 million in 2023, a loss of RMB 5,319 million in 2024, and a loss of RMB 337 million in 2025E, with a return to profitability expected in 2026 [5][13]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover from -9.9% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025E, and further improve to 13.8% in 2026E [13]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 26,556.06 million [4]. - Year-to-date performance shows an increase of 32.94% [4]. Component Business Forecast - The company’s ABC component sales are projected to grow from 0.5 GW in 2023 to 20.0 GW in 2025E, with unit prices expected to decrease from RMB 1.22 to RMB 0.73 per watt during the same period [8].

Summary of the Conference Call for Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The aluminum industry is facing significant challenges due to changes in export tax policies and tariffs, particularly affecting exports to North America, which remains a dominant market for the company [2][4][29]. Key Points Export Performance - In Q1, the company's export volume decreased by 30% year-on-year due to tariff impacts, with North America still holding a major share: Canada (50%), Mexico (30%), and the US and other regions (20%) [2][4]. - Despite a 13% price increase, 70% of customers accepted the price hike to continue cooperation, with Canadian market demand recovering to 75%-80% of previous levels [2][13][14]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company primarily exports 3xxx, 5xxx, and 6xxx aluminum products to the US, with 10% of exports being non-dumping products despite a 70% tariff [2][5][10]. - The annual production of 3xxx, 5xxx, and 6xxx products not affected by US anti-dumping measures is approximately 250,000 tons [11]. Pricing and Cost Structure - North American pricing is based on the LME average price plus a premium, while domestic pricing references Shanghai aluminum prices, leading to a price differential [2][8][7]. - The processing fees for 6xxx products in North America range from $1,000 to $1,300, significantly higher than domestic processing fees of 3,500 to 4,000 RMB [6][26]. Market Challenges - Overseas demand is gradually declining, with processing fee outlooks appearing pessimistic due to rising costs and reduced profit margins [17][30]. - The first quarter saw a significant drop in spot premiums from $228 per ton to $182 per ton in the second quarter, indicating weaker overseas demand [21]. Regional Export Insights - The company exports approximately 6,000 to 7,000 tons per month to Asia, accounting for about 30% of total exports, with key markets including South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia [12]. - The remaining 30% of exports are distributed across Oceania and Europe, including both EU and non-EU countries [12]. Future Outlook - The company does not plan to expand overseas due to geopolitical uncertainties and the high costs associated with establishing foreign production facilities [27]. - There is a noted trend of order backflow to China as some customers seek to avoid increased costs from tariffs [15]. Competitive Landscape - The US government is attempting to bring manufacturing back to the US through tariffs, with major companies like Novelis and US Steel expanding their operations [24]. - The overall competition in the aluminum processing sector is intensifying, particularly as domestic customers reduce exports, leading to increased competition in the local market [31][32]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry is navigating a complex landscape of tariffs, changing demand, and pricing pressures, with a cautious outlook for future profitability and market conditions [29][30].