Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a strategy to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior in her loan applications as the reason for her removal [1]. - The dismissal is seen as part of a broader strategy to gain control over the Federal Reserve, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee, by replacing Cook and potentially other members with his allies [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index experienced a slight decline, while gold prices initially rose but later retraced some gains, indicating market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [6]. - There is skepticism in the market regarding Trump's ability to fully control the Federal Reserve, despite the potential for significant impacts on the dollar if Cook is ultimately removed [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump believes that a weaker dollar and lower interest rates would benefit U.S. manufacturing, although former Treasury Secretary Yellen has expressed doubts about the feasibility of this outcome [8]. - The U.S. faces a significant debt burden, with projections indicating that government debt could reach 160% of GDP by 2050, raising concerns about the attractiveness of investing in the U.S. under such conditions [8].

Group 1 - The recent significant downward revision of non-farm payroll data has intensified the Federal Reserve's concerns about economic growth, while the tail risks of inflation are decreasing [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from inflation to balancing its dual mandate of employment and inflation, with a forecast of three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points starting in September [1] - The current high real yields provide substantial room for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, maintaining a restrictive policy even after three cuts [1] Group 2 - The company maintains a neutral outlook on U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds due to their attractive yields [1] - High-quality bonds are viewed as important tools for portfolio risk diversification, helping to hedge against macro risks arising from economic slowdown [1][6] - Strategies include locking in attractive yields before rate cuts, extending duration preferences due to the highest level of the yield curve spread in three years, and utilizing high-quality bonds to mitigate growth slowdown risks [3][4][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 2. Report's Core View - The core view is to provide the latest price changes of international crude oil futures and relevant news, and give an investment suggestion of short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.07 per barrel, a 1.69% decline, at $62.35 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.81 per barrel, a 1.21% decline, at $65.79 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.87% decline, at 480.90 yuan per barrel [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The value range of trend strength is [- 2,2] [2][3] API Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2417000 barrels, expected - 1587000 barrels, and the previous value was 1519000 barrels. There are also data on API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, refined oil inventory, heating oil inventory, crude oil imports, and refined oil imports [2] International News - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Macron suggests the meeting be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán discussed Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and Budapest as a possible meeting place. The EU Commission spokesperson said to continue pressuring Russia, and NATO and EU accession issues should be decided by Ukraine. Trump believes all indicators show that interest rates need to be significantly lowered. Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Wang Yi and said that India and China are partners rather than rivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations for at least two cuts remaining this year, despite a potential rise in inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation and Rate Cut Dynamics - The report indicates that even with a modest month-over-month CPI increase of 0.1%, the year-over-year CPI could rise to approximately 2.9% by the end of the year, up from 2.3%-2.4% in the first half [1][4]. - The combination of rising inflation and falling interest rates is historically rare, occurring only 16% of the time since 1973 [1][8]. - The analysis suggests that using the core PCE price index may show an earlier upward trend in year-over-year inflation [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historically, the scenario of rising inflation with falling rates has occurred only once since 1973, during the period from late 2007 to early 2008, when the Fed cut rates despite rising inflation due to signs of weakness in the housing and labor markets [8]. - In this context, the dollar typically depreciates, with an average decline of 1.6% over six months following the rate cut, and the trend of dollar weakness often continues for one to three months after the initial cut [9][11]. - The current year is projected to see the largest annual decline in the dollar since 1999, with a strong correlation to the dollar's performance in 2007 [9].

Core Viewpoint - WKK INTL (HOLD) (00532.HK) expects a significant improvement in financial performance for the interim period ending June 30, 2025, with a narrowed net loss and a projected profit before tax, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency and demand for its products [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to equity holders of approximately HKD 11 million for the interim period, a reduction of about 87% compared to a net loss of HKD 84.1 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The expected profit before tax is approximately HKD 12.7 million, contrasting with a loss of HKD 70.9 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting improved operational performance [1] Operational Factors - The increase in revenue from the trading and distribution segment is attributed to rising product demand from subsidiaries in Taiwan and mainland China, driven by clients increasing inventory levels and capital expenditures [1] - The manufacturing segment has significantly reduced its operating losses despite a slight decline in revenue, showcasing effective cost-cutting measures and enhanced operational efficiency in response to geopolitical pressures and global economic instability [1] Cost Structure - A decrease in overall interest rates during the interim period has led to a significant reduction in the company's net financing costs compared to the same period in 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rationale for purchasing 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is based on the expectation that interest rates will decline at some point in the future [1] Group 1 - The global head of fixed income at JPMorgan, Michelle, emphasizes the strategic timing for bond purchases [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan, advocates for purchasing U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds based on the expectation that interest rates will decline at some point in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates a significant potential decrease in interest rates over the next year [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes [1] - A decrease in interest rates may lead to increased borrowing and spending, potentially stimulating economic growth [1] - Financial markets may react positively to the prospect of lower interest rates, influencing investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggests that interest rates are expected to decline significantly over the next year [1] Group 1 - The anticipated decrease in interest rates could have a substantial impact on borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - A lower interest rate environment may stimulate economic growth by encouraging spending and investment [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates a shift in monetary policy that could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that there may be a potential decrease in interest rates, suggesting a favorable economic outlook [1] - Yellen described the current inflation as "very mild," which could further support the case for lower interest rates [1] Economic Outlook - The possibility of declining interest rates could stimulate economic growth and investment opportunities [1] - Mild inflation rates may lead to increased consumer spending and business investments, positively impacting various sectors [1]