Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments, with notable growth in financial totals and a stable RMB exchange rate [1][2] - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [1] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 basis points and 60 basis points year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating an optimization in credit structure [1] Group 2 - The next steps involve implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample, and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable price levels and improving the interest rate adjustment framework to lower overall financing costs [2] - The central bank aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, supporting sectors like technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] Group 3 - The exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions is crucial for maintaining market stability and preventing systemic financial risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to keep prices at a reasonable level [2] - The central bank aims to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and improve the market-based interest rate formation transmission mechanism [2] - The report stresses the need to ensure effective transmission of monetary policy, improve fund utilization efficiency, and balance financial support for the real economy with maintaining financial health [2] Group 2: Structural Policies and Support - In May, the People's Bank of China introduced a series of financial policy measures, including structural policy tools, with a focus on supporting service consumption and the elderly care industry with a loan quota of 500 billion yuan [4] - The central bank plans to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance in the second half of the year, focusing on reducing financing costs for businesses and increasing credit accessibility to stimulate domestic demand [4] - Various monetary policy tools, such as reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities, will be utilized to enhance liquidity management in the short to medium term [4] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Financial Stability - The report advocates for a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to stabilize the yuan at a reasonable and balanced level [5] - The central bank will explore expanding its macro-prudential and financial stability functions to maintain market stability and prevent systemic financial risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and maintain stability in the financial environment [2][5]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has adopted various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable growth in money and credit, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][4]. - The central bank has lowered policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points and structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which has contributed to a decrease in both personal housing fund loan rates and overall financing costs [2][3]. Credit Structure Optimization - The establishment of a 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care, along with an increase of 300 billion yuan in re-loan quotas for technological innovation, aims to support key domestic demand sectors [3][7]. - The PBOC is focusing on optimizing the credit structure to enhance support for consumption and technological innovation [3][7]. Financial Stability and Risk Management - The PBOC is committed to risk prevention and resolution, enhancing the monitoring and early warning systems for financial risks, and ensuring stable growth in financial aggregates [4][6]. - As of June, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans at 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. Future Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain a balance between short-term and long-term goals, ensuring the stability of the banking system while supporting the real economy [5][6]. - The central bank will continue to refine the interest rate adjustment framework and enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to lower financing costs [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The report outlines the need to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy rates [1] - It highlights the importance of enhancing the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [1] Financial Costs - The report aims to reduce the cost of bank liabilities and promote a decrease in the overall social financing costs [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2] - The PBOC's report emphasizes balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [1][2] - A package of ten financial policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools to stabilize market expectations and support domestic demand [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [4][5] - Financial institutions are encouraged to meet diverse funding needs from both supply and demand sides of consumption [4][6] - The introduction of a structural policy tool aimed at increasing financial support for key service sectors and the elderly care industry is expected to stimulate consumption [5][6] Group 3 - The PBOC is adjusting the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to return to its original role as a liquidity tool, moving away from its previous status as a policy interest rate tool [7][8] - The report outlines the evolution of MLF over the past decade, indicating a shift from a supplementary tool to a primary monetary policy instrument [7][8] Group 4 - The report addresses the need for improved bond market construction to support healthy development, highlighting the risks associated with bond market yield fluctuations [9][10] - It suggests that large banks should engage more in bond trading to help maintain market balance and promote reasonable pricing [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates is expected to lower the overall financing costs for the real economy and stabilize the net interest margins of commercial banks [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR and Deposit Rate Changes - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1]. - Multiple banks have announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, which aligns with the LPR decrease [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The LPR reduction is anticipated to lead to lower loan rates for both enterprises and residents, thereby reducing financing costs and stimulating investment and consumption [2]. - The decline in housing loan rates, following the LPR drop and previous adjustments to public housing loan rates, is expected to enhance consumer spending capacity and willingness [2]. Group 3: Impact on Banks - The simultaneous reduction in deposit rates by major banks is seen as a measure to maintain stable net interest margins amid historically low financing costs [3]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in April, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for further LPR reductions if economic growth pressures increase in the second half of the year, although expectations should be moderated regarding the pace and extent of future rate changes [4]. - The central bank's focus will remain on balancing multiple objectives, including growth stabilization and maintaining net interest margins [4].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.85%, delaying a potential new surge in housing prices [5][8] - The decision to maintain the interest rate comes as inflation has returned to the target range of 2% to 3%, indicating that previous rate hikes have had an effect [5][8] - The RBA's monetary policy is aimed at controlling inflation, and while some believe it is time to lower rates, the committee prefers to wait for more information to confirm inflation trends [8][10] Group 2 - Melbourne's housing market is perceived as offering better value compared to Sydney, with detached houses being significantly cheaper [3][10] - The price dynamics in Melbourne show a decline in housing prices, contrasting with the 7.8% increase in Adelaide's housing prices over the past year [10][12] - The differences in housing market performance across regions are attributed to supply and demand dynamics rather than the overall interest rate policy [12][13] Group 3 - The increase in housing stock in Victoria, along with a decrease in population during the pandemic, has led to an increase in per capita housing availability [13] - In contrast, Western Australia is experiencing a decline in per capita housing availability, reaching historical lows [13] - The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) may emerge as a favorable option for homebuyers in the future, potentially mirroring Melbourne's current situation [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is prepared to implement flexible measures in response to a rapid increase in long-term interest rates, which may include increasing bond purchases and conducting fixed-rate bond purchase operations [1] Group 1 - The BOJ will consider increasing bond purchases as a response to rising long-term interest rates [1] - The central bank may also engage in fixed-rate bond purchase operations to manage interest rate fluctuations [1] - Additionally, the BOJ plans to utilize funding supply operations related to concentrated collateral [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 4.25%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and concerns over inflation and global geopolitical tensions [1][3][10] Economic Environment - The UK economy is facing a complex situation with a weakening job market and slowing wage growth, yet inflation remains above the Bank's target of 2% [3][4] - Global factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tech decoupling are impacting the UK's economic landscape, making it more challenging for the Bank to adjust interest rates [6][7] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current stance of the Bank of England is characterized as a "tactical wait," as inflation has not sufficiently decreased, and there are risks associated with lowering rates too quickly [3][4] - The Bank's decision to keep rates steady is seen as a strategy to control inflation expectations and avoid triggering a new wave of inflation or asset bubbles [4][6] Structural Economic Issues - The UK economy is losing growth drivers, with diminishing contributions from traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors are lagging behind competitors [7][9] - The government's limited fiscal space and reliance on the Bank's monetary policy for economic stimulus further complicate the situation [7][9] Market Expectations - Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential rate cuts, but the Bank of England is entering a "cautious easing" phase, where minor adjustments may not yield significant effects [9][10] - The upcoming months will be critical for assessing the Bank's ability to navigate economic challenges and maintain policy independence amid external pressures [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fluctuated. The rise was mainly due to the policy benefits brought by the simultaneous reduction of LPR and deposit rates, which strengthened the market's expectation of a further decline in the interest rate center, boosting medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds and short - term Treasury bond futures. However, as policies were implemented, combined with increased speculation on Sino - US negotiations and future economic data, risk appetite recovered, increasing the upward pressure on long - bond yields and causing the futures bond trend to become more differentiated and volatile. Additionally, the approaching supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on the fiscal side intensified market concerns about duration pressure. Overall, the subsequent trend still depends on economic data performance and fiscal policy rhythm [3]. - For the trading strategy, the 2509 contract is neutral in the context of falling repo rates and fluctuating Treasury bond futures prices. Traders are advised to pay attention to the widening of the basis. In terms of hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a 1.00% increase (+14.29%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a 0.50% increase (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.23, with a 0.53 increase (+0.54%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1980, with a 0.008 increase (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a 0.10 decrease (-6.31%); DR007 was 1.55, with a 0.11 decrease (-6.90%); R007 was 1.76, with a 0.21 decrease (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, with a 0.01 increase (+0.33%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 0.00 increase (+0.33%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.69 yuan, and 119.45 yuan respectively. The price changes were - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and +0.03% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.070 yuan, - 0.052 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, and - 0.162 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the central bank conducted a 454.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repo Rates**: The main - term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.410%, 1.515%, 1.579%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repo rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report provides figures on the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, including (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [35][40][41][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][46][57]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][56][59]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][69]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77][79].