Group 1 - The core focus is on the overall interest rate path rather than individual meeting rate decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to open higher after several days of decline, with investors awaiting Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on interest rate direction [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are cautious as they anticipate Powell's "cautious approach" regarding interest rates, emphasizing the need to observe data due to the recent impacts of tariffs [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about the idea of a rate cut next month, indicating a more conservative outlook on monetary policy [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Recent earnings reports from major retailers like Walmart showed mixed results, contributing to the overall market sentiment [1] - The three major stock indices are expected to close lower for the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq likely to record their worst weekly performance of the month [1]

Group 1 - Global financial markets are in a cautious state, with investors awaiting key insights on interest rate paths from the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 index has experienced a rebound due to bargain buying, which has also led to a mild increase in Asian tech stocks [1] - Despite the cautious sentiment, traders in the interest rate swap market are betting on a high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, highlighting a tension between market expectations and the central bank's decisions on inflation [2] Group 2 - Technology stocks, which have been the main drivers of the recent market rally, are currently struggling, with the Nasdaq 100 index declining for two consecutive trading days [3] - A measure of the so-called "seven giants" in tech has fallen for four consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak since mid-April [3] - Concerns about a potential bubble in U.S. stocks have been raised, with warnings that adjustments may not be imminent despite the current market conditions [3]

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Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to provide important signals regarding the future interest rate path from the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have intensified, with over 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting according to federal funds futures pricing [1][3] - The stock market, particularly interest rate-sensitive sectors, has seen a significant rise due to these optimistic expectations [3] Group 2 - There is a risk of significant market volatility if Fed Chair Powell's speech diverges from market expectations regarding rate cuts [3][4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Jackson Hole meeting may serve as a platform for the Fed to counter excessive easing expectations, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance from Powell [3][4] - The Fed aims to maintain flexibility in its policy decisions, especially before the release of key employment and inflation data [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. PCE price index for June increased by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest growth since December 2024, and exceeding the expected value of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index for June rose by 2.8% year-on-year, the highest increase since February 2025, also surpassing both the expected and previous values of 2.7% [1] - Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. grew by 0.1% month-on-month in June, aligning with expectations [1] Economic Indicators - The acceleration in inflation rates contrasts with minimal growth in consumer spending, highlighting a divergence among policymakers regarding the interest rate path [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around the support level of $3300 after a four-day decline, indicating a potential reversal with a small bullish candlestick pattern [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent tariff agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU have lowered overall tariff levels compared to previous threats, reducing short-term market risk aversion and potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, or upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not made any prior commitments regarding a specific interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes its data-dependent approach to monetary policy decisions [1] - The central bank is focused on achieving its inflation target and will adjust rates as necessary based on economic conditions [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the uncertainty in the economic outlook, which may influence future rate decisions [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The market is focused on the upcoming US PPI data, which will directly impact the future movement of gold prices [1] - Gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA around $3320, halting a decline from a three-week high [1] - If gold can stabilize above the resistance zone of $3342-$3343, it may test the $3365-$3366 area, with a further target of $3400 [1] - Current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI have not formed clear bullish signals, indicating limited upward momentum [1] - A drop below the $3320 support could lead to a decline towards the $3300 level, with further support at $3283-$3282 and a potential revisit to the July low of $3247 [1] - Gold's movement is influenced by both fundamental factors, such as Trump's tariff policies raising inflation expectations, and technical factors, with the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates limiting price rebounds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - The recent rebound in oil prices was supported by a surprising decrease in US API crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.6 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase [5] - This indicates strong demand for US crude oil, contributing to market confidence [5] - The technical outlook for US crude shows a double bottom structure around $66, with prices stabilizing above the 20-day moving average and breaking a short-term downtrend [5] - Despite signs of a rebound, uncertainties surrounding tariffs may limit the extent of the price increase [7] - Close attention is needed on EIA official inventory data and changes in US and European consumption data to assess the sustainability of the rebound [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]