Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around the support level of $3300 after a four-day decline, indicating a potential reversal with a small bullish candlestick pattern [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent tariff agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU have lowered overall tariff levels compared to previous threats, reducing short-term market risk aversion and potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, or upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not made any prior commitments regarding a specific interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes its data-dependent approach to monetary policy decisions [1] - The central bank is focused on achieving its inflation target and will adjust rates as necessary based on economic conditions [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the uncertainty in the economic outlook, which may influence future rate decisions [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The market is focused on the upcoming US PPI data, which will directly impact the future movement of gold prices [1] - Gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA around $3320, halting a decline from a three-week high [1] - If gold can stabilize above the resistance zone of $3342-$3343, it may test the $3365-$3366 area, with a further target of $3400 [1] - Current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI have not formed clear bullish signals, indicating limited upward momentum [1] - A drop below the $3320 support could lead to a decline towards the $3300 level, with further support at $3283-$3282 and a potential revisit to the July low of $3247 [1] - Gold's movement is influenced by both fundamental factors, such as Trump's tariff policies raising inflation expectations, and technical factors, with the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates limiting price rebounds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - The recent rebound in oil prices was supported by a surprising decrease in US API crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.6 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase [5] - This indicates strong demand for US crude oil, contributing to market confidence [5] - The technical outlook for US crude shows a double bottom structure around $66, with prices stabilizing above the 20-day moving average and breaking a short-term downtrend [5] - Despite signs of a rebound, uncertainties surrounding tariffs may limit the extent of the price increase [7] - Close attention is needed on EIA official inventory data and changes in US and European consumption data to assess the sustainability of the rebound [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England should disclose the interest rate path of policymakers to enhance transparency in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The suggestion aims to provide clearer guidance to markets and the public regarding future interest rate decisions [1] - This approach could potentially improve the effectiveness of monetary policy by aligning expectations with actual policy actions [1] - The call for transparency reflects a broader trend among central banks to communicate more openly about their policy frameworks [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that there will be no commitment to future interest rate paths, indicating that data will reveal the answers [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank is currently assessing economic data to guide its future interest rate decisions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a flexible approach to monetary policy, emphasizing data dependency rather than predetermined paths [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that there will be no commitment to future interest rate paths, emphasizing that data will reveal the answers [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank is focused on data-driven decision-making regarding interest rates [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a flexible approach to monetary policy, indicating that future rate changes will depend on economic indicators [1] - The statement reflects the current uncertainty in the economic environment, highlighting the importance of real-time data analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that there are multiple potential paths for future interest rates, depending on inflation and labor market conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Powell suggested that if inflation does not turn out to be as strong as expected, an early rate cut may be advisable [1] - In the case of a weak labor market, early rate cuts are also recommended [1] - Conversely, if both inflation and the labor market remain strong, rate cuts may be delayed [1]