Core Insights - The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicates that the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is at 48.5%, which is a decrease from April's 48.7% [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for May stands at 48.5%, reflecting a slight decline from the previous month's figure of 48.7% [1]

Core Insights - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with a PMI reading of 48.5%, down from 48.7% in April, remaining below the 50% threshold that signifies expansion [1][2] Manufacturing Activity - The new orders index stands at 47.6%, showing a slight improvement from April's 47.2%, but still indicating contraction for the fourth month in a row [1] - The production index increased to 45.4% in May from 44% in April, yet remains in a contraction phase [1] - The prices index is at 69.4%, slightly lower than April's 69.8%, indicating ongoing price expansion [1] Employment and Orders - The employment index rose marginally to 46.8%, but continues to reflect contraction, suggesting companies are still opting for layoffs to manage costs [1][2] - The backlog of orders index increased to 47.1%, indicating a slight easing in the contraction of backlogged orders [1] Supplier and Inventory Dynamics - The supplier delivery index recorded 56.1%, up from 55.2% in April, indicating slower deliveries, which is typically associated with economic recovery and increased customer demand [2] - The inventory index dropped significantly from 50.8% in April to 46.7%, entering a contraction phase [2] External Demand and Export Orders - The new export orders index fell to 40.1%, down 3 percentage points from April, while the import index plummeted to 39.9%, a drop of 7.2 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand [2] - The overall manufacturing GDP shows that 57% is in contraction, significantly higher than April's 41% [3] Sector Performance - Only the petroleum and coal products and machinery sectors experienced expansion in May, while seven sectors contracted, including paper products and transportation equipment [3] - The sectors that showed growth include plastics and rubber products, nonmetallic mineral products, and electrical equipment [3] Business Sentiment and Challenges - Manufacturers report that tariffs, economic uncertainty, and supply chain issues are ongoing challenges affecting their operations [4] - Companies are in a "wait-and-see" mode, with business activities slowing down due to price instability and uncertain trade policies [4] - Concerns about potential supply shortages in consumer goods persist if trade agreements between the U.S. and China are not reached [4]

然而，当把目光投向未来，经济前景却不容乐观。全球经济增长放缓的大趋势下，美国经济难以独善其身。国际贸 易紧张局势持续升级，特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅引发了贸易伙伴的反制措施，也对美国国内企业的供应链和 生产成本造成冲击。许多依赖进出口的企业面临订单减少、利润下滑的困境，这将直接影响企业未来的投资和招聘 计划。此外，科技行业的竞争加剧、地缘政治风险等因素，也在不断侵蚀美国经济的增长动力。在这种情况下，当 前稳健的劳动力市场数据似乎更像是对过去经济良好状态的一种反映，而无法完全代表未来的经济走向。随着前瞻 性经济指标，如制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）、企业盈利预期等逐渐恶化，经济陷入疲软的风险正在不断积聚。 一旦经济疲软的迹象愈发明显，美联储在今年晚些时候恢复宽松周期的可能性将显著增加。宽松货币政策，如降 息、量化宽松等，是美联储应对经济衰退、刺激经济增长的重要手段。当经济增长乏力、就业市场出现滑坡时，美 联储可能会通过降低利率，鼓励企业增加投资、消费者扩大消费，从而促进经济复苏；量化宽松政策则可以增加市 场上的货币供应量，缓解流动性紧张，稳定金融市场。尽管美联储目前拥有劳动力市场稳健这一 "缓冲垫"，但面对 ...

Group 1 - The official manufacturing PMI for April fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4, down 0.8 percentage points from March, marking the lowest in three months [2] - The central bank has maintained a net injection of over 1 trillion yuan in the past five trading days to stabilize the funding environment, with the latest reverse repo operation amounting to 530.8 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50% [2] - Public funds have actively participated in the bond market, with net purchases of interest rate bonds reaching 44.4 billion yuan on April 29, indicating a shift in sentiment compared to a net sell-off of 3 billion yuan on April 28 [3] Group 2 - The recent PMI data highlights the impact of tariffs and trade tensions, leading to an expected acceleration in government bond issuance, particularly supporting technology, consumption, and foreign trade sectors [2] - The 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to decline to around 1.5%, with a potential interest rate cut of approximately 20 basis points expected in May or June [2] - The overall trading theme in the bond market is influenced by macroeconomic data and stable funding prices, with mixed performance observed in government bond futures on April 30 [1]

（Reuters） 江苏省的工厂 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京报道 4月30日，中国国家统计局公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为49.0。比上月下降1.5个 百分点，时隔2个月跌破50这一好坏临界点。由于美国对中国加征关税，生产指数和订单指数低 迷。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 PMI以3200家制造业企业为调查对象。按照项目调查新订单、生产、员工人数等。指数超过50表 明景气度比上月扩大，指数低于50则表示景气度缩小。 作为支柱的新订单指数比上月下降2.6个百分点至49.2，时隔2个月跌破50。生产指数也下降2.8 个百分点至49.8，时隔2个月跌破50。 按企业规模来看，大企业的指数比上月下降2.0个百分点至49.2，低于50。中型企业和以民营企 业为主的小微企业也均低于50。关税的影响似乎已扩大到广泛的企业。 海外新订单指数下降4.3个百分点至44.7，低于50。创下2022年12月疫情期间经济活动停滞以来 的新低。 海外新订单指数下降4.3个百分点至44.7，低于50。创下2022年12月疫情期间以来的新低…… 与此同时发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are experiencing a decline in operating profits for the October to December 2024 period, marking a shift from profit growth to a decline, which has occurred five times in the past decade [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association reported that the total value of machine tool orders in February was 118.2 billion yen, a 4% increase year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of growth [1] - Overseas orders accounted for 70% of the total, amounting to 84.4 billion yen, with a 3% increase. Orders from Asia reached 41.1 billion yen, a 13% increase, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive months [1] - In Asia, China contributed 26.6 billion yen with a 17% increase, while India accounted for 5.3 billion yen, growing by 4% [1] Group 2: Regional Insights - North American orders slightly increased to 25.7 billion yen, driven by significant orders in the aerospace and shipbuilding sectors [2] - European orders fell by 10% to 15.4 billion yen, with Germany and Italy experiencing over a year of continuous decline [2] - Domestic orders in Japan grew by 4% to 33.7 billion yen, marking four consecutive months of growth, with notable increases in aerospace, shipbuilding, and transport machinery [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association conducted a survey regarding order expectations for April to June, revealing an index of -4.1, an improvement from -8.2 in the previous quarter [2] - The association's president expressed optimism for increased investments in the automotive and semiconductor sectors in the second half of the year [2]