Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.7%, remaining stable and within the 49%-50% range for eight consecutive months, indicating a slow recovery in the global economy [1][2] - The average global manufacturing PMI for January to October 2025 is 49.6%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, but still below the levels seen in 2019 [2] - Regional analysis shows that Asian and African manufacturing PMIs have slightly decreased but remain above 50%, while European manufacturing PMI has increased slightly but remains below 50%, and the Americas' PMI has decreased, indicating ongoing challenges in recovery [2][4] Global Manufacturing Overview - The global manufacturing sector continues to stabilize within a certain range, with a recovery pace slightly better than the previous year but still below pre-pandemic levels [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, which is an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from July but still below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [4] Regional Manufacturing Insights Americas - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas in October 2025 is 48.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued contraction in the region [5] - Major countries like the U.S. and Mexico show declines in their manufacturing PMIs, while Canada and Brazil have seen slight increases, but all remain below the 50% threshold [5] Europe - The European manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is 49.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in recovery efforts [8] - Key countries such as Germany, the UK, France, and Italy show small increases in their PMIs, but all remain below 50%, suggesting that overall recovery in Europe is still weak [8] Africa - The manufacturing PMI for Africa is reported at 50.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in growth [9] - Nigeria's manufacturing PMI has increased, while South Africa's has decreased below 50%, highlighting disparities in regional performance [9] Asia - The manufacturing PMI for Asia is 50.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued but slowing expansion [10] - Countries like India show an increase in their PMIs, while China, Japan, and South Korea have seen declines, reflecting mixed performance across the region [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is in a state of volume - shrinking adjustment, with the view for November remaining volatile, waiting for the spring rally. The bond market curve continues to flatten, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. For stock index options, the decline persists, and a covered call strategy is recommended for defense [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the equity market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, with some indexes like Beizheng 50 and Kechuang 200 falling over 2%. The market volume dropped below 2 trillion. Only the dividend index rose, and banks and consumer services performed well. The decline is related to the weak Asia - Pacific market. The view for November is volatile, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend index [1][7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to decline yesterday, with small - and medium - cap stocks having a larger pullback. The option market's turnover increased by 2.24% to 93.16 billion yuan, and liquidity was basically flat. It is recommended to use a covered call strategy for defense [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.03%, the 10 - year flat, and the 5 - year and 2 - year down 0.01%. The yield of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, and the curve flattened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [3][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI was 50.6 (previous value 51.2, forecast 50.9), and the US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (previous value 49.1, forecast 49.5). Other data such as the US October ADP employment change, China's October trade balance, and the US November Michigan consumer confidence index are yet to be released [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On November 4, Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Recently, a draft for public comments on the performance comparison benchmark element library of public funds was issued. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bonds in October was 20 billion yuan, with 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities and 400 billion yuan in repurchase agreements [11] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only mentions the headings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data summaries are provided [12][16][28]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share third - quarter reports showed good overall performance, providing bottom support for the market. However, the decline in domestic manufacturing prosperity in October may suppress the subsequent market trend. There is a situation of "good news exhausted" after the Sino - US summit, and the RMB exchange - rate pressure restricts the loose monetary policy. It is recommended to wait and see for the moment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All major and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed a downward trend. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2512) was 4589.0, down 41.2 from the previous period. The spreads between different varieties and different quarters also changed, with some widening and some narrowing. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1594.8, down 33.8 [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased. The net position of the top 20 in IF was - 25,348.00, down 1949.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 4618.70, down 34.7. The basis of the main contracts also changed, mostly showing a downward trend [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume decreased to 19,383.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 1945.09 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 83.61 billion yuan to 24,947.63 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume decreased, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 29.92%, down 35.03 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital - related indicators all showed a downward trend. The overall A - share market was at 3.50, down 3.00 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points. As of October 31, the total revenue of A - share listed companies in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The profit growth rate in the third quarter reached 11.30%, up 10.19 percentage points from the second quarter [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Focus On - Upcoming events include the Australian central bank's interest - rate decision on November 4 at 11:30, the US ADP employment data for October on November 5 at 21:15, China's trade data for October on November 7 at 9:30, and China's CPI and PPI for October on November 9 at 9:30 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of the non - ferrous metals sector is still oscillating upwards, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data fluctuations and the uncertainty of interest - rate cut expectations [11]. - For copper, short - term factors such as China's manufacturing PMI decline are negative, but in the medium - to - long - term, the improvement of the US manufacturing PMI, the supply pressure on the raw material side, and the seasonal increase in domestic demand are expected to drive up the copper price [3][12]. - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound, with the mine end being strong and the downstream acceptance slightly improving [4][12]. - The aluminum industry chain is generally in an oscillating state. Aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend, alumina oscillates and consolidates, and cast aluminum alloy is also oscillatingly strong [13]. - Tin is expected to be oscillatingly strong due to supply constraints and a slight improvement in demand [13][14]. - Lead is in an oscillating consolidation state, with supply gradually recovering and demand weakening [14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in an oscillating state. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel is in a weak supply - demand situation [8][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is still in an oscillating upward trend, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data and interest - rate cut uncertainties. After the October Fed decision, there are different views on interest - rate cuts among Fed officials. China's manufacturing PMI in October shows fluctuations [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Oscillating upward. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuating rebound. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21800 - 22000 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23000 [4][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is bullish, alumina is short - term bearish and long - term bullish, and cast aluminum alloy is bullish. Different support and pressure ranges are provided for each [13]. - **Tin**: Oscillatingly strong. Suggested to take a bullish approach, with a support range of 260000 - 270000 and a pressure range of 290000 - 300000 [13]. - **Lead**: Oscillating consolidation. Suggested to use an option double - selling strategy, with a support range of 17300 - 17500 and a pressure range of 17800 - 18000 [14]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. Suggested to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118000 - 120000 and a pressure range of 125000 - 128000 [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12500 - 12600 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 87300 with a 0.33% increase, and zinc closing at 22565 with a 0.94% increase [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - A chart of the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, but no specific content is described [16]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, for example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 87080 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change [19]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [20][23][25][32][40][45][51]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the LME zinc spot premium [55][57]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open - interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [71][73][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. The market trends of L and PP are affected by various factors such as futures prices, factory prices, downstream demand, and macro - economic indicators. Different trading strategies are proposed based on these factors, including holding or trying long/short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: In most cases, the L2601 contract showed small fluctuations, and the LLDPE market price had partial increases or decreases. Market trading sentiment was generally cautious, with downstream demand mainly based on orders. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, the L2601 contract closed at 6859 points, down 29 points or - 0.42%, and the LLDPE market price continued to be weak [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract also fluctuated slightly. The PP market price was mostly in a weak adjustment state, with some prices rising or falling. Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. For instance, on 25 - 11 - 04, the PP2601 contract closed at 6546 points, down 30 points or - 0.46%, and the PP market price was weakly sorted [1]. Important News - **Industry - related Policies**: The 7 - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [22]. - **Company - related Developments**: For example, Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project was successfully put into operation, and the 40,000 - ton/year ultra - high - molecular weight polyethylene transformation project was advanced simultaneously [40]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors for Polyolefins**: Some factors were positive for polyolefins, such as the increase in domestic automobile daily sales index in September, the increase in the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (business volume) in September, and the increase in domestic pipeline transportation industry fixed - asset investment completion in August [8][49][38]. - **Negative Factors for Polyolefins**: Some factors were negative, like the decrease in the Brent crude oil monthly average price in October, the decrease in the domestic real estate prosperity index in August, and the increase in the domestic automobile dealer inventory coefficient in September [32][49][38]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies included holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, it was recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and set the stop - loss at 6890 points; for the PP main 01 contract, it was advisable to try short positions and set the stop - loss at 6580 points [2]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, hold or reduce positions. For example, on 25 - 10 - 20, the L2601 - PP2601 (1 - hand to 1 - hand) spread was reported at + 314 points and was recommended to be held with the stop - loss set at + 311 points [41]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, sell and hold options with stop - loss settings [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", with an overall view of "oscillation" due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For major Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". In the long - run, there is still an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. In the long - run, there is an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. The price index and employment index sub - items of the latest manufacturing PMI data are weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, it is not difficult to achieve this year's growth target, and monetary policy usually cooperates with fiscal and industrial policies. So, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ISM report indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October due to declining production and weak demand [1][7]. Manufacturing Activity - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index is at 49.4, showing a second consecutive month of decline, although the rate of decline has slowed [4]. - The production index fell by 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating that output has contracted in two of the last three months [5]. Employment and Labor Market - The employment index is at 46, down from 45.3, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction in employment [5]. - Companies are focusing on layoffs rather than hiring to manage labor costs amid uncertainty in demand [6]. Price and Inflation Indicators - The prices paid index is at 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [5][8]. - This index has decreased nearly 12 points since the peak following the implementation of tariff policies in April [5]. Supply Chain and Inventory - The ISM supplier deliveries index has risen to a four-month high, suggesting extended delivery times [6]. - Manufacturers are experiencing the largest decline in inventory levels in a year, with low customer inventory levels indicating potential future order increases [6]. Industry Sentiment - The manufacturing sector is facing a generally pessimistic sentiment, with concerns over trade policy uncertainty impacting business confidence [7][9]. - Consumer goods manufacturers' confidence has dropped to a two-year low due to worries about domestic spending and declining sales in export markets [10]. Economic Data Reliance - Due to the government shutdown, economists and policymakers are increasingly relying on private reports like the ISM survey to assess economic and labor market conditions [11].

行情回顾： 当地时间11月3日，代表美国航空、联合航空、西南航空、达美航空、捷蓝航空和其他主要航空公司的美国航 空协会表示，自10月1日美政府"停摆"以来，由于空中交通管制人员配备问题，已有超过320万名美国航空旅客 受到航班延误或取消的影响。 国际黄金周一（11月3日）维持震荡走势，开盘价3983.40美元/盎司，最高价4030.62美元/盎司最低价3962.44美 元/盎司，收盘价4008.54美元/盎司。 消息面： 周一公布的美国10月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得52.5，高于市场预期52.2；美国10月ISM制造业PMI录得 48.7，低于市场预期49.5，前值位49.1。 机构评美国ISM制造业PMI报告：受产出下滑和需求疲软拖累，10月份美国制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩。数 据显示，美国ISM制造业指数下降0.4点至48.7，生产指数下滑2.8点至48.2，为过去三个月中第二次出现产出收 缩，这也拖累了就业，ISM就业指标连续第九个月收缩。与此同时，通胀压力持续缓解。原材料采购价格指数 下跌3.9点至58，为年初以来最低水平。10月份有12个制造业行业出现收缩，其中纺织、服装和家具行业表现 最弱。包 ...

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