Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report indicates a target growth of around 5% for 2026 [4][16] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][16] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Steel Market Overview - On February 5, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 986,000 tons, a decrease of 4.6% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders dropped by 22.7% [5][17] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 39.39%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.2858 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6 tons [6][18] - Total supply of five major steel products is 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory increased by 4.6% to 13.3775 million tons [6][18] Group 4: Rebar and Hot Rolled Steel - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons. Demand has decreased significantly due to seasonal factors [7][19] - Hot rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons. The market is expected to continue experiencing narrow fluctuations as demand declines [8][20] Group 5: Alloy Market - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with overall supply remaining low and production changes being minimal. Demand from steel mills has slightly increased, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Outlook**: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - **News**: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - **News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - **Outlook**: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - **News**: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report targets around 5% growth for 2026 [4][15] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][15] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][15] Group 3: Steel Industry Performance - On February 4, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 12.6% [5][16] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [5][16] - Total steel supply for the week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][16] Group 4: Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel Market - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, with total inventory rising by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production also increased slightly to 3.0921 million tons, with total inventory decreasing by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] Group 5: Price Strategies - Short-term price ranges for rebar and hot-rolled steel are set at 3,080-3,200 CNY/ton and 3,250-3,350 CNY/ton, respectively [8][19] Group 6: Alloy Market Overview - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with supply remaining low and production changes minimal. Demand from steel mills is stable, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production concerns [9][20]

Market Overview - As of February 3, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 907,000 tons, an increase of 11% month-on-month [5] - The steel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with 247 steel mills operating at a blast furnace utilization rate of 79%, up 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5] Steel Production and Inventory - Last week, the total supply of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week [5] - Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][6] - Total steel inventory reached 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week, with rebar inventory rising by 234,300 tons, a 5.2% increase [5][6] Rebar Market Insights - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, while total inventory rose to 4.7553 million tons [6][17] - Demand for rebar has decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in prices as winter storage is nearly complete [6][17] Hot-Rolled Steel Insights - Hot-rolled steel production increased to 3.0921 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 3.8 million tons [7][18] - Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, maintaining low inventory and quick turnover strategies [7][18] Iron Alloy Market Overview - The overall supply of iron alloys remains low, with production changes being minimal [9][20] - Cost pressures are stabilizing, with the first round of coke price increases being implemented [9][20] - Demand from steel mills is stable, but production recovery is constrained by profit margins and safety regulations [9][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, pulling the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for the whole year to 0.6%, but the profit margin remains at a historical low. [1] - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The input price was stronger than the finished product price, and the trend of squeezing enterprise profits still exists. Recently, the rotation of commodity prices is mainly driven by the cost side rather than overheated demand, which has limited suppression on the bond market. [1] - The economic data is weak. The long Spring Festival holiday in February may hinder credit issuance. Coupled with the recent stock market fluctuations and commodity price adjustments, short - term favorable factors are concentrated. Considering that it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the PPI is in the cycle of turning positive, if the interest rate continues to decline, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing the long - end interest rate in the short term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Event**: The British Prime Minister visited China again after an 8 - year interval. During the visit, China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including promoting the development of a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership, holding a new round of strategic dialogue, economic and financial dialogue, and other mechanism - based dialogues, and establishing a China - UK financial working group. China is also considering implementing a unilateral visa - free policy for British citizens and reducing the import tariff rate of whisky from 10% to 5%. [2][9] - **Industrial Policy**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to promote the development of new fields such as space tourism during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including accelerating the iteration of sub - orbital and orbital space tourism aircraft products, and conducting related flight verifications. It will also carry out the demonstration of the "Tianguangkaiwu" major project. [2][9] - **Real Estate Policy**: Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located. [2][10] - **Consumption Policy**: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects: stimulating the development vitality of key fields, cultivating the development momentum of potential fields, and strengthening support and guarantee. [2][10] - **Data Security Policy**: The Cyberspace Administration of China solicited opinions on the classification and grading rules for financial information service data. The "Guidelines for the Classification and Grading of Financial Information Service Data (Draft for Comment)" classifies financial information service data into three primary categories: business data, user data, and enterprise data, with further subdivisions. [2][10] - **Financial Data**: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 16.1% year - on - year, with solar power generation and wind power generation having significant growth. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year in 2025, reversing the three - year decline trend. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a reduction of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. [2][11][13] Overseas Key Data and Events - **Federal Reserve Decision**: The Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged with a 10 - to - 2 vote. Two members opposed and advocated a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. [2][14] - **US Government Issue**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the Senate, and the US federal government faces the risk of partial "shutdown" again. [2][14] - **Exchange Rate Observation**: The US Treasury Department included 10 economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea in the exchange - rate observation list, claiming that the RMB was significantly undervalued. [2][14] - **Canada's Action**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that a formal review of the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would be launched in a few weeks. [2][14] - **South Korea's Semiconductor**: South Korea's semiconductor exports were strong in January, with the total export amount reaching $20.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of more than 102%. [2][15] - **Precious Metal Market**: US President Trump's nomination of Wash as the Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a sharp sell - off in the precious metal market. Spot gold had an intraday decline of nearly 13%, and spot silver plunged by more than 35%. [2][15] Market Performance - **Stock and Bond Market**: This week, the stock market fluctuated. The yields of most 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds declined, with the yield of the 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond falling to 1.8112%. The yield of the 30 - year ChinaBond treasury bond rose slightly to 2.289%, and the term spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds widened again. [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13585 | 165 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -100 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -11371 | -3498 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 67925 | -15520 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 44621 | 803 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 14650 | -200 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9700 | -50 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 430 | 445 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | -0.07 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 23861.23 | 11020.74 进口数量:镍铁 ...

产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长加快，市场逢回调采买为主，现货升水下跌 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2026-02-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 134830 | 5180 03-04月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -300 | -550 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17045 | -510 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 101500 | -9445 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -46435 | -5 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 285528 | -756 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 55396 | 4602 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 10692 | -234 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 48180 | ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 3, 2026 [2] - **Report Type**: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report - **Researcher**: Chen Sijia [3] - **Futures Practicing Certificate Number**: F03118799 - **Futures Investment Consulting Practicing Certificate Number**: Z0022803 Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, with attention focused on the 2.43 - 2.55 range [3]. - Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has intensified, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has rebounded, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other sectors have some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream procurement has become less active, and domestic social inventories are stable with a slight increase, while LME zinc inventories are stable and the spot premium remains low [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions are trading cautiously. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,960 yuan/ton, with a change of 445 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,318.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 51.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 203,753 lots, a decrease of 11,573 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,412 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai zinc are 0 tons, with no change. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 65,154 tons, a decrease of 7,997 tons, and the LME inventory is 109,100 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 25,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 990 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 5.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.06 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value from the ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons. 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 1.113 million tons, an increase of 41,000 tons. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 41.66%, a decrease of 1.7%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 41.65%, a decrease of 1.7% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 39.69%, an increase of 5.89%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.58%, an increase of 3.75% [3]. 7. Industry News - In January, China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high. Positive signals include growth in new orders (including export orders) and a three - month first rebound in employment. However, business confidence dropped to a nine - month low, input costs had the strongest increase in four months, and product sales prices rose for the first time in 14 months [3]. - In January, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. It was mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one - year high but remained in the contraction range, and the price - paid index reached a four - month high [3]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. His core proposition is to push the Federal Reserve to significantly shrink its huge $6.6 trillion balance sheet and seek a new agreement with the Treasury to clarify the central bank's independent boundaries and prevent fiscal monetization [3].

CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格23270-23310元/吨，跌410元，贴水240-贴水200，持平； 广东现货23275-23325元/吨，跌400元，贴水225-贴水175，涨20元；上海地区23260-23300元/吨，跌410 元，贴水250-贴水210，持平。 宏观层面，尽管特朗普信任提名主席沃什主张的货币政策框架鸽派立场不及预期，但业内专家指出，美 联储现有的利率管理机制高度依赖充裕的流动性环境，在不影响市场稳定的前提下收缩流动性面临重重 挑战。削减债券持仓本质上是紧缩行为，可能与降低利率的诉求相悖。金银市场巨震使全球市场风险偏 好急剧降温，而沃什的大规模缩表计划也与美联储当前依赖充裕流动性的利率管理机制存在冲突。此 外，特朗普计划启动战略关键矿产储备项目，供美国汽车企业、科技公司和制造商等采购并存储关键矿 产资源，以帮助企业对冲原材料价格波动风险，减少自行囤积库存的需求。国内方面，中国1月 RatingDog制造业PMI升至三个月高位50.3，销售价格14个月来首次回升，提振了市场多头信心，限制了 铝价跌幅。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝探底回升，LME三个月北京时间14：51报于30 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 ——利率半月报（2026.1.19-2026.2.1） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以下 报告核心观点：1 月制造业 PMI 较上月回落，重回荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 同步 回落，均时隔一个月再度进入收缩区间，或表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月 有所放缓。1 月制造业 PMI 环比-0.8pct 至 49.3%，1 月非制造业商务活动指数为 49.4%，环比-0.8pct，1 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，较上月-0.9pct，均略低于 荣枯线。预计 26 年消费端持续有政策支持但力度或较 25 年有所回落，叠加 25 年社 零表现亮眼，高基数下 26 年消费端对经济的支撑效果或有所减弱。投资端基建和地 产对经济的拖累或将持续。受 25 年上半年抢出口影响，26 年外贸增长韧性有待观 察。或需持续关注稳增长政策落地效果及新质生产力等方向对经济的支撑作用。 本周（1/19-2/1）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 ...