澳大利亚上季度年度薪资增速仍处高位，凸显劳动力市场持续紧张，并在本月加息后，进一步加剧澳大 利亚储备银行（澳联储）面临的通胀挑战。 澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，截至去年 12 月的三个月里，薪资价格指数（WPI）同比上涨 3.4%，与经济学家预期一致；环比上涨 0.8%。数据还显示，公共部门薪资同比增速已连续第四个季度 快于私营部门。 澳大利亚统计局价格统计主管米歇尔・马夸特表示："2025 年公共部门薪资大幅增长，原因是各州达成 新的公共部门协议，全年多次加薪。" 在此数据发布前，澳联储已成为今年全球首个加息的央行，理由是通胀持续、需求受供给约束、金融环 境仍偏宽松。在 2 月 2—3 日的会议纪要中，央行指出，综合薪资增长与生产率的单位劳动力成本仍居 高不下，表明劳动力市场 "依然偏紧"。澳联储正密切关注企业的定价行为。目前澳大利亚失业率仍处 于4.1%的低位，通胀率高于2%–3%的目标区间，且消费者支出表现强于预期。 在此数据发布前，澳联储已成为今年全球首个加息的央行，理由是通胀持续、需求受供给约束、金融环 境仍偏宽松。在 2 月 2—3 日的会议纪要中，央行指出，综合薪资增长与生产率的单位劳动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with January employment growth reaching a new high since December 2024, despite a surprising drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. However, significant downward revisions to previous employment data reveal a more substantial weakness in the labor market than previously understood [1][4]. Employment Growth and Revisions - In January, non-farm employment increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025 [1][7]. - The annual benchmark revision drastically lowered the total employment growth for 2025 from an initial report of 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a substantial correction in the understanding of last year's labor market performance [3][7]. - Monthly data revisions showed that the average monthly job growth last year was only 15,000, far below the initial estimate of 49,000 [7]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector was the primary driver of employment growth in January, continuing to be a key engine for job expansion throughout 2025. Other sectors such as construction and professional services also saw job increases, while manufacturing recorded its first monthly growth of the year [8]. - Temporary help services continued to decline, with a reduction of 42,000 jobs in January, marking the fifth month of decline in the past six months [8]. Labor Market Stability - The January employment report indicates a gradual stabilization of the labor market after a year of cooling and low hiring activity. Despite expectations of overall weak job growth in 2026, clearer economic policy expectations and easing labor cost pressures may lead some employers to reconsider hiring plans [10]. - Job quality improved, with full-time positions increasing by 582,000 and part-time positions by 31,000. The unemployment rates for major demographic groups showed slight declines, with youth unemployment at 13.6% and adult male and female rates at 3.8% and 4.0%, respectively [11]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the data release, U.S. stock futures and Treasury yields rose, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in June, now expecting the first cut to be delayed until July. The strong January data, despite the annual revisions, presents a complex picture for the Federal Reserve in assessing future rate cuts [6][12]. - The labor market's underlying fragility revealed by the revisions may provide the Federal Reserve with more room for policy adjustments [6].

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文称，美国经济的各项关键指标正指向同一个积极方向，通胀正在下 降，劳动力市场保持坚挺，经济增长稳固。这并非最终定论，但已是美国经济有史以来最接近实现软着 陆（即在避免经济衰退的同时遏制通胀）的一次。就在四年前，许多经济学家还认为这不可能。如今， 美国经济在不陷入衰退的情况下让通胀回落至美联储2%目标的情景，再次变得可信。不过即使不需要 氧气面罩，现在解开安全带还为时过早。美联储偏爱的通胀指标核心PCE年率目前接近3%，多位预测 人士预计，随着与关税相关的价格上涨传导到更多地方，今年通胀难有大的进展。与此同时，劳动力市 场可能不如上周报告所显示的那么稳固。Payden&Rygel首席经济学家杰弗里·克利夫兰表示，客观地 说，劳动力市场一直疲软，今年失业率更可能上升而非下降。 ...

美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核心零售 销售环比下降0.1%，预期为增长0.3%。主要依赖工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 其他信息：美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不 刺激也不抑制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。美联 储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时间 内"保持不变。 【机构观点】 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月11日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 20944 | 1.88% | 504079 | 211818 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，2月11日上海白银现货价格报价22146元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（20944元/千克）升水 1202元/千克。 美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the silver futures market is experiencing a price increase, with the Shanghai silver futures closing at 20,626 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.88% [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on February 12 was reported at 22,025 yuan per kilogram, which is a premium of 1,399 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 showed an unexpected zero growth, significantly below the expected increase of 0.4%, indicating weak consumer performance among low-income groups [3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, but precious metals showed limited volatility, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve [4] - The Federal Reserve's current policy stance is described as being close to neutral, with no further rate cuts anticipated if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [3][4]

美国1月非农就业数据全线超预期，但机构普遍认为，在年度基准修正揭示去年就业虚高、行业增长高度集中的背景下，劳动力市场修复 基础仍不牢固。 银河证券指出，1月就业增长仍高度集中于医疗等少数行业，结构性特征未见改善，景气持续性有待观察。华泰证券维持美联储6月前暂 停降息的判断，称就业市场下行风险虽有所缓解，但数据改善的可持续性仍需进一步验证。 数据发布后，市场对2026年全年降息的定价收窄8个基点至52个基点，2年期与10年期美债收益率分别上行7个基点和5个基点。分析师认 为，1月数据为联储"按兵不动"提供新的佐证，但并未实质性改变政策路径。 就业增长集中于少数行业 华泰证券表示，1月就业增量仍集中于医疗、零售、建筑等少数行业，景气持续性有待观察。国联民生证券进一步指出，就业复苏的行业 广度依然不足，1月新增就业几乎全部来自医疗保健及社会援助领域，这一结构特征或制约整体生产力修复空间。 具体来看，1月私人部门新增非农就业录得17.2万人，创2025年以来单月新高，但行业分布高度不均。服务部门贡献13.6万人，其中医疗 保健行业单月新增12.4万人，较去年四季度月均5.2万人的水平大幅跳升；零售业增幅有限，休闲酒店 ...

不过新修正的2025年12月非农数据也显示，12月的美国新增就业被小幅下修至4.8万人。 作者｜曾佳 发自美国华盛顿 美东时间2月11日，美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局（BLS）推迟发布的就业数据显示，1月份美国非农就业人数大幅增加 了13万人，远高于市场预期的5.5万。当月美国失业率也意外回落至4.3%，优于维持在4.4%的预期。 这份强劲的美国劳动力市场报告于美股盘前发布后，美股期货纷纷走高，标普500指数期货上涨0.4%，纳斯达克100指 数期货上涨0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数期货上扬204点，涨幅0.4%。 美国国债收益率全线上升，市场对美联储今年的降息预期降温。10年期美债收益率上行至4.202%，攀升5.7个基点。2年 期美债收益率迅速攀升8.3个基点至3.537%。30年期国债收益率上升3.7个基点至4.825%。 图片来自视觉中国 美国国债收益率全线上升，市场对美联储今年的降息预期减弱 美国劳动力市场在2026年伊始的就业增长强于预期，在一定程度上缓解了过去一段时间外界对美国劳动力市场持续疲软 的担忧。这份最新就业报告印证，美国劳动力市场依然处于低增长和低裁员的模式中。 …… ...

Economic Data and Labor Market - The January non-farm payrolls figure showed a headline number of 130,000, which is the strongest growth in over a year and more than double the Dow Jones prediction of 55,000 [2] - Job creation for the previous year was revised down to just over 15,000 per month, with the last six months resulting in a net loss of 1,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, contrary to expectations of holding at 4.4%, which may shift focus back to inflation concerns [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Expectations for a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting have decreased, with the CME's Fed Watch tool indicating a 1 in 20 chance of a rate reduction, down from a 1 in 5 chance [3] - Forecasts suggest no rate cuts until mid-year, with potential cuts of 50 basis points as inflation decreases [4] - There is a belief that the data will support the Fed chair in persuading the committee to implement additional cuts later in the year [6][7] Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office has indicated that the deficit is projected to worsen through 2036, raising concerns about fiscal policy [10] - The focus on fiscal issues is significant as central banks have reduced their bond holdings, leading to scrutiny of fiscal management [11] - The Fed's balance sheet dynamics are discussed, with implications for how it may manage its portfolio in relation to economic growth [12][13]

格隆汇2月12日｜Clearbridge Investments的Jeff Schulze在报告中指出，美国一月劳动力市场数据对风险 资产构成利好，因为数据显示就业基础稳固，可进一步推动消费增长。他表示，投资者已将美联储降息 的预期从六月推迟到七月，因为数据表明，当前劳动力市场无需额外货币宽松措施即可维持增长。尽管 利率上行带来压力，但改善的经济增长前景已完全抵消这一影响。Schulze同时提醒，虽然报告整体偏 正面，但需注意一月数据往往受季节性因素影响较大，可能夸大当月就业报告的表现。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录 得4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，通胀仍 高于目标水平，应维持"略具限制性"利率立场。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。美国总统特 朗普发文称赞1月非农强劲表现，再度呼吁大幅降息，称美国应享有全球最低利率。 美国1月非农数据远超预期，最直接且确定的影响是：交易员将美联储首次降息的押注从6月推迟至7 月，并引发美债收益率跳升、美元走强、黄金短线跳水。这组数据打破了市场对"劳动力市场即将崩 溃"的论调，但并未逆转全年的降息预期，只是将时间窗口整体后移。 具体到各个金融市场的传导路径和深层矛盾，可以从以下几个维度拆解： 一、 美联储政策路径：降息"延迟"而非"消失" 值得注意的是政策层内部的罕见分歧：虽然市场正在撤回降息押注，但白宫（特朗普及其经济顾问哈塞 特）反而在数据发布后加大了"喊话降息"的力度，称"美联储仍有充足降息空间"、"美国应享有全球最 预期重置：数据发布前，市场仍在博弈6月降息；发布后，CME联邦基金期货显示6月按兵不动的 概率升至近4 ...