1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for tin investment, with an expected price range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for shock adjustment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,230 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 24,776 lots, up 57 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures is 128 lots, down 65 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 1,755 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 365 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warrants are 7,332 tons, down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,190 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan [3] - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [3] - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Modi plans to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit [3] - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies like Apple and TSMC that build or promise to build factories in the US [3] - The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on existing tariffs [3] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might signal a turning point in the US economy [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to factors like enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates [3] - After the PV industry's rush to install ended, some producers' operating rates declined; the electronics industry is in a slow season, and the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors adds to the pressure. Downstream enterprises are in a traditional consumption slow season with few orders [3] - The current high prices suppress downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment sentiment. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has slightly increased [3] - Technically, with low open interest, both bulls and bears are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, led by President Trump, plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on all imported semiconductors, while hinting at potential tax relief for companies that commit to building factories in the U.S. [2][4] Group 1: Tariff Details - President Trump announced that a 100% tariff will be applied to semiconductors imported into the U.S. [2] - Companies that plan to produce semiconductors domestically will not be subject to these tariffs, even if production has not yet started [4]. - The specific range of products affected by the semiconductor tariffs has not been disclosed [5]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Major semiconductor companies are actively investing in the U.S., with TSMC announcing an additional investment of $100 billion, raising its total investment in the U.S. to $165 billion [6]. - Samsung Electronics has invested approximately $37 billion in Texas, driven by subsidies from the U.S. government [6]. - There are concerns from industry players, such as Mitsubishi Electric and Tesla, regarding the potential broad scope of the tariff investigation, which may include related products like smartphones and displays [5][6]. Group 3: Legislative Context - The semiconductor investment initiatives are influenced by the CHIPS and Science Act, which was passed during the Biden administration, despite Trump's criticism of it [6]. - It remains unclear whether the proposed tax relief for domestic production will extend to companies that announced investments during the Biden administration [6].

(责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇8月6日｜天风国际证券分析师郭明錤表示，特朗普说台积电要投资美国3000亿美元。台积电官方 说的投资金额是1650亿美元，特朗普先前说的金额是2000亿美元。特朗普进一步将投资金额提高到3000 亿美元，像是为即将到来的半导体关税暖身，符合特朗普自己说过的"先提出一个极高的数字，再往下 谈"的做法。近期市场传言美方要求台积电入股英特尔49%或追加投资4000亿美元，即台积电总共要投 资美国5650亿美元，远高于特朗普说的3000亿美元，代表市场传言非事实。 ...

天风国际证券分析师郭明錤表示，特朗普说台积电要投资美国3000亿美元。台积电官方说的投资金额是 1650亿美元，特朗普先前说的金额是2000亿美元。特朗普进一步将投资金额提高到3000亿美元，像是为 即将到来的半导体关税暖身，符合特朗普自己说过的"先提出一个极高的数字，再往下谈"的做法。 本文源自：金融界 近期市场传言美方要求台积电入股英特尔49%或追加投资4000亿美元，即台积电总共要投资美国5650亿 美元，远高于特朗普说的3000亿美元，代表市场传言非事实。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's stock price dropped significantly due to warnings about losing Apple as a customer for its modem business and lower-than-expected smartphone chip revenue in Q3 [1][4][3] Financial Performance - For Q3 ending June 29, Qualcomm reported revenue of $10.37 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, but below the analyst expectation of $10.62 billion [3] - Adjusted net profit was $2.67 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.77, exceeding the expected $2.72 [3] - The QCT segment (mainly chip business) generated $8.993 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-over-year [3] - Smartphone chip revenue was $6.328 billion, a 7% increase but below the expected $6.48 billion [3] - Automotive chip revenue reached $984 million, up 21%, while IoT revenue was $1.681 billion, up 24% [3] Future Outlook - Qualcomm expects Q4 revenue to be between $10.3 billion and $11.1 billion, with analyst expectations averaging $10.6 billion [3] - QCT segment revenue is projected to be between $9 billion and $9.6 billion, with expected earnings per share between $2.75 and $2.95 [3] Client Dependency and Market Strategy - Qualcomm warned that it may lose Apple as a customer for modem chips as Apple shifts to in-house solutions, which could impact over $5 billion in annual revenue [4][5] - The CEO stated that Qualcomm is no longer reliant on Apple for future growth and is focusing on expanding into non-mobile markets like automotive and IoT [5] - Revenue from non-Apple clients in the chip segment grew over 15% in Q3 [5] Regulatory and Trade Risks - Qualcomm faces potential risks from tariffs on semiconductor imports, as indicated by former President Trump's threats to impose tariffs that could disrupt supply chains and harm revenue [7][6] - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to announce findings from a national security investigation into semiconductor imports, which could lead to tariffs as high as 25% to 100% [7][8] - Analysts warn that the optimistic market expectations regarding tariffs may be overly idealistic, with actual rates potentially being more incremental [7]

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's stock experienced a significant drop due to warnings about losing Apple as a customer for its modem business and disappointing smartphone chip revenue in its latest earnings report [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 ending June 29, Qualcomm reported revenue of $10.37 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, but below the analyst expectation of $10.62 billion [5]. - Adjusted net profit was $2.67 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.77, exceeding the forecast of $2.72 [5]. - The QCT segment (mainly chip business) generated $8.993 billion in revenue, an 11% increase, with smartphone chip revenue at $6.328 billion, which was below the expected $6.48 billion [5]. Customer Dependency and Future Outlook - Qualcomm warned that it may lose Apple as a customer for its modem chips in the coming years as Apple shifts to in-house developed chips [6][7]. - Qualcomm previously earned over $5 billion annually from its partnership with Apple, but the future of this relationship is uncertain [7]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by focusing on non-mobile markets such as automotive and IoT, with a reported 15% growth in revenue from non-Apple customers [8]. Market and Regulatory Challenges - Qualcomm faces potential tariffs on semiconductor imports, which could disrupt supply chains and negatively impact smartphone revenue [3][9]. - There are concerns regarding the implementation of tariffs that could range from 25% to 100%, which may affect the semiconductor industry significantly [10][12]. - The geopolitical landscape and trade restrictions are creating challenges for the semiconductor sector, as highlighted by ASML's warnings about growth prospects [13][14].

特朗普此前曾公开表态称，美国对于半导体关税的税率可能高达25%～100%。并且，新规则不排除以晶圆制 造地（wafer out）作为源产地来加征关税。这也将对台积电、英特尔、三星、美光等晶圆制造厂商，以及英 伟达、苹果、高通、联发科等依赖于圆代工产能的芯片设计厂商带来严重负面影响。 因此，在今年5月下旬，台积电、英特尔、美光和高通等半导体巨头以及美国半导体行业协会（SIA）都向美 国商务部工业和安全局（BIS）提交了意见评论，纷纷敦促美国总统特朗普谨慎对待半导体关税，并警告一旦 施行广泛的关税，可能对美国半导体产业造成严重意外损害。 7月28日消息，美国总统特朗普近日在苏格兰与欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）敲定关税协 定。与此同时，美国商务部长 霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 在场边接受媒体采访时表示，针对芯片产业 发起的"232调查"结果将会在两周内公布。 今年4月14日，美国商务部下属部门工业与安全局（BIS）通过联邦公报官网宣布，根据《1962年贸易扩展 法》第232条款赋予的权力，对进口半导体及半导体制造设备和其衍生产品、进口药品及药用成分发起国 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration will announce the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks, raising concerns about potential new tariffs on chips [1] - The investigation, initiated on April 13, focuses on the semiconductor industry and the entire electronic supply chain, potentially laying the groundwork for new tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1] - Barclays has indicated that the timeline for imposing semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, with implementation likely after mid-August and no later than September [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that many companies will invest in semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while the European Commission President has found a "better way" to circumvent the upcoming chip tariffs [2] - The U.S. has reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, which will increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, while maintaining the current steel and aluminum tariffs [2] - The Trump administration is investigating the national security threat posed by reliance on foreign pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports, alongside separate investigations into copper and lumber imports [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of U.S. semiconductor tariffs is expected to occur between mid-August and September, with potential impacts exceeding market expectations [1][2][3]. Tariff Implementation Timeline - Barclays reports that the timeline for the semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, likely to be implemented after mid-August and no later than September [2][6]. - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to submit a report on the national security trade investigation within 270 days, followed by a 90-day decision period for the President [5][6]. Tax Rate Expectations - The market's optimistic expectation of a uniform 25% tariff may be overly idealistic, with Barclays suggesting a potential incremental tax model instead [3][7]. - An incremental tariff model could start with a lower rate and gradually increase, allowing the industry time to adjust [7]. - There may also be differentiated tax rates for different countries, similar to the steel industry [8]. Impact on the Semiconductor Industry - The 232 tariff is viewed as a significant risk for the semiconductor industry, with potential impacts that could exceed market expectations [9]. - Semiconductor equipment may face phased taxation, contrary to previous expectations of exemptions [9]. - AI chips, despite assumptions of exemption, are also at risk of being taxed [10]. - The implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact semiconductor demand in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [11]. Industry Responses - Major semiconductor companies are advocating for exemptions on equipment and materials, emphasizing the need for policies that support U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [13][14]. - Texas Instruments and TSMC have expressed concerns that tariffs could increase costs and delay U.S. wafer fabrication projects [14].

Group 1: TSMC's Investment and Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in capacity expansion in the U.S., which may increase its chances of tariff exemptions [1] - TSMC's management indicated that potential semiconductor tariffs could suppress electronic product demand and reduce company revenue [1] - Due to inflation and potential tariff costs, TSMC expects profit margins from overseas factories to erode by 3-4 percentage points in the later years of the next five years [1] Group 2: Wafer Pricing and Currency Impact - TSMC is expected to increase wafer prices by 3%-5% globally due to strong demand for advanced processes and structural currency trends [2] - U.S. customers are reportedly locking in higher quotes for 4nm capacity at TSMC's U.S. factories, with plans to raise wafer prices by at least 10% [2] Group 3: 2nm Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to start mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of 2025, with significant demand anticipated [5] - The projected capacity for 2nm will be 10k wafers per month (kwpm) in 2024, increasing to 40-50 kwpm in 2025, and reaching 90 kwpm by the end of 2026 [5] - Major clients for 2nm technology will include Apple, AMD, and Intel, with Apple expected to adopt the technology in Q4 2025 [5][6] Group 4: AI and Cryptocurrency Demand - By the end of 2026, AI ASICs will begin utilizing 2nm capacity, with increased usage expected in 2027 [6] - The contribution of cloud AI semiconductor business to TSMC's revenue is projected to rise from 13% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, and further to 34% by 2027 [12] Group 5: B30 GPU and Market Demand - TSMC's Blackwell chip production is expected to align with the demand from NVL72 server rack shipments, with a projected shipment of 30,000 racks in 2025 [10] - The design of the Chinese version of the B30 GPU is anticipated to be similar to the RTX PRO 6000, with demand continuing to grow [12] - If the B30 can be sold in China, it could account for 20% of TSMC's revenue growth in 2026 [12]