此外，第三财季（截至6月29日），高通的智能手机芯片业务收入低于市场预期。当季，公司与手机相 关的销售额为63.3亿美元，此前分析师预估为64.8亿美元。 周四美股盘前，手机芯片制造商高通的股价一度大跌超7%。稍早前，高通在财报中向投资者发出警告 称，公司的调制解调器业务可能会失去苹果这个客户。 2025年2月份，苹果公司推出了新一代"低廉"iPhone新品—iPhone 16e，除了带来了更低的价格以及苹果 AI门槛外，还搭载了苹果自研的蜂窝网络调制解调器芯片Apple C1。据报道，这是苹果在为与高通分手 做准备。分析师郭明錤爆料称，今年9月份登场的iPhone 17 Air也将配备C1。有媒体指出，在合同到期 后，高通大概率会完全退出苹果的供应链。 近期，高通公司CEO安蒙回应外界担忧称，"公司已不再将苹果的业务作为未来发展的关键依赖，如果 未来没有新的合同，那也没有关系。" 当地时间7月30日，高通首席财务官Akash Palkhiwala表示，公司正通过拓展非手机市场（如汽车和 IoT），以及深化与其他安卓手机客户的合作，以对冲苹果订单可能减少的风险。据高通介绍，公司第 三财季非苹果客户的芯片部门收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's stock experienced a significant drop due to warnings about losing Apple as a customer for its modem business and disappointing smartphone chip revenue in its latest earnings report [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 ending June 29, Qualcomm reported revenue of $10.37 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, but below the analyst expectation of $10.62 billion [5]. - Adjusted net profit was $2.67 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.77, exceeding the forecast of $2.72 [5]. - The QCT segment (mainly chip business) generated $8.993 billion in revenue, an 11% increase, with smartphone chip revenue at $6.328 billion, which was below the expected $6.48 billion [5]. Customer Dependency and Future Outlook - Qualcomm warned that it may lose Apple as a customer for its modem chips in the coming years as Apple shifts to in-house developed chips [6][7]. - Qualcomm previously earned over $5 billion annually from its partnership with Apple, but the future of this relationship is uncertain [7]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by focusing on non-mobile markets such as automotive and IoT, with a reported 15% growth in revenue from non-Apple customers [8]. Market and Regulatory Challenges - Qualcomm faces potential tariffs on semiconductor imports, which could disrupt supply chains and negatively impact smartphone revenue [3][9]. - There are concerns regarding the implementation of tariffs that could range from 25% to 100%, which may affect the semiconductor industry significantly [10][12]. - The geopolitical landscape and trade restrictions are creating challenges for the semiconductor sector, as highlighted by ASML's warnings about growth prospects [13][14].

特朗普此前曾公开表态称，美国对于半导体关税的税率可能高达25%～100%。并且，新规则不排除以晶圆制 造地（wafer out）作为源产地来加征关税。这也将对台积电、英特尔、三星、美光等晶圆制造厂商，以及英 伟达、苹果、高通、联发科等依赖于圆代工产能的芯片设计厂商带来严重负面影响。 因此，在今年5月下旬，台积电、英特尔、美光和高通等半导体巨头以及美国半导体行业协会（SIA）都向美 国商务部工业和安全局（BIS）提交了意见评论，纷纷敦促美国总统特朗普谨慎对待半导体关税，并警告一旦 施行广泛的关税，可能对美国半导体产业造成严重意外损害。 7月28日消息，美国总统特朗普近日在苏格兰与欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）敲定关税协 定。与此同时，美国商务部长 霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 在场边接受媒体采访时表示，针对芯片产业 发起的"232调查"结果将会在两周内公布。 今年4月14日，美国商务部下属部门工业与安全局（BIS）通过联邦公报官网宣布，根据《1962年贸易扩展 法》第232条款赋予的权力，对进口半导体及半导体制造设备和其衍生产品、进口药品及药用成分发起国 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration will announce the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks, raising concerns about potential new tariffs on chips [1] - The investigation, initiated on April 13, focuses on the semiconductor industry and the entire electronic supply chain, potentially laying the groundwork for new tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1] - Barclays has indicated that the timeline for imposing semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, with implementation likely after mid-August and no later than September [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that many companies will invest in semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while the European Commission President has found a "better way" to circumvent the upcoming chip tariffs [2] - The U.S. has reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, which will increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, while maintaining the current steel and aluminum tariffs [2] - The Trump administration is investigating the national security threat posed by reliance on foreign pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports, alongside separate investigations into copper and lumber imports [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of U.S. semiconductor tariffs is expected to occur between mid-August and September, with potential impacts exceeding market expectations [1][2][3]. Tariff Implementation Timeline - Barclays reports that the timeline for the semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, likely to be implemented after mid-August and no later than September [2][6]. - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to submit a report on the national security trade investigation within 270 days, followed by a 90-day decision period for the President [5][6]. Tax Rate Expectations - The market's optimistic expectation of a uniform 25% tariff may be overly idealistic, with Barclays suggesting a potential incremental tax model instead [3][7]. - An incremental tariff model could start with a lower rate and gradually increase, allowing the industry time to adjust [7]. - There may also be differentiated tax rates for different countries, similar to the steel industry [8]. Impact on the Semiconductor Industry - The 232 tariff is viewed as a significant risk for the semiconductor industry, with potential impacts that could exceed market expectations [9]. - Semiconductor equipment may face phased taxation, contrary to previous expectations of exemptions [9]. - AI chips, despite assumptions of exemption, are also at risk of being taxed [10]. - The implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact semiconductor demand in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [11]. Industry Responses - Major semiconductor companies are advocating for exemptions on equipment and materials, emphasizing the need for policies that support U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [13][14]. - Texas Instruments and TSMC have expressed concerns that tariffs could increase costs and delay U.S. wafer fabrication projects [14].

Group 1: TSMC's Investment and Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in capacity expansion in the U.S., which may increase its chances of tariff exemptions [1] - TSMC's management indicated that potential semiconductor tariffs could suppress electronic product demand and reduce company revenue [1] - Due to inflation and potential tariff costs, TSMC expects profit margins from overseas factories to erode by 3-4 percentage points in the later years of the next five years [1] Group 2: Wafer Pricing and Currency Impact - TSMC is expected to increase wafer prices by 3%-5% globally due to strong demand for advanced processes and structural currency trends [2] - U.S. customers are reportedly locking in higher quotes for 4nm capacity at TSMC's U.S. factories, with plans to raise wafer prices by at least 10% [2] Group 3: 2nm Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to start mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of 2025, with significant demand anticipated [5] - The projected capacity for 2nm will be 10k wafers per month (kwpm) in 2024, increasing to 40-50 kwpm in 2025, and reaching 90 kwpm by the end of 2026 [5] - Major clients for 2nm technology will include Apple, AMD, and Intel, with Apple expected to adopt the technology in Q4 2025 [5][6] Group 4: AI and Cryptocurrency Demand - By the end of 2026, AI ASICs will begin utilizing 2nm capacity, with increased usage expected in 2027 [6] - The contribution of cloud AI semiconductor business to TSMC's revenue is projected to rise from 13% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, and further to 34% by 2027 [12] Group 5: B30 GPU and Market Demand - TSMC's Blackwell chip production is expected to align with the demand from NVL72 server rack shipments, with a projected shipment of 30,000 racks in 2025 [10] - The design of the Chinese version of the B30 GPU is anticipated to be similar to the RTX PRO 6000, with demand continuing to grow [12] - If the B30 can be sold in China, it could account for 20% of TSMC's revenue growth in 2026 [12]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's investment in the U.S. will not affect its existing projects in other regions, countering reports from The Wall Street Journal regarding delays in its Japan expansion due to U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Investment and Expansion - TSMC is taking U.S. tariff threats seriously and is reallocating resources to accelerate its investment in Arizona, where a large chip manufacturing center is under construction [3]. - The company has committed to a $100 billion investment to build three additional fabs, two integrated circuit assembly plants, and a research center [6]. Group 2: Japan Expansion - TSMC's first wafer fab in Kumamoto, Japan, began production at the end of last year, while the second fab's construction has been slightly delayed due to local transportation issues [5]. - Although there is no confirmed timeline for the second fab's construction, reports suggest it may face further delays [6]. Group 3: Global Operations - TSMC is also constructing a new fab in Dresden, Germany, which is expected to start production in 2027 [7]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is influenced by various factors, including customer demand, business opportunities, operational efficiency, government support, and overall costs [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates moderate growth in revenue in the second half of the year, with a healthy overall growth outlook for the year despite uncertainties related to tariffs and currency fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In May, the company's consolidated revenue was approximately 3.55 billion, a decrease of 3.38% month-over-month and a decrease of 0.56% year-over-year [1]. - For the first five months of the year, consolidated revenue reached approximately 19.17 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.57% [1]. - The company's net profit after tax for Q1 was approximately 2.41 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.7% and a year-over-year increase of 89.8%, marking a nine-quarter high [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Customer Demand - The company has observed a "dulling" effect of tariff uncertainties, with customers showing strong demand and placing urgent orders, particularly in the automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics sectors [2]. - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, customer orders from IDM and IC design companies have increased, indicating a positive market outlook [2]. Group 3: New Facility Developments - The construction of the 12-inch fab in Singapore is progressing well, with production expected to begin in Q1 2027, potentially ahead of schedule [3]. - The company plans to move equipment into the facility in Q4 and anticipates producing samples for customers in the second half of 2026 [3]. - There is significant interest from customers regarding the new facility, and recruitment for the plant is proceeding smoothly, attracting global talent [4].

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 25% tariff on semiconductor chips by the Trump administration could significantly harm the U.S. economy, leading to a projected GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years, which is approximately 4.8% of the GDP in the tenth year [1]. Economic Impact - The ITIF report estimates that the first year of the tariff could result in a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth [1]. - Cumulative tax revenue losses for the U.S. government could reach $165 billion over ten years, exceeding the revenue generated from the tariffs by several billion dollars [1]. Consumer Impact - The average American's standard of living is projected to decrease by $122 in the first year due to the tariff, accumulating to $4,208 over ten years [1]. Industry-Specific Effects - The increased cost of semiconductors will raise the expenses associated with training AI models, potentially diminishing U.S. competitiveness in the AI sector, while China may gain a leading position due to substantial subsidies in AI and semiconductor industries [1]. - In the automotive sector, the report indicates that the value of semiconductors in each vehicle could rise to $4,000 by 2030, an increase of 800% from 2020, which will particularly impact the electric vehicle industry that requires significantly more semiconductors [2]. - The U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry is still in its early stages, producing only 12% of the global semiconductor supply, which could lead to supply chain challenges if automotive manufacturers shift to domestic suppliers [2]. Supply Chain Considerations - TSMC's Arizona subsidiary has urged the U.S. government to carefully consider the implications of semiconductor tariffs on the overall supply chain and national security interests, seeking potential tax exemptions [2].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has issued a strong warning against potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs, stating that such measures could jeopardize its investment plans in Arizona, which amount to $165 billion [1][3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Investment Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in the U.S., which includes the construction of six advanced wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and one R&D center, marking the largest single foreign direct investment in U.S. history [3][4]. - The company emphasizes that its investment will create significant job opportunities, including 40,000 jobs during the construction phase and thousands of semiconductor manufacturing and R&D positions once operational [4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Tariffs - TSMC's letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce strongly suggests that any tariffs or import controls should not undermine U.S. national security goals, including TSMC's investment plans in Arizona [3][4]. - The letter is viewed as one of TSMC's most forceful responses to the potential tariffs, indicating that the company might reconsider its investment if tariffs are imposed [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Industry Reactions - TSMC's investment is expected to generate $200 billion in indirect economic benefits for the U.S. [4]. - The Taiwanese media and political figures have expressed concern over the government's response to TSMC's position, questioning the adequacy of support from the Taiwanese authorities in light of U.S. pressures [5][6][7].