Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,386, driven by concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and expectations of a rate cut in September [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish in the medium term, with expectations of a decline towards the $3,150 to $3,120 range, and a potential ultimate target of $3,000 to $2,950 [3] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - Current support levels for gold have been raised to the $3,350 area, with key resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 [6] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips around $3,365 and $3,350, while considering short positions near the upper resistance levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline after a strong rebound, with Brent crude down 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel and WTI down 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel [7] - Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain in an overall upward trend, supported by supply concerns and potential sanctions [7] - The technical analysis indicates a small arc bottom formation in oil prices, with a focus on the $65 resistance level and a potential bearish outlook if prices fall below $64 [8]

上周（8月18日至22日当周）国际金价高位震荡走强。当周现货黄金开盘3337.81美元／盎司，最高触及 3378.75美元／盎司，最低3311.43美元／盎司，报收3371.54美元／盎司，周度上涨35.81美元或1.07%， 周K线收阳。 分析来看，虽然俄乌冲突可能缓和的预期削弱了避险需求，但美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行 年会上的演讲强化市场对9月降息的预期，最终推动金价在上周最后一个交易日大幅拉涨，逆转此前几 个交易日的回落走势。 展望新的一周，金价走势除了继续关注俄乌以及中东等地缘局势影响外，还将重点关注未来美国经济数 据对于降息路径的影响。技术上看，金价接近三角整理尾声，或迎来向上突破契机。 鲍威尔"放鸽"金价大涨 但美联储仍存分歧 上周五（8月22日），美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会发表的讲话，强化了金价的周度涨 势。 上周初，随着市场对美联储9月大幅降息的预期降温，导致美元指数及美债收益率反弹，金价一度承 压，上周三，8月黄金价格一度跌至近三周低点。但随着美联储独立性疑问再起，金价盘中企稳反弹， 收盘逆转跌势。 随着鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍 ...

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

新华财经北京8月22日电周四（8月21日）国际金价震荡小幅收跌。当天现货黄金开盘3349.26美元，最 高3352.12美元，最低3324.95美元，收盘报3338.40美元，全天波幅27.17美元，下跌9.70美元，跌幅 0.29%，日K线呈现有下影线的小阴线形态，再次确认了短期低点。 技术上看，自4月22日创下历史新高一来，近四个月金价维持在3250美元-3450美元的宽幅区间震荡。虽 然短期金价连续下探3300美元后回升，强化了短期在该关口附近止跌的概率，但中长期趋势仍然需等待 区间破位。 另外注意到，金价仍然没有突破3355美元一线的阻力区，暂时还不能确认是否能形成持续上升的行情。 且从日K线技术指标来看，当前金价依然受到布林带中轨及60日均线的压制。这预示着金价只有向上突 破3355美元阻力，方可再次冲击3400美元整数目标。 基于此，短期对金价暂时以3320美元-3355美元区间震荡看待，耐心等待晚间全球央行年会释放出的信 号。下方支撑可关注3300美元整数关口，其后是3280美元。若金价跌破后者，多头或需要暂时离场。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） （文章来源：新华财经） 总结近期金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is easing, leading to a decline in international oil prices, while the actual production capacity of OPEC+ remains low, suggesting that the demand peak season may continue to support a rebound in oil prices [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are calming, contributing to a decrease in international oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has limited actual production capacity, which may affect market dynamics [1] - The upcoming demand peak season could provide upward pressure on oil prices, indicating potential for a rebound [1]

从更广泛的视角来看，虽然乌克兰危机形势出现新的变化，但全球其他地区的地缘局势是否会再起波 澜，仍需要进一步关注。鉴于地缘局势波动在近几年推高金价中的特殊作用，未来地缘局势是否会出现 再度紧张，将成为金价进一步上行亦或长期高位震荡的重要影响因素。但在新的地缘扰动出现之前，仍 需对金价的波动做好风险管理。 从更长的周期来看，美国联邦政府债务规模高企且在近年加速扩张，美元信用长期走弱的大背景下，黄 金仍具有长期配置的价值。中长期来看，若金价跌至每盎司2850美元至3000美元区间，将再度给出长期 配置的买入机会。（个人观点，仅供参考） 近期，随着美俄总统在阿拉斯加的会晤结束，俄乌冲突有可能进入新阶段，有望进入缓和期。这对于黄 金市场而言，下行压力明显，伦敦金价甚至有向每盎司3120美元的低点寻找支撑的可能。 不过，美联储降息预期可能给金价提供支撑。目前对美联储在年内余下议息会议上重启降息的预期强 烈，这可能打压美元指数进一步下跌至91-93的区间内，从而对金价上行构成支撑。不过，短期内金价 依托降息预期的反弹力度依然有限，中期向每盎司3000美元附近寻底的概率较大。 新华财经北京8月20日电国际金价在4月下旬创下历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced overall fluctuations, with gold prices showing a slight decline amid cautious market sentiment ahead of key geopolitical meetings and the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference [2][3]. Market Analysis - As of the close on August 18, 2025 December gold futures fell by $3.7 to $3378 per ounce, marking a decrease of 0.11%. During the trading session, gold prices briefly reached the $3400 mark [2][3]. - The market is closely monitoring the bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as the Jackson Hole conference where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak. There is a prevailing cautious sentiment, leading to a lack of clear upward or downward drivers for gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Current expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, with a 16.9% chance of maintaining rates and an 83.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Some analysts suggest that there is speculation about a potential 50 basis point cut, which could significantly boost gold prices if realized [3][4]. Silver Market - The September silver futures price closed up by 4.5 cents at $38.065 per ounce, reflecting a 0.12% increase. The December silver futures price also rose by 4 cents to $38.560 per ounce, with a 0.1% increase [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,333 per ounce, following a significant drop of 0.6% to $3,335.25 per ounce on Thursday, with futures down 0.7% to $3,383.20 [1] - The recent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, has dampened hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market is evident, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, which supports the notion that the economy remains robust [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting Gold - The rise in inflation expectations and the decline in rate cut expectations have led to a 0.5% increase in the U.S. dollar index, reaching 98.25, marking the largest single-day gain in over two weeks [5] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year yield up 5.3 basis points to 4.293% and the 2-year yield up 5.4 basis points to 3.741%, further diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [5] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may face tough choices between combating inflation and supporting the economy [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is anticipated to influence the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict [8][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies are actively working to prevent any agreements that could jeopardize Ukraine's security during the U.S.-Russia summit [9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - In the short term, gold prices may continue to face pressure due to technical signals turning slightly bearish and the cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [11] - However, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical situations continue to provide support for gold in the medium to long term [11]

短期盘面再次转弱，很遗憾的是周三的见底，并未给昨天的上涨带来惊喜，昨日早盘在冲击3375之后开始掉头转 弱。尤其是隔夜跌破3340后，一小时整体格局再次重回下台阶，那也就是说今天弱势格局还会延续，但是大概率会 先反弹然后再下跌。那么今天等空看回落也就是主要思路了！ 因为从日线来讲，决定中期多空转折的关键是在3270这里，如果这里一旦失守，则意味着连续震荡了四个月的黄金 将会出现中长期的顶部信号，进而言之，熊市开启！ 当下来讲，短期上方需要关注3350或3355这里，日内可依托这一区域为防守或在此区域之下，小级别出现顶部信号 时可以去空！而3370则是决定多空转折的关键！ 但是，基于当下的关税贸易，地缘局势，通胀以及下半年美联储可能出现的三次降息的前提下，我认为推动黄金长 期上涨的动力和因素依然存在。所以我说，中长期格局来讲，3270之上，黄金的跌幅非常有限，相反，一旦向上破 位，那么压抑了四个月的多头动能将会迸发！ 来源：张扬超说 下方可以去尝试关注3310，极限应该是3300一线。当然，如果近期的美俄会晤顺利达成某些协议的话，不排除黄金 会再次测试前期的低点3280或者3270区域。 那么基于这一点，我们是 ...