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ING:美联储观望立场或持续至9月 届时降息幅度有望达50个基点
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 06:28
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing a robust economic expansion and a stable labor market, while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation [2][3] - ING suggests that the Fed's "wait-and-see" approach may continue for several policy meetings, as officials assess the impact of government trade policies on inflation amidst a strong labor market [3][4] - Consumer and business confidence has plummeted to levels consistent with historical recessions, raising concerns for the Fed, which may lead to a delayed but potentially larger rate cut later in the year [4][5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the Fed's announcement with a slight decline in interest rates and a steepening yield curve, indicating readiness to address rising unemployment while tolerating inflation risks [5][6] - There were no substantial comments regarding the balance sheet reduction process, with the Fed maintaining a net buying position in government bonds, while the monthly cap for mortgage-backed securities remains at $35 billion [5][6] - The foreign exchange market showed limited reaction to the Fed's statements, with the dollar weakening slightly, influenced more by concerns over rising unemployment and inflation rather than a clear hawkish or dovish stance from the Fed [7][8]
【期货热点追踪】黄金价格上涨,美联储对通胀和失业发出警告,印度与巴基斯坦冲突升级,机构表示今年下半年价格达到4000美元大关?
news flash· 2025-05-08 01:30
Group 1 - Gold prices are rising, with forecasts suggesting they could reach $4000 in the second half of the year [1] - The Federal Reserve has issued warnings regarding inflation and unemployment [1] - Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating, which may impact market dynamics [1]
凌晨,美联储挽救了美股,却给了特朗普重重一击
凤凰网财经· 2025-05-07 22:44
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [1][3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to take action and will not preemptively lower rates in response to potential tariff impacts [1][3] - The uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, with both inflation and unemployment risks rising [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that there may be three rate cuts within the year, starting with a 25 basis point cut in July, followed by additional cuts in September and October [5][6] - The current labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which provides a buffer for the Fed to maintain interest rates [5][6] - Powell criticized President Trump's tariff policies, suggesting they could lead to economic slowdown and long-term inflation [3][5] Group 3 - The market reacted to the Fed's decision with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7%, S&P 500 by 0.43%, and Nasdaq by 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google dropping over 7% and Nvidia rising over 3% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.34%, indicating a decline in popular Chinese stocks [1]
美联储决议声明对比:关税战后首次会议敲响风险和不确定性警钟
news flash· 2025-05-07 22:07
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, but the statement released after the meeting shows significant changes compared to March, highlighting the impact of net export fluctuations, increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, and rising risks of inflation and unemployment [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid rising economic uncertainties [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized the need for patience regarding interest rate cuts, considering the increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and tariff measures pushed by President Trump [1] - The statement from the Federal Reserve now includes references to the volatility of net exports and the associated risks to the economic outlook [1]
鲍威尔:无法立即判定通胀与失业哪个更关键
news flash· 2025-05-07 18:48
Core Viewpoint - Powell stated that it is currently unclear which issue, inflation or unemployment, is more critical to address first, as both risks have increased [1] Summary by Categories Inflation - Powell emphasized that the risk of higher inflation has become a significant concern [1] Unemployment - The rising unemployment rate is also a growing worry, and its impact needs to be assessed [1] Decision-Making - Powell concluded that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions regarding which issue should take precedence [1]
失业年轻人的新标配:一周三刷迪士尼
后浪研究所· 2025-04-10 09:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how unemployed young people are increasingly visiting Disney parks as a form of escapism and social interaction, finding joy and comfort in the environment despite their joblessness [2][20]. Group 1: Young People and Disney - Many young individuals from various professions, including lawyers and HR personnel, are sharing their experiences of visiting Disney after losing their jobs, indicating a trend of seeking solace in the park [2][19]. - The affordability of visiting Disney, such as the low cost of parking and the option to bring food, makes it an attractive option for those on a budget [3][11]. Group 2: Activities and Experiences - Unemployed individuals are engaging in various activities at Disney, such as self-study, fitness, and socializing, rather than just focusing on rides [10][23]. - The park serves as a creative outlet, with some individuals documenting their experiences on social media, leading to increased engagement and a sense of community [23][24]. Group 3: Emotional Impact - Disney is perceived as a refuge where individuals can escape their anxieties about job searching and societal expectations, allowing them to express themselves freely [22][20]. - The environment at Disney fosters a sense of happiness and relaxation, contrasting sharply with the stress of job hunting and previous work environments [10][19].